asm18
Veteran
Posts: 3,049
Member is Online
|
Post by asm18 on Nov 17, 2024 18:47:28 GMT -5
I’m willing to believe that Soto has a rosier view of the Yankees after hitting in front of Judge and his 58 regular season homers & making a World Series run. I also highly doubt he is chilling in Newport Beach right now boring over prospect ranking and salary numbers on Spotrac, which don’t exactly show a pretty picture of the Yankees org. But Hal Steinbrenner allegedly acknowledging to someone (per Bob Klapisch) that they will likely not have the highest offer… that’s probably not helping ya!
I am starting to wonder if the Soto trade was just a desperate heave by Brian Cashman (which almost worked! They were a couple plays away from having a 3-2 series lead in the World Series) and they didn’t have an actual well thought out plan to retain him when they made the trade, same as the Padres before them.
|
|
|
|
Post by greenmonster on Nov 17, 2024 18:53:27 GMT -5
Ehh, Werner was there. (Was Epstein?) I imagine they sent whoever they thought could make the best pitch. It's not like they'd go to all this trouble and then have Henry not bother to show up because it conflicted with his tee time or whatever. Plus I think we all know that whenever Henry opens his mouth, immense stupidity usually follows. Tbh probably best he wasn’t there. while I wouldn't expect JWH to share some prophetic words that ultimately seal the deal, I do think it would make a better first impression if the Red Sox top guy felt that Soto was important enough for him to be there to "get to know him" |
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,027
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 17, 2024 19:07:40 GMT -5
Best Stats Yet?
Last year Soto hit 14 balls solid or better to the opposite field, on the road.
7 homers, a triple, 2 doubles, and 4 outs, one a sac fly. That's a .714 OBP and a 2.500 SA.
He had 13 at home.
3 homers, 3 doubles, and 7 outs. .462 OBP and 1.231 SA.
And it's worth noting now that OPS is an handy approximation. OBO is more important, and when runs are hard to come by the ratio approaches 2 to 1.
Raffy Devers last year was on a pace for 13 or 14 of these at home when he hit the re-injury wall on August 3. He ended up with 11.
4 homers, a triple, 4 doubles, and 3 singles. That's -- let me get out my calculator -- yup, 1.000 OBP. And 2.727 SA.
wOBA:
1.506 Devers home (.808 added, wOBA-xwOBA)
1.465 Devers road (.223 added)
1.318 Soto road (.080 added)
.762 Soto home (.616 subtracted)
|
|
|
|
Juan Soto
Nov 17, 2024 19:41:34 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 17, 2024 19:41:34 GMT -5
I am unable to verify this information, but Jim Bowden went on Sirius radio and talked Soto among other topics as summarized by this Twitter use below. Will see if I can find the audio: Not the reporter I’d prefer floating positive information to be honest 😅 If it makes you feel better, there's nothing in here that hasn't already been reported elsewhere/isn't self-evident or otherwise is speculation that isn't terribly groundbreaking. |
|
|
|
Post by dirtdog on Nov 17, 2024 22:24:32 GMT -5
Been wondering what Theo was up to.
|
|
|
|
Post by badballhitter on Nov 17, 2024 23:23:13 GMT -5
It's unreasonable but I now expect the Red Sox to sign Soto. It's hard not to think of the Sox as the current frontrunners because if they're willing to go up to $600M then the price either NY team has to pay is too absurdly ridiculous to even wrap your head around...but at the same time I still think one of them might do it. |
|
|
|
Post by dirtywaterinla on Nov 18, 2024 0:56:46 GMT -5
Been wondering what Theo was up to. It’s completely assumptive on my part, but I think Theo has a bigger hand in what is happening with the team than what they’ve publicly stated. This in large part because if he was to have a large role that was publicly known, this would make everyone see Breslow as a sort of #2 role than being the GM. A big part of me believes why we are seeing so much more about a willingness to spend and go big is because Theo is the only one able to twist John Henry’s arm and ear. |
|
|
|
Juan Soto
Nov 18, 2024 4:56:47 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by bluechip on Nov 18, 2024 4:56:47 GMT -5
It's unreasonable but I now expect the Red Sox to sign Soto. It's hard not to think of the Sox as the current frontrunners because if they're willing to go up to $600M then the price either NY team has to pay is too absurdly ridiculous to even wrap your head around...but at the same time I still think one of them might do it. The general public perception that the Yankees will just pony up $600 million seems to show a lack of understanding of the real affect of the current luxury tax system. Can the Yankees afford 50 million per year for Soto? Can they afford what he will cost with the penalties? That’s the real question. |
|
badfishnbc
Veteran
Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 519
|
Post by badfishnbc on Nov 18, 2024 8:32:13 GMT -5
It's hard not to think of the Sox as the current frontrunners because if they're willing to go up to $600M then the price either NY team has to pay is too absurdly ridiculous to even wrap your head around...but at the same time I still think one of them might do it. The general public perception that the Yankees will just pony up $600 million seems to show a lack of understanding of the real affect of the current luxury tax system. Can the Yankees afford 50 million per year for Soto? Can they afford what he will cost with the penalties? That’s the real question. I can only imagine the financial witchcraft going on to determine how to make it feasible. I do wonder if we see more Ohtani-type contracts at the top end of the market. |
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Nov 18, 2024 8:58:57 GMT -5
The general public perception that the Yankees will just pony up $600 million seems to show a lack of understanding of the real affect of the current luxury tax system. Can the Yankees afford 50 million per year for Soto? Can they afford what he will cost with the penalties? That’s the real question. I can only imagine the financial witchcraft going on to determine how to make it feasible. I do wonder if we see more Ohtani-type contracts at the top end of the market. An Ohtani-type contract doesn't help with the luxury tax; the team still has to pay it based on AAV whether it's deferred or not. The only thing it helps with is making the contract a larger number so the player and agent can feel better about themselves. (And in Ohtani's specific case it's maybe a tax dodge, but that's a unique situation.) |
|
|
|
Juan Soto
Nov 18, 2024 9:48:26 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by sxfan on Nov 18, 2024 9:48:26 GMT -5
All signs point to Soto signing during or towards the end of winter meetings. He's pretty much tying up the free agent market because the Sox and Mets are two of the biggest players in free agency this year. Those 2 teams aren't making any decisions until Soto does considering how much he'll get.
So we are looking at MLB off-season deadlocked for 2 plus weeks. Maybe a few trades, but that's it.
|
|
|
|
Post by rico6 on Nov 18, 2024 10:13:28 GMT -5
All signs point to Soto signing during or towards the end of winter meetings. He's pretty much tying up the free agent market because the Sox and Mets are two of the biggest players in free agency this year. Those 2 teams aren't making any decisions until Soto does considering how much he'll get. So we are looking at MLB off-season deadlocked for 2 plus weeks. Maybe a few trades, but that's it. Happens just about every year now. Log jam until the top FA's are off the board - dragging out the offseason action into January-February. |
|
|
|
Post by boylstonbarhopper on Nov 18, 2024 11:07:07 GMT -5
I can only imagine the financial witchcraft going on to determine how to make it feasible. I do wonder if we see more Ohtani-type contracts at the top end of the market. An Ohtani-type contract doesn't help with the luxury tax; the team still has to pay it based on AAV whether it's deferred or not. The only thing it helps with is making the contract a larger number so the player and agent can feel better about themselves. (And in Ohtani's specific case it's maybe a tax dodge, but that's a unique situation.) Yes, it does help with the luxury tax, because $1 million 10 years from now is worth less than $1 million right now, and that's how the value of the deal is calculated for luxury tax purposes. Ohtani's deferrals chop about $25 million annually off the Dodgers luxury tax bill. |
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Nov 18, 2024 11:10:35 GMT -5
An Ohtani-type contract doesn't help with the luxury tax; the team still has to pay it based on AAV whether it's deferred or not. The only thing it helps with is making the contract a larger number so the player and agent can feel better about themselves. (And in Ohtani's specific case it's maybe a tax dodge, but that's a unique situation.) Yes, it does help with the luxury tax, because $1 million 10 years from now is worth less than $1 million right now, and that's how the value of the deal is calculated for luxury tax purposes. Ohtani's deferrals chop about $25 million annually off the Dodgers luxury tax bill. What I'm saying is that they just negotiated a bigger nominal value to go along with the deferrals. If they hadn't had the deferrals they would have just given him a 10/460 contract, which is what it counts as for luxury tax purposes. |
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Nov 18, 2024 16:22:27 GMT -5
Robert Murray says he is extremely skeptical of the $660 million rumor
|
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Nov 18, 2024 17:29:26 GMT -5
The general public perception that the Yankees will just pony up $600 million seems to show a lack of understanding of the real affect of the current luxury tax system. Can the Yankees afford 50 million per year for Soto? Can they afford what he will cost with the penalties? That’s the real question. I can only imagine the financial witchcraft going on to determine how to make it feasible. I do wonder if we see more Ohtani-type contracts at the top end of the market. I'm going to be very upset if the Yankees end up with Soto because they deferred his contract to 15 years from now. |
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Nov 18, 2024 19:48:43 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by keninten on Nov 18, 2024 19:54:38 GMT -5
I`m still guessing he`s going to the Dodgers.
|
|
|
|
Juan Soto
Nov 18, 2024 19:56:20 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 18, 2024 19:56:20 GMT -5
That Dodgers tax bill in 2040 is going to be ridiculous. If they’re allowed to sign yet another crazy deferred contract then they really need to be investigated. |
|
redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 16,830
Member is Online
|
Juan Soto
Nov 18, 2024 20:02:14 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 18, 2024 20:02:14 GMT -5
Well, if Soto winds up in LF for LA, then Teoscar probably winds up in Boston, so there's that.
I still think Soto winds up with the Mets, but I'm thinking the bidding will hit 700 million.
|
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Nov 18, 2024 20:09:10 GMT -5
Well, if Soto winds up in LF for LA, then Teoscar probably winds up in Boston, so there's that. I still think Soto winds up with the Mets, but I'm thinking the bidding will hit 700 million. The mere mention of the Dodgers just drove his price up $100 million? That could be one reason Boras wanted to meet with them.
By the way... no reports about the "impressive presentation" the Yankees gave Soto today?
|
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 3,049
Member is Online
|
Juan Soto
Nov 18, 2024 20:24:38 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by asm18 on Nov 18, 2024 20:24:38 GMT -5
Yeah that LA meeting feels very posturing - but they have endless gobs of money, they need an OF, and Juan Soto is awesome. So who knows
|
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Nov 18, 2024 20:40:02 GMT -5
Not only are the Dodgers stuck paying the max CBT penalty for the next 100 years, but them signing Soto would have a pretty good chance of causing the max CBT penalty to increase in the next CBA negotitions
|
|
redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 16,830
Member is Online
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 18, 2024 20:55:44 GMT -5
Well, if Soto winds up in LF for LA, then Teoscar probably winds up in Boston, so there's that. I still think Soto winds up with the Mets, but I'm thinking the bidding will hit 700 million. The mere mention of the Dodgers just drove his price up $100 million? That could be one reason Boras wanted to meet with them. By the way... no reports about the "impressive presentation" the Yankees gave Soto today?
My opinion was that the figure Boras is trying to extract is a shade above $700 million so that the overall package would top Ohtani. My guess is that the Sox will offer around 600 million, the Yankees a little more, the Jays surprise with a bid that's in the 650 range and that Cohen blows it away with 700 million. I think the Dodgers might go to 625 million but I don't think they'll try to outbid Cohen this time around. |
|
|
|
Post by dirtywaterinla on Nov 18, 2024 20:57:41 GMT -5
I can only imagine the financial witchcraft going on to determine how to make it feasible. I do wonder if we see more Ohtani-type contracts at the top end of the market. I'm going to be very upset if the Yankees end up with Soto because they deferred his contract to 15 years from now. Again, has anyone heard anything contrary to Soto and Boras stating they wouldn’t take any deferrals? I haven’t seen any reports that this stance has changed. |
|
