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Post by rhswanzey on Jun 16, 2024 1:13:39 GMT -5
Imo they’re better off identifying an underappreciated pitcher and paying a little extra to get him than they are giving up a bunch of great assets for a true “ace”. The list of aces fluctuates by year these days, an ace one year is often on the IL or not pitching at an ace level the next So find the next ace, not a current one Reid Detmers FIP nearly two full runs lower than ERA, is in AAA for some reason in an org going nowhere. Unclear service time picture - may hit arb1 as soon as this offseason? I would push some chips into getting this arm out of a poorly run organization. We don’t have a LHSP here or on the way.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 16, 2024 1:43:44 GMT -5
Imo they’re better off identifying an underappreciated pitcher and paying a little extra to get him than they are giving up a bunch of great assets for a true “ace”. The list of aces fluctuates by year these days, an ace one year is often on the IL or not pitching at an ace level the next So find the next ace, not a current one Reid Detmers FIP nearly two full runs lower than ERA, is in AAA for some reason in an org going nowhere. Unclear service time picture - may hit arb1 as soon as this offseason? I would push some chips into getting this arm out of a poorly run organization. We don’t have a LHSP here or on the way. Exactly what I’m talking about
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Post by costpet on Jun 16, 2024 6:31:46 GMT -5
Dalbec has 75 at bats and 40 strikeouts. That’s more than 50%. I wonder what his trade value is?
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jun 16, 2024 8:19:02 GMT -5
Imo they’re better off identifying an underappreciated pitcher and paying a little extra to get him than they are giving up a bunch of great assets for a true “ace”. The list of aces fluctuates by year these days, an ace one year is often on the IL or not pitching at an ace level the next So find the next ace, not a current one At the very least something like this (rswanzey mentioned Detmers) gives them some extra starting depth, which they are of great need of. The notion of the Red Sox maybe being sellers came up on the national Fox broadcast last night. Obviously it’ll depend on how they preform the next month and a half, but it’s noteworthy that only ten teams in baseball have a better record than the Red Sox. Of those ten, there’s probably some reluctance to trade with the Twins and Royals (who stand between you and a possible playoff spot) as well as the Yankees (who can go suck it.) But beyond those top-tier teams, I’d be kinda offended if I’m Breslow and some of the many teams with worse records (as of now) start asking you to sell to them. “We have a better record than you, you’re not even .500… and you want US to punt?”
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jun 16, 2024 10:28:01 GMT -5
This was the nightmarish PHI/NY series many feared would finally knock the Sox well below that magnetic .500. After, at min, a split and a clear headed look at the WC competition, well yikes. Now we know what we know and the Sox realistically look like buyers with resources to spend. Especially with: 1. continuing performances of the kids. 2. continuing returns of O’Neill, Yoshida, Valdez, Kelly, Abreu, Martin, Grissom, Casas, more. 3. growing confidence in the proximity of a half-dozen or so strong prospects emerging within a year.
The really good news is just how short the shopping list needs to be. This makes for a happy Fathers Day
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Post by pappyman99 on Jun 17, 2024 7:44:48 GMT -5
My only real target that shouldn’t break the bank if we are buying is Christian Walker, right handed power bat between Casas and Devers would be nice
But we would need Yoshida gone… which id be a fan of but I don’t see happening
Don’t see the utility of really breaking the bank for anyone with a just right side of .500 team
If selling, Jansen, Martin, Ton, Pivetta, Refsnyder and McGuire should all be sold off
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Post by incandenza on Jun 17, 2024 8:21:15 GMT -5
My only real target that shouldn’t break the bank if we are buying is Christian Walker, right handed power bat between Casas and Devers would be nice But we would need Yoshida gone… which id be a fan of but I don’t see happening Don’t see the utility of really breaking the bank for anyone with a just right side of .500 team If selling, Jansen, Martin, Ton, Pivetta, Refsnyder and McGuire should all be sold off The guy who has a .382 OBP and a 124 wRC+ with the Red Sox and who they have a $2 million option on for next season?
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Post by pappyman99 on Jun 17, 2024 8:22:55 GMT -5
Yeah hence he has trade value…? He is also going to be 34
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Post by badballhitter on Jun 17, 2024 9:14:17 GMT -5
Did some of you miss the game last night? Hard to imagine anyone talking about selling after humiliating the Yankees (and especially their catcher) on Sunday night baseball.
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Post by greenmonster on Jun 17, 2024 9:16:30 GMT -5
I think I would also inquire about Mackenzie Gore. He recently had a physical shoving event with a teammate which might be just a minor issue with tempers flaring, but if its a bigger behind the scenes issue perhaps the Nationals would be willing to move him.
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Post by greenmonster on Jun 17, 2024 9:20:26 GMT -5
Did some of you miss the game last night? Hard to imagine anyone talking about selling after humiliating the Yankees (and especially their catcher) on Sunday night baseball. gotta agree...this team is busting their butts and the front office needs to show support for them. Its important to remember that its not just about managing baseball assets but managing human beings as well. The players need to feel supported unless we want to go down the same road as the 2023 trade deadline lead to.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Jun 17, 2024 9:21:20 GMT -5
Did some of you miss the game last night? Hard to imagine anyone talking about selling after humiliating the Yankees (and especially their catcher) on Sunday night baseball. Even in the mix, Jansen/Martin seem likely to move. Hendriks can slide in for Jansen, the hottest of the bunch can slide into Martin’s spot, and the top AAA arm (Campbell? Winck?) fills in the back end.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 17, 2024 9:22:57 GMT -5
3 games out for a WC spot after playing well against both the the Phils and Yanks in back to back series. I don't know why anyone as of right now would be suggesting selling at the deadline. A lot could certainly change in the next month and a half though.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jun 17, 2024 9:32:01 GMT -5
Did people just choose not to read “If Selling”?
But also yes we are 3 games out of a 3rd wild card spot (a low standard) We need to Be better than that in 4 weeks to be buyers or should we make the same mistake 3 years in a row then act surprised?
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jun 17, 2024 9:35:37 GMT -5
Did some of you miss the game last night? Hard to imagine anyone talking about selling after humiliating the Yankees (and especially their catcher) on Sunday night baseball. Even in the mix, Jansen/Martin seem likely to move. Hendriks can slide in for Jansen, the hottest of the bunch can slide into Martin’s spot, and the top AAA arm (Campbell? Winck?) fills in the back end. Replacing a reliever (like Jansen) is a heck of a lot easier than replacing a starter (like Pivetta), but I would caution about the risks of moving Jansen and assuming the bullpen will be as solid as usual. Without Kenley, your bullpen in theory consists of: -a 38 year old who has been dealing with anxiety (Martin) -a 35 year old who is still currently on Tommy John rehab and we don't know how he looks yet (Hendriks) -two rookies (Slaten, Booser) -another three dudes who between them have combined for less than 200 total major league innings (Bernie, Kelly, Weissert) These are all talented guys! But it is Jansen - one of the most accomplished relievers of the last decade - who provides structure to this group and I would be quite concerned if you take him out this bullpen goes from quite solid to rickety real quick. Who else in that bullpen is calling the manager and saying "I got this" when the game is slipping away in a big moment like Jansen did Saturday night? If the Sox are stuck in the middle and a team makes an offer you can't refuse I can understand a trade, but if at the end of July the front office decides they actually want to try to make the playoffs I'm not sure trading Kenley is a risk-free move here.
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Post by puzzler on Jun 17, 2024 10:22:10 GMT -5
Yeah, if this is a playoff team on July 20th, I'm not trading either Martin or Jansen. I like the bullpen - but there is a really good chance for some regression for all of Slaten, Weissert and Booser. They are going to need arms if they are in the playoffs. They crap the bed after the all star break, sure trade them both.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 17, 2024 10:34:47 GMT -5
Did people just choose not to read “If Selling”? But also yes we are 3 games out of a 3rd wild card spot (a low standard) We need to Be better than that in 4 weeks to be buyers or should we make the same mistake 3 years in a row then act surprised? Sign me up for a repeat of the "mistake" of the 2022 trade deadline.
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Post by briam on Jun 17, 2024 10:54:33 GMT -5
Bummer Grissom’s value is probably in the tank because he would be the perfect guy to move at this deadline for an undervalued pitcher. With Mayer knocking and Hamilton suddenly turning into a guy, Grissom might have to learn some left field or become a utility guy.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jun 17, 2024 11:12:17 GMT -5
Did people just choose not to read “If Selling”? But also yes we are 3 games out of a 3rd wild card spot (a low standard) We need to Be better than that in 4 weeks to be buyers or should we make the same mistake 3 years in a row then act surprised? Sign me up for a repeat of the "mistake" of the 2022 trade deadline. Yes not trading our short term assets that were more valuable than Vazquez for more guys like Abreu was a mistake but I won’t dive too much into all that again
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jun 17, 2024 11:13:42 GMT -5
Bummer Grissom’s value is probably in the tank because he would be the perfect guy to move at this deadline for an undervalued pitcher. With Mayer knocking and Hamilton suddenly turning into a guy, Grissom might have to learn some left field or become a utility guy. There's also a weird fit for him on this year's roster when (or if?) he comes back this year. In a world where everyone comes back healthy (one can dream...) you have in some capacity: Wong, Casas, Grissom, Hamilton, Devers + Reese, (insert backup infielder of your choice) O'Neill/Duran/Abreu + Refsnyder Ceddanne CF/SS Like would he platoon at 2B with Hamilton? Would you sit one of the outfielders/Rafaela to play Grissom? It's worth noting that Ceddanne and Hamilton still grade out as below average at SS. So there's a logic to maybe you getting a defensive-oriented back-up shortshop to use as needed (Nick Ahmed?) but with Grissom on the roster I don't know if you'd really have the space. ( Of course, they do have quite a good defensive shortshop who is tearing the cover off the ball in Portland...)
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 17, 2024 11:26:35 GMT -5
I think I would also inquire about Mackenzie Gore. He recently had a physical shoving event with a teammate which might be just a minor issue with tempers flaring, but if its a bigger behind the scenes issue perhaps the Nationals would be willing to move him. Seems like they got over it pretty quickly
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Post by rhswanzey on Jun 17, 2024 11:44:32 GMT -5
Bummer Grissom’s value is probably in the tank because he would be the perfect guy to move at this deadline for an undervalued pitcher. With Mayer knocking and Hamilton suddenly turning into a guy, Grissom might have to learn some left field or become a utility guy. There's also a weird fit for him on this year's roster when (or if?) he comes back this year. In a world where everyone comes back healthy (one can dream...) you have in some capacity: Wong, Casas, Grissom, Hamilton, Devers + Reese, (insert backup infielder of your choice) O'Neill/Duran/Abreu + Refsnyder Ceddanne CF/SS Like would he platoon at 2B with Hamilton? Would you sit one of the outfielders/Rafaela to play Grissom? It's worth noting that Ceddanne and Hamilton still grade out as below average at SS. So there's a logic to maybe you getting a defensive-oriented back-up shortshop to use as needed (Nick Ahmed?) but with Grissom on the roster I don't know if you'd really have the space. ( Of course, they do have quite a good defensive shortshop who is tearing the cover off the ball in Portland...) This sounds like the Westbrook role: 2B vs LHP and first second RH bat off the bench. Add in day-to-day type injuries and random rest days, and there are at bats for Grissom in that role. It’s also unrelated to Romy’s presence on the roster if Romy is here to play 1B vs LHP, which he has been doing in Worcester on his rehab assignment.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jun 18, 2024 11:44:21 GMT -5
Right now all but two National League teams (the Rockies/Marlins) are like 2 games out of a playoff spot. Surely some of those teams may fall off, or doubt their odds enough regardless of how many games back are. But it’s hard to parse who’s a buyer or seller over there right now.
In the AL, we have a middle group of:
Red Sox - playing better than what fans (and maybe even their own front office) expected, despite the injuries. Abreu and hopefully Casas set to return soon. Does an ownership group and front office that seemed pretty nihilistic about 2024 stay dispassionate about their chances this year, or are there enough folks in the organization who say, “Hey guys, we can actually make the playoffs - maybe let’s try at the deadline this time?”
Blue Jays - Vladdy Jr and Bo Bichette are free agents in a year and a half. There’s a case to be made if they feel like they’re stuck to sell and reboot this thing. But as Ken Rosenthal mentioned a few months back, their front office has been there a while and their jobs could be on the line… How does it appear to your bosses to in one glorious second look like you’re getting Shohei, to then trading your franchise cornerstones the next?
Tigers - Tarik Skubal is an ace! And… Spencer Torkelson is back in AAA.
Rays - They are bottom 5 in both runs allowed and runs scored in the AL. Yandy and Randy have both underperformed. They lost their superstar shortstop to legal issues… Of almost any team, you’d think the Rays would be the least worried about whether or not they punt this season and focused instead on attaining future value.
Astros - They’re 6 games under .500. Bregman is a pending free agent. Verlander is old. And yet…
Rangers - They just won the World Series, and Chris Young just got a contract extension. So in one sense, they don’t NEED to do anything. But at the same time, title defenses are important to a lot of teams. Jacob DeGrom is supposedly set to return this summer…
Going to be an interesting deadline
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Post by incandenza on Jun 18, 2024 12:12:58 GMT -5
The Blue Jays are in a tough spot. They are in a window of contention that has yet to pan out, and it closes hard after 2025. Selling off Vladdy and Bichette is a declaration that the window is already closed. But if they don't sell they really enter the wildnerness after next season without much on the farm to start the rebuild with.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 18, 2024 12:21:02 GMT -5
The Blue Jays are in a tough spot. They are in a window of contention that has yet to pan out, and it closes hard after 2025. Selling off Vladdy and Bichette is a declaration that the window is already closed. But if they don't sell they really enter the wildnerness after next season without much on the farm to start the rebuild with. Their player development has been abysmal IMO. It seems like almost every top pitching prospect they have flops, and almost every position player has either a horrible chase rate or ground ball rate. They’ve had a lot of talent and have completely squandered it. This is a long winded way of saying thank you, Toronto.
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