Predicting The 2025 Opening Day Roster

baring anything concerning on his physical Fried is probably getting something closer to 192/6

I know for these types of players it does not matter but Snell does not cost us a draft pick.

Saying they were in on Yamamoto is definitely a stretch…

Hi all, 

Long-time lurker on this forum and decided to finally throw my hat into the ring. Please let me know if a more extensive introduction is needed. I promise to limit the Dombrowski vs. Bloom pot stirring and will only ask for periodic updates on Noah Song. 

Qualifying offer decisions:

1. I would extend a QO to Nick Pivetta. I know this conversation is getting hashed out in another thread. And as others have pointed out there, Nick performs exceptionally well on the new-age pitch design metrics. For example, on the Pitching+ metric, Nick is tied with Zach Wheeler for the best score (108) and bests Dylan Cease (107), George Kirby (106), and Tarik Skubal (106). I expect another team will take a chance on Nick and will bank on the Red Sox' history of poor pitching development. I would expect Nick to receive a similarly sized contract to Chris Bassett's. 
2. I would not extend a QO to TON. I am concerned about his extensive injury history and do not expect TON to receive more than a 1-2 year deal. Also, Tyler was pretty mediocre at Fenway with a 40% strikeout rate and a WRC+ just slightly above average. Finally, his defense and speed are beginning to deteriorate. I think a LF with some ability to play first would fit the roster better.
   

 Free agent signings / trades: 

1. In an ideal-world, the Red Sox sign Soto to 12 / 500. I only give the Sox a 1/5 chance, with relatively even odds across the big market teams. The remaining items assume we miss out on signing Soto. 
2. A more likely scenario: sign Anthony Santander to 4 / 85. He offers similar traits to the current iteration of TON (29-year old, bat-first slugger who hits lefties well). But Santander offers greater durability and he has played an occasional first base
3. Sign Nate Eovaldi to 3/63. I'd expect this signing will placate some of the fans calling for an ace 
4. Sign Andrew Kitteridge (2/10) and Caleb Ferguson (1/5). Both RP score well on the previously mentioned Stuff+ metrics and both relievers have experience in the AL east
   
5. Sign Carson Kelly (3/15) and Danny Jansen (1/5). I like Connor Wong, but many of the top-performing teams continue to roll out defensive-specialist catchers. And I expect Teel will take over in late 2025. To minimize any turmoil with succession, I would trade Wong now to a team seeking an offensive-minded backup catcher
6. Which transitions me to the aforementioned Connor Wong trade. Trade Wong to the Cubs for Brandon Birdsell and Keegan Thompson. The Cubs had horrific catcher production in 2024 (negative WAR with a 69 WRC+), and are generally over-indexed to defensive-first infielders. The Cubs are also facing a 40 man roster crunch. 
7. Another NL Central team also fits the Red Sox well - the Reds. The Reds are seeking an immediate overhaul of their outfield and have an abundance of young controllable pitchers. A trade of Rhett Lowder (20-25m surplus) for Wilyer (likely similar) would benefit both sides. I would attach Richard Fitts to facilitate this trade.  
8. Side note: I like the previously mentioned trade of Masa for Willson Contreras. As mentioned on the pod though, Masa's contract is underwater (likely 30m or so) with Contreras' contract only slightly (5m or so) underwater. To trade Masa for Willson would therefore require attaching a high-upside prospect (maybe Miguel Bleis?) and/or paying down Masa's contract. Alternative 1-1 fits for Masa could include Robbie Ray, Nick Castellanos, or Jordan Hicks. I'll also note that Luis Castillo's contract is heading underwater quickly. 

soxcontrol - welcome!

That’s an interesting suggestion of Santander - he certainly is an alternative to the O’Neill, Teoscar group in free agency if they want someone in that group (or if they move Yoshida/Abreu etc). He’s a switch hitter, but would have to imagine his righty stats would be benefit from going from the farthest wall in baseball to the shortest.

I don’t know about him, Eovaldi, and Kittredge specifically, but I’d tend to agree that more moderate size free agent signings is more likely what we’re going to see. As you note it keeps the prospect powder dry, and they keep the money investment relatively short.

I feel like the Pirates are going to be quite active on the trade market this offseason, and they would seem to match up well with us in some areas. They already have a starting rotation with Skenes, Jones, and Ortiz (all league minimum) at 1-3, and Keller at 4. Then they have Chandler, Braxton, and Harrington seemingly ready to burst on the scene in 2025. The problem is their lineup. They really need a lot of help. Would be a shame to let that rotation go to waste, so I feel like there's a sense of urgency to add quality in the lineup. But it's Pittsburgh, so they're not likely to spend on quality in the FA market. They have massive holes at 1B, 3B, and RF. Abreu could be a nice get for them, and I imagine they'd be all over Casas, too. They're also probably desperate to unload Hayes, who remains a stellar defender at 3B and a strong batter vs LHP, but was absolutely unplayable at the plate vs RHP last season. He's committed for five more seasons at 8.8M, which is a massive problem for a team that eschews spending. I imagine if a team were willing to take Hayes back in a deal (even if they end up DFA'ing him and swallowing the LT hit), they could buy some assets there. Not saying we should do that (there aren't many worse uses of an active roster spot than a 3B-only short-side-of-a-platoon player), but I could see one of the big spending clubs willing to swallow that whale to add value to a trade for one of the Pirates young SP studs.  If Hayes doesn't rebound to at least prior year levels vs RHP next year, PIT may even just DFA him.

They were willing to trade Priester for Yorke, indicating their willingness to trade from strength, even for a mid-prospect like Yorke.  I wonder if Abreu, who's a significantly better asset than Yorke (Wilyer would seem to be a consensus Top 100 guy if he were still eligible), could be swapped for Braxton.  And we could backfill Abreu's spot on the roster with someone like Grichuk on a two-year deal--a competent RFer and a strong RHH bat who could slide into Refsnyder's role next year. We'd be trading on RF defense in exchange for another strong SP asset, but Grichuk's a decent fielder with OF versatility.  

  Letting Lester go at 30 was a huge mistake; the hole his departure created led to other mistakes.  Lester gave the Cubs 1002.2 innings over six years with a 3.86 ERA and  1.248 WHIP; only his age 36 year was poor.  In his second year with the Cubs he was #2 for Cy Young, and another year #9. 
 They should have offered Lester a big pile of money for 4-5 years.

Wilyer for Lowder is my favorite fake trade. The Reds are perhaps the single most desperate team for a minimum salary OF.

Lowder and a mid tier signing like Pivetta or Eovaldi and I would love the rotation. Solid top five with multiple top 100 prospects in the process of graduating as depth

You are correct. It was a mistake not to sign a hometown hero destined to have his number retired. I'm not saying it was the right move; I'm saying that's how this front office rolls.

If the past is prologue, they are not signing a starter over 30 to a long term deal. Not this year.

I think the Red Sox had serious interest in signing Yamamoto. Whether or not they had a chance to do so it's another question.

Imanaga is 30. They're not keen on that.