SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
|
Post by kwodes on Nov 17, 2024 14:25:58 GMT -5
It's unreasonable but I now expect the Red Sox to sign Soto. the positive momentum and reports have been awesome, but it's probably... 1) Mets 2) Yankees/Red Sox 3) Blue Jays |
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Nov 17, 2024 14:38:42 GMT -5
Saying that the MFY would be a threat in the playoffs with Judge at this point can’t be taken any other way than a complete joke, lol. Why is going to the post season virtually every year with a real shot at winning the Series a joke? As far as watching Judge's decline up close, why wouldnt it be possible for him to be a highly productive player as he ages? I mean, David Ortiz remained productive until the end. Most players peak around 27 and Judge is well past that and still posting historic numbers. His decline might be whacking 30 HRs oer year. Here is the list of players who had a better wRC+ than Ortiz over age 35 and weren't juicers:
1. Ted Williams 2. Babe Ruth
So, sure, maybe Judge will be like those guys. Or maybe he'll age like the vast majority of hitters, even the very best ones, and decline significantly around his mid-30s. He's already entering his age 33 season. And I have a hunch that the decline will be abrupt for him, either because of injuries or because the bat speed slows just enough that the strikeout rate gets away from him.
In any case, I don't see why this would be persuasive to Soto, as opposed to, say, the overall quality of the team. "You'll be one of the two best players on the team" vs. "you'll be the leader of a great team."
|
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 17, 2024 14:39:09 GMT -5
I cant think the Sox are delusional enough to meet with Soto and not attempt to spend the over 600 million it’s going to take to land him. If it’s purely about money which it usually is with Boras he’ll probably pick the Mets but the Sox are in play if they’ll spend.
|
|
|
|
Post by sxfan on Nov 17, 2024 14:56:47 GMT -5
I cant think the Sox are delusional enough to meet with Soto and not attempt to spend the over 600 million it’s going to take to land him. If it’s purely about money which it usually is with Boras he’ll probably pick the Mets but the Sox are in play if they’ll spend. No matter who Soto chooses, I want to see the Sox offer leaked. I think they're serious, but it's hard to be sure if it's not leaked. Red Sox ownership hasn't been fully transparent for a long time. |
|
|
|
Post by greenmonster on Nov 17, 2024 15:11:06 GMT -5
possibly over thinking it, but not sure its a good thing that JWH did not participate in the Sox meeting while Cohen did with the Mets.
|
|
|
|
Juan Soto
Nov 17, 2024 15:18:13 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 17, 2024 15:18:13 GMT -5
Why is going to the post season virtually every year with a real shot at winning the Series a joke? As far as watching Judge's decline up close, why wouldnt it be possible for him to be a highly productive player as he ages? I mean, David Ortiz remained productive until the end. Most players peak around 27 and Judge is well past that and still posting historic numbers. His decline might be whacking 30 HRs oer year. Here is the list of players who had a better wRC+ than Ortiz over age 35 and weren't juicers: 1. Ted Williams 2. Babe Ruth So, sure, maybe Judge will be like those guys. Or maybe he'll age like the vast majority of hitters, even the very best ones, and decline significantly around his mid-30s. He's already entering his age 33 season. And I have a hunch that the decline will be abrupt for him, either because of injuries or because the bat speed slows just enough that the strikeout rate gets away from him. In any case, I don't see why this would be persuasive to Soto, as opposed to, say, the overall quality of the team. "You'll be one of the two best players on the team" vs. "you'll be the leader of a great team."
My point is that the guy is having a historic career so it's hardly a given that he'll be crappy just like that. Most guys you're comparing him with dont routinely have "clean" 55 plus HR seasons and routinely OPS in four digits. I do agree he needs to get the hell out of CF though. With his height and athleticism it wouldn't be hard to see 1b in his future at some point. But there are guys who play better on their 20s than they did in their 30s as Dwight Evan's quickly springs to mind. Brian Downing and Tony Phillips aged gracefully as well IIRC. I know it's the exception but not the rule but when I read, "front seat for the decline", it reads like a Yankee fan saying that being teammates with Ortiz is like watching a stock decline or whatever - Ortiz basically said screw age. As far as the future overall quality of the team I doubt Soto reads farm reports. He sees that the Yankees make the playoffs just about every year while the Sox havent really done much of that during his time in the majors. If it's the alpha male factor, then yes Boston is the best fit. Maybe theres something to that, but with the Mets he and Lindor are already friends, not thrown together the way Judge and he were or even how he and Devers would be, do that factor still points to the Mets. At this point I think the Mets make the most sense. Really hope I'm wrong about this because signing Soto would be one helluva an addition to that long LF legacy the Sox have and theyd have the franchise guy that's upper echelon. Devers is kind of close, but not quite, but Soto would totally be the face of the franchise and anchor that lineup for years to come. |
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Nov 17, 2024 15:18:37 GMT -5
possibly over thinking it, but not sure its a good thing that JWH did not participate in the Sox meeting while Cohen did with the Mets. Ehh, Werner was there. (Was Epstein?) I imagine they sent whoever they thought could make the best pitch. It's not like they'd go to all this trouble and then have Henry not bother to show up because it conflicted with his tee time or whatever. |
|
|
|
Post by bishop on Nov 17, 2024 15:18:56 GMT -5
possibly over thinking it, but not sure its a good thing that JWH did not participate in the Sox meeting while Cohen did with the Mets. If he's willing to cut the checks and Theo has power to make the decision to offer it or not I'm all for it. Rare case too where we can use the tax argument, I think it's $40-$50 million less we'd need to pay given NYC's tax. |
|
|
|
Post by bishop on Nov 17, 2024 15:20:54 GMT -5
Still not getting my hopes up for Soto, but hearing we're in on him and all the pitchers makes me hopeful we'll sign a big one of those, that would still be a great Step 1 this offseason.
|
|
|
|
Post by greenmonster on Nov 17, 2024 15:23:04 GMT -5
possibly over thinking it, but not sure its a good thing that JWH did not participate in the Sox meeting while Cohen did with the Mets. Ehh, Werner was there. (Was Epstein?) I imagine they sent whoever they thought could make the best pitch. It's not like they'd go to all this trouble and then have Henry not bother to show up because it conflicted with his tee time or whatever. I generally agree, but this is where I get confused. Is that really Sam Kennedy? |
|
|
|
Juan Soto
Nov 17, 2024 15:25:58 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 17, 2024 15:25:58 GMT -5
possibly over thinking it, but not sure its a good thing that JWH did not participate in the Sox meeting while Cohen did with the Mets. If he's willing to cut the checks and Theo has power to make the decision to offer it or not I'm all for it. Rare case too where we can use the tax argument, I think it's $40-$50 million less we'd need to pay given NYC's tax. I was listening to a Peter Abe interview on MLB network and he was asked about Theo's role. His understanding was that Theo is not acting is a head of baseball OPS type of position. Hes simply in an advisory role giving input if solicited. Breslow is making the personnel calls. Sounds like Theo is getting experience in being a limited owner, for the day he has a larger share in ownership (not necessarily the Red Sox) down the road. |
|
|
|
Post by bishop on Nov 17, 2024 15:35:48 GMT -5
If he's willing to cut the checks and Theo has power to make the decision to offer it or not I'm all for it. Rare case too where we can use the tax argument, I think it's $40-$50 million less we'd need to pay given NYC's tax. I was listening to a Peter Abe interview on MLB network and he was asked about Theo's role. His understanding was that Theo is not acting is a head of baseball OPS type of position. Hes simply in an advisory role giving input if solicited. Breslow is making the personnel calls. Sounds like Theo is getting experience in being a limited owner, for the day he has a larger share in ownership (not necessarily the Red Sox) down the road. The decision to offer Soto $600 million+ is an ownership decision not baseball ops. Baseball ops can make the recommendation (and I'm sure 30 would be on board) but there's a reason we're talking about whether Steve Cohen will outbid Hal Steinbrenner not David Stearns and Brian Cashman. |
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 3,054
|
Post by asm18 on Nov 17, 2024 15:40:00 GMT -5
possibly over thinking it, but not sure its a good thing that JWH did not participate in the Sox meeting while Cohen did with the Mets. Sean McAdam from MassLive was saying on the Fenway Rundown podcast from yesterday was suggesting the first meeting with Soto was more of a “get to know you, get to know us” meeting - and not to read too much into Henry not being there. If it gets down to closing the deal it sounds like Henry will be very involved (I.e. probably the one on the phone with Boras). I mean he’s the one who’ll be footing the bill |
|
|
|
Juan Soto
Nov 17, 2024 15:58:10 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 17, 2024 15:58:10 GMT -5
I was listening to a Peter Abe interview on MLB network and he was asked about Theo's role. His understanding was that Theo is not acting is a head of baseball OPS type of position. Hes simply in an advisory role giving input if solicited. Breslow is making the personnel calls. Sounds like Theo is getting experience in being a limited owner, for the day he has a larger share in ownership (not necessarily the Red Sox) down the road. The decision to offer Soto $600 million+ is an ownership decision not baseball ops. Baseball ops can make the recommendation (and I'm sure 30 would be on board) but there's a reason we're talking about whether Steve Cohen will outbid Hal Steinbrenner not David Stearns and Brian Cashman. I dont believe Theo has the power you say he does. He can recommend it if hes even really involved but authorizing is an ownership level decision, which means John Henry. |
|
|
|
Juan Soto
Nov 17, 2024 16:34:33 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by sxfan on Nov 17, 2024 16:34:33 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Juan Soto
Nov 17, 2024 16:39:29 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by sxfan on Nov 17, 2024 16:39:29 GMT -5
I can't figure out how to make the tweet pop up, but it says that Baerga has been told that the Mets initially offered 660 million to Soto. |
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Nov 17, 2024 16:40:55 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by abrinker on Nov 17, 2024 16:42:49 GMT -5
I can't figure out how to make the tweet pop up, but it says that Baerga has been told that the Mets initially offered 660 million to Soto. Replace x.com with twitter.com |
|
|
|
Post by curll on Nov 17, 2024 16:42:58 GMT -5
Isn't Baerga connected? I think he was one of the firsts for the Devers extension? I can't figure out how to make the tweet pop up, but it says that Baerga has been told that the Mets initially offered 660 million to Soto. twitter, not x  |
|
|
|
Post by keninten on Nov 17, 2024 17:02:15 GMT -5
Here is the list of players who had a better wRC+ than Ortiz over age 35 and weren't juicers: 1. Ted Williams 2. Babe Ruth So, sure, maybe Judge will be like those guys. Or maybe he'll age like the vast majority of hitters, even the very best ones, and decline significantly around his mid-30s. He's already entering his age 33 season. And I have a hunch that the decline will be abrupt for him, either because of injuries or because the bat speed slows just enough that the strikeout rate gets away from him. In any case, I don't see why this would be persuasive to Soto, as opposed to, say, the overall quality of the team. "You'll be one of the two best players on the team" vs. "you'll be the leader of a great team."
My point is that the guy is having a historic career so it's hardly a given that he'll be crappy just like that. Most guys you're comparing him with dont routinely have "clean" 55 plus HR seasons and routinely OPS in four digits. I do agree he needs to get the hell out of CF though. With his height and athleticism it wouldn't be hard to see 1b in his future at some point. But there are guys who play better on their 20s than they did in their 30s as Dwight Evan's quickly springs to mind. Brian Downing and Tony Phillips aged gracefully as well IIRC. I know it's the exception but not the rule but when I read, "front seat for the decline", it reads like a Yankee fan saying that being teammates with Ortiz is like watching a stock decline or whatever - Ortiz basically said screw age. As far as the future overall quality of the team I doubt Soto reads farm reports. He sees that the Yankees make the playoffs just about every year while the Sox havent really done much of that during his time in the majors. If it's the alpha male factor, then yes Boston is the best fit. Maybe theres something to that, but with the Mets he and Lindor are already friends, not thrown together the way Judge and he were or even how he and Devers would be, do that factor still points to the Mets. At this point I think the Mets make the most sense. Really hope I'm wrong about this because signing Soto would be one helluva an addition to that long LF legacy the Sox have and theyd have the franchise guy that's upper echelon. Devers is kind of close, but not quite, but Soto would totally be the face of the franchise and anchor that lineup for years to come. Dwight was always messing with his swing until Hriniak straightened him out. You don`t think Soto and Boras are going to look at the farm reports if they are interested in the long-term outlooks of the teams he`s considering? |
|
|
|
Juan Soto
Nov 17, 2024 17:07:02 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by sxfan on Nov 17, 2024 17:07:02 GMT -5
I can't figure out how to make the tweet pop up, but it says that Baerga has been told that the Mets initially offered 660 million to Soto. twitter, not x I popped in twitter instead of X and item not found popped in. X might have patched that. Not sure. |
|
|
|
Juan Soto
Nov 17, 2024 17:13:22 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 17, 2024 17:13:22 GMT -5
My point is that the guy is having a historic career so it's hardly a given that he'll be crappy just like that. Most guys you're comparing him with dont routinely have "clean" 55 plus HR seasons and routinely OPS in four digits. I do agree he needs to get the hell out of CF though. With his height and athleticism it wouldn't be hard to see 1b in his future at some point. But there are guys who play better on their 20s than they did in their 30s as Dwight Evan's quickly springs to mind. Brian Downing and Tony Phillips aged gracefully as well IIRC. I know it's the exception but not the rule but when I read, "front seat for the decline", it reads like a Yankee fan saying that being teammates with Ortiz is like watching a stock decline or whatever - Ortiz basically said screw age. As far as the future overall quality of the team I doubt Soto reads farm reports. He sees that the Yankees make the playoffs just about every year while the Sox havent really done much of that during his time in the majors. If it's the alpha male factor, then yes Boston is the best fit. Maybe theres something to that, but with the Mets he and Lindor are already friends, not thrown together the way Judge and he were or even how he and Devers would be, do that factor still points to the Mets. At this point I think the Mets make the most sense. Really hope I'm wrong about this because signing Soto would be one helluva an addition to that long LF legacy the Sox have and theyd have the franchise guy that's upper echelon. Devers is kind of close, but not quite, but Soto would totally be the face of the franchise and anchor that lineup for years to come. Dwight was always messing with his swing until Hriniak straightened him out. You don`t think Soto and Boras are going to look at the farm reports if they are interested in the long-term outlooks of the teams he`s considering? Not anywhere near as much as he'd consider the dollar amount of the offer, ir the fact that the Mets reached the World Series while the Red Sox reached .500 it that the Sox have a recent history of retrenching financially and could do so if his teammate get too expensive. Contrast that with Cohen who doesnt retrench unless it's obvious what hes doing isnt working like when he traded away 2 forty year pitchers in Verlander and Scherzer. For all we know he could wonder if another Mookie Betts type retrenchment happens on his watch if the team gets too expensive after winning. Henry traded off his franchise player. Maybe that matters to Soto. Maybe it doesnt. If the Red Sox are willing to go financially where the Mets go, then maybe they can sell him on future dynasties with dynamic young talent. Until then itll be about the financial commitment shown to him. And all the other stuff is probably pretty secondary. |
|
|
|
Juan Soto
Nov 17, 2024 17:39:11 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by kwodes on Nov 17, 2024 17:39:11 GMT -5
It may be wishful thinking, but if all offers are equal, I'd think Boston would be the most attractive situation going forward.
|
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Nov 17, 2024 17:40:43 GMT -5
Here is the list of players who had a better wRC+ than Ortiz over age 35 and weren't juicers: 1. Ted Williams 2. Babe Ruth So, sure, maybe Judge will be like those guys. Or maybe he'll age like the vast majority of hitters, even the very best ones, and decline significantly around his mid-30s. He's already entering his age 33 season. And I have a hunch that the decline will be abrupt for him, either because of injuries or because the bat speed slows just enough that the strikeout rate gets away from him. In any case, I don't see why this would be persuasive to Soto, as opposed to, say, the overall quality of the team. "You'll be one of the two best players on the team" vs. "you'll be the leader of a great team."
My point is that the guy is having a historic career so it's hardly a given that he'll be crappy just like that. Most guys you're comparing him with dont routinely have "clean" 55 plus HR seasons and routinely OPS in four digits. I do agree he needs to get the hell out of CF though. With his height and athleticism it wouldn't be hard to see 1b in his future at some point. But there are guys who play better on their 20s than they did in their 30s as Dwight Evan's quickly springs to mind. Brian Downing and Tony Phillips aged gracefully as well IIRC. I know it's the exception but not the rule but when I read, "front seat for the decline", it reads like a Yankee fan saying that being teammates with Ortiz is like watching a stock decline or whatever - Ortiz basically said screw age. Don't really want to drag this debate out, but I do want to say that I just looked up Brian Downing and he undoubtedly had the best career of any guy who played during my lifetime that I had never heard of. He almost has a Hall of Fame case! And I had zero recognition of his name. (Honorable mention to Brian Giles, who I do remember but would you have guessed he had a 50+ WAR career?)
So obviously none of us knows what Soto is thinking. But I could imagine him applying any of these heuristics:
1. Doesn't really care about which team is likely to be best; just wants the most money. 2. Wants to be a winner but considers it too uncertain and hard to determine which team will be best going forward; so he just signs for the most money. 3. Wants to be a winner; observes that the Red Sox have won 4 World Series during his living memory while the Yankees have won once (and the Mets 0 times). Chooses Red Sox. 4. Wants to be a winner; is engaged enough to look at young talent, farm system rankings, etc.; concludes Red Sox>Mets>Yankees in pretty decisive order.
If he really cares about being on a winner, he'd probably go with #4. Why wouldn't he? Especially since the Red Sox specifically made that a part of their presentation.
Whereas I think "looks at the Yankees record over the past 5 years (but not more than 5 years) and decides they are the most competitive franchise" is less likely to be the heuristic he applies than any of the above.
Like you, I think the Mets are the most likely destination. In addition to that, though, I see little reason he'd choose the Yankees even if money weren't an issue; but at least some reason to think it could be the Red Sox if that were the case.
ADD: Your point about retrenchment... that is actually kind of plausible. If that's a concern for him that's something the Red Sox brass would have to explain to him. (A plausible response: "We were saving money to give to you, and now we're all in.")
|
|
|
|
Juan Soto
Nov 17, 2024 18:00:31 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by dirtywaterinla on Nov 17, 2024 18:00:31 GMT -5
possibly over thinking it, but not sure its a good thing that JWH did not participate in the Sox meeting while Cohen did with the Mets. Ehh, Werner was there. (Was Epstein?) I imagine they sent whoever they thought could make the best pitch. It's not like they'd go to all this trouble and then have Henry not bother to show up because it conflicted with his tee time or whatever. Plus I think we all know that whenever Henry opens his mouth, immense stupidity usually follows. Tbh probably best he wasn’t there. |
|
|
