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Post by finaliz3d on Nov 16, 2024 17:45:14 GMT -5
I think it’s safe to say that Casas is the one going to the Blue Jays if they swing a trade for Vladdy. Also, I love Duran, but I’m not giving him an extension with his type of player profile. i think you could get Duran for 5 and between 70-80 million (likely more towards 80). He is a late bloomer. I can't imagine he wouldn't take the money. Plus, his profile doesn't scream greedy ballplayer to me. That seems like a great deal for a guy who put up 8.7 bWAR last year. He only needs to average 3 / 4 WAR to get surplus there. He and Houck should be first items on the agenda this offseason. I'm pretty sure by player profile they aren't referring to the type of person he is, it refers to the type of player he is. A good chunk of Duran's game relies on his athleticism, and we have him under arbitration for four more years. I'd just rather let him go to arb, extensions are for when you're trying to sign guys past their arb years. I'd also mention with Casas, there's no incentive for him to extend right now. I don't believe in the Vladdy nonsense, but either way Casas seems like he wants to get his money, and he isn't going to do that after a season where he was injured for the most of it. Houck you could, but again he'll be 32 at the end of his arb years, maybe something like 4y/60-70m type contract that kicks in after this season (i.e. get it done after the arbitration is decided), buying out two arb years and adding two more years. I'm not really that concerned with getting it done, I'd rather get to other stuff first. If there's anyone I would be extending right now, it's Roman Anthony. Basically, just give him the Chourio contract. Anyways to get back to the Soto conversation, I think when you have a chance to get a guy who would immediately become the best player on that team, you should go after that guy. You're not really adding to the lefty problem with Soto because again, he hits lefties as good as Devers hits righties. And, honestly, the bat you're getting out of the lineup would be Rafaela, who had reverse splits and hit better against righties anyways. All you have to do is just add a good right-handed bat to the lineup and the problem is fixed regardless of if you add Juan Soto or not. Find a right-handed DH, put Yoshida on the bench even if it's an awful fit, and you're fine. |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 16, 2024 18:08:33 GMT -5
- Is 8 out of 13 position players really excessively out of balance? They'd still have Story, Grissom, Campbell, Wong, Rafaela, Refsnyder; and it would not be terribly hard to trade Abreu and replace him with a righty bat.
- Devers' AAV is $29 million. I'm pretty sure Soto isn't getting a $60 million AAV so call it a $70-80 million range. That's what the Yankees are paying Judge/Cole; it's what the Dodgers are paying Ohtani/Glasnow; just slightly more than the Phillies are paying Wheeler/Turner or what the Rangers are paying DeGrom/Seager. That's just what it looks like to have a top-tier payroll (which I thought was what everyone wanted for the Red Sox!). But unlike all those other pairs Devers and Soto would still be in their 20s.
a. my man, that is no murderers row. We can't rely on that, in any sense of the word, if the past is prologue. b. the Key here is that some of that money is going to pitching as well. Ours would be for 2 left handed bats. I am not seeing similarity. I been beating the door down for singing expensive FA, and this is a once in a generation opportunity, for sure. I just am very wary of putting it on him, given the overall talent structure in the organization. I would rather trade prospects for stud pitching, if that is necessary. Equilibrium. It may not be a murderer's row but, like, Soto is not the weakness in that lineup. They can trade Abreu, sign O'Neill, whatever; but just not signing Soto doesn't make them better against lefties.
I'm confused about your other point. You say it's bad to spend that much money if some of it doesn't go to pitching, but you also want to trade prospects for pitching? So why not trade for pitching and then take the money they save and put it toward offense? |
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Post by greatscottcooper on Nov 16, 2024 18:18:04 GMT -5
Why do people say “we need more right handed batters”?
Wouldn’t it make since to say “we need to hit LHP better?
Soto makes the Sox better vs. LHP.
I’ve been 100% on the buy pitching don’t spend a dime on position players train (a catcher might be nice). But ones gotta put that to the side for Soto. Soto is different, if you have a chance to sign him go for it.
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Post by Smittyw on Nov 16, 2024 18:24:23 GMT -5
At the end of the day, handedness just isn't a valid reason to pass on a talent of Soto's caliber, any way you slice it.
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Post by puzzler on Nov 16, 2024 18:44:37 GMT -5
The Soto LH argument is way too binary here. It needs to be broken down to get to the root of the issue. Being left handed is no reason not to sign Soto, but it also still creates an issue that I think many posters are whistling past the graveyard on. Soto, Devers, Casas is going to face a LH pitcher in the 7th or 8th inning every single time. They all can hit LH pitching - but they are also much better hitters against RH pitching. So stacking them means you don't get their best when it matters most. Even if you break up the threesome with Story or Campbell or some other RH hitter on the team, they are still going to face a LH every time. Much of the time, that may not be an issue, but when it gets to the playoffs or in tight ball games down the stretch, it sure would be nice to have a strong RH hitter or two that can break the lineup.
My guess is one of Campbell or Grissom is going to solidify their place on the major league roster this season. But beyond them, I don't see any RH hitters that can provide the protection needed for Soto, Devers and Casas. So it would be nice to add another hitter who can slot between Soto/Devers and Casas. I don't really see that happening if they sign Soto as all of the RH additions that would make a difference (Alonso/Bregman/O'Neill) will be costly and/or blocked position-ally. If Campbell AND Grissom could solidify themselves as major league hitters, that would be really helpful.
Duran
Campbell
Soto
Devers
Grissom
Casas
Story
Anthony
Wong/FA Catcher
I'm not worrying about the above lineup as much if both Campbell and Grissom are both good major league hitters. In fact, I think that lineup buys Duran more at bats against RH pitchers which would be a pretty dang good thing and it allows you to trade Abreu and others for pitching. But if one or both of Campbell/Grissom are not good hitters, then you get into a scenario where we can be taken advantage of against teams with strong left handed pitching. That's a small issue for many games, but is a major weakness for some games and if you're spending on Soto, the expectation has to be World Series.
Bottom line; LH/RH doesn't factor in to your decision to sign or not sign Soto, however, it isn't solved by signing Soto either.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 16, 2024 18:53:42 GMT -5
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Juan Soto
Nov 16, 2024 19:32:20 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by gregblossersbelly on Nov 16, 2024 19:32:20 GMT -5
I think it’s safe to say that Casas is the one going to the Blue Jays if they swing a trade for Vladdy. Also, I love Duran, but I’m not giving him an extension with his type of player profile. My point is they shouldn’t trade Casas to Vlad. How bout Casas and Yoshida for Vlad?😉 |
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Post by melvinhoggs on Nov 16, 2024 20:16:54 GMT -5
The Soto LH argument is way too binary here. It needs to be broken down to get to the root of the issue. Being left handed is no reason not to sign Soto, but it also still creates an issue that I think many posters are whistling past the graveyard on. Soto, Devers, Casas is going to face a LH pitcher in the 7th or 8th inning every single time. They all can hit LH pitching - but they are also much better hitters against RH pitching. So stacking them means you don't get their best when it matters most. Even if you break up the threesome with Story or Campbell or some other RH hitter on the team, they are still going to face a LH every time. Much of the time, that may not be an issue, but when it gets to the playoffs or in tight ball games down the stretch, it sure would be nice to have a strong RH hitter or two that can break the lineup. My guess is one of Campbell or Grissom is going to solidify their place on the major league roster this season. But beyond them, I don't see any RH hitters that can provide the protection needed for Soto, Devers and Casas. So it would be nice to add another hitter who can slot between Soto/Devers and Casas. I don't really see that happening if they sign Soto as all of the RH additions that would make a difference (Alonso/Bregman/O'Neill) will be costly and/or blocked position-ally. If Campbell AND Grissom could solidify themselves as major league hitters, that would be really helpful. Duran Campbell Soto Devers Grissom Casas Story Anthony Wong/FA Catcher I'm not worrying about the above lineup as much if both Campbell and Grissom are both good major league hitters. In fact, I think that lineup buys Duran more at bats against RH pitchers which would be a pretty dang good thing and it allows you to trade Abreu and others for pitching. But if one or both of Campbell/Grissom are not good hitters, then you get into a scenario where we can be taken advantage of against teams with strong left handed pitching. That's a small issue for many games, but is a major weakness for some games and if you're spending on Soto, the expectation has to be World Series. Bottom line; LH/RH doesn't factor in to your decision to sign or not sign Soto, however, it isn't solved by signing Soto either. I oddly think you're actually over-complicating the "issue".
You want the team to score more runs. Soto is literally one of the best in the game at helping you do that. With Soto in the lineup, you run into fewer situations where you need to squeeze out a run in the late innings. It will happen, of course, because it's baseball – but he will help you face that situation less often.
For the times that it does happen, you still have lefties that can hit lefties – even if it's not at the monstrous clip that they hit righties. If it's a really tough lefty reliever, you want to play the odds and it's extra innings (where you're hoping not to worry about defensive alignment going forward), that's what pinch hitting a guy like Refsnyder is for.
And that's of course assuming that Grissom, Campbell or whoever else they get can't help in that regard.
It really is just one of those "good problems". Go get Soto.
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Post by finaliz3d on Nov 16, 2024 20:27:35 GMT -5
The Soto LH argument is way too binary here. It needs to be broken down to get to the root of the issue. Being left handed is no reason not to sign Soto, but it also still creates an issue that I think many posters are whistling past the graveyard on. Soto, Devers, Casas is going to face a LH pitcher in the 7th or 8th inning every single time. They all can hit LH pitching - but they are also much better hitters against RH pitching. So stacking them means you don't get their best when it matters most. Even if you break up the threesome with Story or Campbell or some other RH hitter on the team, they are still going to face a LH every time. Much of the time, that may not be an issue, but when it gets to the playoffs or in tight ball games down the stretch, it sure would be nice to have a strong RH hitter or two that can break the lineup. My guess is one of Campbell or Grissom is going to solidify their place on the major league roster this season. But beyond them, I don't see any RH hitters that can provide the protection needed for Soto, Devers and Casas. So it would be nice to add another hitter who can slot between Soto/Devers and Casas. I don't really see that happening if they sign Soto as all of the RH additions that would make a difference (Alonso/Bregman/O'Neill) will be costly and/or blocked position-ally. If Campbell AND Grissom could solidify themselves as major league hitters, that would be really helpful. Duran Campbell Soto Devers Grissom Casas Story Anthony Wong/FA Catcher I'm not worrying about the above lineup as much if both Campbell and Grissom are both good major league hitters. In fact, I think that lineup buys Duran more at bats against RH pitchers which would be a pretty dang good thing and it allows you to trade Abreu and others for pitching. But if one or both of Campbell/Grissom are not good hitters, then you get into a scenario where we can be taken advantage of against teams with strong left handed pitching. That's a small issue for many games, but is a major weakness for some games and if you're spending on Soto, the expectation has to be World Series. Bottom line; LH/RH doesn't factor in to your decision to sign or not sign Soto, however, it isn't solved by signing Soto either. I think you need a good RH hitter, I would assume that Campbell/Grissom is one spot not two (the other in AAA). Get one proven RH hitter to DH and hit second and we will be fine. That mitigates the problem of overreliance on Campbell/Grissom to be good right away. |
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,027
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 16, 2024 20:44:33 GMT -5
I'm amazed that no one at MLB or the Globe has mentioned the difference in ball parks. Here's the wOBA minus xwOBA for lefty hitters, barrels and solid contact, hit to the opposite field (last 3 seasons).
-.193 (25th), NYY
+.018 (13th), Tor,
+.083 (11th), NYM
(This is not a typo:)
+.501 (1st), Bos
That's .501 for home batters in 104 PA, and .499 by road batters in 68 PA. The latter is tied for sixth in PA.
And in fact, even he's better than you think. Here are home and road stats. Expected numbers in ().
2018-22, Was
.404 (.414) Home .408 (.411) Road
But all hitters:
.321 (.319) Home
.311 (.313) Road
On average, a player's home number was his expected road + .008. So Soto should be .419 at home, not .408. That would a park effect, with maybe some excess shift ease (but I doubt it).
(2022 with Padres, way too much noise)
2023, Padres:
.364 (.387) Home .425 (.428) Road
The home formula is expected road + .006, so actual should be .434. The deficit here is .070, which is huge. He had a .395 wOBA; in a neutral park, it's .430.
2024, Yankees:
.410 (.456) Home
.432 (.469) Road
He earned .469 + .004, so that's a .63 surcharge.
With the other three apparent finalists, he's just another HOF first ballot guy. With the Sox, might well be in the best-ever-bat conversation.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 16, 2024 23:13:00 GMT -5
“Exclusive” is not the word i would use here lol
But par for the course for the boras mouthpiece
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 17, 2024 1:04:20 GMT -5
Yankees on Monday
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 17, 2024 6:40:14 GMT -5
i thought Duran had more service time, so I can see the point in not extending him.
I will be happy if Soto is on the team, acknowlegded this once in a generation opportunity. But I see other team weaknesses that take priority im my calculus of what this team needs now and in the future. There aren't unlimited resources, as all are aware.
Back to Soto, he had negative defensive stats last year, playing RF in The Toilet. That makes me nervous going forward. He is also a big guy, what does that mean going forward. And we have a big left handed bat, that plays a much more important position. I think back to Papi and Ramirez. Big bats on both sides of the plate.
From my vantage point, we need to immediately address pitching and defense. Base that on the having had to sit through many games last year, while losing my mind.
You take 40-50 million dollars a year and spread that out properly, you will get more value than that player in those areas.
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Post by trotnixon7 on Nov 17, 2024 7:29:01 GMT -5
i thought Duran had more service time, so I can see the point in not extending him. I will be happy if Soto is on the team, acknowlegded this once in a generation opportunity. But I see other team weaknesses that take priority im my calculus of what this team needs now and in the future. There aren't unlimited resources, as all are aware. Back to Soto, he had negative defensive stats last year, playing RF in The Toilet. That makes me nervous going forward. He is also a big guy, what does that mean going forward. And we have a big left handed bat, that plays a much more important position. I think back to Papi and Ramirez. Big bats on both sides of the plate. From my vantage point, we need to immediately address pitching and defense. Base that on the having had to sit through many games last year, while losing my mind. You take 40-50 million dollars a year and spread that out properly, you will get more value than that player in those areas. While I understand wanting to improve the pitching, the offense really wasn't significantly ahead in that area. Teams OPS+ was 106 and that's with duran having a career year and tyler oneal being the team's HR leader. Duran is likely to regress and oneal is prob gone. The team's pitching had an identical ERA+ of 106. Basically I don't view 1 area as noticeably better. Money isn't unlimited but they have enough (assuming they are willing to catch up to the bigger markets like philly) to take on soto/one of the top arms.. Than you can do trades with surpluses using guys like abreu/grissom if needed etc. I just think worrying about defense (how many of us worried about mannys defense when he was providing elite offense) and L/R when it comes to generational talents is a little foolish. You land the elite talent and than figure out moves after which imo are much easier than landing the big time talent. |
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,202 
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Juan Soto
Nov 17, 2024 7:45:42 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by jimoh on Nov 17, 2024 7:45:42 GMT -5
Under the luxury tax system, can you offer a share of ownership in the team? I doubt it.
Improving defense means mainly improving c, ss, 2b, and cf. we have a unique park that lets us put a fielder with poor range in LF and not suffer much. At the other spots, players just have to concentrate 100% of the time, and catch and throw the ball.
Haven’t numerous people talked about Carson Kelly for C?
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Post by trotnixon7 on Nov 17, 2024 7:56:40 GMT -5
Under the luxury tax system, can you offer a share of ownership in the team? I doubt it. Improving defense means mainly improving c, ss, 2b, and cf. we have a unique park that lets us put a fielder with poor range in LF and not suffer much. At the other spots, players just have to concentrate 100% of the time, and catch and throw the ball. Haven’t numerous people talked about Carson Kelly for C? I think people are too worried about the defense. Like you've said, the middle goes a long ways. Story is a plus defender (if he can ever stay healthy), Mayer imo should at least bring competent defense and the OF if it was Soto-Duran-anthony would do well. Plus rafaela If they can keep him around should develop into a plus basically anywhere he goes. |
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Post by costpet on Nov 17, 2024 8:34:33 GMT -5
I very much doubt that the Sox sign Soto. The Mets will offer him an out worldly contract and the MFY's might match it. So, he'll have a chance to stay in NY either way. Both are winning teams, which you can't say about the Sox, yet. All that money can go to some quality pitchers, which we really could use. Our offense is fine, with the addition of Campbell and Anthony. I wonder if they give Rafala some reps at 3B in Spring Training. He could improve the defense over there and let Devers take a break DHing. If they could sign a couple of decent starters and go hard after the bullpen, they will be just fine. If the Sox do sign Soto, laying out all that money, it really affects the rest of the team, unable to sign any good pitching. So, that would be a mistake.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 17, 2024 8:37:51 GMT -5
i thought Duran had more service time, so I can see the point in not extending him. I will be happy if Soto is on the team, acknowlegded this once in a generation opportunity. But I see other team weaknesses that take priority im my calculus of what this team needs now and in the future. There aren't unlimited resources, as all are aware. Back to Soto, he had negative defensive stats last year, playing RF in The Toilet. That makes me nervous going forward. He is also a big guy, what does that mean going forward. And we have a big left handed bat, that plays a much more important position. I think back to Papi and Ramirez. Big bats on both sides of the plate. From my vantage point, we need to immediately address pitching and defense. Base that on the having had to sit through many games last year, while losing my mind. You take 40-50 million dollars a year and spread that out properly, you will get more value than that player in those areas. Jerry, I get your concern, but the Red Sox offense wasnt particularly great last season either. Red Sox teams that are truly good often lead the league in runs scored or are awfully close to it. Last year's team got shut down way too often. I think they were a top 5 offense, but Fenway Park is often a driver in that. I think Soto forces pitchers to throw a lot more pitches and as a result helps his teammates out by tiring out the pitcher more so that others benefit. Yes, defensively he and Devers remind me a bit of Manny and Ortiz where one of them was forced into a defensive position because they couldn't both DH, but they're both so good you live with it and I do suspect Soto would be ok as the Sox LF, better than Yoshida anyways. I share your concern about being able to spend $ on pitching. I'd love one of Burnes, Snell, or Fried, although I suspect that trading and extending Crochet is probably a more probable possibility. They are going to spend on the offense at some point for an offensive anchor on the middle of the order. My gut feel is that the Sox are going to sign an impact middle of the order bat to stack with Devers. While I still believe Casas will become that type of bat he has yet to prove it over a full season. So the Sox will spend big bucks on a free agent bat, or at least I truly believe they will. And Soto is the best that's out there for years to come.... but that said, that's not the bat I truly anticipate the Sox getting. And I dont expect the bat this season, although they are trying with Soto. I suspect that in the offseason of 25-26, they will land the righty bat theyve been seeking, Vlad Guerrero Jr. I will say this. I think trading for Vlad Jr has been discounted but I wouldnt be as shocked by it. Come July of the Jays are out of it, I wouldnt be surprised if Mayer got moved in a deal to rent and extend Guerreo, although I'd hope the Sox wouldnt go the trade route for him. I dont see how the money would work for Vlad and Soto in the same lineup so I think Vlad is more of an ultimate plan B should the Mets, as I think they will, sign Soto. The overarching point is that sooner or later the Sox will allocate a lot of money for a middle of the order thumper. While I'm sure their preference is for a righty that gets thrown out the window when it comes to Soto. And Vlad Jr will come cheaper than Soto and could ultimately move to 1n to replace Casas if he walks as a free agent eventually. I do think that Fried I'd the likeliest free agent theyd sign, but that that might be it for signing pitchers. Who are too injury prone to be that expensive. They want Breslow developing young pitchers, so they can eschew big free agent money for pitchers and use that on a big bat, although the way they're currently set up they really dont need to except for either Soto and/or Vlad Jr. They probably need to make that one big score or less likely 2 on offense and perhaps 1 on pitching, although getting Sasaki on a bargain. Would be amazing, although not something you can count on. They have the ability to trade for a pitcher right now. But everything else for the next couple of years can probably be covered by the farm system. Yes they will spend in the pen. But likely that will be a small upgrade financially that nets the loss of Jansen and Martin but probably an addition of Scott or adding a Devin James or a Hoffman. |
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Post by patford on Nov 17, 2024 9:29:03 GMT -5
The Sox need pitching more than they do bats (I'm assuming at least a couple of their prospect bats will translate to MLB) but the beauty of Soto is him signing with the Sox (or the Mets) would be devastating for the Yankees who are essentially a lousy team which got exposed by the Dodgers.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 17, 2024 9:35:52 GMT -5
It doesn’t matter whether the team needs pitching more than they need offense, it just matters where you can improve the roster the most. Juan Soto improves the roster significantly more than any free agent pitcher does.
Crochet’s lift is actually kind of close, but signing Soto doesn’t preclude you from that trade at all (and actually probably makes it more likely).
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Post by trotnixon7 on Nov 17, 2024 9:48:52 GMT -5
It doesn’t matter whether the team needs pitching more than they need offense, it just matters where you can improve the roster the most. Juan Soto improves the roster significantly more than any free agent pitcher does. Crochet’s lift is actually kind of close, but signing Soto doesn’t preclude you from that trade at all (and actually probably makes it more likely). I think soto does significantly more. I could see crochet being a 4ish WAR player with soto being 7+. Also even bigger than that, it kinda puts boston back on the "map", gives them more pull for other players etc. It would just do so much. |
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 3,054
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Juan Soto
Nov 17, 2024 9:54:45 GMT -5
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Post by asm18 on Nov 17, 2024 9:54:45 GMT -5
I wonder what the Yankees pitch meeting will be like. There’s certainly something to be said for Soto being familiar with the team, the park and the city & having established relationships in New York. And I’m sure they’ll do the whole “get retired in monument park!” Yankee nostalgia/propaganda.
But beyond that… what are they gonna tell Soto about the Yankees that he doesn’t already know
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Juan Soto
Nov 17, 2024 9:55:26 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Smittyw on Nov 17, 2024 9:55:26 GMT -5
Hot take, but I think they can and should improve both.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 17, 2024 10:12:21 GMT -5
i thought Duran had more service time, so I can see the point in not extending him. I will be happy if Soto is on the team, acknowlegded this once in a generation opportunity. But I see other team weaknesses that take priority im my calculus of what this team needs now and in the future. There aren't unlimited resources, as all are aware.
Back to Soto, he had negative defensive stats last year, playing RF in The Toilet. That makes me nervous going forward. He is also a big guy, what does that mean going forward. And we have a big left handed bat, that plays a much more important position. I think back to Papi and Ramirez. Big bats on both sides of the plate. From my vantage point, we need to immediately address pitching and defense. Base that on the having had to sit through many games last year, while losing my mind. You take 40-50 million dollars a year and spread that out properly, you will get more value than that player in those areas. I think when it comes to Soto it's possible that the resources are sort of unlimited?
That is to say, I don't think all spending is zero-sum. If they give Soto $45 million/year, it doesn't mean they have $45 million less to spend on the rest of the roster this season; it just means they'd be willing to run with a higher payroll. I don't know their spending plans for sure, obviously, but it stands to reason that they'd still add a starter and a reliever or two, at a minimum, even if they add Soto, which would mean adding at least $75 million to payroll and taking them well over the LTT. Whereas if they don't sign Soto they could still fairly comfortably stay under the LTT if they wanted to, and that might be their back-up plan.
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Post by badballhitter on Nov 17, 2024 10:17:32 GMT -5
My 2 cents on the matter:
1. This is entertaining. I feel like the last time the Sox were really in on a top free agent outside of the organization was Price in 2016. I was honestly just planning on ignoring the mlb offseason until at least Thanksgiving, but it's hard to ignore Soto. I know there are no awards for winning the offseason, but it would still be nice if the Sox could occasionally do it anyway.
2. To further illustrate that the Sox don't need a RHH but a player that hits LH pitching, Vlad Jr. has revers splits. .875 career OPS against RHP, .815 against LHP. Vlad Jr had a more traditional line in 2024 (.956 vs LHP, .935 vs RHP), but doesn't automatically "even out" the lineup the way you might assume.
3. I'm not really that worried about defense until at least 2030 and generally think this won't be a major issue. If they found room for Manny and Ortiz, then they can find room for Soto and Devers who I think are both athletic enough to find a way.
Edit: One more thing...It's impossible to know what Sasaki is looking for in a mlb team, but as far as the on-field stuff goes I think a Soto signing makes the Sox one of the most attractive options in mlb.
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