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8/15-8/18 Red Sox @ Orioles Series Thread
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 15, 2024 20:32:49 GMT -5
Just got home from a concert. Seems I missed the starter homer and bad offense version of the 2024 Sawx I'd be shocked if the concert wasnt better than the game. Concert was great- 2 Asheville NC bands outdoors at a street concert - Zydeco Ya Ya and Empire Strikes Brass. So glad we did that instead of staying home and watching the sinking ship.
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Post by dirtdog on Aug 15, 2024 20:47:04 GMT -5
So to sum it up post all star break bullpen has broken our back and we can’t beat Houston or Baltimore last few years With an ERA in the neighborhood of 5.6 since the AS game its a wonder they beat anybody. That is a whole lot of having to score at least 6 runs to win a game.
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 15, 2024 21:21:04 GMT -5
So many good things happened this season. A lot to look forward to with the players coming up and the players who took steps forward this year. The playoffs just seem so far away at this point, and it really shouldn’t be.
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asm18
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Posts: 2,524
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Post by asm18 on Aug 15, 2024 21:21:28 GMT -5
The Twins placed Byron Buxton on the IL with hip discomfort - because such is the destiny of Byron Buxton
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Post by finaliz3d on Aug 15, 2024 21:45:46 GMT -5
The margin of error for the playoffs is slimming. Royals are playing at a 88-89 win pace, so it's likely going to take 90 wins to get to the playoffs. If we were to win every single series or atleast tie, we would be at exactly 90 wins. So, if we lose any series, basically if we get swept by anybody else or lose more than like three series the rest of the way our chances will severely diminish. I'm not out just yet, but there's definitely cause for concern. Still a chance, KC has a brutal stretch coming up. After they play CIN & LAA, the next 20 are against PHI (3) ,CLE (4), HOU (4), CLE (3), MIN (3), and NY (3). I get that, I just don't think our schedule is that much worse than their schedule. They have the 3rd hardest, but we have the 9th hardest.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 15, 2024 23:16:44 GMT -5
Still a chance, KC has a brutal stretch coming up. After they play CIN & LAA, the next 20 are against PHI (3) ,CLE (4), HOU (4), CLE (3), MIN (3), and NY (3). I get that, I just don't think our schedule is that much worse than their schedule. They have the 3rd hardest, but we have the 9th hardest. Look at the average winning percentages of the teams, though, not the ranks. We're closer to the 24th ranked team than we are to KC. tankathon.com/mlb/remaining_schedule_strength
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 16, 2024 0:33:59 GMT -5
Seems to me that whenever the Sox have a bullpen meltdown kick in the balls kind of loss it lingers into the next game or 2.
Not surprised they were flat tonight. Luckily I missed the game.
I think Rich Hill will probably keep an ERA between 5 and 6 and people will complain that Criswell is still stuck in the pen and not starting like he should be.
I get it but I still think it would be the right move to make, because theyd still be one injury away from a bullpen game or a Winckowski start and even having to go to Fitts.
The Red Sox generally have a good offense although I think due to too many strikeouts and a lack of productive outs, they tend to underscore what they should score as I believe their 1st in OPS but I think 3rd in runs.
But I think the offense will come back to earth. Question is will the pitching? They have a helluva time keeping opposing offenses down.
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Post by finaliz3d on Aug 16, 2024 1:01:59 GMT -5
I get that, I just don't think our schedule is that much worse than their schedule. They have the 3rd hardest, but we have the 9th hardest. Look at the average winning percentages of the teams, though, not the ranks. We're closer to the 24th ranked team than we are to KC. tankathon.com/mlb/remaining_schedule_strengthI guess but our schedule is just less extreme. We don't play a lot of truly bad teams, the only really bad teams are Chicago and sort of Toronto but they've been .500 since the ASB. They get some tougher teams on the higher side, but they also get Pittsburgh, Washington (who also is around .500 to be fair), and the Angels. It also doesn't account for Philadelphia and Atlanta being awful since the ASB either but considered a strong team because of their record. Basically, one way or another I think it evens out schedule-wise.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 16, 2024 2:27:02 GMT -5
Haven’t been able to watch tonight - is there any positive from tonight or it is just the same things as usual Very normal game.
Two homers allowed, including yet another missed strike three call followed by a two-run homer. Masa is going to be leading the team in hitting soon. Devers still looks off at the plate. 1-5 w/ RISP. Devers shoulder is really bothering him. Merloni has mentioned it numerous times this week.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 16, 2024 2:38:50 GMT -5
Seems to me that whenever the Sox have a bullpen meltdown kick in the balls kind of loss it lingers into the next game or 2. Not surprised they were flat tonight. Luckily I missed the game. I think Rich Hill will probably keep an ERA between 5 and 6 and people will complain that Criswell is still stuck in the pen and not starting like he should be. I get it but I still think it would be the right move to make, because theyd still be one injury away from a bullpen game or a Winckowski start and even having to go to Fitts. The Red Sox generally have a good offense although I think due to too many strikeouts and a lack of productive outs, they tend to underscore what they should score as I believe their 1st in OPS but I think 3rd in runs. But I think the offense will come back to earth. Question is will the pitching? They have a helluva time keeping opposing offenses down. The Sox were pre season favorites for last place. They played most of the season without their starting 1B, 2B, SS, injured 3B, DH and RF, 3-4 injured SP and several RP’s. Wow. Now, past mid-Aug, they are still in it, despite enough BP blown leads to deny a certain WC spot. They are playing with rookies and recent rookies and are still in it, still contending. This year may break some hearts but the old “wait til next year” is actually very promising. And they are still in it. Awesome. Sad. Bittersweet.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 16, 2024 6:59:01 GMT -5
Was just last week, after the 4 series win, that the boys were like 50 percent to make playoffs. We are talking 2 games, really 1 with the wild Card for KC.
The Stros sweep hurt. But they rebounded against Texas, even though the last game put me back in time warp to game 6 of the 1986 World Series.
You can't like the bullpen, for sure. But if we can stay healthy, we should be in it when the last week is being played. Stay the course.
If we can get a nice 10 out of 12, that would sure help.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 16, 2024 7:13:15 GMT -5
The Red Sox generally have a good offense although I think due to too many strikeouts and a lack of productive outs, they tend to underscore what they should score as I believe their 1st in OPS but I think 3rd in runs. They're 10th in wRC+, which correlates better with actual offensive production than OPS, but 5th in runs. The difference may be mainly the Fenway run environment, but in any case, I don't think they're underperforming in terms of runs scored.
They are 4th worst in the majors by Clutch rating, though, so the timing of when the runs are scoring is probably not ideal.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 16, 2024 7:18:04 GMT -5
Seems to me that whenever the Sox have a bullpen meltdown kick in the balls kind of loss it lingers into the next game or 2. Not surprised they were flat tonight. Luckily I missed the game. I think Rich Hill will probably keep an ERA between 5 and 6 and people will complain that Criswell is still stuck in the pen and not starting like he should be. I get it but I still think it would be the right move to make, because theyd still be one injury away from a bullpen game or a Winckowski start and even having to go to Fitts. The Red Sox generally have a good offense although I think due to too many strikeouts and a lack of productive outs, they tend to underscore what they should score as I believe their 1st in OPS but I think 3rd in runs. But I think the offense will come back to earth. Question is will the pitching? They have a helluva time keeping opposing offenses down. The Sox were pre season favorites for last place. They played most of the season without their starting 1B, 2B, SS, injured 3B, DH and RF, 3-4 injured SP and several RP’s. Wow. Now, past mid-Aug, they are still in it, despite enough BP blown leads to deny a certain WC spot. They are playing with rookies and recent rookies and are still in it, still contending. This year may break some hearts but the old “wait til next year” is actually very promising. And they are still in it. Awesome. Sad. Bittersweet. It's like most other teams, they'll go as far as their pitching and defense will let them. I have little doubt that they can or will rake in the future. The question becomes pitching. And will the defense support the pitching?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 16, 2024 7:27:35 GMT -5
The Red Sox generally have a good offense although I think due to too many strikeouts and a lack of productive outs, they tend to underscore what they should score as I believe their 1st in OPS but I think 3rd in runs. They're 10th in wRC+, which correlates better with actual offensive production than OPS, but 5th in runs. The difference may be mainly the Fenway run environment, but in any case, I don't think they're underperforming in terms of runs scored. They are 4th worst in the majors by Clutch rating, though, so the timing of when the runs are scoring is probably not ideal. I could have sworn that when I looked a few days ago they were first in the league in OPS, but 3rd in runs scored. Maybe I didnt see what I thought I saw. I thought I saw a small disparity and I know the Sox have been striking out a ton lately. It occured to me they might be slightly underperforming their offensive elements and when that happens there are usually 3 causes, poor situational hitting, lack of speed/athleticism that leads to not being able to take the extra base and playing too much station to station baseball, and the other would be lack of productive outs, usually triggered by not putting the ball into play often enough to advance runners, which usually means too many strikeouts. I would suspect 1 and 3 are the most likely culprits. But that only gets attention when it feels like they need at least 6 runs a game every night to have a chance to win. It's a small observation as the obvious one is that their pen has been killing them and the rotation while showing some hopeful signs, has been knocked around too.
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Post by KoreaSoxFan on Aug 16, 2024 7:57:56 GMT -5
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Aug 16, 2024 8:49:35 GMT -5
Casas slashed .300/.404/.550 in 11 rehab games - fingers crossed the ribs feel good 🤞
Ironically, his last home run before going on the IL in April came off Quinn Priester!
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 16, 2024 8:50:46 GMT -5
Question - didn't watch any of last night's game. How did Shugart look?
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Aug 16, 2024 9:36:08 GMT -5
Question - didn't watch any of last night's game. How did Shugart look? He looked good ! One time around a tough lineup and only gave up one run. No walks. Couple mid 90's fast balls. Hope he gets more run with the Sox. They chose to bring him up over Campbell so they must have seen something they liked in his recent performance at Woo.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 16, 2024 9:49:51 GMT -5
Question - didn't watch any of last night's game. How did Shugart look? He looked good ! One time around a tough lineup and only gave up one run. No walks. Couple mid 90's fast balls. Hope he gets more run with the Sox. They chose to bring him up over Campbell so they must have seen something they liked in his recent performance at Woo. By the eye test, I would put him on the "emergency spot start" radar. He throws six pitches, good velocity on the fastball (averaged 95.8 mph), and he seems to have good movement on the breaking stuff. I'm assuming command is the make or break because I really liked the arsenal. 105 Stuff+, 106 Location+, 104 Pitching+ in his outing last night.
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Post by rhswanzey on Aug 16, 2024 9:53:36 GMT -5
Question - didn't watch any of last night's game. How did Shugart look? They brought him in to face Adley with a guy on base and he got an easy fly out, before striking out Holiday swinging. 44 pitches and only 10 balls. Still think he’s not up for long, but one would have to think Kelly would already be in Worcester if they had felt they had another RHRP on hand. On KC/BOS strength or schedule.. KC has 12-1 on the books already from its White Sox games. Feel free to look at it as a ~.500 team against that remaining schedule, instead of a .545 team.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Aug 16, 2024 10:10:06 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Aug 16, 2024 10:15:01 GMT -5
Question - didn't watch any of last night's game. How did Shugart look? They brought him in to face Adley with a guy on base and he got an easy fly out, before striking out Holiday swinging. 44 pitches and only 10 balls. Still think he’s not up for long, but one would have to think Kelly would already be in Worcester if they had felt they had another RHRP on hand. On KC/BOS strength or schedule.. KC has 12-1 on the books already from its White Sox games. Feel free to look at it as a ~.500 team against that remaining schedule, instead of a .545 team. All season long it's felt like the Royals were about to succumb to the force of gravity, and, well... Since June 9th they're 27-29. Which breaks down as 6-0 against the White Sox and 21-29 against everyone else. That dumb Chicago team is singlehandedly keeping them afloat.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Aug 16, 2024 10:26:45 GMT -5
They brought him in to face Adley with a guy on base and he got an easy fly out, before striking out Holiday swinging. 44 pitches and only 10 balls. Still think he’s not up for long, but one would have to think Kelly would already be in Worcester if they had felt they had another RHRP on hand. On KC/BOS strength or schedule.. KC has 12-1 on the books already from its White Sox games. Feel free to look at it as a ~.500 team against that remaining schedule, instead of a .545 team. All season long it's felt like the Royals were about to succumb to the force of gravity, and, well... Since June 9th they're 27-29. Which breaks down as 6-0 against the White Sox and 21-29 against everyone else. That dumb Chicago team is singlehandedly keeping them afloat. If we don't sweep that 3 game series against the White Sox at Fenway in early September I'm going to be so depressed
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Post by jbuttah on Aug 16, 2024 10:44:55 GMT -5
Was just last week, after the 4 series win, that the boys were like 50 percent to make playoffs. We are talking 2 games, really 1 with the wild Card for KC. The Stros sweep hurt. But they rebounded against Texas, even though the last game put me back in time warp to game 5 of the 1986 World Series. You can't like the bullpen, for sure. But if we can stay healthy, we should be in it when the last week is being played. Stay the course. If we can get a nice 10 out of 12, that would sure help. There's a better chance the Sox finish below .500 than to make the playoffs. The pitching staff is running on fumes and it's only mid-August with no viable reinforcements in sight.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Aug 16, 2024 11:01:32 GMT -5
We basically passed the 3/4 mark of the season last night - final quarter to go! Here is how the team did by record each quarter.
1st - 21-19 2nd - 22-18 3rd - 20-20 4th - TBD (42 games)
Still a ways to go
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