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Post by patford on Nov 17, 2024 10:32:02 GMT -5
My 2 cents on the matter: 1. This is entertaining. I feel like the last time the Sox were really in on a top free agent outside of the organization was Price in 2016. I was honestly just planning on ignoring the mlb offseason until at least Thanksgiving, but it's hard to ignore Soto. I know there are no awards for winning the offseason, but it would still be nice if the Sox could occasionally do it anyway. 2. To further illustrate that the Sox don't need a RHH but a player that hits LH pitching, Vlad Jr. has revers splits. .875 career OPS against RHP, .815 against LHP. Vlad Jr had a more traditional line in 2024 (.956 vs LHP, .935 vs RHP), but doesn't automatically "even out" the lineup the way you might assume. 3. I'm not really that worried about defense until at least 2030 and generally think this won't be a major issue. If they found room for Manny and Ortiz, then they can find room for Soto and Devers who I think are both athletic enough to find a way. Edit: One more thing...It's impossible to know what Sasaki is looking for in a mlb team, but as far as the on-field stuff goes I think a Soto signing makes the Sox one of the most attractive options in mlb. Excellent point about signing Soto. It's not just that he's young and great. Signing him would restore the Sox as a desirable destination. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 17, 2024 10:35:04 GMT -5
I wonder what the Yankees pitch meeting will be like. There’s certainly something to be said for Soto being familiar with the team, the park and the city & having established relationships in New York. And I’m sure they’ll do the whole “get retired in monument park!” Yankee nostalgia/propaganda. But beyond that… what are they gonna tell Soto about the Yankees that he doesn’t already know The reasoning behind the IBB to Devers. |
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 3,054
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Juan Soto
Nov 17, 2024 11:56:08 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by asm18 on Nov 17, 2024 11:56:08 GMT -5
The Carlos Baerga scoop shop/rumor mill was suggesting Mets offer was in the $660 mil range ( LINK). ZIPS was projecting 13/$620. Kiley McDaniel had him pegged for 13/$611 Million. |
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Juan Soto
Nov 17, 2024 12:03:11 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 17, 2024 12:03:11 GMT -5
The Carlos Baerga scoop shop/rumor mill was suggesting Mets offer was in the $660 mil range ( LINK). ZIPS was projecting 13/$620. Kiley McDaniel had him pegged for 13/$611 Million. I kind of believe it. I think Boras' ultimate goal is to top the overall 700 figure that Ohtani got last season. I dont think the Sox will go there. Not sure theyd even match 660. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 17, 2024 12:03:25 GMT -5
My memory is that Carlos Baerga sometimes is passing along stuff that is just made up but also has been first to "report" some legit scoopz, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Even if the $660 is a real thing, you don't know how fake it is due to deferrals and options etc
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Juan Soto
Nov 17, 2024 12:04:45 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by kwodes on Nov 17, 2024 12:04:45 GMT -5
The Carlos Baerga scoop shop/rumor mill was suggesting Mets offer was in the $660 mil range ( LINK). ZIPS was projecting 13/$620. Kiley McDaniel had him pegged for 13/$611 Million. If that is real, then I'd assume he's going to the Mets EDIT: I think I'd almost WANT the Yankees to match that. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 17, 2024 12:07:15 GMT -5
FWIW, ChatGPT tells me:
To provide Juan Soto with the same after-tax earnings as a $660 million contract from the New York Mets, the Boston Red Sox would need to offer approximately $618.23 million, considering the respective state and local tax rates.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 17, 2024 12:11:08 GMT -5
My memory is that Carlos Baerga sometimes is passing along stuff that is just made up but also has been first to "report" some legit scoopz, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Even if the $660 is a real thing, you don't know how fake it is due to deferrals and options etc
Yeah, the media just does a terrible job with the deferrals thing to begin with - you'll still find them talking about how Ohtani selflessly deferred almost his whole salary so that the Dodgers could afford to sign more good players - and it's rumors to boot, so whatever numbers get floated out there are totally meaningless.
If Boras and/or Soto want to, they could probably beat Ohtani's "$700 million" easily, and that might well happen. The more meaningful quetion is whether they can beat Ohtani's $46 million AAV.
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asm18
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Posts: 3,054
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Post by asm18 on Nov 17, 2024 12:12:08 GMT -5
I am unable to verify this information, but Jim Bowden went on Sirius radio and talked Soto among other topics as summarized by this Twitter use below. Will see if I can find the audio: Not the reporter I’d prefer floating positive information to be honest 😅 |
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 17, 2024 12:16:50 GMT -5
More fun with numbers!
Last 3 years:
All LH hitters, % of PA with solid contact or better:
15.6 % pulled 15.1 % straight
9.6 % oppo
Soto:
23.4 % pulled
21.8 % straight
21.0 % oppo
(No difference, home or road)
Note that if we took BB out of both of these, Soto would skyrocket. That's a lot more work, though.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 17, 2024 12:19:02 GMT -5
FWIW, ChatGPT tells me: To provide Juan Soto with the same after-tax earnings as a $660 million contract from the New York Mets, the Boston Red Sox would need to offer approximately $618.23 million, considering the respective state and local tax rates. Here's how I conceptualize $660 million: it is an infinite amount of money
Here's how I conceptualize $600 million: it is also an infinite amount of money
I don't know how professional athletes think about this stuff, and it probably varies, but my impression is that they tend to care more about bragging rights than actual size of the after-tax income. Hence nominally beating Shohei's $700 million would be more meaningful than the actual take-home pay.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 17, 2024 12:22:34 GMT -5
It does feel like Ohtani's tax avoidance scheme is going to force this deal to be full of goofy deferrals so it can top $700 million.
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Juan Soto
Nov 17, 2024 12:27:13 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by dirtywaterinla on Nov 17, 2024 12:27:13 GMT -5
It does feel like Ohtani's tax avoidance scheme is going to force this deal to be full of goofy deferrals so it can top $700 million. But hasn’t Soto and Boras made it clear he’s not taking any deferrals? |
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Juan Soto
Nov 17, 2024 12:29:47 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by scottysmalls on Nov 17, 2024 12:29:47 GMT -5
If he’s worth a $600m plus deal the deferrals don’t need to be that crazy to take it over $700m in face value. He could still be making $35 or even $45 per year for the active portion of the contract.
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asm18
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Posts: 3,054
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Post by asm18 on Nov 17, 2024 12:39:57 GMT -5
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Juan Soto
Nov 17, 2024 12:44:17 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by dirtywaterinla on Nov 17, 2024 12:44:17 GMT -5
Saying that the MFY would be a threat in the playoffs with Judge at this point can’t be taken any other way than a complete joke, lol. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 17, 2024 12:46:03 GMT -5
That reads like a pretty dire report for the Yankees. Klapisch is super connected and on the eve of the big meeting he is telling Yankee fans that they're not going to make the bigger offer. Emergency expectation management.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 17, 2024 12:53:50 GMT -5
"Sure, Juan, you could sign with the other New York team for more money, but with the Yankees you'd get to watch Aaron Judge's decline years up close." This is like the literal version of my parody Blue Jays pitch from yesterday. |
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Nov 17, 2024 13:08:17 GMT -5
Do the Yankees not know the Mets were in Game 6 of the NLCS a month ago. The Mets won more playoff games against the Dodgers than the Yankees did!
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Post by chr31ter on Nov 17, 2024 13:10:43 GMT -5
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Juan Soto
Nov 17, 2024 13:28:34 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 17, 2024 13:28:34 GMT -5
What was that supposed to be? I couldn't read it. |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 17, 2024 13:41:07 GMT -5
Do the Yankees not know the Mets were in Game 6 of the NLCS a month ago. The Mets won more playoff games against the Dodgers than the Yankees did! Reading that article closely, I'm almost willing to write off the Yankees' chances. They really are just saying "we won't make the biggest offer, but maybe he just really likes being a Yankee." And there is zero reason to think that Soto, who has been there all of one season, particularly cares about that - as he has more or less indicated in his public statements.
The Red Sox have at least a little bit of a vibes-based angle, what with the favorite team thing, the Dominican players legacy, the ascending young talent, and so on. But I imagine they'd still need to get close to Cohen's offer for that to matter, and it remains to be seen if Cohen will allow that to happen.
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Post by trotnixon7 on Nov 17, 2024 14:02:51 GMT -5
Do the Yankees not know the Mets were in Game 6 of the NLCS a month ago. The Mets won more playoff games against the Dodgers than the Yankees did! Reading that article closely, I'm almost willing to write off the Yankees' chances. They really are just saying "we won't make the biggest offer, but maybe he just really likes being a Yankee." And there is zero reason to think that Soto, who has been there all of one season, particularly cares about that - as he has more or less indicated in his public statements.
The Red Sox have at least a little bit of a vibes-based angle, what with the favorite team thing, the Dominican players legacy, the ascending young talent, and so on. But I imagine they'd still need to get close to Cohen's offer for that to matter, and it remains to be seen if Cohen will allow that to happen.
Based on nothing but gut but my feeling is if money was the same his preference would be 1. Nyy 2. Mets 3. Bos 4. Tor BUT.. I don't think nyy is in position to offer what he wants. So it's basically boston or the Mets and I'd be stunned if Henry outbids Cohen on someone Cohen REALLY wants. |
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Juan Soto
Nov 17, 2024 14:05:21 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 17, 2024 14:05:21 GMT -5
Saying that the MFY would be a threat in the playoffs with Judge at this point can’t be taken any other way than a complete joke, lol. Why is going to the post season virtually every year with a real shot at winning the Series a joke? As far as watching Judge's decline up close, why wouldnt it be possible for him to be a highly productive player as he ages? I mean, David Ortiz remained productive until the end. Most players peak around 27 and Judge is well past that and still posting historic numbers. His decline might be whacking 30 HRs oer year. All that said, the Mets can and will offer the most money, are ascending, made noise in the playoffs and he even has a good buddy in Lindor over there. The owner also showed his face and made it clear how much he wants him. With the Sox it's a faith based, wait until our kids take off soon kind of thing, as the Sox have rarely made the playoffs during most of Soto's career. The owner wasnt at the meeting to personally convey his desire to see Soto in Boston. What the Red Sox do have is they were his favorite team when they had Ortix, Pedro, and Manny, which was quite awhile ago. I do think the Sox have a legit shot, but I think the Mets are most likely to land him. I might place the Sox ahead of the Yankees but that was just my impression I got when he was asked about his future after the Series ended, and he didnt say, I hope things work out here with the Yankees, but we'll see" Instead the response was more like, Everybody has a shot, so maybe I'm reading too much into it, but I wasn't seeing the pinstriped love at that moment. I'd be over the moon if he selected the Sox but I'd be really surprised if he didnt go to the Mets. Cohen was already talking contract while supposedly the Sox werent. My guess is that if the Sox did offer say 660 million, Cohen probably would go to 701 million to get the record Boras wants. Henry isnt going there. And I dont think Steinbrenner does either. I'm probably shortchanging the Jays but I think they're a distant 4th consideration. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 17, 2024 14:19:47 GMT -5
It's unreasonable but I now expect the Red Sox to sign Soto.
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