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If there’s a will, there’s Wilyer — Wilyer Abreu thread
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Aug 15, 2023 16:49:09 GMT -5
At this point is there much of a drop off from Verdugo to Abreu? Abreu may have more power, takes walks, and plays solid defense….cheaper with a lot more years of controllability…
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 162
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Post by tedf on Aug 15, 2023 17:12:33 GMT -5
Interesting question... Their EqA suggests that Abreu may have caught up.
Tell me his batting average in the majors and I'll tell you if he is any good... He does walk a lot, so that could easily add 100 points of OBP. His ISO has bounced about, but could be in the .160 to .200 range once translated to the majors. So he could be a .230/.330/.390 hitter or he could be a .260/.360/.460 hitter. Verdugo falls somewhere in the middle of that range.
My take -- from a distance -- is that the Red Sox should go into next season with a Duran/Rafaela/Verdugo set. Abreu gets the first call when (not if) there is an injury. If he looks good at the major league level, then Verdugo would be available for trade at the deadline. But if you get a knock-em-dead offer for Verdugo in January for a quality young starting pitcher, maybe you roll the dice and go into 2024 with two rookies in the outfield?!?
Will be interesting to see who gets a look this September. Both Abreu and Rafaela could lay a legitimate claim to that 14th spot.
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pd
Veteran
Posts: 324
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Post by pd on Aug 15, 2023 17:20:42 GMT -5
Why is it more likely they throw money at Snell than Yamamoto? The influence of Wilyer Abreu is far-reaching and often inscrutable. This needs more love.
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 15, 2023 17:25:32 GMT -5
Abreu's major league equivalent line for this season is .247/.314/.423: www.claydavenport.com/ht/A/ABREU19990624A.shtml. International League has an 800 OPS overall, and Worcester has a hitter's park, so putting up a 900 OPS is not as impressive as it normally would be. Abreu starting next year as a backup (unlikely with the lefty starters) or top reserve in AAA and likely to get a few hundred PA's over the course of the season sounds about right to me.
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Post by jmei on Aug 15, 2023 17:53:35 GMT -5
Abreu is interestingly kind of the opposite of Rafaela in terms of approach. He takes a lot of pitches and works a lot of walks, but that also means he strikes out more than his contact rate would suggest (his 2023 AAA contact rate is 74.3%, which is not that much worse than Rafaela's 77.0% at the same level). If his major league K% is in the sub-25% range, he's got a good chance at carving out a potential starter (or at least platoon) role. If he strikes out 30%+ of the time, he's a backup at best.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 16, 2023 8:51:06 GMT -5
A .737 OPS hitter is currently league average, so it really depends on what you think about his D.
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Post by jchang on Aug 16, 2023 10:19:23 GMT -5
should Yoshida becomes DH in 24, I would like to see Dalbec get another go to see if he can get it together, and possibly have some trade value. Wilyer would the second LF/RF to come up when needed
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 17, 2023 14:00:35 GMT -5
should Yoshida becomes DH in 24, I would like to see Dalbec get another go to see if he can get it together, and possibly have some trade value. Wilyer would the second LF/RF to come up when needed Are you suggesting Dalbec in LF? 1B and DH are taken in your scenario.
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Post by jchang on Aug 17, 2023 14:37:41 GMT -5
should Yoshida becomes DH in 24, I would like to see Dalbec get another go to see if he can get it together, and possibly have some trade value. Wilyer would the second LF/RF to come up when needed Are you suggesting Dalbec in LF? 1B and DH are taken in your scenario. I would just like to see Dalbec get another shot at the show, on the off chance he has a Chris Davis or even Josh Donaldson career trajectory. Only to ride the control years, let some other team pickup the free agent
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 18, 2023 7:02:56 GMT -5
Are you suggesting Dalbec in LF? 1B and DH are taken in your scenario. I would just like to see Dalbec get another shot at the show, on the off chance he has a Chris Davis or even Josh Donaldson career trajectory. Only to ride the control years, let some other team pickup the free agent I mean, he's got 912 career MLB PA. How many more do you think he needs before figuring it out? Yeah, Davis needed more than 1000 PA but that's so rare. Donaldson was more like 350 before he got there.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 18, 2023 7:38:45 GMT -5
Not to turn this into a Dalbec thread but I do feel like he can provide value somewhere as the RHH in a platoon. His ML career wRC+ vs lefties is 127 and he has slugged .516 vs them. He strikes out 35.4% of the time against lefties still so that's obviously not good. Still though he seems like someone who one of the small market low in the standings teams could take a flier on and at least get some value from him as a cheap player for a year or two and who knows maybe something clicks and they get a steal. It's not likely but I would like to see him be given some sort of shot elsewhere, it's not going to happen in Boston at this point though.
Ideally Sox could deal him in the offseason for some low minors long shot lotto ticket since at this point he's taking up a 40 man spot and I think there's a decent chance they DFA him. Which I guess if you're another team and you think he's going to be DFA'd anyway why would they trade anything for him so it's unlikely I suppose.
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Post by terriblehondo on Aug 18, 2023 9:46:05 GMT -5
I would just like to see Dalbec get another shot at the show, on the off chance he has a Chris Davis or even Josh Donaldson career trajectory. Only to ride the control years, let some other team pickup the free agent I mean, he's got 912 career MLB PA. How many more do you think he needs before figuring it out? Yeah, Davis needed more than 1000 PA but that's so rare. Donaldson was more like 350 before he got there. Maybe Jose Bautista? I think Bobby needs to get a change of teams or leagues to get another chance. I never believed he would get as far as he did. So I was way off.
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Post by Smittyw on Aug 18, 2023 10:53:41 GMT -5
It's not like Dalbec's 912 PA have been completely hopeless, either. He hit 45 home runs with a .750 OPS.
He should get another shot, whether it's here or elsewhere.
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Post by jchang on Aug 18, 2023 11:24:29 GMT -5
Apologize for the distraction. Yes I would like to see Wilyer get a shot next year, but he would be my second choice for corner. I suppose we could see them in September?
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,107
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Post by jimoh on Aug 18, 2023 11:41:53 GMT -5
It's not like Dalbec's 912 PA have been completely hopeless, either. He hit 45 home runs with a .750 OPS. He should get another shot, whether it's here or elsewhere. Any discussion of Dalbec's cumulative stats has to take into account that he has had two tremendous hot streaks of about 100 PA where he hit like Jimmy Foxx and in the rest of his mlb time has hit like a backup SS.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Aug 18, 2023 11:55:34 GMT -5
It's not like Dalbec's 912 PA have been completely hopeless, either. He hit 45 home runs with a .750 OPS. He should get another shot, whether it's here or elsewhere. I think Dalbec's possibility of getting another chance with the Red Sox depends on whether Turner leaves or stays. If Turner leaves, I think Dalbec might take his role. If Turner stays, I don't see a spot for Dalbec unless the sox think he can play the outfield at an acceptable level. If Turner stays, I see Dalbec being traded. With Abreu, I think his chance to make the Sox next year depend on whether Verdugo is on the team. If he is, I don't think the Red Sox would carry another left handed hitting outfielder in addition to Duran and Yoshida. If Verdugo leaves, then there might be room for Abreu since he apparently can play right field pretty well.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 18, 2023 13:22:36 GMT -5
It's not like Dalbec's 912 PA have been completely hopeless, either. He hit 45 home runs with a .750 OPS. He should get another shot, whether it's here or elsewhere. I think Dalbec's possibility of getting another chance with the Red Sox depends on whether Turner leaves or stays. If Turner leaves, I think Dalbec might take his role. If Turner stays, I don't see a spot for Dalbec unless the sox think he can play the outfield at an acceptable level. If Turner stays, I see Dalbec being traded. With Abreu, I think his chance to make the Sox next year depend on whether Verdugo is on the team. If he is, I don't think the Red Sox would carry another left handed hitting outfielder in addition to Duran and Yoshida. If Verdugo leaves, then there might be room for Abreu since he apparently can play right field pretty well. Dalbec would never be given Turner’s role in the offseason. No matter what happens, he’d only get a shot next year due to injury. Abreu will probably get his shot next year once someone goes down. If his glove looks average or better in RF and his bat shows promise (AKA he’s keeping his K% at ~25%), I would think that makes him a better long term solution in RF than paying Verdugo bigger $.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Aug 18, 2023 16:39:06 GMT -5
I think Dalbec's possibility of getting another chance with the Red Sox depends on whether Turner leaves or stays. If Turner leaves, I think Dalbec might take his role. If Turner stays, I don't see a spot for Dalbec unless the sox think he can play the outfield at an acceptable level. If Turner stays, I see Dalbec being traded. With Abreu, I think his chance to make the Sox next year depend on whether Verdugo is on the team. If he is, I don't think the Red Sox would carry another left handed hitting outfielder in addition to Duran and Yoshida. If Verdugo leaves, then there might be room for Abreu since he apparently can play right field pretty well. Dalbec would never be given Turner’s role in the offseason. No matter what happens, he’d only get a shot next year due to injury. Abreu will probably get his shot next year once someone goes down. If his glove looks average or better in RF and his bat shows promise (AKA he’s keeping his K% at ~25%), I would think that makes him a better long term solution in RF than paying Verdugo bigger $. If Turner leaves who do you see being the backup at first and third like Turner currently is (at least before he got hurt)? If Dalbec replaces Turner in that role, he probably wouldn't get as many at bats as Turner is getting this year but they have to have someone as backup at those two spots and of their current players, he seems the obvious fit. He could give Casis or Devers a rest against lefties.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 18, 2023 17:05:10 GMT -5
Let's focus on Abreu. It's his thread after all.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Aug 21, 2023 21:58:36 GMT -5
Looks like media outlets out of VZ are reporting that Abreu is getting called up.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Aug 22, 2023 0:53:18 GMT -5
Excited to see what Abreu can provide to the big league club. I certainly wouldn’t mind a platoon of Abreu and Rafaela manning the grass next season if Verdugo gets traded.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 22, 2023 5:41:50 GMT -5
My two cents worth. He's a disciplined hitter with a lot of power and a solid bat. He's pretty much the antithesis of Rafaela. Defensively he's also decent everywhere with a strong arm. He's unlikely to make any highlight reel catches but also unlikely to hurt you. I see him as a future 4th or 5th outfielder but Sox seem unlikely depending on what the Sox do.
At minimum, he should see some taxi time next year or be part of a trade package. A good showing here while Duran is out would help his chances.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 22, 2023 6:12:33 GMT -5
Realistically, if Rafaela is in Boston's outfield next year then Rafaela, Duran, Refsnyder & Yoshida only leaves one spot for Verdugo, Duvall, Abreu or other.
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Post by texs31 on Aug 22, 2023 7:58:50 GMT -5
Realistically, if Rafaela is in Boston's outfield next year then Rafaela, Duran, Refsnyder & Yoshida only leaves one spot for Verdugo, Duvall, Abreu or other. Unless Turner opts out and Masa ends up the DH?? (though, in that scenario, I would think they'd want to get another RH bat somewhere - likely in the OF)
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Post by seamus on Aug 22, 2023 11:46:02 GMT -5
For some reason I had thought the scouting report on Abreu was that he was a bat without a position - I must have been conflating him with Valdez. Good to hear that he's thought of as being solid out there. I hope Duran's not out long, but a great opportunity for Abreu to force his way into the team's 2024 plans.
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