SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by iakovos11 on Jul 2, 2024 9:18:38 GMT -5
I think Pivetta might not be 100% since his IL stint
|
|
|
Post by chaimtime on Jul 2, 2024 9:40:08 GMT -5
Bello is going through similar stuff as a lot of guys who make the 2nd year jump. I'll give him a pass. We all knew that the success in April with the rotation where everyone looked like prime Nolan Ryan wasn't sustainable, but I think overall you can look at Crawford, Houck, and Pivetta and see some kind of improvement. I'm not sure if I would say the rotation is worse than last year based on that. How do you look at Crawford and Pivetta as improved when they’ve both gotten worse in nearly every metric? Pivetta is close to flat on the year, but has especially fallen off relative to his second half last year (again, just to be clear, not blaming Bailey). Crawford is pitching an inning more per start with only a modest drop-off in performance. That’s a net improvement in my eyes. Let’s see how he does after some rest at the ASB. If he comes out strong and has a lucky matchup or two in September against a team that’s out of the race and fielding a AAA lineup, his rate stats will probably be pretty in line with last season. As mentioned above, seems like Pivetta is still dealing with something physically. Might just be struggling to find his mechanics after the injury and layoff.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 2, 2024 9:44:44 GMT -5
How do you look at Crawford and Pivetta as improved when they’ve both gotten worse in nearly every metric? Pivetta is close to flat on the year, but has especially fallen off relative to his second half last year (again, just to be clear, not blaming Bailey). Crawford is pitching an inning more per start with only a modest drop-off in performance. That’s a net improvement in my eyes. Let’s see how he does after some rest at the ASB. If he comes out strong and has a lucky matchup or two in September against a team that’s out of the race and fielding a AAA lineup, his rate stats will probably be pretty in line with last season. As mentioned above, seems like Pivetta is still dealing with something physically. Might just be struggling to find his mechanics after the injury and layoff. I think the "drop off" all but disappears if you correct for the fact that he spent much of 2023 in the bullpen, too; his starter stats are virtually identical.
As for Pivetta, he has been with the team for four years now. He has either one or three more months with the team. He has spent basically his entire tenure looking great for stretches - several innings, sometimes several starts - and then blowing up. I have come to accept that this is who he is.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Jul 2, 2024 10:05:11 GMT -5
How do you look at Crawford and Pivetta as improved when they’ve both gotten worse in nearly every metric? Pivetta is close to flat on the year, but has especially fallen off relative to his second half last year (again, just to be clear, not blaming Bailey). Crawford is pitching an inning more per start with only a modest drop-off in performance. That’s a net improvement in my eyes. Let’s see how he does after some rest at the ASB. If he comes out strong and has a lucky matchup or two in September against a team that’s out of the race and fielding a AAA lineup, his rate stats will probably be pretty in line with last season. As mentioned above, seems like Pivetta is still dealing with something physically. Might just be struggling to find his mechanics after the injury and layoff. He is pitching more, but even as a starter he’s much worse the first time through the order. So it’s not like his drop off is caused by going longer, he’s worse at the beginning of games. Also, he had a crazy strong start to the season but has faded since which makes me weary of a novelty effect to the changes they implemented that has gone away. Anyways, I think you can maybe argue he’s about even year over year with normal fluctuations and career movement. My point is just that I don’t see evidence of the magical Bailey touch that many thought there was.
|
|
|
Post by chaimtime on Jul 2, 2024 10:07:19 GMT -5
Crawford is pitching an inning more per start with only a modest drop-off in performance. That’s a net improvement in my eyes. Let’s see how he does after some rest at the ASB. If he comes out strong and has a lucky matchup or two in September against a team that’s out of the race and fielding a AAA lineup, his rate stats will probably be pretty in line with last season. As mentioned above, seems like Pivetta is still dealing with something physically. Might just be struggling to find his mechanics after the injury and layoff. I think the "drop off" all but disappears if you correct for the fact that he spent much of 2023 in the bullpen, too; his starter stats are virtually identical.
As for Pivetta, he has been with the team for four years now. He has either one or three more months with the team. He has spent basically his entire tenure looking great for stretches - several innings, sometimes several starts - and then blowing up. I have come to accept that this is who he is.
To be fair on Pivetta, last season was his longest stretch of everything clicking by far, and this blowup period seems less bad than they’ve been in the past. I think there’s still a pretty good chance he’s a dependable, playoff-caliber starter the rest of the season.
|
|
|
Post by chaimtime on Jul 2, 2024 10:23:25 GMT -5
Crawford is pitching an inning more per start with only a modest drop-off in performance. That’s a net improvement in my eyes. Let’s see how he does after some rest at the ASB. If he comes out strong and has a lucky matchup or two in September against a team that’s out of the race and fielding a AAA lineup, his rate stats will probably be pretty in line with last season. As mentioned above, seems like Pivetta is still dealing with something physically. Might just be struggling to find his mechanics after the injury and layoff. He is pitching more, but even as a starter he’s much worse the first time through the order. So it’s not like his drop off is caused by going longer, he’s worse at the beginning of games. Also, he had a crazy strong start to the season but has faded since which makes me weary of a novelty effect to the changes they implemented that has gone away. Anyways, I think you can maybe argue he’s about even year over year with normal fluctuations and career movement. My point is just that I don’t see evidence of the magical Bailey touch that many thought there was. I mean, getting hit hard at the start of the game could be pretty easily explained by trying to dial it back at the start of his outing so he has more in the tank in the fifth and sixth. It could be explained by being tired and not having his best stuff right now, so his early-game strategy isn’t working quite as well. The only thing that’s really standing out first time through the order is a spike in home run rate—same with his June numbers, which are otherwise quite a bit better under the hood than earlier in the season. Either way, seems like something that can be fixed, so I’m not too worried going forward. Seems like the one pitch he’s having trouble with this year is the slider. Probably something that can be worked on in the pitching lab during the break. The pitch modeling metrics still really love him and think he’s taken a step forward, for what it’s worth.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Jul 2, 2024 10:33:28 GMT -5
He is pitching more, but even as a starter he’s much worse the first time through the order. So it’s not like his drop off is caused by going longer, he’s worse at the beginning of games. Also, he had a crazy strong start to the season but has faded since which makes me weary of a novelty effect to the changes they implemented that has gone away. Anyways, I think you can maybe argue he’s about even year over year with normal fluctuations and career movement. My point is just that I don’t see evidence of the magical Bailey touch that many thought there was. I mean, getting hit hard at the start of the game could be pretty easily explained by trying to dial it back at the start of his outing so he has more in the tank in the fifth and sixth. It could be explained by being tired and not having his best stuff right now, so his early-game strategy isn’t working quite as well. The only thing that’s really standing out first time through the order is a spike in home run rate—same with his June numbers, which are otherwise quite a bit better under the hood than earlier in the season. Either way, seems like something that can be fixed, so I’m not too worried going forward. Seems like the one pitch he’s having trouble with this year is the slider. Probably something that can be worked on in the pitching lab during the break. The pitch modeling metrics still really love him and think he’s taken a step forward, for what it’s worth. I don’t disagree with any of your thoughts on Crawford. None of this disputes my actual argument though - there’s no evidence of Bailey being a pitcher miracle worker, which was always an unfair expectation anyways.
|
|
|
Post by chaimtime on Jul 2, 2024 11:18:39 GMT -5
I mean, getting hit hard at the start of the game could be pretty easily explained by trying to dial it back at the start of his outing so he has more in the tank in the fifth and sixth. It could be explained by being tired and not having his best stuff right now, so his early-game strategy isn’t working quite as well. The only thing that’s really standing out first time through the order is a spike in home run rate—same with his June numbers, which are otherwise quite a bit better under the hood than earlier in the season. Either way, seems like something that can be fixed, so I’m not too worried going forward. Seems like the one pitch he’s having trouble with this year is the slider. Probably something that can be worked on in the pitching lab during the break. The pitch modeling metrics still really love him and think he’s taken a step forward, for what it’s worth. I don’t disagree with any of your thoughts on Crawford. None of this disputes my actual argument though - there’s no evidence of Bailey being a pitcher miracle worker, which was always an unfair expectation anyways. Fair, the idea that one man can simply make bad pitchers good was always silly. But I do think there have been substantial changes to how the team approaches pitching—starting under Bloom and continuing under Breslow—that have been effective. “Fixing” players who haven’t quite been able to meet their potential is one of the key traits of good teams these days, and I think the Red Sox have invested a lot into getting better at it. Just want to note that the post I initially replied to said “how do you look at Crawford as improved,” which I don’t think is all that difficult a position to defend. Consistently going 6 innings, rather than occasionally finishing 5, is such a substantial improvement both from a player value and team building perspective that his rate numbers can regress quite a bit before I’d say he’s taken a step back.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Jul 2, 2024 11:25:09 GMT -5
I don’t disagree with any of your thoughts on Crawford. None of this disputes my actual argument though - there’s no evidence of Bailey being a pitcher miracle worker, which was always an unfair expectation anyways. Fair, the idea that one man can simply make bad pitchers good was always silly. But I do think there have been substantial changes to how the team approaches pitching—starting under Bloom and continuing under Breslow—that have been effective. “Fixing” players who haven’t quite been able to meet their potential is one of the key traits of good teams these days, and I think the Red Sox have invested a lot into getting better at it. Just want to note that the post I initially replied to said “how do you look at Crawford as improved,” which I don’t think is all that difficult a position to defend. Consistently going 6 innings, rather than occasionally finishing 5, is such a substantial improvement both from a player value and team building perspective that his rate numbers can regress quite a bit before I’d say he’s taken a step back. Its a fair enough point the rate numbers were closer than I remembered, though I still think we need to see where he goes given he was so much stronger than at the start of the season. I agree that the pitching development has made great progress and that it started under Bloom. It’s just there was this belief in a step change, and for the first month or so it looked like that was happening, but now the only MLB guy with a step change improvement is Houck and the rest kind of are who they are/have been/are on a normal path of progression. And that’s okay too.
|
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 1,334
|
Post by asm18 on Jul 2, 2024 12:38:52 GMT -5
The question of Eovaldi’s vesting option/availability at the deadline has come up a few times. Rangers SBNation site “ Lone Star Ball” phrased it this way:
“Eovaldi has a player option for 2025 that vests if he throws 83 more innings this year. That player option is for $20 million, and the chances of Eovaldi picking up that option if he is healthy enough to throw 83 more innings this year are about the same as the chances of Michael Young voluntarily having a clown at his birthday party, so we can effectively treat Eovaldi as being gone after 2024.”
As they rightly note, even if Nate pitches enough innings for his option to vest (and 83 innings over the second half is no sure bet), it would make no sense for him to opt in - he could certainly make more than 1 year 20 mil on the open market. And has no QO attached.
|
|
|
Post by pappyman99 on Jul 2, 2024 15:28:00 GMT -5
Just for fun: if you were Craig Breslow and were trading for any of these current Sox players as rentals in an alternate universe where they were on another team, what SoxProspects would you offer for them? (Or if you prefer - what current SoxProspects would you want in return if you were the opposing GM) Tyler O'Neill: 242 PA's, 16 HR's, 28 RBI's, .252/.347/.529. 135 wRC+. 1.4 fWAR Kenley Jansen:28.1 innings, 33 k's, 11 bb's - 2.22 ERA (3.12 xERA, 2.10 FIP), 16 saves, 1.1 fWAR. Nick Pivetta:61.2 innings, 68 K's, 16 BB's - 4.52 ERA (3.92 xERA, 4.47 FIP), .6 fWAR Chris Martin:25.1 innings, 28 k's, 4 bb's - 3.55 ERA (3.35 xERA, 3.47 FIP), .2 fWAR Might lend some perspective of the trade values of these rentals/prospects we might send out. I think Ematz had very similar thoughts Lugo for O’Neill Sandlin and Yorke for Pivetta Meidroth and Romero for Jansen Jordan and Portes for Martin?
|
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 1,334
|
Post by asm18 on Jul 3, 2024 12:11:55 GMT -5
Per Cotillo at MassLive:
“A couple good weeks could lead to chief baseball officer Craig Breslow trying to reinforce his club for the stretch run, with one source identifying starting pitching as the most pressing area of need if the Red Sox do buy. A slump could lead to veterans like Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Tyler O’Neill and Nick Pivetta being shipped out.”
Seems straightforward enough.
|
|
|
Post by seamus on Jul 3, 2024 12:17:12 GMT -5
I do have a hard time seeing both Jansen and Martin being on the Sox in August given that they probably don't factor into the team's 2025 plans and "proven" relievers can sometimes yield silly returns. Unless Yoshida goes nuclear and there just aren't any ABs available at DH or COF, I have a hard time seeing TON traded unless the wheels fall off, though.
|
|
|
Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jul 3, 2024 13:05:23 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by carmenfanzone on Jul 3, 2024 13:22:28 GMT -5
Not that he was a desireable target, but the Civali from the Rays to the Brewers trade may be a kick start to the starting pitcher movement. Flaherty missing a start with back discomfort may shorten the SP trade pool as well. Breslow may need to roll the dice and act soon if he does in fact want a starter. Agree. I have crossed Flaherty off the list of starters I would trade for. Also, the sooner the better on trading for a starter both because they will be in short supply and because the sooner yo get them the more starts they can make for you this year. On another note, just saw Tim Anderson was released. Can he still play a solid defensive shortstop? If the Red sox picked him up, put him at short and had Hamilton and Gonzalez at second, would that shore up our infield defense enough to make it worthwhile?
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 5,670
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Jul 3, 2024 13:27:28 GMT -5
Not that he was a desireable target, but the Civali from the Rays to the Brewers trade may be a kick start to the starting pitcher movement. Flaherty missing a start with back discomfort may shorten the SP trade pool as well. Breslow may need to roll the dice and act soon if he does in fact want a starter. Agree. I have crossed Flaherty off the list of starters I would trade for. Also, the sooner the better on trading for a starter both because they will be in short supply and because the sooner yo get them the more starts they can make for you this year. On another note, just saw Tim Anderson was released. Can he still play a solid defensive shortstop? If the Red sox picked him up, put him at short and had Hamilton and Gonzalez at second, would that shore up our infield defense enough to make it worthwhile? To answer the Anderson part, no absolutely not. He's cooked. He'd be a severe downgrade on their current options.
|
|
|
Post by seamus on Jul 3, 2024 13:31:43 GMT -5
Tim Anderson had a good career - it's too bad his best season was the shortened 2020 campaign, which people (mostly rightly) tend to discount. Hard to think he's not finished at this point, though. A sad reminder that most athletes age like milk rather than wine.
|
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 1,334
|
Post by asm18 on Jul 3, 2024 13:43:58 GMT -5
Does anyone want to advise the Astros that they could move the expiring contracts of Alex Bregman, Ryan Pressley, and Justin Verlander for future assets and and still be in the mix for the 3rd Wild Card?
To Cora’s point a week and a half ago about how he saw the deadline - sure, the Sox could very well flip pieces around (Jansen, O’Neill, Pivetta) and not dramatically make the team better or worse… but the team directly behind us in the standings doesn’t appear inclined to offer us the same courtesy.
|
|
|
Post by threeifbaerga on Jul 3, 2024 13:48:01 GMT -5
Does anyone want to advise the Astros that they could move the expiring contracts of Alex Bregman, Ryan Pressley, and Justin Verlander for future assets and and still be in the mix for the 3rd Wild Card? To Cora’s point a week and a half ago about how he saw the deadline - sure, the Sox could very well flip pieces around (Jansen, O’Neill, Pivetta) and not dramatically make the team better or worse… but the team directly behind us in the standings doesn’t appear inclined to offer us the same courtesy. As always with tise conversation I believe we're missing the context here - the Astros are reaching the end of their contention window and it behooves them to take one last crack at it for Bregman, Altuve, Verlander, Turner, etc. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are just entering theirs. You can't just ignore that. That said I will bang the drum for a Jack Flaherty trade until he gets traded or the deadline passes.
|
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 1,334
|
Post by asm18 on Jul 3, 2024 14:30:21 GMT -5
Does anyone want to advise the Astros that they could move the expiring contracts of Alex Bregman, Ryan Pressley, and Justin Verlander for future assets and and still be in the mix for the 3rd Wild Card? To Cora’s point a week and a half ago about how he saw the deadline - sure, the Sox could very well flip pieces around (Jansen, O’Neill, Pivetta) and not dramatically make the team better or worse… but the team directly behind us in the standings doesn’t appear inclined to offer us the same courtesy. As always with tise conversation I believe we're missing the context here - the Astros are reaching the end of their contention window and it behooves them to take one last crack at it for Bregman, Altuve, Verlander, Turner, etc. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are just entering theirs. You can't just ignore that. That said I will bang the drum for a Jack Flaherty trade until he gets traded or the deadline passes. Are they though? Yordan Alvarez is 27 years old and locked up forever. Kyle Tucker is also 27 - though has a year and a half left until free agency. Framber Valdez has a 1.5 years left of control. Jeremy Peña, Yainer Diaz, Jake Myers, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco are all pre-arb. Altuve is locked up until his retirement years. Like I’m not going to argue they at the same point of the contention cycle as the Red Sox are (who have some of their most talented players still in Double A), but it’s not like all their best players are about to retire.
|
|
|
Post by threeifbaerga on Jul 3, 2024 15:05:21 GMT -5
As always with tise conversation I believe we're missing the context here - the Astros are reaching the end of their contention window and it behooves them to take one last crack at it for Bregman, Altuve, Verlander, Turner, etc. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are just entering theirs. You can't just ignore that. That said I will bang the drum for a Jack Flaherty trade until he gets traded or the deadline passes. Are they though? Yordan Alvarez is 27 years old and locked up forever. Kyle Tucker is also 27 - though has a year and a half left until free agency. Framber Valdez has a 1.5 years left of control. Jeremy Peña, Yainer Diaz, Jake Myers, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco are all pre-arb. Altuve is locked up until his retirement years. Like I’m not going to argue they at the same point of the contention cycle as the Red Sox are (who have some of their most talented players still in Double A), but it’s not like all their best players are about to retire. I mean... Yes. Outside of Yordan and Tucker you just listed off a bunch of okay players, mostly n their late 20s. Their impact players, the ones that make them contenders (outside of Yordan and Tucker) are aging out. They're at the end of their window.
|
|
tedf
Rookie
Posts: 146
|
Post by tedf on Jul 3, 2024 15:09:36 GMT -5
Like I’m not going to argue they at the same point of the contention cycle as the Red Sox are (who have some of their most talented players still in Double A), but it’s not like all their best players are about to retire. In assessing something like this, perhaps begin by looking at where they stand relative to the rest of the league? Over the last year and a half, they have the tenth best record in the majors. That's in the playoff picture, but it isn't far from falling out.
Then consider how much production comes from players who have not yet hit their ceiling vs. how much comes from players who are 30+ and on the downside of their careers. As with most contending teams, most of their talent has already peaked -- even if they do have some who are mid-career. If half the players on the roster decline a little, and none improve, then it is a net loss.
Then subtract what they stand to lose in free agency, vs. the talent they might acquire by reinvesting that money. Bregman and Verlander are significant losses, but they are also very highly paid. If that money is reinvested it could bring in fresh talent.
Then account for the willingness of the team to continue spending at their current level. Their payroll jumped a LOT this year, and at least some people seem to think they will try to drop back under the luxury tax again.
Then add whatever they stand to gain from the minors. Bloss was rushed to the majors, might contribute more next year, but I'm not seeing any other top talent ready to break in?
Too many unknowns to really evaluate at this point in the season. I suspect it comes down to their willingness to maintain/increase payroll over 2024 levels. But unless I'm missing something big, I don't see that they have enough talent on the roster or coming up from the minors to get back under the luxury tax without dropping a notch on the field. And their on-field performance is already sufficiently marginal that even a modest drop may knock them out of the playoff picture.
|
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 1,334
|
Post by asm18 on Jul 3, 2024 15:29:10 GMT -5
Are they though? Yordan Alvarez is 27 years old and locked up forever. Kyle Tucker is also 27 - though has a year and a half left until free agency. Framber Valdez has a 1.5 years left of control. Jeremy Peña, Yainer Diaz, Jake Myers, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco are all pre-arb. Altuve is locked up until his retirement years. Like I’m not going to argue they at the same point of the contention cycle as the Red Sox are (who have some of their most talented players still in Double A), but it’s not like all their best players are about to retire. I mean... Yes. Outside of Yordan and Tucker you just listed off a bunch of okay players, mostly n their late 20s. Their impact players, the ones that make them contenders (outside of Yordan and Tucker) are aging out. They're at the end of their window. I mean those are literally… their two best players? It’s like if in the mid-2000’s we were like, “well sure we have David Ortiz and Manny, but we just lost Johnny Damon and Trot Nixon and Pedro and Nomar… guess the window’s closing.” But my broader point was that the Astros don’t plan to get at cute at the deadline (as Rosenthal discussed in greater depth above). Just keep that in mind as we’re parsing out whether to buy or sell or do a mix of both in 4 weeks, as they are the team literally directly behind us…
|
|
|
Post by kwodes on Jul 3, 2024 15:40:04 GMT -5
I mean... Yes. Outside of Yordan and Tucker you just listed off a bunch of okay players, mostly n their late 20s. Their impact players, the ones that make them contenders (outside of Yordan and Tucker) are aging out. They're at the end of their window. I mean those are literally… their two best players? It’s like if in the mid-2000’s we were like, “well sure we have David Ortiz and Manny, but we just lost Johnny Damon and Trot Nixon and Pedro and Nomar… guess the window’s closing.” But my broader point was that the Astros don’t plan to get at cute at the deadline (as Rosenthal discussed in greater depth above). Just keep that in mind as we’re parsing out whether to buy or sell or do a mix of both in 4 weeks, as they are the team literally directly behind us… in my mind, Astros are winning the West. The Mariners are the team I'd look at as direct competition.
|
|
|
Post by soxin8 on Jul 3, 2024 15:42:47 GMT -5
He's my personal #1 target. Cost shouldn't be prohibitive and he's young enough that if he's successful you can try to extend him/resign him in the winter. MLB trade rumors identified him as the best starting pitcher likely to be traded at the deadline. If there are several teams in on the bidding, I think Detroit will get a couple very good prospects in the deal if Flaherty's back issues are not serious. Another issue you never can tell about is what the other teams opinion is of the players you are offering. When the Royals traded Beltran in 2004, they actually preferred Houston's offer of Mark Teahan and John Buck to Youkilis and Shoppach. I remember Theo saying he thought the Sox made the better offer and he was right. www.royalsreview.com/2013/1/24/3890858/ten-trades-in-royals-history-the-team-should-have-made
|
|
|