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8/15-8/18 Red Sox @ Orioles Series Thread
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Post by vermontsox1 on Aug 15, 2024 8:11:34 GMT -5
8/15 Red Sox (RHP Nick Pivetta, 5-7, 4.44, 95.1 IP, 117K:23BB) @ Orioles (RHP Zach Eflin, 8-7, 3.83, 129.1 IP, 104K:15BB) 6:35 pm ET, ESPN/WEEI 8/16 Red Sox (TBD) @ Orioles (RHP Corbin Burnes, 12-4, 2.71, 149.2 IP, 137K:35BB) 7:05 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 8/17 Red Sox (RHP Brayan Bello, 10-5, 4.97, 117.2 IP, 114K:44BB) @ Orioles (RHP Albert Suarez, 5-4, 3.39, 90.1 IP, 72K:33BB) 7:05 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 8/18 Red Sox (RHP Kutter Crawford, 8-9, 4.21, 136.2 IP, 129K:35BB) @ Orioles (LHP Trevor Rogers, 2-11, 4.89, 119.2 IP, 92K:53BB) 1:35 pm ET, NESN/WEEI MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2024: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Aug 15, 2024 8:23:26 GMT -5
Still only 2 games out. Gotta ride this pitching cold streak out
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 15, 2024 8:29:57 GMT -5
How big are these next 2 series? HUGE!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 15, 2024 8:40:22 GMT -5
The Red Sox should be 3 games on front of KC if not for the bullpen meltdowns that have been occurring nightly since the all star break.
Yet they're just 2 games behind what feels like an overachieving KC team. On paper their pen should be as bad or worse than the Sox' pen.
It's crazy. They're still in it. If they were going for anything more prestigious such as first place or best team in the league/playoff first round bye situation, theyd have no chance.
Honestly any scoreboard watching reports that contain Baltimore or New York is a total useless waste of time.
They are NOT catching Baltimore, nor are they catching the Yankees. That should be clearly obvious by now.
The only scoreboard watching that matters are Royals, Twins, and Mariners games.
They're not winning the division or getting a bye. They're not going to be WC1, either.
There's really not much benefit to being WC2, theoretically, as WC2 plays WC1. If it's the Yankees the Sox have a chance, although ever since the Sox blew that 8-7 game to them where they let freaking .170 hitting Trent Grisham tie the game up 1 strike from victory, the Yankees kind of pulled out of their tail spin, and it's obvious the Sox really havent.
If the Yankees took the division and the O's got WC1, it doesnt look good as the Sox have struggled mightily against the O's.
For WC3, theoretically you're better off playing the weakest division winner, which will wind up being Houston most likely, and that's no treat either. The Astros are more vulnerable this year but they still beat the Red Sox like a drum.
I think WC3 is still in play, at least for now.
The concern is that after the Sox get thru with the next 7 games against Baltimore and Houston, they could find themselves 5 out and a game or 2 behind Seattle, too.
They're basically facing their first sink or swim series since that Philly/NYY week that revived them.
They need to do the same here and take 4 of 7. If they dont they could very well sink before they can get reinforcements like Casas, Hendriks, and Slaten back.
I think this week is make it or break it 2.
Feels kind of weird hoping they can be the 6th best team in a 15 team league. Such a silly watered down feeling. I hope soon it will be replaced by a feeling of, of course they're going to the postseason, but will they get a bye and home field advantage throughout? Instead of this hope they can make the top 40%....because if they cant even do that in this watered down postseason format...its kind of embarrassing.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Aug 15, 2024 8:55:54 GMT -5
Was looking at a compilation of different hidden ball tricks on YouTube - the Sox should legit just try all of them this series on the off chance they keep the ball in the park
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 15, 2024 9:51:18 GMT -5
The Red Sox should be 3 games on front of KC if not for the bullpen meltdowns that have been occurring nightly since the all star break. Yet they're just 2 games behind what feels like an overachieving KC team. On paper their pen should be as bad or worse than the Sox' pen. It's crazy. They're still in it. If they were going for anything more prestigious such as first place or best team in the league/playoff first round bye situation, theyd have no chance. Honestly any scoreboard watching reports that contain Baltimore or New York is a total useless waste of time. They are NOT catching Baltimore, nor are they catching the Yankees. That should be clearly obvious by now. The only scoreboard watching that matters are Royals, Twins, and Mariners games. They're not winning the division or getting a bye. They're not going to be WC1, either. There's really not much benefit to being WC2, theoretically, as WC2 plays WC1. If it's the Yankees the Sox have a chance, although ever since the Sox blew that 8-7 game to them where they let freaking .170 hitting Trent Grisham tie the game up 1 strike from victory, the Yankees kind of pulled out of their tail spin, and it's obvious the Sox really havent. If the Yankees took the division and the O's got WC1, it doesnt look good as the Sox have struggled mightily against the O's. For WC3, theoretically you're better off playing the weakest division winner, which will wind up being Houston most likely, and that's no treat either. The Astros are more vulnerable this year but they still beat the Red Sox like a drum. I think WC3 is still in play, at least for now. The concern is that after the Sox get thru with the next 7 games against Baltimore and Houston, they could find themselves 5 out and a game or 2 behind Seattle, too. They're basically facing their first sink or swim series since that Philly/NYY week that revived them. They need to do the same here and take 4 of 7. If they dont they could very well sink before they can get reinforcements like Casas, Hendriks, and Slaten back. I think this week is make it or break it 2. Feels kind of weird hoping they can be the 6th best team in a 15 team league. Such a silly watered down feeling. I hope soon it will be replaced by a feeling of, of course they're going to the postseason, but will they get a bye and home field advantage throughout? Instead of this hope they can make the top 40%....because if they cant even do that in this watered down postseason format...its kind of embarrassing. Only quibble is with the last paragraph. I don't find it embarrassing to be playing for a wild card spot 5 years after the start of a rebuild when the team's best days are clearly in front of it. It would have been very impressive if they were already a division favorite.
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Post by 0ap0 on Aug 15, 2024 10:50:54 GMT -5
Feels kind of weird hoping they can be the 6th best team in a 15 team league. Such a silly watered down feeling. I hope soon it will be replaced by a feeling of, of course they're going to the postseason, but will they get a bye and home field advantage throughout? Instead of this hope they can make the top 40%....because if they cant even do that in this watered down postseason format...its kind of embarrassing. Only quibble is with the last paragraph. I don't find it embarrassing to be playing for a wild card spot 5 years after the start of a rebuild when the team's best days are clearly in front of it. It would have been very impressive if they were already a division favorite. I'm good with that paragraph. Setting aside your addition of "division favorite", as a major-market team the Sox shouldn't need to spend half a decade in the wilderness before being able to compete with perennial powerhouses.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 15, 2024 11:14:41 GMT -5
Only quibble is with the last paragraph. I don't find it embarrassing to be playing for a wild card spot 5 years after the start of a rebuild when the team's best days are clearly in front of it. It would have been very impressive if they were already a division favorite. I'm good with that paragraph. Setting aside your addition of "division favorite", as a major-market team the Sox shouldn't need to spend half a decade in the wilderness before being able to compete with perennial powerhouses. Then don't boom and bust. They don't get to have a two-year rebuild just because they're a big market team; it takes way too long to rebuild a farm and start reaping the benefits.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 15, 2024 11:15:35 GMT -5
Only quibble is with the last paragraph. I don't find it embarrassing to be playing for a wild card spot 5 years after the start of a rebuild when the team's best days are clearly in front of it. It would have been very impressive if they were already a division favorite. I'm good with that paragraph. Setting aside your addition of "division favorite", as a major-market team the Sox shouldn't need to spend half a decade in the wilderness before being able to compete with perennial powerhouses. Started typing out a response but yours was better than what I had to say. With the resources the Sox have, they should have been able to manage to be an 85 win team when they're not at their best but instead they have posted 3 losing seasons the past 4 years, and it's not like we're in the midst win a division or be the best 2nd place team to get in. That bar has been significantly lowered. You just have to be a good team, not a great team. I do think, even if they miss again this season, that the arrow is pointing up, with the caveat being theyll go as far as they build their pitching staff. I am the most excited about their positional prospects as I have been in almost a decade. I think all of the Big 3 will find success in the majors eventually. I'm not pronouncing them HOFers but I see at least above average regulars with realistic all star ceilings. I also believe in Kristian Campbell and while I know there are swing reservations and it might be considered cringeworthy to lump him in with the Big 3, I still think Campbell should be a keeper who could impact the Red Sox with his needed RH bat and defensive versatility. I also think Rafaela will never walk anywhere near enough but is closer to the hitter we see now than the lost guy we saw earlier. I think he's potentially a .275 hitter with 20 plus HR potential and JBJ glove in CF where he'll eventually land. FWIW, I think Montgomery could be a star someday as well. Too soon to tell but let's just say I'm more excited about him a bit more than Zannatello, lol. I am also high on Arias as well and think Cespedes will hit. I also still believe there's a .300 hitter inside of Grissom, that he just needs a reboot. They have the offensive talent to be a top of the league team....if the pitching cooperates. I dont think just bargain bin shopping and hoping they're smarter than everybody else and can magically transform the Quinn Priesters of the world are the only answers. Theyll have to spend to improve the pitching, even despite the risks. I can see better days ahead of being a real contender, but they will need to use their financial might as well.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 15, 2024 11:29:20 GMT -5
I'm good with that paragraph. Setting aside your addition of "division favorite", as a major-market team the Sox shouldn't need to spend half a decade in the wilderness before being able to compete with perennial powerhouses. Started typing out a response but yours was better than what I had to say. With the resources the Sox have, they should have been able to manage to be an 85 win team when they're not at their best but instead they have posted 3 losing seasons the past 4 years, and it's not like we're in the midst win a division or be the best 2nd place team to get in. That bar has been significantly lowered. You just have to be a good team, not a great team. I do think, even if they miss again this season, that the arrow is pointing up, with the caveat being theyll go as far as they build their pitching staff. I am the most excited about their positional prospects as I have been in almost a decade. I think all of the Big 3 will find success in the majors eventually. I'm not pronouncing them HOFers but I see at least above average regulars with realistic all star ceilings. I also believe in Kristian Campbell and while I know there are swing reservations and it might be considered cringeworthy to lump him in with the Big 3, I still think Campbell should be a keeper who could impact the Red Sox with his needed RH bat and defensive versatility. I also think Rafaela will never walk anywhere near enough but is closer to the hitter we see now than the lost guy we saw earlier. I think he's potentially a .275 hitter with 20 plus HR potential and JBJ glove in CF where he'll eventually land. FWIW, I think Montgomery could be a star someday as well. Too soon to tell but let's just say I'm more excited about him a bit more than Zannatello, lol. I am also high on Arias as well and think Cespedes will hit. I also still believe there's a .300 hitter inside of Grissom, that he just needs a reboot. They have the offensive talent to be a top of the league team....if the pitching cooperates. I dont think just bargain bin shopping and hoping they're smarter than everybody else and can magically transform the Quinn Priesters of the world are the only answers. Theyll have to spend to improve the pitching, even despite the risks. I can see better days ahead of being a real contender, but they will need to use their financial might as well. They've averaged an 83-win pace from 2021-present with bad injury luck. I don't know what to tell you.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 15, 2024 11:53:09 GMT -5
- The die was cast when they allowed the farm system to crater in the late 2010s. You can't get to 85 wins without significant contributions from cost-controlled players no matter how much you spend. - They did fairly well to be 10 games over .500 from 2021-23 despite the barren farm and some bad injury luck (especially in 2022). - They *do* have a lot of young talent in 2024 and they *could* be having a really good season, except that: a) their major free agent signings haven't worked out great (Story, Yoshida, Giolito) b) they didn't have enough faith in the team going into the season (could have invested more in FA; could have kept Sale) c) they've been somewhat unlucky/unskillful (depending on how you look at it) in high leverage situations d) a few atrociously below-replacement-level performances have kinda killed them
And for all that they may well make it to the playoffs for the second time in four years, which, as rebuilds go, is about as good as it could possibly be.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 15, 2024 12:00:48 GMT -5
Started typing out a response but yours was better than what I had to say. With the resources the Sox have, they should have been able to manage to be an 85 win team when they're not at their best but instead they have posted 3 losing seasons the past 4 years, and it's not like we're in the midst win a division or be the best 2nd place team to get in. That bar has been significantly lowered. You just have to be a good team, not a great team. I do think, even if they miss again this season, that the arrow is pointing up, with the caveat being theyll go as far as they build their pitching staff. I am the most excited about their positional prospects as I have been in almost a decade. I think all of the Big 3 will find success in the majors eventually. I'm not pronouncing them HOFers but I see at least above average regulars with realistic all star ceilings. I also believe in Kristian Campbell and while I know there are swing reservations and it might be considered cringeworthy to lump him in with the Big 3, I still think Campbell should be a keeper who could impact the Red Sox with his needed RH bat and defensive versatility. I also think Rafaela will never walk anywhere near enough but is closer to the hitter we see now than the lost guy we saw earlier. I think he's potentially a .275 hitter with 20 plus HR potential and JBJ glove in CF where he'll eventually land. FWIW, I think Montgomery could be a star someday as well. Too soon to tell but let's just say I'm more excited about him a bit more than Zannatello, lol. I am also high on Arias as well and think Cespedes will hit. I also still believe there's a .300 hitter inside of Grissom, that he just needs a reboot. They have the offensive talent to be a top of the league team....if the pitching cooperates. I dont think just bargain bin shopping and hoping they're smarter than everybody else and can magically transform the Quinn Priesters of the world are the only answers. Theyll have to spend to improve the pitching, even despite the risks. I can see better days ahead of being a real contender, but they will need to use their financial might as well. They've averaged an 83-win pace from 2021-present with bad injury luck. I don't know what to tell you. We could say the Sox averaged 96 wins for 2018 & 2019, but we both know that doesnt really encapsulate what we saw those two seasons any more than averaging out 2021 - 2023 does. They could have spent more and done it wisely and if they did it might have reflected better in the standings until the prospects cavalry arrives, but as we know Bloom was let go so he took the fall for it.
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 15, 2024 12:14:20 GMT -5
Kind of tired of the “bad injury luck” every team has that playoff and non playoff teams
We should go back the the notion of how do we build teams that can win 95 games again, that worked out way better than this let’s just try and win 88 and be a wild card team
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Post by 0ap0 on Aug 15, 2024 12:18:45 GMT -5
- The die was cast when they allowed the farm system to crater in the late 2010s. You can't get to 85 wins without significant contributions from cost-controlled players no matter how much you spend.- They did fairly well to be 10 games over .500 from 2021-23 despite the barren farm and some bad injury luck (especially in 2022). - They *do* have a lot of young talent in 2024 and they *could* be having a really good season, except that: a) their major free agent signings haven't worked out great (Story, Yoshida, Giolito) b) they didn't have enough faith in the team going into the season (could have invested more in FA; could have kept Sale) c) they've been somewhat unlucky/unskillful (depending on how you look at it) in high leverage situations d) a few atrociously below-replacement-level performances have kinda killed them And for all that they may well make it to the playoffs for the second time in four years, which, as rebuilds go, is about as good as it could possibly be. I don't disagree with any of this, and the bolded part is particularly salient -- all the moreso the extent to which the cratered farm system was partly the result of things like league-imposed penalties for dubious infractions. It's not that the current situation is inexplicable or not understandable, but all still feels like a franchise that's been underperforming (my) expectations. To better days ahead!
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 15, 2024 12:19:27 GMT -5
Kind of tired of the “bad injury luck” every team has that playoff and non playoff teams We should go back the the notional of how do we build teams that can win 95 games again, that worked out way better than this let’s just try and win 88 and be a wild card team I believe that is what they are doing by building up a strong farm system that hopefully they will be able to sustain even after the big 3 graduate. In todays MLB it is very difficult to sustain any year to year success if you don't have a steady stream of young good cheap players every 2-3 seasons. The hope is that they are about to enter a boom period with already a good assortment of young talent in the MLB playing well being bolstered by the big 3 sooner than later. Frankly they should have the core of their position players setup for the next 3+ seasons at least on cheap contracts for the most part, they obviously need to go out and find some real horses to join the pitching staff to build on top of guys like Houck, Crawford and Bello. I'll kind of ignore the bullpen for now as I don't like the thought of spending either big dollars or prospect packages in a trade for bullpen but it is a real concern of mine on top of starting pitching.
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Post by rhswanzey on Aug 15, 2024 12:28:36 GMT -5
Remember when Jim Callis was on the pod this past offseason, and he suggested that while the position player group is among the best in the game, how high can a system truly rank with so little pitching?
The thing about the big 3 is our position player group at the MLB level is good enough - right now. The 3 won’t not help, but they also don’t fix the core problem, and some quality MLB players get displaced by their arrivals.
Six runs or more in 15 (!) of 24 games since the break, with a mere 8-7 record in those games. At an average of 6.17 runs per game since the all star break, the Sox have been playing at a 999 run per season pace, which would be the 21st best season of all time, just three runs behind the 1932 Yankees, and behind only seven other teams that played after the 19th century.
If our top prospects take an offense from very good and at times historically great, to slightly better than that, the team is still going to lose a lot of games that were in hand.
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Post by 0ap0 on Aug 15, 2024 12:40:38 GMT -5
The thing about the big 3 is our position player group at the MLB level is good enough - right now. The 3 won’t not help, but they also don’t fix the core problem, and some quality MLB players get displaced by their arrivals. Or we trade from surplus to address true needs
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 15, 2024 12:49:24 GMT -5
The thing about the big 3 is our position player group at the MLB level is good enough - right now. The 3 won’t not help, but they also don’t fix the core problem, and some quality MLB players get displaced by their arrivals. Or we trade from surplus to address true needs Also door #2 they use the savings that comes from adding three more hopefully good young every day players for peanuts to address their glaring pitching needs, this is my preferred avenue. That being said I assume they will use some combo of both, hopefully as early as this offseason.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 15, 2024 13:02:47 GMT -5
They've averaged an 83-win pace from 2021-present with bad injury luck. I don't know what to tell you. We could say the Sox averaged 96 wins for 2018 & 2019, but we both know that doesnt really encapsulate what we saw those two seasons any more than averaging out 2021 - 2023 does.They could have spent more and done it wisely and if they did it might have reflected better in the standings until the prospects cavalry arrives, but as we know Bloom was let go so he took the fall for it. I dunno, I kind of think the 2018/19 Red Sox were a true-talent 96-win team that overperformed in 2018 and underperformed in 2019. And the 2021-23 Red Sox were an 83-win team that overperformed in '21 and underperformed in '22 and '23. Is the demand that the team never underperform? I don't think that's really a reasonable expectation. All we can do is judge them on the overarching philosophy and the moves they make to establish a certain baseline talent level.
This sort of judgment is of course independent of how enjoyable any given season is. 2018 was more fun than 2019; 2021 was more fun than 2022; etc.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,524
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Post by asm18 on Aug 15, 2024 13:17:23 GMT -5
H/t to Red Sox Stats - this is showing the run value of “meatball pitches” by pitch type for Sox pitchers this year
I remember Bailey saying in Spring Training something like that fastballs typically lead to more damage historically, but maybe if all you’re throwing is breaking stuff it doesn’t quite work the same?
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Post by rhswanzey on Aug 15, 2024 13:41:45 GMT -5
Bello since he started throwing his previously awful 4-seamer again on Jul 3 @ Miami: 4.08 ERA, 9.71 K/9, 2.91 BB/9, 1.36 HR/9
Bello before Jul 3: 5.55 ERA, 8.07 K/9, 3.66 BB/9, 1.39 HR/9
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,524
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Post by asm18 on Aug 15, 2024 13:56:00 GMT -5
Bello since he started throwing his previously awful 4-seamer again on Jul 3 @ Miami: 4.08 ERA, 9.71 K/9, 2.91 BB/9, 1.36 HR/9 Bello before Jul 3: 5.55 ERA, 8.07 K/9, 3.66 BB/9, 1.39 HR/9 What’s funny is he’s only thrown a handful per game (8.7% of the time in June, and 4.9% in August so far) - it’s not like it’s back in full force. But just a sprinkling of it seems to have helped. 56 four seamers and they have a .202 xwOBA compared to waaaay higher last year.
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Post by prospectjunkie21 on Aug 15, 2024 14:08:35 GMT -5
Casas staying in Worcester this long while the major league team collapses looks an awful lot like story last year. No urgency and by the time he comes back the team may be out of it.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 15, 2024 14:21:37 GMT -5
Casas staying in Worcester this long while the major league team collapses looks an awful lot like story last year. No urgency and by the time he comes back the team may be out of it. Lol. “No urgency”.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 15, 2024 14:55:08 GMT -5
They've averaged an 83-win pace from 2021-present with bad injury luck. I don't know what to tell you. We could say the Sox averaged 96 wins for 2018 & 2019, but we both know that doesnt really encapsulate what we saw those two seasons any more than averaging out 2021 - 2023 does. They could have spent more and done it wisely and if they did it might have reflected better in the standings until the prospects cavalry arrives, but as we know Bloom was let go so he took the fall for it. I think this is a perfectly fair way to encapsulate both stretches. There will always be over and underachieving, but that's mostly luck, not how the roster was constructed.
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