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Predicting The 2025 Opening Day Roster
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 27, 2024 1:15:26 GMT -5
Is there any way to sign Alex bregman without trading Casas??? Who are you asking? It's not like any of us are decision makers, lol. Unless you know something I dont know, lol. If I had to venture a guess, though. it's possible but extremely unlikely. Theyd have to dump Yoshida for that to work, DH Devers with Casas at 2b and Bregman at 3b, but why bother? Doubt the Sox want Devers DHing at this point unless his health requires it. Also, while Bregman is a nice upgrade defensively he didnt exactly have his best offensive season. Not sure that hes the guy to give big bucks for RH power. If be concerned about how his bat ages. At this point Yoshida coming off surgery won't be tradeable, so it's Devers at 3b and Casas at 1b. Maybe next year thecre power comes from Vlad Jr. Doesnt do much for the defense although I think Vlad Jr can play either corner, whatever that means but that bat would be really lethal at Fenway and give them their best RH cleanup hitter since JD Martinez and Manny before him. By winter 2025 Yoshida could become more tradeable. |
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Post by 0ap0 on Oct 28, 2024 8:31:16 GMT -5
The athletic predicts frieds contract at 6/174, I would totally be ok with the Red Sox giving him that They also have snell at 3/105 which I would do a hundred times out of a hundred shorter term and no draft pick compensation As far as I can tell, Fried is the left-handed version of Houck, except the latter is two years younger - and much less expensive if that estimate is to be believed. A second, left-handed, Houck would be a good thing to have, no? |
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Post by awalkinthepark on Oct 28, 2024 13:44:38 GMT -5
Is there any way to sign Alex bregman without trading Casas??? Who are you asking? It's not like any of us are decision makers, lol. Unless you know something I dont know, lol. If I had to venture a guess, though. it's possible but extremely unlikely. Theyd have to dump Yoshida for that to work, DH Devers with Casas at 2b and Bregman at 3b, but why bother? Doubt the Sox want Devers DHing at this point unless his health requires it. Also, while Bregman is a nice upgrade defensively he didnt exactly have his best offensive season. Not sure that hes the guy to give big bucks for RH power. If be concerned about how his bat ages. At this point Yoshida coming off surgery won't be tradeable, so it's Devers at 3b and Casas at 1b. Maybe next year thecre power comes from Vlad Jr. Doesnt do much for the defense although I think Vlad Jr can play either corner, whatever that means but that bat would be really lethal at Fenway and give them their best RH cleanup hitter since JD Martinez and Manny before him. By winter 2025 Yoshida could become more tradeable. Sometimes people suggest something that makes me think I am looking at something completely different than they are, and signing Alex Bregman is one of those things. We gave out the 2nd largest contract to a third baseman ever. If that doesn't say 'we are set at third' I don't really know what would. |
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Post by incandenza on Oct 28, 2024 13:58:39 GMT -5
Who are you asking? It's not like any of us are decision makers, lol. Unless you know something I dont know, lol. If I had to venture a guess, though. it's possible but extremely unlikely. Theyd have to dump Yoshida for that to work, DH Devers with Casas at 2b and Bregman at 3b, but why bother? Doubt the Sox want Devers DHing at this point unless his health requires it. Also, while Bregman is a nice upgrade defensively he didnt exactly have his best offensive season. Not sure that hes the guy to give big bucks for RH power. If be concerned about how his bat ages. At this point Yoshida coming off surgery won't be tradeable, so it's Devers at 3b and Casas at 1b. Maybe next year thecre power comes from Vlad Jr. Doesnt do much for the defense although I think Vlad Jr can play either corner, whatever that means but that bat would be really lethal at Fenway and give them their best RH cleanup hitter since JD Martinez and Manny before him. By winter 2025 Yoshida could become more tradeable. Sometimes people suggest something that makes me think I am looking at something completely different than they are, and signing Alex Bregman is one of those things. We gave out the 2nd largest contract to a third baseman ever. If that doesn't say 'we are set at third' I don't really know what would. I agree with you. But I think I sort of get where others are coming from. The "problem" the Red Sox have is that they are set at every field position with either an above-average regular, a top 50 prospect on the cusp of the majors, or both. So if they're going to improve at any of those positions notably through free agency they'll have to do some creative re-jiggering, and moving their weakest defensive player off his position is a plausible way to do it.
So I kinda get what people are trying to do. I just don't think this particular gambit makes a lot of sense. Bregman is already going to be 31 and some of his numbers are already showing signs of decline; he'll be way too expensive; I think Devers' defensive weakness is overrated; adding Bregman at the expense of Yoshida or Casas, as has been suggested, is robbing Peter to pay Paul; and it would add a massive long-term contract that'll clog up the long-term payroll situation for a very marginal upgrade.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Oct 28, 2024 14:57:31 GMT -5
Sometimes people suggest something that makes me think I am looking at something completely different than they are, and signing Alex Bregman is one of those things. We gave out the 2nd largest contract to a third baseman ever. If that doesn't say 'we are set at third' I don't really know what would. I agree with you. But I think I sort of get where others are coming from. The "problem" the Red Sox have is that they are set at every field position with either an above-average regular, a top 50 prospect on the cusp of the majors, or both. So if they're going to improve at any of those positions notably through free agency they'll have to do some creative re-jiggering, and moving their weakest defensive player off his position is a plausible way to do it.
So I kinda get what people are trying to do. I just don't think this particular gambit makes a lot of sense. Bregman is already going to be 31 and some of his numbers are already showing signs of decline; he'll be way too expensive; I think Devers' defensive weakness is overrated; adding Bregman at the expense of Yoshida or Casas, as has been suggested, is robbing Peter to pay Paul; and it would add a massive long-term contract that'll clog up the long-term payroll situation for a very marginal upgrade.
The Devers injury stuff this year was kinda concerning. Although the team conveyed he just needs some rest over the offseason and he should be fine. Hopefully that was just a fluke, but if the shoulder stuff pops up again severely next year we might need to re-visit this conversation. In a fantasy world you'd have an elite defensive third baseman like Bregman and be able to move Devers to DH in part to keep him healthy all year, but in reality there would be so many moving pieces here (where does Yoshida go?), and as you note so much money involved I just don't know how you'd make it work. If we had the Dodgers budget maybe it's a different story and you say f' it |
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Post by GyIantosca on Oct 28, 2024 15:42:52 GMT -5
I'm in on Vlad Jr. The FO needs to monitor that.
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Post by GyIantosca on Oct 28, 2024 15:45:15 GMT -5
Man that Bowden article is completely disconnected from reality. 7/204 for Pete Alonso, 7/150 for Santander and 2/26 for Verdugo were some real howlers. He has Rhys Hoskins who signed for 1/17 with a 1/17 player option, opting out and getting a better deal coming off a replacement level season. Huh? And Nick Pivetta continues to be weirdly disrespected in these national free agent articles, not even getting a mention. If any team is dumb enough to give Pete Alonso 7/204 to be a 2 WAR 1st baseman who has been regressing every year for 3 years now I would be very shocked. That's also close to double what I've seen anyone else say on Santander and the Verdugo and Hoskins there are just no words. Bowden is a bozo. Yeah the Mets owner |
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Post by blizzards39 on Oct 28, 2024 16:36:47 GMT -5
Sometimes people suggest something that makes me think I am looking at something completely different than they are, and signing Alex Bregman is one of those things. We gave out the 2nd largest contract to a third baseman ever. If that doesn't say 'we are set at third' I don't really know what would. I agree with you. But I think I sort of get where others are coming from. The "problem" the Red Sox have is that they are set at every field position with either an above-average regular, a top 50 prospect on the cusp of the majors, or both. So if they're going to improve at any of those positions notably through free agency they'll have to do some creative re-jiggering, and moving their weakest defensive player off his position is a plausible way to do it.
So I kinda get what people are trying to do. I just don't think this particular gambit makes a lot of sense. Bregman is already going to be 31 and some of his numbers are already showing signs of decline; he'll be way too expensive; I think Devers' defensive weakness is overrated; adding Bregman at the expense of Yoshida or Casas, as has been suggested, is robbing Peter to pay Paul; and it would add a massive long-term contract that'll clog up the long-term payroll situation for a very marginal upgrade.
I dont really see much of a decline. Anyway, Here ia thing on Bregman. Hes a RH with some power that dosnt K and plays good defence. These are the 4 things sox are missing. The negative is Bregmans greatest value comes from defence at 3B. In a perfect world Devers is healthier and maybe that shows a bit in his defence. And Campbell and or Grissim mimic bregmans offencive production. Still comes down to then fact though that the Sox need more impact RH bats, need to K less and need to play better defence. Any player ghat has all of these traits should be considered. |
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Oct 28, 2024 16:42:04 GMT -5
Sometimes people suggest something that makes me think I am looking at something completely different than they are, and signing Alex Bregman is one of those things. We gave out the 2nd largest contract to a third baseman ever. If that doesn't say 'we are set at third' I don't really know what would. I agree with you. But I think I sort of get where others are coming from. The "problem" the Red Sox have is that they are set at every field position with either an above-average regular, a top 50 prospect on the cusp of the majors, or both. So if they're going to improve at any of those positions notably through free agency they'll have to do some creative re-jiggering, and moving their weakest defensive player off his position is a plausible way to do it.
So I kinda get what people are trying to do. I just don't think this particular gambit makes a lot of sense. Bregman is already going to be 31 and some of his numbers are already showing signs of decline; he'll be way too expensive; I think Devers' defensive weakness is overrated; adding Bregman at the expense of Yoshida or Casas, as has been suggested, is robbing Peter to pay Paul; and it would add a massive long-term contract that'll clog up the long-term payroll situation for a very marginal upgrade.
I just don't see Bregman as that much of an improvement at the cost he is going to demand. I felt the same way about Springer. I don't know how they re-configure this team to improve defense and offense, and it's not like Yoshida coming off a surgery has a ton of excess value, ditto with Casas who had a nebulous injury that he may never fully recover from, just learn how to manage. I think Casas really is the wildcard, when healthy he can provide a ton of excess value, especially because he's not going to agree to any extension in the near term, but if he isn't healthy, well, that is all moot. The outfield defense will sort itself out, the infield? Suspect until proven otherwise. But the Yankees have proven that defense isn't a must when you have offensive production. O'Neil is as good as gone, because someone will give him more, and honestly his streaky performance and poor defensive output this year puts him on the outside looking in here. I don't think you can trade a Duran, or Abreu in the offseason, unless it's for a can't miss haul, so those are decisions best made mid-season once the kids have shown their mettle. I'm leery of hitching any hope on Story, or Meyer, both of whom I like, but they are both walking injuries waiting to happen. Pivetta is basically a safety valve sign, if things don't materialize, he's fine in a pinch, but won't give me the warm fuzzies either way. So we wait, and I hope for a quick Dodgers win. And then we wait to see what happens, of which I have no idea honestly which direction this club will take. |
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Oct 28, 2024 20:34:22 GMT -5
In a fantasy world you'd. . .be able to move Devers to DH in part to keep him healthy all year , but in reality that probably has no effect on his shoulder.FTFY. |
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Oct 30, 2024 11:22:43 GMT -5
FYI:
https://www.reddit.com/r/redsox/comments/1gf0j84/im_alex_speier_a_sports_reporter_for_the_boston/
EDIT: there's a lot of nuggets in this, but was struck by Speier saying as an aside answering a question about the Nomar trade, "Privately, team officials worried in July 2024 that their infield defense might be the worst in big league history." I don't think the Sox will actually acquire say an Alex Bregman type, but man if they were that despondent about the defense a few months ago I can see how they at least maybe bounced it around internally. Caveat of no Trevor Story at the time, but that's a bleak assessment
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Post by melvinhoggs on Oct 30, 2024 12:01:31 GMT -5
FYI: https://www.reddit.com/r/redsox/comments/1gf0j84/im_alex_speier_a_sports_reporter_for_the_boston/ Interesting that he said in one comment, re: Yamamoto "my understanding is the bidding vastly exceeded their expectations and they weren't particularly close."
I feel like that's a departure from some supposed sources saying the Red Sox were right there offering $300M+ with a couple other teams and at the end of the day Yamamoto just wanted to be a Dodger. We'll never know for sure, but I don't think Speier would characterize a $300M+ offer as not particularly close.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 30, 2024 12:17:47 GMT -5
FYI: https://www.reddit.com/r/redsox/comments/1gf0j84/im_alex_speier_a_sports_reporter_for_the_boston/ EDIT: there's a lot of nuggets in this, but was struck by Speier saying as an aside answering a question about the Nomar trade, "Privately, team officials worried in July 2024 that their infield defense might be the worst in big league history." I don't think the Sox will actually acquire say an Alex Bregman type, but man if they were that despondent about the defense a few months ago I can see how they at least maybe bounced it around internally. Caveat of no Trevor Story at the time, but that's a bleak assessment I am certain that is a typo and he meant July 2004. |
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Oct 30, 2024 12:23:43 GMT -5
FYI: https://www.reddit.com/r/redsox/comments/1gf0j84/im_alex_speier_a_sports_reporter_for_the_boston/ EDIT: there's a lot of nuggets in this, but was struck by Speier saying as an aside answering a question about the Nomar trade, "Privately, team officials worried in July 2024 that their infield defense might be the worst in big league history." I don't think the Sox will actually acquire say an Alex Bregman type, but man if they were that despondent about the defense a few months ago I can see how they at least maybe bounced it around internally. Caveat of no Trevor Story at the time, but that's a bleak assessment I am certain that is a typo and he meant July 2004. I think you may be correct looking at it again - though the fact that it was believable is probably not great 😂 |
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 30, 2024 12:29:06 GMT -5
FYI: https://www.reddit.com/r/redsox/comments/1gf0j84/im_alex_speier_a_sports_reporter_for_the_boston/ Interesting that he said in one comment, re: Yamamoto "my understanding is the bidding vastly exceeded their expectations and they weren't particularly close."
I feel like that's a departure from some supposed sources saying the Red Sox were right there offering $300M+ with a couple other teams and at the end of the day Yamamoto just wanted to be a Dodger. We'll never know for sure, but I don't think Speier would characterize a $300M+ offer as not particularly close.
I don't remember the exact wording, but I believe there were three different people claiming a source that said they offered close to $300 million.
Yamamoto got 325 with zero deferrals and TWO player opt outs. Those initial reports about the Sox offer may have be wrong, but I think there is a lot of room for a deferral heavy $300 million, or one with team option years, to not be particularly close to the Dodgers offer. For instance, 8/240 with two thirty million team options.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Oct 30, 2024 12:36:18 GMT -5
My question is how did they know the estimated bidding for YY but the past regime supposedly paid twice what the rest of the league valued Yoshida at?
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Post by melvinhoggs on Oct 30, 2024 12:54:14 GMT -5
Interesting that he said in one comment, re: Yamamoto "my understanding is the bidding vastly exceeded their expectations and they weren't particularly close."
I feel like that's a departure from some supposed sources saying the Red Sox were right there offering $300M+ with a couple other teams and at the end of the day Yamamoto just wanted to be a Dodger. We'll never know for sure, but I don't think Speier would characterize a $300M+ offer as not particularly close.
I don't remember the exact wording, but I believe there were three different people claiming a source that said they offered close to $300 million.
Yamamoto got 325 with zero deferrals and TWO player opt outs. Those initial reports about the Sox offer may have be wrong, but I think there is a lot of room for a deferral heavy $300 million, or one with team option years, to not be particularly close to the Dodgers offer. For instance, 8/240 with two thirty million team options.
Definitely possible, though it amounts to the same thing – some possible mischaracterization shenanigans to make it seem like the Red Sox were making more competitive offers than they were. If a source was saying "they offered over $300M, Yamamoto just really wanted to be a Dodger!" but the actual offer was like you say (huge deferrals or only the possibility of reaching $300M with several team options), then it wasn't much of a $300M offer at all.
I don't want to go down the "Red Sox cheap" or "media spin" black hole, I just thought Speier's comment on it was interesting and a lot more dismissive that they were actually in the hunt than other outlets/sources made it seem.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 30, 2024 13:19:46 GMT -5
ZiPS had Yamamoto worth 8/250, 10/290 or 12/320. From the Sox perspective, they had just gotten killed for signing Yoshida to a spreadsheet approved 5/90 deal. So maybe from their perspective they thought they were being quite bold by going along with the spreadsheets again.
The Dodgers final deal with Yamamoto was kinda nuts - it is significantly more player friendly than a flat 12/325 with those giant player options for an undersized pitcher. Despite some commentary to the contrary, the biggest superstars usually do not attract the kind of bidding that makes the efficiency spreadsheets uncomfortable.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 30, 2024 13:25:58 GMT -5
ZiPS had Yamamoto worth 8/250, 10/290 or 12/320. From the Sox perspective, they had just gotten killed for signing Yoshida to a spreadsheet approved 5/90 deal. So maybe from their perspective they thought they were being quite bold by going along with the spreadsheets again. The Dodgers final deal with Yamamoto was kinda nuts - it is significantly more player friendly than a flat 12/325 with those giant player options for an undersized pitcher. Despite some commentary to the contrary, the biggest superstars usually do not attract the kind of bidding that makes the efficiency spreadsheets uncomfortable. Here was the range of total dollar projections for Yamamoto at the beginning of last offseason:
Bowden: $225 million McDaniel: $212 million MLBTR: $225 million FG/Clemens: $196 million FG/crowdsource: $175 million
The Red Sox could have been prepared to go well over the consensus projections of what Yamamoto would get and still not have been close to what he actually got from the Dodgers.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 30, 2024 15:03:23 GMT -5
Posted this in the other thread, but just to consolidate some of Alex Speier's thoughts on spending for this offseason:
Spending in the 5-8 range last season, in luxury tax terms, meant $251-$263 million. The Red Sox were #12 at $223 million.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Oct 30, 2024 15:11:23 GMT -5
^^^ Speier also said he expected them to sign a $100M+ deal this winter. There still may be a great deal of space between that and say, a Corbin Burnes/Max Fried contract, much less a Juan Soto. But that at least makes me inclined to think they walk away with a Top 10 free agent, even if on the lower end of the list. (Who I have no idea)
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 30, 2024 15:13:10 GMT -5
$250M range seems reasonable for them to spend to this year. Not saying it's a slam dunk or that I necessarily expect it but I could see it.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 30, 2024 15:28:42 GMT -5
^^^ Speier also said he expected them to sign a $100M+ deal this winter. There still may be a great deal of space between that and say, a Corbin Burnes/Max Fried contract, much less a Juan Soto. But that at least makes me inclined to think they walk away with a Top 10 free agent, even if on the lower end of the list. (Who I have no idea) What is the list of $100 million free agents this year?
Soto Burnes Fried Snell
Adames Bregman
Flaherty maybe? I doubt Alonso. I don't think there's anyone else.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Oct 30, 2024 15:57:57 GMT -5
^^^ Speier also said he expected them to sign a $100M+ deal this winter. There still may be a great deal of space between that and say, a Corbin Burnes/Max Fried contract, much less a Juan Soto. But that at least makes me inclined to think they walk away with a Top 10 free agent, even if on the lower end of the list. (Who I have no idea) What is the list of $100 million free agents this year?
Soto Burnes Fried Snell
Adames Bregman
Flaherty maybe? I doubt Alonso. I don't think there's anyone else.
I'd be floored if Alonso didn't get $100 million (should he? I don't know, but he probably will). |
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 30, 2024 15:59:10 GMT -5
^^^ Speier also said he expected them to sign a $100M+ deal this winter. There still may be a great deal of space between that and say, a Corbin Burnes/Max Fried contract, much less a Juan Soto. But that at least makes me inclined to think they walk away with a Top 10 free agent, even if on the lower end of the list. (Who I have no idea) What is the list of $100 million free agents this year?
Soto Burnes Fried Snell
Adames Bregman
Flaherty maybe? I doubt Alonso. I don't think there's anyone else.
Sounds about right to me, Flaherty is going to be cutting it close. I could easily see some team giving him 5/100, just takes one team even though 4/80 sounds a hell of a lot more reasonable to me. I'm really not a big Flaherty guy but for some reason I'm feeling like he'll be a Sox. |
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