Predicting The 2025 Opening Day Roster

White Sox reportedly turned down offers based around a guy at the very bottom of the top-100 (no way to confirm of course) - So we should assume something not far less than Cease, but I agree he shouldn't cost as much as Cease (he also wants a new contract upon being traded).

I think if the Red Sox traded 1 of the big 4 for Crochet, they should get more back in addition to Crochet (ex: Mayer+more for Crochet+Robert) - that's likely the White Sox best chance of getting a top-top prospect.

I'm okay with Crochet depending on the deal, but there's other guys I'd prefer for sure.

This is my hope at least in terms of this offseason. Fried, Scott, trade for Devin Williams. That could perhaps be done for like 50-55M. Keeps them under the LT so if that's a must it's still a do able offseason. Doesn't solve their RHH thump problem or backup C spot though.

If a deal with Seattle could be expanded with Casas and another big piece for pitching and Cal Raleigh, you get your potential back up catcher and RH power.

The more I think about it, the more I don't want them to trade from the OF. I'd love going into next year with Rafaela as a super UT guy with a starting OF of Anthony, Duran, Abreu and Rafaela and Refsnyder as RHH bench options. You improve the lineup by putting Roman in Rafaela's spot.

If you want to then trade Casas for a young pitcher and move Devers to 1st then you're improving the much maligned IF defense. You can sign Adames or Bregman and maybe your lineup takes a slight hit (I think it'd be neutral) by swapping Casas and Rafaela as everyday guys with Adames/bregman and roman. However, your IF defense and run prevention in general is much improved.

Pitching-wise, you trade for a pitcher and sign Bieber to a prove your health 2 yr deal. Then you have mega-surplus on the infield to trade from the group of Hamilton, meidroth, romy, etc for RPs while slotting Whitlock into the bullpen full time. You can even trade kutter for RP.

This is me more brainstorming and thinking out loud, but I think this more illustrates how many options Breslow and co have this year. The main thought that I think EVERYONE agrees on is that they need to consolidate for some higher end talent this offseason.

***it does suck that the tigers got hot the last 6 weeks. Now there's no shot they trade skubal.***

This is a pretty logical way to spend the money. Maybe you decide not to go after Scott and try to work a thumper through trade. Backup catcher isn’t necessarily a huge deal. You could bite the bullet and just have a Wong/Gasper tandem until Teel comes up. Really not ideal, but yeah it could work for like 2 months or so. Most backup catchers are closer to Gasper than they are Wong in terms of ability anyways.

Need a good defensive catcher lol. But really we need someone to at least mentor Wong…

Fried has averaged 3.5 WAR/year since 2021, ages 27-30, and has been worth $111 million per fangraphs. If he kept up that same pace over the next 7 seasons he'd be worth... $194 million.

Here are the largest SP FA contracts doled out since 2020, excluding Yamamoto since he was so young (ages at signing in parentheses):

2024
Nola (30) - 7/172M (24.5 AAV)
Glasnow (30) - 5/137M (27.3 AAV)

2023
deGrom (34) - 5/185 (37 AAV)
Rodon (30) - 6/162 (27 AAV)
Castillo (30) - 5/108 (21.6 AAV)

2022
Berrios (27) - 7/131 (18.7 AAV)
Scherzer (37) - 3/130 (43.3 AAV)
Ray (30) - 5/115 (23 AAV)
Gausman (30) 5/110 (22 AAV)

2020
Cole (29) - 9/324 (36 AAV)
Strasburg (31) - 7/245 (35 AAV)
Wheeler (29) - 5/118 (23.6 AAV)

I don't see Cole and Strasburg as comps, since the market seems to have treated those as overpays, considering more recent contracts. Also, throw out deGrom and Scherzer.  They're obviously exceptions. 

Age-wise, Fried lines up with the other 30 year olds.  Comparing performance leading up to their contracts, Castillo and Gausman are most similar to Fried. Nola hit FA with a modestly stronger track record; whereas, Rodon and Ray were coming off stronger prior two years, but less established track records. Based on these, I'm not sure I see a lot of support for Britton's estimate. Seven years looks unrealistic, unless he were to lower AAV, like Nola. At the high end, I suppose he could be had for a similar 7/172, but I suspect that's still too high.  Some say Nola took a hometown discount, but he got an extra year out of it, so pick your poison.  And in retrospect, it looks like his contract was generous.  Maybe he's the Rodon deal, but I don't see AAV getting north of 26M for 6 years. If he gets what Britton suggests, he'd be blowing past recent comps, but that sort of market-breaking event seems to only happen to guys who are top 5-ish pitchers, which he is not. I may be wrong, but if so, it would represent a sizable rebaselining of pitchers of his ilk, when there seems to be a fairly consistent market valuation over the last few years.  My prediction: 6/156, with an injury clause due to past two years arm troubles. And for Snell, I'd go 5/135 (he's more than a year older, almost two years older than Glasnow at the time of contract).  

Obviously supply and demand dynamics can force teams to over-spend rational market value, but in an offseason that figures to be somewhat weighed down due to revenue concerns and several mentions of spending constraints across the industry, I suspect buyers will have more leverage, especially since there are quite a few options in the FA marketing this year, compared to past years.  

If the Red Sox signed Fried for 10% over any of these amounts I'd feel pretty happy about it. Starts to get dicey by +20%.

In my mind it's down to Fried or Snell. Either would be great, though I would give Snell more than 5 years.

Max Fried is fourth in baseball in RA9 WAR since 2021. Outside of the two starts before he hit the IL, where he had clearly diminished stuff, and the two starts after he came back, where he had clearly diminished command, he had a 2.80 ERA.

Age will probably keep him from getting up into the 7/200 range, but if his arm looks healthy, he’s probably getting something close to the Rodon contract.