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Post by cmax on Jun 11, 2024 13:18:25 GMT -5
Have enjoyed the 2025 lineup thread, and am wondering about the state of the 2025 rotation & bullpen... While expected to be a real weakness going into this year, pitching has been a relative strength even with a number of injuries. Now it will be fascinating to see how Breslow & Co upgrade the pitching over the next couple of years. Eager to hear your thoughts on the 2025 pitching staff.
Seems like the basic building blocks are:
Rotation
Houck
Bello
Crawford
Giolito
Fitts/Whitlock/Criswell/Winck
w/ Pivetta a question mark - extend, QO, or trade at deadline?
Bullpen
Hendricks - could be traded at deadline
Slaten
Bernardino
Weissert
Campbell
Booser
Kelly
Whitlock/Criswell/Winck
w/ Horn, Fulmer, Murphy, Walter in the mix too.
Upcoming prospect depth includes:
Fitts (included above), Penrod, Gambrell, Perales, Gonzalez...
The above strikes me as not yet a world series winning pitching staff but a reasonably solid and relatively inexpensive foundation to build on.
Would love to see them add at least a really strong starter and reliever in the off-season while continuing to make progress with the development and optimization of in-house talent.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 11, 2024 13:24:36 GMT -5
Seems obvious to me that they ought to add one of the very top tier free agent pitchers, whether it's Burnes, Fried, or Sasaki, and that they have no reason not to. I've sensed a surprising lack of enthusiasm from others about this though: either they dismiss the possibility of such a signing out of hand or they'd just as soon sign Pivetta.
Anyway, put me on team ace-or-bust.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 11, 2024 13:30:49 GMT -5
Seems obvious to me that they ought to add one of the very top tier free agent pitchers, whether it's Burnes, Fried, or Sasaki, and that they have no reason not to. I've sensed a surprising lack of enthusiasm from others about this though: either they dismiss the possibility of such a signing out of hand or they'd just as soon sign Pivetta. Anyway, put me on team ace-or-bust. Agree with this. And if somehow Sasaki is posted and chooses the Red Sox given their budget situation I think I’d still try to sign Fried or Burnes and maybe you trade one of the controlled guys or Giolito. Outside of the ace tier Flaherty and Kikuchi are FAs having great seasons. Not sure if they’ll keep it up or what kind of deals they’ll get, but worth monitoring kind of in the Pivetta-ish tier. |
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Post by huskies15 on Jun 11, 2024 13:31:33 GMT -5
Curious to watch how the rest of the season plays out. Still a lot of questions since the track records of high level performance is not long. Can Bello find his summer form from last year? Does Crawford bounce back and look like a 4/5 ROS? Does Houck continue to look ace-ish?
Depending on the answers to those, the off-season to-do list changes. Still think a bonafide top of the rotation piece is missing here (system feels primed for a big trade). Re-sign Pivetta and have a rotation like the below is my dream. Not too concerned on the 'pen at the moment.
-FA/Trade
-Houck
-Pivetta
-Bello
-Crawford/Giolito
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Post by itinerantherb on Jun 11, 2024 13:47:00 GMT -5
The ace market is pretty thin, as we'd expect. Unless I'm missing someone, it seems like it's just Burnes, Fried, and maybe Sasaki. If they're disinclined to give long-term deals to guys in their 30s (and this past off season may or may not signal that), that makes Burnes (30) and Fried (31) unlikely.
If Sasaki doesn't post, Pivetta might be the best option, especially if he finishes the year healthy and good. With Giolito coming back, that would push Whitlock and Criswell to the pen, where Whitlock could hopefully reclaim his role as a high-leverage multi-inning reliever and Criswell could be the long man/starter depth. Perales is a big wildcard, too.
Assuming reasonable health (I know, I know), that's a pretty good rotation.
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Post by adamgregory81 on Jun 11, 2024 14:12:22 GMT -5
Agreed that the rest of the year will be telling.
I’m not sure there is a rush to do much of anything, so many pitchers are locked up relatively long term. (Bello, Whitlock, Houck, Crawford, Fitts/Perales feels like a serviceable rotation medium to long term, with the occasional Giolito/Pivetta type thrown in.)
For me, the question is how the other side plays out. We gotta figure out whether any of Duran, Wilmer, or Rafa are pieces to the next WS team; See how fast (or slow) Anthony, Campbell, and Bleis come along, and of course, get a better sense of whether we should expect to get anything from Mayer/Teel next year.
For the first time in a long time, you can squint and see a (mostly) homegrown team in the not too distant future. And if all goes well (which it won’t), we will need to unload some bats for more young pitching, there just isn’t enough spots for everyone to play.
(Some of that credit has to go to Bloom - I love seeing the pitching improvement, but only so much can be done in a year.)
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,792
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Post by asm18 on Sept 11, 2024 16:40:59 GMT -5
The starting pitching gets enough attention, but in some respects seems like a simpler problem to solve (get like one stud starter to put in front of what you have?) than the bullpen for 2025.
If Kenley and Chris Martin leave in free agency, your bullpen seemingly consists of (but is not exclusive to) these raw materials before making external additions:
REDUCES MY ANXIETY:
Justin Slaten
POST-ELBOW SURGERY:
Liam Hendriks
Garrett Whitlock (if not starting)
Chris Murphy
Michael Fulmer(?)
NASTY STUFF - INCONSISTENT RESULTS:
Zack Kelly
Greg Weissert
FINE
Brennan Bernardino
Cam Booser
WE’LL SEE HOW THEY LOOK IN FEBRUARY:
Luis Guerrero
Zach Penrod
Chase Shugart
(Fill in the blank of AAA/AA reliever you like)
MYTHICAL CREATURE
Brayan Mata
It’s never ideal to invest a great chunk of resources into the volatility that is relievers… but man this is gonna need a lot of work
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Post by incandenza on Sept 11, 2024 16:54:28 GMT -5
I am honestly pretty unworried about the bullpen. Hendriks and Slaten are a great start. Whitlock is an excellent option to have. Bring back Martin or add the equivalent or whatever in free agency, maybe add two guys for ~$15 million total and round it out with Guerrero, Booser, Bernardino, Kelly, Campbell, etc.
I non-counterintuitively think this is an easier problem to solve than the starting pitching problem, where they do indeed just need to "go out and get a guy," but it's hard to see who the really good option would be that wouldn't also require an alarming overpay.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 11, 2024 16:56:49 GMT -5
Happy to have on 26 man (9):
Tanner Houck
Brayan Bello
Kutter Crawford
Lucas Giolito
Garrett Whitlock
Cooper Criswell
Quinn Priester
Liam Hendriks
Justin Slaten
Happy to have as up and down arms (6):
Josh Winckowski
Greg Weissert
Cam Booser
Richard Fitts
Zach Penrod
Zack Kelly
Luis Guerrero
DFA Danger Zone (3):
Brennan Bernardino (only because he is out of options)
Chris Murphy
Bailey Horn
Gonna get DFA'ed (2):
Bryan Mata
Chase Shugart
Injury unknowns (2):
Michael Fulmer
Isaiah Campbell
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 11, 2024 17:00:35 GMT -5
I non-counterintuitively think this is an easier problem to solve than the starting pitching problem, where they do indeed just need to "go out and get a guy," but it's hard to see who the really good option would be that wouldn't also require an alarming overpay. I would feel fine about the rotation with a Pivetta tier addition. Houck / Bello / Giolito / Pivetta / Crawford / Priester / Criswell / Fitts is a pretty good opening day rotation with allowance for one injury, with two solid depth options. Plus maybe Whitlock figures in still |
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Post by wanderingdude on Sept 11, 2024 17:14:12 GMT -5
The Red Sox are in a spot now where they need to start chasing higher end guys in the rotation imo. They have a lot of mid to backend rotation guys, and it never hurts to add another, but to take that next step i think they need to add someone with the upside of a 1. Sasaki if he comes over is the obvious far and away best option imo, but after that it gets murky. I don’t want to give Burnes 200 M the way his K rate is diving and i don’t trust fried’s health. Trading elite prospects for one also doesn’t make me feel great. My choice would be sasaki then trading for someone who hasn’t broken out yet. It’s more risk.l because there’s a chance they never do but i’d rather do that then meet the asking price for someone established. Gonna be an interesting offseason
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,792
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Post by asm18 on Sept 11, 2024 17:21:26 GMT -5
Happy to have on 26 man (9): Tanner Houck Brayan Bello Kutter Crawford Lucas Giolito Garrett Whitlock Cooper Criswell Quinn Priester Liam Hendriks Justin Slaten [?] (inserted by asm18) Happy to have as up and down arms (6): Josh Winckowski Greg Weissert Cam Booser Richard Fitts Zach Penrod Zack Kelly Luis Guerrero It’s the lack of dudes in-between “definitely want on the team” and preferably up-and-down guys/depth that’s my concern. I adore Liam Hendiks and Garrett Whitlock, but Hendriks is going to a soon-to-be 36 year old coming off TJ (although his stuff graded out in Triple A when he started his rehab) and Whitlock is still doing his second TJ rehab. We don’t know what he looks like yet. Relievers are weird, so somebody is gonna out of nowhere and look great (2022 Schreiber, 2023 Bernie, 2024 Booser) - but Idk how stable that group actually is pre-additions. |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 11, 2024 17:25:09 GMT -5
Hey and what about this guy:
Justin Slaten: 48 IP, 2.89 xERA/2.60 FIP/3.07 xFIP
Compares uncannily well to another Rule 5 pickup back in 2021:
Garrett Whitlock: 73 IP, 2.94 xERA/2.84 FIP/3.22 xFIP
Are they gonna stretch Slaten out? If so the bullpen does admittedly look harder to patch together. (But it would be very funny if, in an offseason in which the fan base would again be desperately pleading for another starter, they were just like "nah we're good.")
I wish they would get a little more creative with usage, like have both Slaten and Whitlock pitch high-leverage long-relief every 4 days or so. They could have 40 appearances, 100 IP, something like that; it could be really valuable.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 11, 2024 17:34:09 GMT -5
Happy to have on 26 man (9): Tanner Houck Brayan Bello Kutter Crawford Lucas Giolito Garrett Whitlock Cooper Criswell Quinn Priester Liam Hendriks Justin Slaten [?] (inserted by asm18) Happy to have as up and down arms (6): Josh Winckowski Greg Weissert Cam Booser Richard Fitts Zach Penrod Zack Kelly Luis Guerrero It’s the lack of dudes in-between “definitely want on the team” and preferably up-and-down guys/depth that’s my concern. I adore Liam Hendiks and Garrett Whitlock, but Hendriks is going to a soon-to-be 36 year old coming off TJ (although his stuff graded out in Triple A when he started his rehab) and Whitlock is still doing his second TJ rehab. We don’t know what he looks like yet. Relievers are weird, so somebody is gonna out of nowhere and look great (2022 Schreiber, 2023 Bernie, 2024 Booser) - but Idk how stable that group actually is pre-additions. Figure we add a starter and two relievers. Pivetta, Kenley and Martin! You know, we are 12th in the majors in pitching WAR this year, we could just run it back. |
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Post by GyIantosca on Sept 13, 2024 16:13:36 GMT -5
I dont know if belongs here. But one big problem to what happened was at the all star break going to LA Dodgers everyone knew there was a bullpen issue. I just wanted them to fix it earlier at this time I am mentioning. They struck at the deadline. We know what happened. But waiting 2 weeks later I understand I am not part of the discussions. I do believe this team deserved better.
The way this felt was In the front office brainstorming they wanted this year to go away not deal with this. I probably wrong but I mean it looked that way.
If the pieces were costing more maybe get bullpen help with term address 2025.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Sept 15, 2024 18:48:11 GMT -5
It’s the lack of dudes in-between “definitely want on the team” and preferably up-and-down guys/depth that’s my concern. I adore Liam Hendiks and Garrett Whitlock, but Hendriks is going to a soon-to-be 36 year old coming off TJ (although his stuff graded out in Triple A when he started his rehab) and Whitlock is still doing his second TJ rehab. We don’t know what he looks like yet. Relievers are weird, so somebody is gonna out of nowhere and look great (2022 Schreiber, 2023 Bernie, 2024 Booser) - but Idk how stable that group actually is pre-additions. Figure we add a starter and two relievers. Pivetta, Kenley and Martin! You know, we are 12th in the majors in pitching WAR this year, we could just run it back. Are we happy with 12th out of 30 in pitching WAR? I hope not. It sounds pretty close to a .500 team to me and the goal is to win the World Series.. I have no problem with them resigning the 3 above named pitchers, but even if they do they need some top flight reinforcements. The Sox rotation when they last won the World Series in 2018 was Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi, and Rodriguez. Of the people listed as rotation building blocks at he beginning of this thread, only Houck would threaten to make this rotation. They are going to have to outbid people for the kind of upgrades they need and I have not seen that they are willing to do so in the last few years. |
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Post by sxfan on Sept 15, 2024 19:09:02 GMT -5
It’s never ideal to invest a great chunk of resources into the volatility that is relievers… but man this is gonna need a lot of work How do the Sox fix it then? Ryan Presley and Tanner Scott should be top priorities this off-season. You have no dependable LH reliever right now. I don't trust anything they have Booser is a inconsistent injury risk. Bernardino is a glorified loogy who's 5 years too late on that role due to the 3 batter minimum. You also don't have a somewhat guy you can trust to close ninth innings. That one inning guy who can get through the heart of a line-up. I like the idea of Scott and Presley because you can close with either one of them and match it up due to handedness at the end of games, which we all know Cora likes to do. Unless he's got a HOF type like Kimbrel or Jansen. |
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Post by itinerantherb on Sept 17, 2024 9:48:52 GMT -5
I want to believe! “The state of the build is strong,” said Breslow. “The position players that we thought had the potential to impact our major league team this year and in the near future are doing that, or have increased or confirmed our confidence in their ability to do that." . . . “When you have homegrown, cost-controlled talent, it enables you to be a little bit more aggressive in looking for elite major league talent,” said Breslow. www.bostonglobe.com/2024/09/16/sports/red-sox-craig-breslow-roster-build/?p1=Article_Inline_Related_Link |
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Post by rkarp on Sept 18, 2024 5:02:24 GMT -5
I think there is a better quantity of major league arms today than we have had in quite some time.
Whitlock, Houck, Bello, Crawford, Giolito, Criswell, Fitts, Preister, Dobbins, Murphy, Mata, Sandlin, Tolle, Gonzalez, Perales. I am probably missing a pitcher or three.
when will they be healthy and when will Bailey have them ready?
whats missing is TOR and day 1 readiness/availability.
Pivetta solves the availability issue
Fried? Snell? trade (not in favor)
facts are the defense has also been an issue, hurting the pitching.
having Story and Cedanne on the field at the same time, every game will be huge. having Campbell/Grissom at 2B every day will be huge. I have not seen enough of Teel to know he is an upgrade, but reports indicate he is.
would be huge for the pitchers to have excellent defense behind them
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 18, 2024 7:39:49 GMT -5
I think there is a better quantity of major league arms today than we have had in quite some time. Whitlock, Houck, Bello, Crawford, Giolito, Criswell, Fitts, Preister, Dobbins, Murphy, Mata, Sandlin, Tolle, Gonzalez, Perales. I am probably missing a pitcher or three. when will they be healthy and when will Bailey have them ready? whats missing is TOR and day 1 readiness/availability. Pivetta solves the availability issue Fried? Snell? trade (not in favor) facts are the defense has also been an issue, hurting the pitching. having Story and Cedanne on the field at the same time, every game will be huge. having Campbell/Grissom at 2B every day will be huge. I have not seen enough of Teel to know he is an upgrade, but reports indicate he is. would be huge for the pitchers to have excellent defense behind them The problem is a lot of those arms aren't Major league arms. And between injury and performance I'm not even sure some of them may factor into 2025 E.G. Perales and Gonzalez. Some of us seem to fall into this trap every year by looking at our roster up/down and shinning a brighter light on the best case scenario in every player. Not critisizing, I MYSELF do this a lot. I like the pithcing that we have, but I'd like it a whole lot more with a few premium arms at the top. |
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,792
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Post by asm18 on Sept 20, 2024 15:42:06 GMT -5
Am I crazy for just wanting to offer Blake Snell 3 years at “name your price within a non-stupid amount” among the current SP options?
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Post by wanderingdude on Sept 20, 2024 22:13:12 GMT -5
Am I crazy for just wanting to offer Blake Snell 3 years at “name your price within a non-stupid amount” among the current SP options? After Sasaki, by far the most appealing to me compared to massive contracts to burnes or fried. |
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Post by finaliz3d on Sept 20, 2024 22:17:17 GMT -5
I think Fried would be good if you want a long-term commitment, Snell would be great on a shorter term one. Sasaki the problem is he counts towards the international bonus pool which means it doesn't count towards actual salary and as such if he wants to just go to the Dodgers he can just go there and not cost them much besides not being able to sign a lot of IFA prospects.
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Post by wanderingdude on Sept 20, 2024 22:20:15 GMT -5
I think Fried would be good if you want a long-term commitment, Snell would be great on a shorter term one. Sasaki the problem is he counts towards the international bonus pool which means it doesn't count towards actual salary and as such if he wants to just go to the Dodgers he can just go there and not cost them much besides not being able to sign a lot of IFA prospects. I mean he’s most likely not coming here but getting 6 years of a potential 23 year old Ace is worth every IFA dollar plus more. It’s the best option and not close, but also probably a long shot to happen. |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 21, 2024 12:05:30 GMT -5
I think Fried would be good if you want a long-term commitment, Snell would be great on a shorter term one. Sasaki the problem is he counts towards the international bonus pool which means it doesn't count towards actual salary and as such if he wants to just go to the Dodgers he can just go there and not cost them much besides not being able to sign a lot of IFA prospects. Is this frequently-aired assumption that he'll go to the Dodgers based on any actual reporting or is it just based on the fact that the last two high-profile Japanese stars signed with the Dodgers and the inference that all the rest will forevermore? |
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