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Predicting The 2025 Opening Day Roster
ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 30, 2024 16:00:28 GMT -5
What is the list of $100 million free agents this year?
Soto Burnes Fried Snell
Adames Bregman
Flaherty maybe? I doubt Alonso. I don't think there's anyone else.
I'd be floored if Alonso didn't get $100 million (should he? I don't know, but he probably will). He's a 2 WAR 1st baseman, if anyone gives him 100M it'll be a giant mistake. Not saying it won't happen but I don't think it is any sure thing. |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Oct 30, 2024 16:05:56 GMT -5
I'd be floored if Alonso didn't get $100 million (should he? I don't know, but he probably will). He's a 2 WAR 1st baseman, if anyone gives him 100M it'll be a giant mistake. Not saying it won't happen but I don't think it is any sure thing. There's a difference between "a 2 WAR 1st baseman" and "a 1st baseman who was worth 2 WAR last year". He's averaged 3.4 WAR in his five full seasons and while that's not what I would personally expect from him over the duration of his next contract, that is what his agent will be selling to the point where I don't think 6/100 is out of the question at all (and frankly I'm not even sure that's a bad contract). |
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 30, 2024 16:08:21 GMT -5
He's a 2 WAR 1st baseman, if anyone gives him 100M it'll be a giant mistake. Not saying it won't happen but I don't think it is any sure thing. There's a difference between "a 2 WAR 1st baseman" and "a 1st baseman who was worth 2 WAR last year". He's averaged 3.4 WAR in his five full seasons and while that's not what I would personally expect from him over the duration of his next contract, that is what his agent will be selling to the point where I don't think 6/100 is out of the question at all (and frankly I'm not even sure that's a bad contract). He's regressed three years in a row pretty severely so and is turning 30. I don't see his market being very robust. |
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Post by incandenza on Oct 30, 2024 16:12:37 GMT -5
What is the list of $100 million free agents this year?
Soto Burnes Fried Snell
Adames Bregman
Flaherty maybe? I doubt Alonso. I don't think there's anyone else.
I'd be floored if Alonso didn't get $100 million (should he? I don't know, but he probably will). I don't know how he could have a market value much above $50 million, based on the WAR projections. He might overshoot that due to marketability and having a fun nickname, but it's hard for me to imagine him getting *twice* that much. |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Oct 30, 2024 16:45:06 GMT -5
I'd be floored if Alonso didn't get $100 million (should he? I don't know, but he probably will). I don't know how he could have a market value much above $50 million, based on the WAR projections. He might overshoot that due to marketability and having a fun nickname, but it's hard for me to imagine him getting *twice* that much. ZiPS has him at about 2.2 WAR/year over the next three years, that's worth more than $50 million if you go by the ~$7-8m $/WAR figures Fangraphs generally touts. I don't think it's a stretch to suggest that name recognition and demonstrated ceiling can get him roughly that AAV over a longer-term deal. My initial reaction that I'd be floored if he didn't clear $100m is probably too strong, but I'd still bet he gets that if I had to put money on it. I've seen higher AAV numbers thrown out for Christian Walker, who is older and projects to be worse. |
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Post by incandenza on Oct 31, 2024 0:02:32 GMT -5
I don't know how he could have a market value much above $50 million, based on the WAR projections. He might overshoot that due to marketability and having a fun nickname, but it's hard for me to imagine him getting *twice* that much. , that's worth more than $50 million if you go by the ~$7-8m $/WAR figures Fangraphs generally touts. I don't think it's a stretch to suggest that name recognition and demonstrated ceiling can get him roughly that AAV over a longer-term deal. My initial reaction that I'd be floored if he didn't clear $100m is probably too strong, but I'd still bet he gets that if I had to put money on it. I've seen higher AAV numbers thrown out for Christian Walker, who is older and projects to be worse. Where do you see that? I see 2.2 for 2025, 1.7 for 2026, and presumably less than that for 2027. But he was only 2.1 this season despite a 2.8 projection, so those numbers might go down a smidge. I'd guess he projects to have about 6-7 WAR left in the tank. |
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Post by sxfan on Oct 31, 2024 0:16:59 GMT -5
^^^ Speier also said he expected them to sign a $100M+ deal this winter. There still may be a great deal of space between that and say, a Corbin Burnes/Max Fried contract, much less a Juan Soto. But that at least makes me inclined to think they walk away with a Top 10 free agent, even if on the lower end of the list. (Who I have no idea) What is the list of $100 million free agents this year?
Soto Burnes Fried Snell
Adames Bregman
Flaherty maybe? I doubt Alonso. I don't think there's anyone else.
Hatfield floated Adames, which was interesting if they trade Yoshida, but I see the Dodgers being all over him versus them being in on Soto. They need a short stop badly. The guy that makes the most sense is Fried. No LH starter in the rotation, obvious hole. Grew up a Sox fan (I think I heard that somewhere). We'll see if the Sox pivot and spend on relievers and use trade chips for a starter and/or line-up shakeup for a new RH bat. |
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Post by soxfaninnj on Oct 31, 2024 0:28:11 GMT -5
I would offer Soto 15/650
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Post by dmdmd on Oct 31, 2024 5:45:40 GMT -5
ZiPS has him at about 2.2 WAR/year over the next three years, that's worth more than $50 million if you go by the ~$7-8m $/WAR figures Fangraphs generally touts. I don't think it's a stretch to suggest that name recognition and demonstrated ceiling can get him roughly that AAV over a longer-term deal. My initial reaction that I'd be floored if he didn't clear $100m is probably too strong, but I'd still bet he gets that if I had to put money on it. I've seen higher AAV numbers thrown out for Christian Walker, who is older and projects to be worse. Where do you see that? I see 2.2 for 2025, 1.7 for 2026, and presumably less than that for 2027. But he was only 2.1 this season despite a 2.8 projection, so those numbers might go down a smidge. I'd guess he projects to have about 6-7 WAR left in the tank. Unless Boras asks for a crazy unreasonable amount and Alonzo has to settle for one of those short-term contracts Boras has been known to concede to when he’s overestimated the market, I can’t see Alonso not getting $100M, if even only from the Mets. I think WAR gets thrown around too much as the only way to gauge value. There is value in being probably one of the top 5 HR guys in the majors, whether he can field or not. Not saying he’s an ideal fit for the Sox, but Alonzo will have his fans among teams needing pop and players who can drive in runs. measuring |
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 31, 2024 6:56:44 GMT -5
I notice that this site's 2025 projected starting lineup has Campbell tucked in at 2B.
I don't believe that. Campbell had a magical trip through the minors this past season, but (1) he finally cooled off at the very end; and (2) momentum can change over a 5-month offseason. I think he has to re-establish dominance at AAA before he is brought up.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Oct 31, 2024 7:09:03 GMT -5
Where do you see that? I see 2.2 for 2025, 1.7 for 2026, and presumably less than that for 2027. But he was only 2.1 this season despite a 2.8 projection, so those numbers might go down a smidge. I'd guess he projects to have about 6-7 WAR left in the tank. Unless Boras asks for a crazy unreasonable amount and Alonzo has to settle for one of those short-term contracts Boras has been known to concede to when he’s overestimated the market, I can’t see Alonso not getting $100M, if even only from the Mets. I think WAR gets thrown around too much as the only way to gauge value. There is value in being probably one of the top 5 HR guys in the majors, whether he can field or not. Not saying he’s an ideal fit for the Sox, but Alonzo will have his fans among teams needing pop and players who can drive in runs. measuring Zack Scott, former Mets GM (and Red Sox assistant GM) turned consultant and baseball Twitter guy had this to say about Alonso: “I don’t expect him to get that {a mega contract}. But keep in mind that he switched to Boras which likely means Scott sold him on his ability to blow up the 1B market. Since then Pete had a bit of a down year, so maybe Scott has managed Pete’s expectations downward. The difference between a good deal and a bad deal for Pete likely depends on how quickly he’s willing to accept that the moon isn’t within reach.” |
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Post by incandenza on Oct 31, 2024 7:27:15 GMT -5
Where do you see that? I see 2.2 for 2025, 1.7 for 2026, and presumably less than that for 2027. But he was only 2.1 this season despite a 2.8 projection, so those numbers might go down a smidge. I'd guess he projects to have about 6-7 WAR left in the tank. Unless Boras asks for a crazy unreasonable amount and Alonzo has to settle for one of those short-term contracts Boras has been known to concede to when he’s overestimated the market, I can’t see Alonso not getting $100M, if even only from the Mets. I think WAR gets thrown around too much as the only way to gauge value. There is value in being probably one of the top 5 HR guys in the majors, whether he can field or not. Not saying he’s an ideal fit for the Sox, but Alonzo will have his fans among teams needing pop and players who can drive in runs. What free agents have gotten so much more than their WAR projections just because they're "home run guys" in recent years? Last season Soler got 3/42. Teoscar got 1/23. In 2023 Jose Abreu got 3/59. Anthony Rizzo got 2/40. In 2021 Marcell Ozuna got 4/65. Tyler O'Neill came into 2024 with the same ZiPS projection as Alonso had for 2025 and had a big season but no one thinks he's gonna get a $100 million offer. Unless Boras asks for a crazy unreasonable amount and Alonzo has to settle for one of those short-term contracts Boras has been known to concede to when he’s overestimated the market, I can’t see Alonso not getting $100M, if even only from the Mets. I think WAR gets thrown around too much as the only way to gauge value. There is value in being probably one of the top 5 HR guys in the majors, whether he can field or not. Not saying he’s an ideal fit for the Sox, but Alonzo will have his fans among teams needing pop and players who can drive in runs. measuring Zack Scott, former Mets GM (and Red Sox assistant GM) turned consultant and baseball Twitter guy had this to say about Alonso: “I don’t expect him to get that {a mega contract}. But keep in mind that he switched to Boras which likely means Scott sold him on his ability to blow up the 1B market. Since then Pete had a bit of a down year, so maybe Scott has managed Pete’s expectations downward. The difference between a good deal and a bad deal for Pete likely depends on how quickly he’s willing to accept that the moon isn’t within reach.” I believe the timeline is that Alonso was offered a $158 million extension (including 2024) by the Mets; he turned that offer down; and then he switched to Boras. I don't know what happened, but it may be that his old agent recommended he take the extension, Alonso thought he could do better, and felt like he needed Boras to make it happen? But who knows. In any case, having turned down that extension is going to make it emotionally hard to except a much smaller offer, I would imagine. |
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 31, 2024 7:28:39 GMT -5
Unless Boras asks for a crazy unreasonable amount and Alonzo has to settle for one of those short-term contracts Boras has been known to concede to when he’s overestimated the market, I can’t see Alonso not getting $100M, if even only from the Mets. I think WAR gets thrown around too much as the only way to gauge value. There is value in being probably one of the top 5 HR guys in the majors, whether he can field or not. Not saying he’s an ideal fit for the Sox, but Alonzo will have his fans among teams needing pop and players who can drive in runs. measuring Zack Scott, former Mets GM (and Red Sox assistant GM) turned consultant and baseball Twitter guy had this to say about Alonso: “I don’t expect him to get that {a mega contract}. But keep in mind that he switched to Boras which likely means Scott sold him on his ability to blow up the 1B market. Since then Pete had a bit of a down year, so maybe Scott has managed Pete’s expectations downward. The difference between a good deal and a bad deal for Pete likely depends on how quickly he’s willing to accept that the moon isn’t within reach.” He rejected a 7/158M extension from the Mets in 2023 and switched to Boras so something tells me he's shooting for the moon here. Hopefully for his sake he doesn't have visions of those types of $s in his head because he's not likely to get close to that after the year and a half he's had since. I'm going to guess 2-3 years at $20-25AAV is what he'll ultimately get, but it could be worse if Boras and him aren't more reasonable, thinking something like what happened to Chapman/Bellinger last year when they were left waiting around. |
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Post by blizzards39 on Oct 31, 2024 7:39:56 GMT -5
I'd be floored if Alonso didn't get $100 million (should he? I don't know, but he probably will). I don't know how he could have a market value much above $50 million, based on the WAR projections. He might overshoot that due to marketability and having a fun nickname, but it's hard for me to imagine him getting *twice* that much. My guess Alonso lock at 80M. Will be looking for 150 |
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Post by thelpc on Oct 31, 2024 7:52:05 GMT -5
Posted this in the other thread, but just to consolidate some of Alex Speier's thoughts on spending for this offseason:
Spending in the 5-8 range last season, in luxury tax terms, meant $251-$263 million. The Red Sox were #12 at $223 million.
I’m sorry but it’s hard for me to find it encouraging that the Boston Red Sox, one of the most profitable teams in Major League Baseball with some of the highest ticket prices in the game *might* be in the top 5-8 spenders in the league. |
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 31, 2024 7:54:53 GMT -5
I would offer Soto 15/650 Here goes nothing… I guarantee that the Red Sox will not sign Juan Soto |
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Oct 31, 2024 8:21:46 GMT -5
Zack Scott, former Mets GM (and Red Sox assistant GM) turned consultant and baseball Twitter guy had this to say about Alonso: “I don’t expect him to get that {a mega contract}. But keep in mind that he switched to Boras which likely means Scott sold him on his ability to blow up the 1B market. Since then Pete had a bit of a down year, so maybe Scott has managed Pete’s expectations downward. The difference between a good deal and a bad deal for Pete likely depends on how quickly he’s willing to accept that the moon isn’t within reach.” He rejected a 7/158M extension from the Mets in 2023 and switched to Boras so something tells me he's shooting for the moon here. Hopefully for his sake he doesn't have visions of those types of $s in his head because he's not likely to get close to that after the year and a half he's had since. I'm going to guess 2-3 years at $20-25AAV is what he'll ultimately get, but it could be worse if Boras and him aren't more reasonable, thinking something like what happened to Chapman/Bellinger last year when they were left waiting around. With a QO likely involved from the Mets hanging over a would be buyer as well. Yeah this feels like he holds out for four months before doing like a 1+1 or something to go back to the Mets in March |
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 31, 2024 8:49:18 GMT -5
Take it for what it's worth but speier in his reddit AMA was asked which of the big 4 is most likely to be dealt and he answered with Teel. Paraphrasing here but said he doesn't think Anthony or Campbell are available and that Teel doesn't have the ceiling that Mayer does.
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Post by blizzards39 on Oct 31, 2024 8:57:59 GMT -5
I would offer Soto 15/650 Here goes nothing… I guarantee that the Red Sox will not sign Juan Soto But say they were. And then leak that offered 9 at 40 |
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Post by pappyman99 on Oct 31, 2024 11:33:06 GMT -5
I’d actually prefer Soto at 12 years $620 million. Keep those years down to 12 or under
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Post by willacky on Oct 31, 2024 12:20:49 GMT -5
Pay up for Soto, sign a few relievers then trade for high-end SPs using the logjams of OFs and IFs.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Oct 31, 2024 13:03:15 GMT -5
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 31, 2024 13:09:24 GMT -5
I think Campbell has an option. He used one in 23 and 24.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 31, 2024 13:14:33 GMT -5
I think Campbell has an option. He used one in 23 and 24. According to his player page on this site they're showing 23 and 24 for options and that he has one remaining. Fangraphs also lists him with one remaining so I think you are correct. |
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Post by itinerantherb on Oct 31, 2024 14:20:40 GMT -5
I’d actually prefer Soto at 12 years $620 million. Keep those years down to 12 or under Without deferrals, that would the highest contract ever by around $160M. Soto is awesome, but unless he's also a #1 SP, they're not going to allocate 20% of their payroll to one guy. I don't think Soto is going to get anything near that in real value. |
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