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Post by johnnygooch on Oct 21, 2024 12:19:22 GMT -5
I know we've talked about Ryan Helsley and Sonny Gray from St. Louis as trade possibilities, I think Matthew Liberatore would also be a fun arm to trade for. Very high pedigree as a lefty starting pitching prospect with the Rays and then the Cardinals, struggled to develop as a starter, and now has found a bit of success in the bullpen. 24 years old with a large arsenal of pitches and nice velo from the left side. I'm sure Chaim would rather keep cheap controllable pitching now that he's in charge there, but he has a lot of arms coming up in Tink Hence, Quinn Matthews, Tekoah Roby, and Cooper Hjerpe. If available he could be a cool change of scenery / reclamation project with the fallback option of being a decent cheap lefty bullpen arm.
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Post by abrinker on Oct 23, 2024 12:00:54 GMT -5
Man, if Pivetta just got himself a good changeup, seems like he'd be pretty devastating. His Stuff+ is so good, but he lacks that offering that most top SPs have in their arsenal. Even without it, it's hard to reconcile his Stuff to his performance. Mystery. Yusei Kikuchi is an under-the-radar FA that also shows excellent Stuff, albeit with better traditional stats as well.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Oct 23, 2024 12:56:18 GMT -5
Man, if Pivetta just got himself a good changeup, seems like he'd be pretty devastating. His Stuff+ is so good, but he lacks that offering that most top SPs have in their arsenal. Even without it, it's hard to reconcile his Stuff to his performance. Mystery. Yusei Kikuchi is an under-the-radar FA that also shows excellent Stuff, albeit with better traditional stats as well. Pivetta has a 3.7 ERA and FIP since he started throwing the sweeper. It’s not “best pitcher in the league” like Stuff+ thinks, but he’s been good for 4.7 RA9-WAR in 235 innings since then. He’s been a very useful pitcher for a while now. Not gonna be easy to replace him, let alone find a 1-2 WAR improvement. |
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Post by bluechip on Oct 29, 2024 7:57:45 GMT -5
Man, if Pivetta just got himself a good changeup, seems like he'd be pretty devastating. His Stuff+ is so good, but he lacks that offering that most top SPs have in their arsenal. Even without it, it's hard to reconcile his Stuff to his performance. Mystery. Yusei Kikuchi is an under-the-radar FA that also shows excellent Stuff, albeit with better traditional stats as well. Pivetta has a 3.7 ERA and FIP since he started throwing the sweeper. It’s not “best pitcher in the league” like Stuff+ thinks, but he’s been good for 4.7 RA9-WAR in 235 innings since then. He’s been a very useful pitcher for a while now. Not gonna be easy to replace him, let alone find a 1-2 WAR improvement. Those stats are buoyed by extremely good numbers that started immediately after he incorporated the pitch. His numbers this past year, i.e. when hitters had a scouting report noting the pitch and could watch video of it, are far more pedestrian and in line with his stats prior 2023. Basically you are looking at two different clusters of numbers. We have yet to see any sustained period where he is something in the middle. |
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Oct 29, 2024 8:31:41 GMT -5
Pivetta has a 3.7 ERA and FIP since he started throwing the sweeper. It’s not “best pitcher in the league” like Stuff+ thinks, but he’s been good for 4.7 RA9-WAR in 235 innings since then. He’s been a very useful pitcher for a while now. Not gonna be easy to replace him, let alone find a 1-2 WAR improvement. Those stats are buoyed by extremely good numbers that started immediately after he incorporated the pitch. His numbers this past year, i.e. when hitters had a scouting report noting the pitch and could watch video of it, are far more pedestrian and in line with his stats prior 2023. Basically you are looking at two different clusters of numbers. We have yet to see any sustained period where he is something in the middle. Not going to bother tracking down the numbers to prove it, but this is not correct |
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Post by johnnygooch on Oct 29, 2024 11:30:48 GMT -5
As far as I can tell, Pivetta started to throw his sweeper after the Guardians series in June of 2023.
His total numbers from June 9th 2023 to today:
3.75 ERA
3.77 FIP
237.1 Innings
His numbers from June 9th 2023 through the rest of the 2023 season:
3.14 ERA
3.31 FIP
91.2 Innings
His 2024 numbers:
4.14 ERA
4.07 FIP
145.2 Innings
Definitely buoyed by his second half last season, but he has still been better overall since the pitch was introduced. He had a 5.65 ERA in 2023 before he introduced the sweeper. For what it's worth, I'm not in favor of resigning Pivetta. He did his job for us well, and he looked like a top of the rotation pitcher at times in Boston. If we give him the QO I won't be upset since I believe he will get good money elsewhere from an organization that has established that they can polish pitchers with good raw stuff (Rays for sure are getting him).
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Post by greatscottcooper on Oct 29, 2024 12:10:11 GMT -5
Once upon a time time I could assume Boston would go over the luxury tax after resetting.
If one could go back to that alternate timeline, Nick Pivetta would become the perfect QO candidate.
If he goes elsewhere we bet a pick, if he accepts then “oh no” Nick Pivetta for one more year. A guy who very well may have evolved into a solid middle rotation starter and at worse is a reliable back end guy…..once upon a time
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Post by taiwansox on Oct 29, 2024 12:42:55 GMT -5
Watching Buehler, his fastball command/stuff looks decent, but he really doesn’t have any consistent offspeed. I wonder if he’s a target for the front office. Fried and Burnes are likely fully priced without much room for improvement, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go off-roading for the off-season pitching moves.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Oct 29, 2024 13:26:48 GMT -5
Watching Buehler, his fastball command/stuff looks decent, but he really doesn’t have any consistent offspeed. I wonder if he’s a target for the front office. Fried and Burnes are likely fully priced without much room for improvement, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go off-roading for the off-season pitching moves. Stuff+ liked his slider and cutter this year. He has a pretty wide arsenal of pitches - wonder if Bailey could get creative there. Pitch Type and Usage - 2024 Four seam - 29% Cutter - 21% Knucklecurve - 19% Sinker - 16% Sweeper - 8% Changeup - 5% Slider - < 2% His four seam was actually his least effective pitch this year with a .446 xWOBA…🤔 Although it sure looks like played up more last night |
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Post by taiwansox on Oct 30, 2024 11:39:44 GMT -5
Watching Buehler, his fastball command/stuff looks decent, but he really doesn’t have any consistent offspeed. I wonder if he’s a target for the front office. Fried and Burnes are likely fully priced without much room for improvement, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go off-roading for the off-season pitching moves. Stuff+ liked his slider and cutter this year. He has a pretty wide arsenal of pitches - wonder if Bailey could get creative there. Pitch Type and Usage - 2024 Four seam - 29% Cutter - 21% Knucklecurve - 19% Sinker - 16% Sweeper - 8% Changeup - 5% Slider - < 2% His four seam was actually his least effective pitch this year with a .446 xWOBA…🤔 Although it sure looks like played up more last night That’s interesting, I wonder whether it was more of an issue of command rather than stuff? Might be my bias over the last few months, but his breaking ball command hasn’t looked consistent, so stuff might be plus, but can’t consistently put away hitters. Somewhat similar profile to Pivetta with plus stuff and so-so command but obviously better track record… |
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Oct 30, 2024 22:57:56 GMT -5
Yeah I’m game for Walker Buelher
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 30, 2024 23:06:47 GMT -5
Yeah I’m game for Walker Buelher Cooling on Flaherty |
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 30, 2024 23:19:47 GMT -5
Yeah I’m game for Walker Buelher He doesnt get rattled. |
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finaliz3d
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Post by finaliz3d on Oct 30, 2024 23:32:55 GMT -5
I like Buehler but I just don't see it as a priority add. If we have the room for it after we address our main needs, sure, but I just don't see a second starting pitcher as that much of a priority compared to getting a lefty reliever, a top of the rotation starter, and a righty middle of the order bat. (also a catcher, but that could be done cheaply so it's not really going to be pricy).
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Post by taiwansox on Oct 30, 2024 23:57:49 GMT -5
I like Buehler but I just don't see it as a priority add. If we have the room for it after we address our main needs, sure, but I just don't see a second starting pitcher as that much of a priority compared to getting a lefty reliever, a top of the rotation starter, and a righty middle of the order bat. (also a catcher, but that could be done cheaply so it's not really going to be pricy). You could make the argument he is the add. It might not be crazy to project him as better than Fried, Burnes is a bigger question, but he’s already showing regression in his peripherals. The main reason to be bullish on Buehler isn’t his postseason, it’s that he’s coming back from TJ and has potentially unpriced upside (same as Alcantara). He just pulled a 2004-lite version of Derek Lowe, suck in the regular season, kill it in the postseason later rounds |
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Oct 31, 2024 0:12:27 GMT -5
I like Buehler but I just don't see it as a priority add. If we have the room for it after we address our main needs, sure, but I just don't see a second starting pitcher as that much of a priority compared to getting a lefty reliever, a top of the rotation starter, and a righty middle of the order bat. (also a catcher, but that could be done cheaply so it's not really going to be pricy). You could make the argument he is the add. It might not be crazy to project him as better than Fried, Burnes is a bigger question, but he’s already showing regression in his peripherals. The main reason to be bullish on Buehler isn’t his postseason, it’s that he’s coming back from TJ and has potentially unprecedented upside (same as Alcantara). He just pulled a 2004-lite version of Derek Lowe, suck in the regular season, kill it in the postseason later rounds Kinda reminiscent to another pitcher dominant in the late 2010’s whose career went awry due to TJ and an extended absence in Luis Severino. Severino was HORRIFIC in 2023, but managed to finally put together a healthy solid season again for the Mets. I don’t know that 2018 Walker Buelher is coming back, but if you get anything close to 2024 Postseason Buelher for an extended stretch we’re in business. The talent is clearly still in there - how his medicals look is another question entirely |
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finaliz3d
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Post by finaliz3d on Oct 31, 2024 0:18:30 GMT -5
I like Buehler but I just don't see it as a priority add. If we have the room for it after we address our main needs, sure, but I just don't see a second starting pitcher as that much of a priority compared to getting a lefty reliever, a top of the rotation starter, and a righty middle of the order bat. (also a catcher, but that could be done cheaply so it's not really going to be pricy). You could make the argument he is the add. It might not be crazy to project him as better than Fried, Burnes is a bigger question, but he’s already showing regression in his peripherals. The main reason to be bullish on Buehler isn’t his postseason, it’s that he’s coming back from TJ and has potentially unpriced upside (same as Alcantara). He just pulled a 2004-lite version of Derek Lowe, suck in the regular season, kill it in the postseason later rounds Fair enough, I just don't want a bounceback candidate as our #1 or #2, and as such I'd see him as more of a secondary addition. |
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Post by blizzards39 on Oct 31, 2024 7:56:25 GMT -5
As far as I can tell, Pivetta started to throw his sweeper after the Guardians series in June of 2023. His total numbers from June 9th 2023 to today: 3.75 ERA 3.77 FIP 237.1 Innings His numbers from June 9th 2023 through the rest of the 2023 season: 3.14 ERA 3.31 FIP 91.2 Innings His 2024 numbers: 4.14 ERA 4.07 FIP 145.2 Innings Definitely buoyed by his second half last season, but he has still been better overall since the pitch was introduced. He had a 5.65 ERA in 2023 before he introduced the sweeper. For what it's worth, I'm not in favor of resigning Pivetta. He did his job for us well, and he looked like a top of the rotation pitcher at times in Boston. If we give him the QO I won't be upset since I believe he will get good money elsewhere from an organization that has established that they can polish pitchers with good raw stuff (Rays for sure are getting him). Im sure lots of us feel the same on Pivetta. If we sign him hea prob Meh, maybe geta hurt and is is probably a bad deal. If he leaves he quite Kikély has a cy young type year. Almost a cant win. Best case is to qualify. There are worse optionally |
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Post by taiwansox on Oct 31, 2024 9:21:57 GMT -5
You could make the argument he is the add. It might not be crazy to project him as better than Fried, Burnes is a bigger question, but he’s already showing regression in his peripherals. The main reason to be bullish on Buehler isn’t his postseason, it’s that he’s coming back from TJ and has potentially unpriced upside (same as Alcantara). He just pulled a 2004-lite version of Derek Lowe, suck in the regular season, kill it in the postseason later rounds Fair enough, I just don't want a bounceback candidate as our #1 or #2, and as such I'd see him as more of a secondary addition. I definitely agree, the issue with pitching is that it’s more volatile than ever, so the FO might think it’s the right bet. I’d much rather sign both Fried/Buehler and not trade for pitching at all. Hard pass on Crochet if his cost is anywhere near what they’re saying. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 31, 2024 13:19:55 GMT -5
Giolito exercised his option, no surprise there
He now has a $14 million club option for 26 that turns into a $1.5 million bonus if he pitches 140 innings. We might need to ease his recovery from elbow surgery with 6 weeks in the pen to start the year.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Oct 31, 2024 13:31:59 GMT -5
Giolito exercised his option, no surprise there
He now has a $14 million club option for 26 that turns into a $1.5 million bonus if he pitches 140 innings. We might need to ease his recovery from elbow surgery with 6 weeks in the pen to start the year.
I suppose post-TJ you wouldn't bank on him to eat up a whole ton of innings anyway, but had forgotten about this specific clause. Yeah that adds a wrinkle for sure |
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 31, 2024 13:54:38 GMT -5
Would be very happy with a healthy Giolito for’25-26 at those rates.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Oct 31, 2024 13:59:27 GMT -5
Giolito exercised his option, no surprise there
He now has a $14 million club option for 26 that turns into a $1.5 million bonus if he pitches 140 innings. We might need to ease his recovery from elbow surgery with 6 weeks in the pen to start the year.
Thank goodness, an official piece of off season Red Sox news. I think this pretty much eliminates any possibility of a QO for Pivetta. Sox should shoot a bit higher for another starter. If Snell would take 3 yrs, I'm all for it. |
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Oct 31, 2024 18:34:44 GMT -5
Yeah I’m game for Walker Buelher He’d be an upgrade and would probably take a pillow contract. Has #2 upside, the downside of course is that he misses time again. |
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 31, 2024 18:49:06 GMT -5
For some reason I'm getting a feeling the sox are going to sign Flaherty who is perhaps the one SP I want them to sign the least. Feel like he's going to get overpaid from one solid season when he frankly hasn't been very good the previous 3-4 seasons. He screams bad contract in the making to me.
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