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Post by incandenza on Nov 15, 2024 14:57:45 GMT -5
You know, Henry is 75 and Werner is 74. The odds are decent that they will never again see a free agent of Soto's age and caliber. The Red Sox have the young talent lined up for an arc of competitiveness over the next 5-8 years. We remember owners like Peter Seidler and Mike Ilitch... I dunno, just musing out loud about dreams and mortality here...
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 15, 2024 15:01:14 GMT -5
I would like to see park factor data by player, as in expected adjustments to a stat line if a player's home park were Fenway instead of wherever else. I feel like that could be a good selling point for the Sox for some FAs, without doing any research on it Soto I think I recall has a relatively low pulled fly ball rate.
add: and in general Fenway is the best park for lefty hitters
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 15, 2024 15:34:58 GMT -5
Look at all those grey dots off the monster
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 15, 2024 15:44:23 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 15, 2024 15:47:25 GMT -5
Soto's career numbers at Fenway:
BA: .216
OBP: .356
SLG: .486
wOBA: .364
It's only 45 plate appearances, so not sure if there's anything to take from it.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 15, 2024 15:57:52 GMT -5
Look at all those grey dots off the monster This is what I mean, I'm sure the Red Sox have done the calculation of what his line would be and I'm pretty sure it would be even more ridiculous than it already is. Also re; contract my impression of the ownership's stance is basically that for free agents they are interested in they are pretty much willing to go to what the models say they should, Yamamoto went way outside his box, so did Bogaerts and the Red Sox didn't chase. The models for Soto are looking like a lot more than $520, if that's what the Yankees are offering I think there's a good chance the Red Sox beat it. |
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asm18
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Juan Soto
Nov 15, 2024 15:58:58 GMT -5
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Post by asm18 on Nov 15, 2024 15:58:58 GMT -5
The Yankees can’t be that f*cking stupid right |
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 15, 2024 15:59:14 GMT -5
In all seriousness I did assume it was a RHB thing, the OPS stat is wild though. I know! I'm having fantasies of a team burning thru their LHP in the pen and then having to face Soto/Devers/Casas in the the 9th. Like good luck with that. Let's be fair though:
Devers vs. RHP: 137 wRC+
Devers vs. LHP: 98 wRC+
Difference: -39 wRC+
Soto vs. RHP: 169 wRC+
Soto vs. LHP: 135 wRC+
Difference: -34 wRC+
Casas vs. RHP: 129 wRC+
Casas vs. LHP: 114 wRC+ Difference: -15 wRC+
Soto and Devers have decently large R/L splits and Casas' split isn't negligible either. That means teams are still getting value by bringing in LHP. The only way to prevent teams from getting free value from bringing in LHPs is to not have a lineup with mostly players who hit RHP better. It doesn't matter if Soto is great at hitting LHP in a vacuum.
Edit: I think I might have misunderstood you - sounds like you're talking about burning through LHP earlier. Ignore me!
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Juan Soto
Nov 15, 2024 15:59:20 GMT -5
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Post by blizzards39 on Nov 15, 2024 15:59:20 GMT -5
I wouldn't even care if they didn't sign a single pitcher. I'd still love it. The crazy thing is they could still sign an elite pitcher or two and be in a position to reset in a year or two if they were deadset on resetting. Duran CF Soto LF Vlad 1B Devers 3B Story SS Yoshida DH Anyhony RF Wong C Campbell/ Grissim 2B Rafala super utility Crocett / kirby/ other Houck Bello Crawford Gio Casas / abrau / one of teel, mayer, monty/ one of arias, bleis should get you vlad and kirby. Add 1 top reliever. |
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Smittyw
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Juan Soto
Nov 15, 2024 16:03:48 GMT -5
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Post by Smittyw on Nov 15, 2024 16:03:48 GMT -5
Insert "Those are rookie numbers" gif. |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 15, 2024 16:08:20 GMT -5
The Yankees can’t be that f*cking stupid right The original article is paywalled so I don't know what the context is but the wording here is a little ambiguous. Like it might just mean someone had this conversation with Cashman off the record:
"Would you give Soto more than 12 years?" "yep" "Would you give him a higher AAV than Judge?" "yep"
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 15, 2024 16:10:18 GMT -5
I mean, it's coming from Boras who is taking care to frame it in what he thinks is the maximally advantageous light.
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Post by itinerantherb on Nov 15, 2024 16:17:41 GMT -5
I know! I'm having fantasies of a team burning thru their LHP in the pen and then having to face Soto/Devers/Casas in the the 9th. Like good luck with that. Let's be fair though:
Devers vs. RHP: 137 wRC+
Devers vs. LHP: 98 wRC+
Difference: -39 wRC+
Soto vs. RHP: 169 wRC+
Soto vs. LHP: 135 wRC+
Difference: -34 wRC+
Casas vs. RHP: 129 wRC+
Casas vs. LHP: 114 wRC+ Difference: -15 wRC+
Soto and Devers have decently large R/L splits and Casas' split isn't negligible either. That means teams are still getting value by bringing in LHP. The only way to prevent teams from getting free value from bringing in LHPs is to not have a lineup with mostly players who hit RHP better. It doesn't matter if Soto is great at hitting LHP in a vacuum.
Edit: I think I might have misunderstood you - sounds like you're talking about burning through LHP earlier. Ignore me!
The main thing I take from this is that Soto hit LHP about as well as Devers hit RHP, which is . . . really something. |
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Nov 15, 2024 16:33:08 GMT -5
If I see anymore takes on MTR or Twitter about how the Sox shouldn’t sign Soto because he’s redundant as LHH, my head might actually explode.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 15, 2024 17:40:46 GMT -5
I know! I'm having fantasies of a team burning thru their LHP in the pen and then having to face Soto/Devers/Casas in the the 9th. Like good luck with that. Let's be fair though:
Devers vs. RHP: 137 wRC+
Devers vs. LHP: 98 wRC+
Difference: -39 wRC+
Soto vs. RHP: 169 wRC+
Soto vs. LHP: 135 wRC+
Difference: -34 wRC+
Casas vs. RHP: 129 wRC+
Casas vs. LHP: 114 wRC+ Difference: -15 wRC+
Soto and Devers have decently large R/L splits and Casas' split isn't negligible either. That means teams are still getting value by bringing in LHP. The only way to prevent teams from getting free value from bringing in LHPs is to not have a lineup with mostly players who hit RHP better. It doesn't matter if Soto is great at hitting LHP in a vacuum.
Edit: I think I might have misunderstood you - sounds like you're talking about burning through LHP earlier. Ignore me!
That’s very interesting, but is it best to use career stats when Soto had a greater platoon split earlier in his career and almost none last year? |
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 15, 2024 17:51:47 GMT -5
Let's be fair though:
Devers vs. RHP: 137 wRC+
Devers vs. LHP: 98 wRC+
Difference: -39 wRC+
Soto vs. RHP: 169 wRC+
Soto vs. LHP: 135 wRC+
Difference: -34 wRC+
Casas vs. RHP: 129 wRC+
Casas vs. LHP: 114 wRC+ Difference: -15 wRC+
Soto and Devers have decently large R/L splits and Casas' split isn't negligible either. That means teams are still getting value by bringing in LHP. The only way to prevent teams from getting free value from bringing in LHPs is to not have a lineup with mostly players who hit RHP better. It doesn't matter if Soto is great at hitting LHP in a vacuum.
Edit: I think I might have misunderstood you - sounds like you're talking about burning through LHP earlier. Ignore me!
That’s very interesting, but is it best to use career stats when Soto had a greater platoon split earlier in his career and almost none last year? I think so, yes - last year seems like an outlier when you compare to his other years, even 2023. If he figured something out, though... Hooo boy |
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Post by greenmonster on Nov 15, 2024 18:15:41 GMT -5
Look at all those grey dots off the monster Sure hope this was part of yesterday's "get to know ya" meeting |
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Nov 15, 2024 19:25:07 GMT -5
It just truly hit me that there’s a (wildly unlikely) world in which Juan Soto and Vlad Jr are both Red Sox this year and now I’m having a hard time focusing at work And it seems like their chances of having at least one seem to be… pretty decent? 25%? |
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Nov 15, 2024 19:31:40 GMT -5
This reminds me of A-Rod saga in 2003 when SOSH was the place for Sox fans.
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Juan Soto
Nov 15, 2024 20:08:52 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 15, 2024 20:08:52 GMT -5
This reminds me of A-Rod saga in 2003 when SOSH was the place for Sox fans. The thing that often gets forgotten is that if the Sox had acquired A-Rod in the Manny deal and Magglio Ordonez in an accompanying Nomar deal, the Sox would also have lost a prospect named Jon Lester in that deal, which would have really impacted that 2013 World Championship. Fortunately (in this case) Henry wasnt willing to take on A-Rod's full contract and the deal fell apart. Woukd he be willing to offer the 600 plus it would take to land Soto? It might even get up to 700 million. |
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Post by finaliz3d on Nov 15, 2024 20:17:07 GMT -5
I know! I'm having fantasies of a team burning thru their LHP in the pen and then having to face Soto/Devers/Casas in the the 9th. Like good luck with that. Let's be fair though:
Devers vs. RHP: 137 wRC+
Devers vs. LHP: 98 wRC+
Difference: -39 wRC+
Soto vs. RHP: 169 wRC+
Soto vs. LHP: 135 wRC+
Difference: -34 wRC+
Casas vs. RHP: 129 wRC+
Casas vs. LHP: 114 wRC+ Difference: -15 wRC+
Soto and Devers have decently large R/L splits and Casas' split isn't negligible either. That means teams are still getting value by bringing in LHP. The only way to prevent teams from getting free value from bringing in LHPs is to not have a lineup with mostly players who hit RHP better. It doesn't matter if Soto is great at hitting LHP in a vacuum.
Edit: I think I might have misunderstood you - sounds like you're talking about burning through LHP earlier. Ignore me!
I will say, the fact Soto is basically as good against LHP as Devers is against RHP is insane. I think regardless of if you get Soto the Red Sox have to get a middle of the order right handed bat, probably playing DH. A lineup with Soto would ideally be something like: 1: Duran L 2: Soto L 3: DH R (take your pick from f/a or trade, ideal trade would be Brent Rooker but doesn't look like the A's want to trade him) 4: Devers L 5: Casas L 6: Story R 7: Anthony L (or Abreu if you don't trade him, but I'm assuming you do) 8: Campbell R (or Grissom, but I'm guessing Campbell wins the job out of camp) 9: Kelly R (or Wong, but I want Carson Kelly) Yoshida is a weird fit as a lefty bench bat, but it is what it is. Rafaela is your extra infielder because of this weird fit. Wong is the backup although it's probably a 60/40 split for the defensive reps, Refsnyder is Refsnyder) |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 15, 2024 22:05:30 GMT -5
Soto's career numbers at Fenway:BA: .216 OBP: .356 SLG: .486 wOBA: .364 It's only 45 plate appearances, so not sure if there's anything to take from it. My take-away is that Sox pitchers far preferred to walk him than pitch to him... That .270 ISO is probably why. |
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Post by bluechip on Nov 16, 2024 3:32:45 GMT -5
If I see anymore takes on MTR or Twitter about how the Sox shouldn’t sign Soto because he’s redundant as LHH, my head might actually explode. Right? It’s like telling the 1920s Yankees to trade Lou Gehrig because they needed a righty to balance out the lefty hitting Babe Ruth. |
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Nov 16, 2024 9:04:31 GMT -5
If I see anymore takes on MTR or Twitter about how the Sox shouldn’t sign Soto because he’s redundant as LHH, my head might actually explode. Right? It’s like telling the 1920s Yankees to trade Lou Gehrig because they needed a righty to balance out the lefty hitting Babe Ruth. Like anything in this world, if a mantra is repeated enough the sheeple will believe it, or in the very least over emphasize it. My take is I see our line-up entering the season possibly LH dominant but that could be corrected during the season or next. Say Yoshida plays well this year, if he's healthy I fully expect him to, down to 2.5 years and subsidize a deal where you kick in the equivalent of one year over the remainder of the contract and he's moveable and I think it's at a price point where the Sox would be willing to do that but only if it makes sense. I'd want a RH hitting DH back and/or relief pitching. I thought Soto coming here was to long a shot to even engage in conversation about it and while I don't have us as the favorite I'd guess our odds are second best and ahead of the Yankees right now. Say around 33% with taxes etc having an influence. There is a strong Dominican presense in Boston only behind NY and several Domincans have flourished in Boston, which plays a part in Soto claiming the Sox were his favorite team several years back, for whatever that is worth. For search engines try, "News Now Boston Red Sox Rumors". |
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Post by 0ap0 on Nov 16, 2024 9:36:26 GMT -5
I always enjoy overlaid spray-charts that show sac flies leaving the park.
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