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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Jul 1, 2024 12:56:45 GMT -5
Anyone thinking Crochet is a sleeper flying under the radar who can be had for a package of Nathan Hickey, Nick Sogard, Niko Kavadas and Richard Fitts can put that thought on hold. There's also the fact Crochet is a converted reliever coming off TJ surgery and has already passed his career high in innings pitched. My guess is the White Sox will be looking for younger prospects so a package like Anthony, Perales, Mayer, Cespedes, Elmer Rodriguez and Ovis Portis would probably be required. www.forbes.com/sites/danepstein/2024/07/01/the-chicago-white-sox-could-trade-strikeout-machine-garrett-crochet/"There has been a sea change in the top tier of pitching across MLB. None of the ten best pitchers in WAR were anywhere near last year’s top ten list. The greatest of all might be Chicago White Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet, and he could be on the move by the end of the month.
According to a report by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, 15 teams have already requested a price check on Crochet." I think (especially on this site) the return required for players at the trade deadline is greatly exaggerated. Look back at past trades that are similar to what we're looking for this year. For example: Eovaldi cost us Jaleen Beeks (not saying Nate still costs that), Schwarber cost a guy who's not even in baseball as far as i can find. Very often, these trades include players under AA and fringy guys a team might think it can tweak. Id look at Efflin, Eovaldi, Diamond Backs might look to move Montgomery, then try for some cost controlled guys, but finding a match there might be hard. There are planty of ways to add to this team without trading the Fab 4 (I include Campbell). Id think Lugo's stock is up, Yorke, pretty much anyone from our 2B list, and then some hard throwing relief prospects. Maybe look for a team thats quantity over quality. Do that or perhaps look to trade Martin or Kenley for prospects that can be flipped. I wouldn't trade anything that this years team cant withstand. Its never a sure thing to make the playoffs even with stars, when you have a roster this close you should take advantage. A RH bat, a mid-rotation starter, another set up man.
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Post by kwodes on Jul 1, 2024 13:01:13 GMT -5
Good grief, there is absolutely nothing on that Oakland team they can even spin off unless they decide to try to cash in on Mason Miller. Rooker screams trade candidate to me. About to enter arb, having a career year. With how much people want a righty hitter around here I'm surprised his name hasn't come up more (though I personally wouldn't go for it I could see a scenario where it would make sense). strictly bat-wise, he's a great fit. I have done zero research regarding his defensive value though. 1B/COF I believe only
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Post by rickasadoorian on Jul 1, 2024 13:01:39 GMT -5
The international draft for <$100k. Seems like that's what the Sox have been doing lately, anyway. You are better off signing 10 Brayan Bello's than 1 Jay Groome or Anderson Espinoza, at least imo. They are lottery tickets. The more you have, the better your odds. As for Crochet... he's interesting. He skipped the minors all together and only has 186.2 pro innings on his arm. One could argue he's already got TJS out of the way too. No idea what someone like him gets. Still just 25 years old and cost controlled. Barely any track record. I'd be willing to move a package of something like Abreu, Yorke and Bleis. Fitts too. I don't think it would be close to enough, but it is considerably better than the Fitts, Nathan, Nick and Niko pupu platter. T doubt anyone sees the latter 3 as anything other than AAAA players. I don't think I'd include one of the big 3 and Perales isn't going anywhere. Statistically, pitchers who have had TJS are more likely to have a second TJS than a pitcher who has not had elbow surgery is to have their first TJS. Not even to mention the lower rate (but ever increasing) of return to form for second TJS players. TJS can only ever be considered a demerit. Not to say do not trade for Crochet (I wouldn't but can see why people would), but having a previous surgery is not one of those reasons. All that to be said if the White Sox accept Abreu, Yorke, Bleis, and Fitts, I will go pick up Crochet from Chicago myself. Yeah, I think TJS is always a bad thing too but for whatever reason, that argument is made from time to time.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 1, 2024 13:02:01 GMT -5
Genuine question...where do people propose starting pitchers come from? I get the general sense that the same people who say you can't draft pitchers because they are too risky are the same people who say you can't trade for starting pitching because it's to expensive and risky and are the same people who say you can't get starting pitching in free agency because it's too expensive and risky. It seems like you have to pay the piper at some point, so when exactly is the right time to do it? Personally, for this team right now a trade seems the best route to improve short-term, but interested to hear what others think. I think they should be doing exactly what they've been doing:
1) The occasional first round draft pick, though these should be rare (Houck) 2) Go nuts with the mid-round draft picks (Crawford, Walter, Murphy, Drohan, etc. etc.) 3) IFA (Bello, Perales, Gonzalez, etc.) 4) Low-stakes trades (Pivetta, Winckowski, Sandlin, Fitts, etc.) 5) Rule 5 (Whitlock, Slaten) 6) Mid-tier free agents on short-term deals (Wacha, Hill, Giolito, etc.) 7) The occasional top-tier addition through either trade or free agency (Price, Sale)
As you can see they've had some success by each of these paths, and it seems to be working out well for them. That's despite the fact that, due to Giolito's injury and the Sale trade, they've gotten nothing out of (6) and (7) this year. I think this offseason would be a good time to go for (7).
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jul 1, 2024 14:12:46 GMT -5
Regarding our unsigned free agents.
1) Pivetta I would keep and make the QO. That way we could end up with a valuable 2nd round pick or if Pivetta accepts only a one year commitment to him. 2) O'Neil is fun, hits some bombs, but he is expendable. If a team sees a fit and we could get an interesting prospect I would do it. 3) Jansen and Martin are not expendable in my mind, regardless of where the Sox are in the race. A solid back end of the pen is so important for holding leads. The still young core of starting pitchers need to have the lead protected when they come out of games. If Liam Hendricks is himself, then we know who the 2025 closer will be.
As far as buying this deadline, I still would want it to be for player(s) that can help in 2024 and at least 2025 as well. Diaz from the Rays is the best idea I have seen floated recently, but the Rays are hanging in there so far.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 1, 2024 14:41:45 GMT -5
Regarding our unsigned free agents. 1) Pivetta I would keep and make the QO. That way we could end up with a valuable 2nd round pick or if Pivetta accepts only a one year commitment to him. 2) O'Neil is fun, hits some bombs, but he is expendable. If a team sees a fit and we could get an interesting prospect I would do it. 3) Jansen and Martin are not expendable in my mind, regardless of where the Sox are in the race. A solid back end of the pen is so important for holding leads. The still young core of starting pitchers need to have the lead protected when they come out of games. If Liam Hendricks is himself, then we know who the 2025 closer will be. As far as buying this deadline, I still would want it to be for player(s) that can help in 2024 and at least 2025 as well. Diaz from the Rays is the best idea I have seen floated recently, but the Rays are hanging in there so far. In response to your point #1: I'd estimate it would be a 4th rounder, because I still (naively) believe they will go over the LTT next year. I keep looking at the roster and can't see both O'Neil and Ref on it after the deadline. Same with Hamilton and Valdez. Same with Jansen and Martin. One of each seems likely to be moved. The buy/sell approach seems to line up well with the roster construction.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 1, 2024 14:44:25 GMT -5
Regarding our unsigned free agents. 1) Pivetta I would keep and make the QO. That way we could end up with a valuable 2nd round pick or if Pivetta accepts only a one year commitment to him. 2) O'Neil is fun, hits some bombs, but he is expendable. If a team sees a fit and we could get an interesting prospect I would do it. 3) Jansen and Martin are not expendable in my mind, regardless of where the Sox are in the race. A solid back end of the pen is so important for holding leads. The still young core of starting pitchers need to have the lead protected when they come out of games. If Liam Hendricks is himself, then we know who the 2025 closer will be. As far as buying this deadline, I still would want it to be for player(s) that can help in 2024 and at least 2025 as well. Diaz from the Rays is the best idea I have seen floated recently, but the Rays are hanging in there so far. In response to your point #1: I'd estimate it would be a 4th rounder, because I still (naively) believe they will go over the LTT next year. I keep looking at the roster and can't see both O'Neil and Ref on it after the deadline. Same with Hamilton and Valdez. Same with Jansen and Martin. One of each seems likely to be moved. The buy/sell approach seems to line up well with the roster construction. LT #s are calculated after the season is over so if they do go over for 2025 it would have no effect on their 2025 picks. Unless they do something wild and somehow go over this year should they QO a guy who gets signed they will get a 2nd rounder.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 1, 2024 14:51:14 GMT -5
Regarding our unsigned free agents. 1) Pivetta I would keep and make the QO. That way we could end up with a valuable 2nd round pick or if Pivetta accepts only a one year commitment to him. 2) O'Neil is fun, hits some bombs, but he is expendable. If a team sees a fit and we could get an interesting prospect I would do it. 3) Jansen and Martin are not expendable in my mind, regardless of where the Sox are in the race. A solid back end of the pen is so important for holding leads. The still young core of starting pitchers need to have the lead protected when they come out of games. If Liam Hendricks is himself, then we know who the 2025 closer will be. As far as buying this deadline, I still would want it to be for player(s) that can help in 2024 and at least 2025 as well. Diaz from the Rays is the best idea I have seen floated recently, but the Rays are hanging in there so far. If they trade Jansen and Martin, then Slaten, Kelly, and Bernardino will become the back end of the pen, and that would actually mark an improvement. (The front end of the pen would be worse in that scenario, of course; all I'm saying is that if you think there's some special importance to not losing the lead in the 8th or 9th inning they wouldn't actually be in worse shape in this scenario.)
One of the reasons I'd be inclined to trade Jansen and Martin is that I think a pen of Slaten, Kelly, Bernardino, Weissert, Booser, Hendriks, and Winckowski if they don't need him in the rotation would be totally fine. Maybe keep Martin if you really want that added depth.
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tedf
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Post by tedf on Jul 1, 2024 14:58:35 GMT -5
I'm skeptical, incandenza. We have five leverage relievers right now, so dropping two of them is going to have an impact. Slaten, Kelly, and Bernardino are already pitching leverage innings. Winckowski is in the rotation, and seems to be needed there.
Hendriks and Booser might be okay for leverage innings, but Weissert and Campbell have not done well in those situations.
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Post by okin15 on Jul 1, 2024 15:17:21 GMT -5
I'd advocate for trading Martin, but not Jansen. Use his value to bring back a RHH or SP (along with prospect capital) if you want to add to the team.
I suggest trading him, but not Jansen because I think you could get away with giving Jansen a QO, but certainly not Martin.
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Post by wamderingdude on Jul 1, 2024 15:39:23 GMT -5
I'd advocate for trading Martin, but not Jansen. Use his value to bring back a RHH or SP (along with prospect capital) if you want to add to the team. I suggest trading him, but not Jansen because I think you could get away with giving Jansen a QO, but certainly not Martin. Kenley is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer, he’s already received one (and rejected it) when he was with the Dodgers.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 1, 2024 15:44:23 GMT -5
Regarding our unsigned free agents. 1) Pivetta I would keep and make the QO. That way we could end up with a valuable 2nd round pick or if Pivetta accepts only a one year commitment to him. 2) O'Neil is fun, hits some bombs, but he is expendable. If a team sees a fit and we could get an interesting prospect I would do it. 3) Jansen and Martin are not expendable in my mind, regardless of where the Sox are in the race. A solid back end of the pen is so important for holding leads. The still young core of starting pitchers need to have the lead protected when they come out of games. If Liam Hendricks is himself, then we know who the 2025 closer will be. As far as buying this deadline, I still would want it to be for player(s) that can help in 2024 and at least 2025 as well. Diaz from the Rays is the best idea I have seen floated recently, but the Rays are hanging in there so far. If they trade Jansen and Martin, then Slaten, Kelly, and Bernardino will become the back end of the pen, and that would actually mark an improvement. (The front end of the pen would be worse in that scenario, of course; all I'm saying is that if you think there's some special importance to not losing the lead in the 8th or 9th inning they wouldn't actually be in worse shape in this scenario.) One of the reasons I'd be inclined to trade Jansen and Martin is that I think a pen of Slaten, Kelly, Bernardino, Weissert, Booser, Hendriks, and Winckowski if they don't need him in the rotation would be totally fine. Maybe keep Martin if you really want that added depth.
None of those guys are used to pitching in high leverage high pressure situations in the heat of a pennant race, being THE guy everybody looks to to nail down a 4-3 lead in the 9th. If they're trying to won this year, Jansen is the guy. You cant be experimenting with that stuff in August and risk turning a stable position into a roulette wheel. I'll end there because I know your view on relievers and it'll just go round and round from there. I don't think the primary set up and particularly the closers role is as interchangeable as you think it is. I have a feeling the numbers for the pen crew might not be as good if the light was shined on then the way it gets turned on for closers. It can be easier to succeed when working anonymously. And I would not hand back the closers role to Hendriks because who know how healthy and effective he'll be coming off surgery? If the Sox truly dont think they have much of a shot at winning then yeah trade Kenley, Martin, Pivetta and O'Neill, but if they think they can win then you go with your best team. We'll know more in a month depending upon where they are in the standings. At this moment I'd be in slight buy mode. A month ago I was in sell mode. Let's see where they are around 7/25.
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Post by kwodes on Jul 1, 2024 18:48:08 GMT -5
Reid Detmers 5 AAA starts:
30 IP, 32 H, 19 ERs, 8 HRs, 9 BB, 41 Ks
Any interest here?
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 1, 2024 18:59:23 GMT -5
Reid Detmers is pretty good
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 1, 2024 19:57:48 GMT -5
Reid Detmers is pretty good Reid Detmers is pretty good....at giving up HRs in AAA, lol. Thought he'd be an established big leaguer by now.
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tedf
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Post by tedf on Jul 1, 2024 20:27:24 GMT -5
Reid Detmers would be a smart pickup, if cheap. He has quality FIP and xFIP over his career, and a decent xERA for that matter as well. When all the peripherals suggest a league-average pitcher, you take a chance on helping him figure out why he isn't getting league-average results.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Jul 1, 2024 20:33:12 GMT -5
I would give up what I presume would be considered a shocking amount for Detmers right now. It wouldn't be anything close to cheap.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jul 1, 2024 21:39:16 GMT -5
Rotowire: “Detmers tossed six innings for Triple-A Salt Lake on Sunday, allowing three runs on four hits and no walks while striking out 11 batters. (7/1/2024)” (today)
Wonder if his start today is a portent to Detmers getting called back up to the Angels soon? It’s almost been a month since they demoted him. Unless there’s some service time chicanery at work, I don’t know why the Angels wouldn’t want their talented 24 year old starter back to developing at the major league level.
Then again, they are the Angels.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Jul 1, 2024 21:41:01 GMT -5
Presumably the main reason Detmers has struggled in the big leagues is that the Angels can’t do anything right. It follows that he should be available for cheap, might as well check in.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jul 1, 2024 22:08:42 GMT -5
Maybe the deadline isn't the best time to do it, but I really would like to see Breslow go get another ~25 yo starter who is under control through at least 2027. This team doesn't need rentals. Whether it's of the Detmers caliber or a break-the-bank Skubal caliber I don't really have a preference. But we have a stocked farm and a major league roster that is really close to taking off.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 2, 2024 6:06:05 GMT -5
Presumably the main reason Detmers has struggled in the big leagues is that the Angels can’t do anything right. It follows that he should be available for cheap, might as well check in. Detmers is a great buy low. He's still young, has swing and miss stuff and has never really learned how to pitch in the big leagues. Andrew Bailey could get him right and make him servicable/decent. Thats a move that they should make regardless of selling or buying.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 2, 2024 6:25:33 GMT -5
Presumably the main reason Detmers has struggled in the big leagues is that the Angels can’t do anything right. It follows that he should be available for cheap, might as well check in. Detmers is a great buy low. He's still young, has swing and miss stuff and has never really learned how to pitch in the big leagues. Andrew Bailey could get him right and make him servicable/decent. Thats a move that they should make regardless of selling or buying. Of the Red Sox 4 returning rotation members this year three of them have been distinctly worse than last year. Aren’t we past the point of considering Bailey a miracle cure for any starting pitcher? And just to be clear I’m not blaming him, I always thought the pitching coaches were getting too much credit/blame. Also though, I don’t think Detmers needs a miracle fix, I think he’s just good (though I don’t think he’s much of a buy low).
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Post by incandenza on Jul 2, 2024 8:11:16 GMT -5
People keep assuming that there must be position player acquisitions that would make the Red Sox better, but it just isn't so! Urshela and Rosario would only make them worse.
I don't think Williams or Montas help either. (Williams has great numbers this year but they're out of line with his career numbers and he has only 11 starts and 56 IP; he's on the IL with an elbow injury and "has yet to start a throwing program," apparently.) They're not obvious upgrades on Winckowski/Criswell. To actually improve the rotation they'd need to get up to like the Flaherty or Eovaldi tier.
Tanner Scott might be a nice target in a trade-Jansen-for-prospects-and-buy-his-replacement-with-lesser-prospects gambit.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 2, 2024 9:02:02 GMT -5
Detmers is a great buy low. He's still young, has swing and miss stuff and has never really learned how to pitch in the big leagues. Andrew Bailey could get him right and make him servicable/decent. Thats a move that they should make regardless of selling or buying. Of the Red Sox 4 returning rotation members this year three of them have been distinctly worse than last year. Aren’t we past the point of considering Bailey a miracle cure for any starting pitcher? And just to be clear I’m not blaming him, I always thought the pitching coaches were getting too much credit/blame. Also though, I don’t think Detmers needs a miracle fix, I think he’s just good (though I don’t think he’s much of a buy low). Bello is going through similar stuff as a lot of guys who make the 2nd year jump. I'll give him a pass. We all knew that the success in April with the rotation where everyone looked like prime Nolan Ryan wasn't sustainable, but I think overall you can look at Crawford, Houck, and Pivetta and see some kind of improvement. I'm not sure if I would say the rotation is worse than last year based on that.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 2, 2024 9:15:56 GMT -5
Of the Red Sox 4 returning rotation members this year three of them have been distinctly worse than last year. Aren’t we past the point of considering Bailey a miracle cure for any starting pitcher? And just to be clear I’m not blaming him, I always thought the pitching coaches were getting too much credit/blame. Also though, I don’t think Detmers needs a miracle fix, I think he’s just good (though I don’t think he’s much of a buy low). Bello is going through similar stuff as a lot of guys who make the 2nd year jump. I'll give him a pass. We all knew that the success in April with the rotation where everyone looked like prime Nolan Ryan wasn't sustainable, but I think overall you can look at Crawford, Houck, and Pivetta and see some kind of improvement. I'm not sure if I would say the rotation is worse than last year based on that. How do you look at Crawford and Pivetta as improved when they’ve both gotten worse in nearly every metric? Pivetta is close to flat on the year, but has especially fallen off relative to his second half last year (again, just to be clear, not blaming Bailey).
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