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9/23-9/25 Red Sox @ Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Sept 26, 2024 11:15:54 GMT -5
I don’t know about you guys but I, for one, can’t wait to hear Sam Kennedy on Monday (?). The “This is unacceptable” and “It’s on us” and “We owe it to our fans” are going to make laugh and cry at the same time. Here's what I would say if I were the Red Sox spokesperson:
"Listen, we really f'd up with that Sale trade. The thing is, we didn't really believe in this team this year. So we traded away Sale for future value. What's more, that future value turns out to be not that valuable because, again, we underestimated our own guys, like Hamilton and Campbell, who themselves have this team set at 2B for the long-term.
"We also spent money on extensions and on the Hendriks contract that weren't really going to help us in 2024 because, again, we had no faith in this team to win. If we'd spent that instead on winning the bidding for Flaherty, Lugo, or Imanaga, there's a good chance we'd have made the playoffs. Oopsies!
"Also Cora, the manager we just extended, has a pattern of his teams collapsing down the stretch, and we're gonna try to figure out what's up with that this offseason."
I'm pretty sure you'd be lying if you said that. The world isn't split into neat knuckle-dragging dichotomies of "Got zero faith in these bums" and "Allz IN!!," and it's fundamentally disingenuous to ignore what went right (in terms of decision outcomes) and to only focus on what went wrong. Or worse, to speculate that the Sox, alone of all ballclubs, should have perfect decision making. They traded Sale for Grissom before Hamilton was called up and before Campbell went on his improbable tear through AA and AAA. At the end of 2023, did anyone have Campbell pegged as a sure-fire MLB player in 2025? They spent money on Giolito (Rotation buffer, possible ace, and innings eater otherwise). They spent for Hendricks to take on a post-Jansen role. Because they were already also spending money on Jansen and Martin. They didn't sign position players to disadvantageous long-term deals, partially because of the MiL talent, which has resulted in people speculating whether to trade Abreu, and bemoaning the fact that Yoshida is the DH. Can you imagine if we had an injured or underperforming OF type that we had to pay and play for the next 2 years? (I remember people earnestly saying we really really needed Duvall back and that our OF defense would collapse without Verdugo.) Instead they jettisoned a failing Verdugo and replaced him with O'Neill. (Sweeter than that, the Yanks got Verdugo and we got Fitts.) *** The bottom line is the 2024 team had flaws. But with a healthy Giolito, Whitlock, Story, Casas, and Devers, they're likely a post-season team. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 26, 2024 11:28:37 GMT -5
One thing I'd like to note during postmortem season is that by BaseRuns (basically pythagorean record except you go the additional route of replacing actual runs with component stats) the Red Sox are supposed to be 3 games out of the #1 seed this year and 5 games ahead of the third wild card. The boys were good enough, just wasn't their year.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 26, 2024 11:34:40 GMT -5
One thing I'd like to note during postmortem season is that by BaseRuns (basically pythagorean record except you go the additional route of replacing actual runs with component stats) the Red Sox are supposed to be 3 games out of the #1 seed this year and 5 games ahead of the third wild card. The boys were good enough, just wasn't their year. Makes you wonder if the answer this offseason isn't to continue to play it semi conservative. There is definitely a good collection of talent on the current roster with what we hope are serious difference makers knocking on the door at AAA too. Many on here, myself included would like to see a splashy offseason but at the same time it feels like a team a couple of moderate tweaks away from being serious contenders. Obviously a conservative offseason isn't going to placate the media and pink hatters but screw em, they aren't the reason to make moves. I'm very interested to see what they do this offseason as I'm sure everyone on the board is. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 26, 2024 12:07:19 GMT -5
I don’t know about you guys but I, for one, can’t wait to hear Sam Kennedy on Monday (?). The “This is unacceptable” and “It’s on us” and “We owe it to our fans” are going to make laugh and cry at the same time. Here's what I would say if I were the Red Sox spokesperson: "Listen, we really f'd up with that Sale trade. The thing is, we didn't really believe in this team this year. So we traded away Sale for future value. What's more, that future value turns out to be not that valuable because, again, we underestimated our own guys, like Hamilton and Campbell, who themselves have this team set at 2B for the long-term. "We also spent money on extensions and on the Hendriks contract that weren't really going to help us in 2024 because, again, we had no faith in this team to win. If we'd spent that instead on winning the bidding for Flaherty, Lugo, or Imanaga, there's a good chance we'd have made the playoffs. Oopsies! "Also Cora, the manager we just extended, has a pattern of his teams collapsing down the stretch, and we're gonna try to figure out what's up with that this offseason."
Lol. Although in fairness I dont think anybody foresaw Campbell's meteoric rise. |
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Post by tjb21 on Sept 26, 2024 12:12:33 GMT -5
Okay I no longer judge your lack of mettle if you root for the Red Sox to tank. That 9th slot is tantalizingly within reach... It’s the only thing worth rooting for. |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 26, 2024 12:34:02 GMT -5
One thing I'd like to note during postmortem season is that by BaseRuns (basically pythagorean record except you go the additional route of replacing actual runs with component stats) the Red Sox are supposed to be 3 games out of the #1 seed this year and 5 games ahead of the third wild card. The boys were good enough, just wasn't their year. I wonder how this squares with their being only 6th in the AL by pitching WAR and 8th by positional WAR? Shouldn't WAR more or less align with BaseRuns?
I also wonder how much the bad situational hitting should be taken as simply bad luck. I know those kinds of stats are mostly non-predictive, but I wouldn't rule out a failure of approach, mentality, or coaching there. In which case they would "deserve" to underperform their BaseRuns.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 26, 2024 13:14:46 GMT -5
One thing I'd like to note during postmortem season is that by BaseRuns (basically pythagorean record except you go the additional route of replacing actual runs with component stats) the Red Sox are supposed to be 3 games out of the #1 seed this year and 5 games ahead of the third wild card. The boys were good enough, just wasn't their year. I wonder how this squares with their being only 6th in the AL by pitching WAR and 8th by positional WAR? Shouldn't WAR more or less align with BaseRuns? I think the outcomes on our batted balls given up is the difference here. WAR assumes pitchers all get the same results on balls in play. They will adjust for quality of fielding play, but a lazy flyball caught for an out and a screaming line drive double will net out the same on team WAR and differently on BaseRuns |
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 26, 2024 13:22:21 GMT -5
Tampa up 3 on Detroit. If Tampa wins, then we pass them in the Tankathon standings with a 1-2 finish. We then get #9 if SF goes 2-1 hosting St Louis. They have Snell in one of them
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 26, 2024 13:25:54 GMT -5
One thing I'd like to note during postmortem season is that by BaseRuns (basically pythagorean record except you go the additional route of replacing actual runs with component stats) the Red Sox are supposed to be 3 games out of the #1 seed this year and 5 games ahead of the third wild card. The boys were good enough, just wasn't their year. Makes you wonder if the answer this offseason isn't to continue to play it semi conservative. There is definitely a good collection of talent on the current roster with what we hope are serious difference makers knocking on the door at AAA too. Many on here, myself included would like to see a splashy offseason but at the same time it feels like a team a couple of moderate tweaks away from being serious contenders. Obviously a conservative offseason isn't going to placate the media and pink hatters but screw em, they aren't the reason to make moves. I'm very interested to see what they do this offseason as I'm sure everyone on the board is. ...and those moderate tweaks can be accomplished by judicious investment and divestment in the talent bank they've developed. At least that's my thinking. This will be an important off-season for the FO. If Anthony and Campbell do start in the ML next season, then with a healthy Story and Giolito that's a solid base to build off of. They can add to that with a QO of Pivetta - there can never be enough starting pitching. As for O'Neill, they should let him go since they will have a plethora of outfield talent if they plan to have those two up from the minors. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 26, 2024 13:42:55 GMT -5
Makes you wonder if the answer this offseason isn't to continue to play it semi conservative. There is definitely a good collection of talent on the current roster with what we hope are serious difference makers knocking on the door at AAA too. Many on here, myself included would like to see a splashy offseason but at the same time it feels like a team a couple of moderate tweaks away from being serious contenders. Obviously a conservative offseason isn't going to placate the media and pink hatters but screw em, they aren't the reason to make moves. I'm very interested to see what they do this offseason as I'm sure everyone on the board is. ...and those moderate tweaks can be accomplished by judicious investment and divestment in the talent bank they've developed. At least that's my thinking. This will be an important off-season for the FO. If Anthony and Campbell do start in the ML next season, then with a healthy Story and Giolito that's a solid base to build off of. They can add to that with a QO of Pivetta - there can never be enough starting pitching. As for O'Neill, they should let him go since they will have a plethora of outfield talent if they plan to have those two up from the minors. For sure, when I say moderate I mean spend that money they have up to their max budget but it just may not have to be on the likes of a burnes or fried although I wouldn't be upset if they did. Could be more along the types of Pivetta, manaea or guys in that tier. It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to maintain that payroll flexibility that's for sure. |
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,792
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Post by asm18 on Sept 26, 2024 14:13:58 GMT -5
The fact that we can point to a handful of things as “if these go the other way we have a good chance of making the playoffs” - I can’t quite parse whether that’s praise or indictment of Breslow. The team he constructed, were it to have some better injury luck (or maybe better luck in general) gets into October. Does that he mean he knew what he was doing? Or is it the reverse - that this was a talented group and his repeated focus on future wins as opposed to 2024 wins ultimately did this team a disservice?
We often speak of GM’s and their career incentives affecting the team - such as a GM with an expiring contract or on the hot seat acting desperate to save his or her job. I kinda wonder if for Breslow if it was the opposite - he just landed this gig after a grueling search, with all the job short-term job security in the world short of committing a felony. Maybe in his mind, how this year worked out ultimately wasn’t as important to his own tenure here or job security compared to what’s coming down the pipe? I mean look at Chaim - if he gets to the ALCS (2 games from the World Series!) in Year 4 instead of Year 2, he’s still probably here!
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 26, 2024 14:25:08 GMT -5
Rays blow the lead one pitch after perhaps the worst ball call on an appealed check swing I've ever seen
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Post by incandenza on Sept 26, 2024 15:30:18 GMT -5
Rays blow the lead one pitch after perhaps the worst ball call on an appealed check swing I've ever seen Dangit. You'd think they were making a Netflix documentary about the Tigers or something. |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 26, 2024 17:48:40 GMT -5
My 2 cents: the management of the pitching staff - starting and relief - is what I'd say is the source of the problem. The team has thrown 602 relief innings this year. For eight 1-inning relief pitchers that is about 75 innings for each of them. That's not possible, it's planning to fail. Yet that's only 10th in MLB, behind such teams as the Diamondbacks, Guardians, Dodgers, Brewers, and - leading the majors - the Tigers. Why can those teams handle it but the Red Sox can't? |
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Post by finaliz3d on Sept 26, 2024 18:10:21 GMT -5
My 2 cents: the management of the pitching staff - starting and relief - is what I'd say is the source of the problem. The team has thrown 602 relief innings this year. For eight 1-inning relief pitchers that is about 75 innings for each of them. That's not possible, it's planning to fail. Yet that's only 10th in MLB, behind such teams as the Diamondbacks, Guardians, Dodgers, Brewers, and - leading the majors - the Tigers. Why can those teams handle it but the Red Sox can't? Well, pretty much all of those teams ahead of us have bad rotations, but have great bullpens or have just bad rotations and bad bullpens, this defines the White Sox, Marlins, Brewers, Giants, Dodgers sort of, Rays sort of, Diamondbacks, Guardians... Tigers only don't fit this category because Skubal has 6 fWAR by himself making them the 6th best rotation in the league. The Red Sox have top 10 bullpen usage while having the #12 rotation by fWAR, 16th in innings, while being the 16th best bullpen by fWAR, 10th in usage. It's just a mediocre team that does nothing particularly well, and mostly doesn't do anything bad except for defense. There aren't teams that use their bullpen a lot that also have a great starting rotation. The Braves for example have one of the best bullpens but don't have to use it much because they have a great rotation that has thrown the 4th most innings. The Red Sox aren't far, but they need to build a better bullpen and rotation this offseason. |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 26, 2024 18:23:37 GMT -5
Chris Martin's last appearance before his mid-season injury was 7/3, and then Slaten's was 7/7. Through 7/3, the Red Sox were 3rd in the majors in reliever WAR and 6th in ERA. To patch things together, they added Garcia and Sims, who have put up 8.78 and 6.92 ERAs respectively.
So here is my Two-Point Plan for fixing the bullpen:
1) Don't have their two best relievers be injured at the same time.
2) When they make mid-season upgrades through trade, don't have those guys be terrible.
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Sept 26, 2024 19:52:59 GMT -5
The fact that we can point to a handful of things as “if these go the other way we have a good chance of making the playoffs” - I can’t quite parse whether that’s praise or indictment of Breslow. The team he constructed, were it to have some better injury luck (or maybe better luck in general) gets into October. Does that he mean he knew what he was doing? Or is it the reverse - that this was a talented group and his repeated focus on future wins as opposed to 2024 wins ultimately did this team a disservice? We often speak of GM’s and their career incentives affecting the team - such as a GM with an expiring contract or on the hot seat acting desperate to save his or her job. I kinda wonder if for Breslow if it was the opposite - he just landed this gig after a grueling search, with all the job short-term job security in the world short of committing a felony. Maybe in his mind, how this year worked out ultimately wasn’t as important to his own tenure here or job security compared to what’s coming down the pipe? I mean look at Chaim - if he gets to the ALCS (2 games from the World Series!) in Year 4 instead of Year 2, he’s still probably here! It's praise. Giolito, Whitlock, Story, Casas, Grissom - when a team has that many random injuries, do you really point a finger at the GM? (As long as they're not trading for chronically-injured players. Or relying on flawed scouting.) |
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Post by tjb21 on Sept 26, 2024 21:09:52 GMT -5
Chris Martin's last appearance before his mid-season injury was 7/3, and then Slaten's was 7/7. Through 7/3, the Red Sox were 3rd in the majors in reliever WAR and 6th in ERA. To patch things together, they added Garcia and Sims, who have put up 8.78 and 6.92 ERAs respectively. So here is my Two-Point Plan for fixing the bullpen: 1) Don't have their two best relievers be injured at the same time. 2) When they make mid-season upgrades through trade, don't have those guys be terrible. Couldn’t be more aligned to your two-step plan. |
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 26, 2024 23:08:20 GMT -5
To be fair, Garcia is ancient and Sims had BB issues for two seasons in a row. They didn't bet on some amazing guys. Conversely, Guerrero has been awesome since been called up. I'd trust the system more for those fringe-y relievers midseason instead of trading.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 26, 2024 23:10:56 GMT -5
To be fair, Garcia is ancient and Sims had BB issues for two seasons in a row. They didn't bet on some amazing guys. Conversely, Guerrero has been awesome since been called up. I'd trust the system more for those fringe-y relievers midseason instead of trading. Guerrero was up for 5 minutes. Zack Kelly looked good early on, too., but by season's end I kind of had enough of him. |
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 26, 2024 23:31:53 GMT -5
To be fair, Garcia is ancient and Sims had BB issues for two seasons in a row. They didn't bet on some amazing guys. Conversely, Guerrero has been awesome since been called up. I'd trust the system more for those fringe-y relievers midseason instead of trading. Guerrero was up for 5 minutes. Zack Kelly looked good early on, too., but by season's end I kind of had enough of him. My point isn't to build the bullpen around the system guys, but rather use them as emergency callups more than trading for average dudes. Not because I want to hoard prospects, but because I feel like that integration is easier. |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 27, 2024 9:51:39 GMT -5
Yet that's only 10th in MLB, behind such teams as the Diamondbacks, Guardians, Dodgers, Brewers, and - leading the majors - the Tigers. Why can those teams handle it but the Red Sox can't? I don't know what other teams do but one solution would be greater emphasis on bulk relief. Have 1-2 guys with no starts and roughly 100 innings each. Think of a game where Criswell and Winck throw 8-9 innings combined. That will not be the prettiest game in baseball history, but if it improves your odds of winning the other 4 games in the rotation and keeps everyone else healthy then it's something to consider. They kind of did this in 2018 and I don't know why they got away from it. Bloom also talked about the multi-inning relief role - how some guys might be best suited to 3-inning stints rather than a starter or 1-inning relief role. That might be a good role for Whitlock, for instance, or maybe Slaten. But Cora has mostly gone with the traditional starter/short reliever dichotomy recently. I would also like to see them get more creative in this department. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 27, 2024 10:08:28 GMT -5
I don't know what other teams do but one solution would be greater emphasis on bulk relief. Have 1-2 guys with no starts and roughly 100 innings each. Think of a game where Criswell and Winck throw 8-9 innings combined. That will not be the prettiest game in baseball history, but if it improves your odds of winning the other 4 games in the rotation and keeps everyone else healthy then it's something to consider. They kind of did this in 2018 and I don't know why they got away from it. Bloom also talked about the multi-inning relief role - how some guys might be best suited to 3-inning stints rather than a starter or 1-inning relief role. That might be a good role for Whitlock, for instance, or maybe Slaten. But Cora has mostly gone with the traditional starter/short reliever dichotomy recently. I would also like to see them get more creative in this department. Cora is just not going to let a 7th starter type pitch the 6th, 7th and 8th innings of a close game while a good reliever is sitting there in the pen. If the bulk pitcher was so good that Cora could resist the temptation then you'd quickly move him to the rotation. |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 27, 2024 11:50:58 GMT -5
Bloom also talked about the multi-inning relief role - how some guys might be best suited to 3-inning stints rather than a starter or 1-inning relief role. That might be a good role for Whitlock, for instance, or maybe Slaten. But Cora has mostly gone with the traditional starter/short reliever dichotomy recently. I would also like to see them get more creative in this department. Cora is just not going to let a 7th starter type pitch the 6th, 7th and 8th innings of a close game while a good reliever is sitting there in the pen. If the bulk pitcher was so good that Cora could resist the temptation then you'd quickly move him to the rotation. But the idea is that such a pitcher is not "a 7th starter type." It's like Houck pre-2024, when he was basically an ace for 3-4 innings and then reliably fell apart. Maybe Whitlock fits this template as well. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 27, 2024 12:34:55 GMT -5
Cora is just not going to let a 7th starter type pitch the 6th, 7th and 8th innings of a close game while a good reliever is sitting there in the pen. If the bulk pitcher was so good that Cora could resist the temptation then you'd quickly move him to the rotation. But the idea is that such a pitcher is not "a 7th starter type." It's like Houck pre-2024, when he was basically an ace for 3-4 innings and then reliably fell apart. Maybe Whitlock fits this template as well. But isn't this very "just make the entire plane out of the black box"? "Have a pitcher who can go 3-4 innings and is good enough that you want to have him to do that rather than use your short relievers, and also have 5 guys in the rotation who are much better" feels like it basically turns into "have 13 excellent pitchers." |
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