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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 18, 2024 21:19:39 GMT -5
I'm guessing he gets right near the ZiPS number ($620), but with deferred money such that the headline number is like $705, effective AAV for the contract ~$45-$48m. Mets or Red Sox.
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asm18
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Posts: 3,054
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Post by asm18 on Nov 18, 2024 21:37:06 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Nov 18, 2024 21:39:12 GMT -5
The mere mention of the Dodgers just drove his price up $100 million? That could be one reason Boras wanted to meet with them. By the way... no reports about the "impressive presentation" the Yankees gave Soto today?
My opinion was that the figure Boras is trying to extract is a shade above $700 million so that the overall package would top Ohtani. My guess is that the Sox will offer around 600 million, the Yankees a little more, the Jays surprise with a bid that's in the 650 range and that Cohen blows it away with 700 million. I think the Dodgers might go to 625 million but I don't think they'll try to outbid Cohen this time around. Soto is definitely getting more than the $460 million Ohtani got in real money.
If he wants to get more than Ohtani's $700 million in accounting gobbledygoo money then he can easily do that too I'm sure.
dirtywaterinla: I never heard any report about Soto not doing deferrals but I'm still seeing reporters speculating that he might. So I dunno.
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Juan Soto
Nov 18, 2024 21:42:13 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by blizzards39 on Nov 18, 2024 21:42:13 GMT -5
Well, if Soto winds up in LF for LA, then Teoscar probably winds up in Boston, so there's that. I still think Soto winds up with the Mets, but I'm thinking the bidding will hit 700 million. Also keeps him out of pinstripes. Sox still have lots of ways to win the offseason without Landing Soto. Mind you Soto and Roki would do it for any team |
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Juan Soto
Nov 18, 2024 21:45:35 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 18, 2024 21:45:35 GMT -5
My opinion was that the figure Boras is trying to extract is a shade above $700 million so that the overall package would top Ohtani. My guess is that the Sox will offer around 600 million, the Yankees a little more, the Jays surprise with a bid that's in the 650 range and that Cohen blows it away with 700 million. I think the Dodgers might go to 625 million but I don't think they'll try to outbid Cohen this time around. That would cost the Mets about $100M per year for a decade and a half. !@#$%^&*()_+ I'm guessing 701 million over 14 years for about shade over 50 million per year. Maybe scotty smalls has the right idea with his deferral figures, but I just don't see the Sox going that far, but who knows? John Henry and Tom Werner would be around 90 by then and probably wont be owning the team by then, so it would be sonebody else's problem, lol. The Red Sox would probably have to do the deferral thing if they want Snell and/or Crochet too. I mean that's 100 million on payroll right there, so Snell would probably be out. |
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Nov 18, 2024 21:49:03 GMT -5
Been wondering what Theo was up to. It’s completely assumptive on my part, but I think Theo has a bigger hand in what is happening with the team than what they’ve publicly stated. This in large part because if he was to have a large role that was publicly known, this would make everyone see Breslow as a sort of #2 role than being the GM. A big part of me believes why we are seeing so much more about a willingness to spend and go big is because Theo is the only one able to twist John Henry’s arm and ear. I think it is more likely that in his Senior Advisor role Theo was brought in help Breslow with the Soto negotiation. This is a pretty large deal and it makes total sense for Breslow to utilize Theo's expertise and experience to help try and bring it home. I seriously doubt Theo has any behind the scenes role in the day to day or roster building. That's Craig's job. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 18, 2024 21:58:51 GMT -5
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Nov 18, 2024 22:56:40 GMT -5
The Soto LH argument is way too binary here. It needs to be broken down to get to the root of the issue. Being left handed is no reason not to sign Soto, but it also still creates an issue that I think many posters are whistling past the graveyard on. Soto, Devers, Casas is going to face a LH pitcher in the 7th or 8th inning every single time. They all can hit LH pitching - but they are also much better hitters against RH pitching. So stacking them means you don't get their best when it matters most. Even if you break up the threesome with Story or Campbell or some other RH hitter on the team, they are still going to face a LH every time. Much of the time, that may not be an issue, but when it gets to the playoffs or in tight ball games down the stretch, it sure would be nice to have a strong RH hitter or two that can break the lineup. My guess is one of Campbell or Grissom is going to solidify their place on the major league roster this season. But beyond them, I don't see any RH hitters that can provide the protection needed for Soto, Devers and Casas. So it would be nice to add another hitter who can slot between Soto/Devers and Casas. I don't really see that happening if they sign Soto as all of the RH additions that would make a difference (Alonso/Bregman/O'Neill) will be costly and/or blocked position-ally. If Campbell AND Grissom could solidify themselves as major league hitters, that would be really helpful. Duran Campbell Soto Devers Grissom Casas Story Anthony Wong/FA Catcher I'm not worrying about the above lineup as much if both Campbell and Grissom are both good major league hitters. In fact, I think that lineup buys Duran more at bats against RH pitchers which would be a pretty dang good thing and it allows you to trade Abreu and others for pitching. But if one or both of Campbell/Grissom are not good hitters, then you get into a scenario where we can be taken advantage of against teams with strong left handed pitching. That's a small issue for many games, but is a major weakness for some games and if you're spending on Soto, the expectation has to be World Series. Bottom line; LH/RH doesn't factor in to your decision to sign or not sign Soto, however, it isn't solved by signing Soto either. I think you need a good RH hitter, I would assume that Campbell/Grissom is one spot not two (the other in AAA). Get one proven RH hitter to DH and hit second and we will be fine. That mitigates the problem of overreliance on Campbell/Grissom to be good right away. I'd say the chances of Grissom and Campbell covering 2 positional spots instead of one is better than them covering only one. If Grissom plays second and the Redsox trade Abreu (and more) for say Crochet I can see an outfield before seasons end of Campbell in LF, Duran in center and Anthony in RF and Rafaela backing up CF, RF and SS. This helps the Sox get more RH too with Story and Wong they'd have 4 RH hitters in the everyday line-up. You mention to get one proven RH DH, not sure who that'd be, here is the list of FA DH's. www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/_/year/2025/position/dh/level/mlb/sort/contract_value, what happens to Yoshida then? In order to hope we can trade Yoshida next year and to a lesser degree Story you have to let them play, hope they are healthy and play well to try and build up any kind of market for them. Even then I'm sure for Yoshida we'd have to subsidize a deal to make it happen, the same applies to Story but he'd likely take even another year to potentially move him based on his contract, recent health and hitting. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 18, 2024 23:01:26 GMT -5
In some twisted way I would kind of enjoy it if the Dodgers got Soto and Sasaki, just full blown death star super team like we haven't seen since the early aughts Yankees.
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Post by blizzards39 on Nov 18, 2024 23:06:18 GMT -5
In some twisted way I would kind of enjoy it if the Dodgers got Soto and Sasaki, just full blown death star super team like we haven't seen since the early aughts Yankees. Why not sox get soto vlad crochet and roki and be the death star |
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Juan Soto
Nov 18, 2024 23:08:14 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by dirtywaterinla on Nov 18, 2024 23:08:14 GMT -5
My opinion was that the figure Boras is trying to extract is a shade above $700 million so that the overall package would top Ohtani. My guess is that the Sox will offer around 600 million, the Yankees a little more, the Jays surprise with a bid that's in the 650 range and that Cohen blows it away with 700 million. I think the Dodgers might go to 625 million but I don't think they'll try to outbid Cohen this time around. Soto is definitely getting more than the $460 million Ohtani got in real money.
If he wants to get more than Ohtani's $700 million in accounting gobbledygoo money then he can easily do that too I'm sure.
dirtywaterinla: I never heard any report about Soto not doing deferrals but I'm still seeing reporters speculating that he might. So I dunno.
I mean if he’s open to deferrals, then there’s no reason Henry & Co shouldn’t offer $650+ million. |
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Post by steveo on Nov 19, 2024 5:43:32 GMT -5
Soto is definitely getting more than the $460 million Ohtani got in real money.
If he wants to get more than Ohtani's $700 million in accounting gobbledygoo money then he can easily do that too I'm sure.
dirtywaterinla: I never heard any report about Soto not doing deferrals but I'm still seeing reporters speculating that he might. So I dunno.
I mean if he’s open to deferrals, then there’s no reason Henry & Co shouldn’t offer $650+ million. don't deferrals account for real cash, pushing payments into the future, but do not impact AAV during the actual contractual years? |
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Juan Soto
Nov 19, 2024 7:26:05 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by scottysmalls on Nov 19, 2024 7:26:05 GMT -5
I mean if he’s open to deferrals, then there’s no reason Henry & Co shouldn’t offer $650+ million. don't deferrals account for real cash, pushing payments into the future, but do not impact AAV during the actual contractual years? They don’t impact the AAV because the NPV is the same. Meaning, had they paid the player less money total but more of it early on, the players financial situation would be expected to be exactly the same (because of interest rates blah blah). For both the owner and the player if all they care about is maximizing pre-tax money they are indifferent between the two structures. The reason you do it is for PR and possibly some tax loopholes (but in Soto’s case he’s unlikely to defer nearly as much as Ohtani and so the tax implications are much smaller and it would be more of a pure PR thing). |
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Post by greatscottcooper on Nov 19, 2024 7:55:21 GMT -5
One reason it was so easy for Ohtani to defer so much money was because of all the insane money he makes in marketing deals throughout the year. He's (Soto) not making $40 million a year in endorsement deals but I'm certain he's going to see a bump in those paychecks no matter where he signs. Which kind of makes Boston the perfect home for him, it's a big enough market for him to increase his marketing value tremendously, but he's also going to be the man and not sharing the spotlight with someone like Aaron Judge.
This is pure conjecture, but I don't think deferring parts of his contract is off the table, I just don't think we're going to see anything insane like we did with Shohei, we might see something closer to $5 million a year deferred.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 19, 2024 8:13:58 GMT -5
I'm not really buying that the Dodgers will be a real factor in the Soto sweepstakes but I guess you can't really rule it out either.
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Post by 0ap0 on Nov 19, 2024 8:55:35 GMT -5
People still being super weird about deferrals. It's not a magic trick. Deferred dollars are worth less to everyone involved; the team, the player, the agent, the league, your mom, everyone. If a team and a player want to negotiate in currency that's worth less than present dollars they can. It doesn't make things cheaper. If they want to negotiate in Canadian dollars they can. It's all the same thing. All the meaningful accounting then gets converted into present USD for the league and the CBT. The ONLY things that change are the headlines and the occasionally the tax implications. You all sound like YANKEES ARE GOING TO OFFER ROKI 30 MILLION YEN AND IT WILL BE A WAY BIGGER NUMBER THAN 300000 DOLLARS AND WE'LL ALL BE SCREWED
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Post by patford on Nov 19, 2024 9:32:26 GMT -5
People still being super weird about deferrals. It's not a magic trick. Deferred dollars are worth less to everyone involved; the team, the player, the agent, the league, your mom, everyone. If a team and a player want to negotiate in currency that's worth less than present dollars they can. It doesn't make things cheaper. If they want to negotiate in Canadian dollars they can. It's all the same thing. All the meaningful accounting then gets converted into present USD for the league and the CBT. The ONLY things that change are the headlines and the occasionally the tax implications. You all sound like YANKEES ARE GOING TO OFFER ROKI 30 MILLION YEN AND IT WILL BE A WAY BIGGER NUMBER THAN 300000 DOLLARS AND WE'LL ALL BE SCREWED Fans aren't looking at the deferrals as a dollar amount. Fans see deferrals as a means of skirting a chunk of the luxury tax. In December of 2023 Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700 million contract with the Dodgers. The contract was structured so that $68 million per season was deferred to be paid between 2034 to 2043. I don't think any one would care if the Dodgers deferred the money to be paid out over a time where Ohtani was possibly playing for another team, retired or playing under a new contract with the Dodgers. MLB already does not allow all the deferred money to not count in terms of the luxury tax. 46 million of it already counts toward the luxury tax. I think fans simply believe the Dodgers should be taxed based on 70 million per year rather than the 46 million per year. |
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Post by 0ap0 on Nov 19, 2024 9:37:28 GMT -5
People still being super weird about deferrals. It's not a magic trick. Deferred dollars are worth less to everyone involved; the team, the player, the agent, the league, your mom, everyone. If a team and a player want to negotiate in currency that's worth less than present dollars they can. It doesn't make things cheaper. If they want to negotiate in Canadian dollars they can. It's all the same thing. All the meaningful accounting then gets converted into present USD for the league and the CBT. The ONLY things that change are the headlines and the occasionally the tax implications. You all sound like YANKEES ARE GOING TO OFFER ROKI 30 MILLION YEN AND IT WILL BE A WAY BIGGER NUMBER THAN 300000 DOLLARS AND WE'LL ALL BE SCREWED Fans aren't looking at the deferrals as a dollar amount. Fans see deferrals as a means of skirting a chunk of the luxury tax. In December of 2023 Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700 million contract with the Dodgers. The contract was structured so that $68 million per season was deferred to be paid between 2034 to 2043. I don't think any one would care if the Dodgers deferred the money to be paid out over a time where Ohtani was possibly playing for another team, retired or playing under a new contract with the Dodgers. MLB already does not allow all the deferred money to not count in terms of the luxury tax. 46 million of it already counts toward the luxury tax. I think fans simply believe the Dodgers should be taxed based on 70 million per year rather than the 46 million per year. (Not disagreeing with you.) If so the fans are wrong. Ohtani did not sign a $700M contract; he signed a contract worth $460M that could be written into a headline as $700M using a non-standard definition of $. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 19, 2024 9:38:21 GMT -5
People still being super weird about deferrals. It's not a magic trick. Deferred dollars are worth less to everyone involved; the team, the player, the agent, the league, your mom, everyone. If a team and a player want to negotiate in currency that's worth less than present dollars they can. It doesn't make things cheaper. If they want to negotiate in Canadian dollars they can. It's all the same thing. All the meaningful accounting then gets converted into present USD for the league and the CBT. The ONLY things that change are the headlines and the occasionally the tax implications. You all sound like YANKEES ARE GOING TO OFFER ROKI 30 MILLION YEN AND IT WILL BE A WAY BIGGER NUMBER THAN 300000 DOLLARS AND WE'LL ALL BE SCREWED Fans aren't looking at the deferrals as a dollar amount. Fans see deferrals as a means of skirting a chunk of the luxury tax. In December of 2023 Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700 million contract with the Dodgers. The contract was structured so that $68 million per season was deferred to be paid between 2034 to 2043. I don't think any one would care if the Dodgers deferred the money to be paid out over a time where Ohtani was possibly playing for another team, retired or playing under a new contract with the Dodgers. MLB already does not allow all the deferred money to not count in terms of the luxury tax. 46 million of it already counts toward the luxury tax. I think fans simply believe the Dodgers should be taxed based on 70 million per year rather than the 46 million per year. The point some of us are making is that fans are wrong about this. The contract is worth $46m per year in NPV and that is what is counting towards the luxury tax. It's not an accounting trick it's just how money works. edit: 0ap0 beat me to it |
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Post by 0ap0 on Nov 19, 2024 9:48:32 GMT -5
I'm now thinking of a headline like "Dodgers offer Sasaki a ($1.5M) signing bonus worth over $26M (in 30 years if he invests it for an annual return of 10%)".
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 19, 2024 9:51:40 GMT -5
The only media report I am seeing about the Yankees meeting is Heyman saying it "went very well" with no other detail followed one sentence later by him downplaying the Yankees chances.
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Post by patford on Nov 19, 2024 9:53:31 GMT -5
Fans aren't looking at the deferrals as a dollar amount. Fans see deferrals as a means of skirting a chunk of the luxury tax. In December of 2023 Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700 million contract with the Dodgers. The contract was structured so that $68 million per season was deferred to be paid between 2034 to 2043. I don't think any one would care if the Dodgers deferred the money to be paid out over a time where Ohtani was possibly playing for another team, retired or playing under a new contract with the Dodgers. MLB already does not allow all the deferred money to not count in terms of the luxury tax. 46 million of it already counts toward the luxury tax. I think fans simply believe the Dodgers should be taxed based on 70 million per year rather than the 46 million per year. The point some of us are making is that fans are wrong about this. The contract is worth $46m per year in NPV and that is what is counting towards the luxury tax. It's not an accounting trick it's just how money works. edit: 0ap0 beat me to it The point I'm making is I believe fans think the whole 70 million should count. It's a ten year 70 million dollar contract. MLB should count it as 70 million per year not 46 million per year. If some fans think it's only being counted as 2 million a year for ten years they are wrong but I doubt there are many people who aren't aware it's 46 million not 2 million. |
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Juan Soto
Nov 19, 2024 9:58:47 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 19, 2024 9:58:47 GMT -5
It's not an accounting trick, it's a public relations shtick as others have pointed out. Casual fans who aren't tracking the fine structure of the contract are taken in by that noise.
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Post by patford on Nov 19, 2024 10:05:58 GMT -5
It's not an accounting trick, it's a public relations shtick as others have pointed out. Casual fans who aren't tracking the fine structure of the contract are taken in by that noise. Correct me if I am wrong. The total amount eventually paid by 2043 is 700 million. Yes or No answer only. |
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Post by 0ap0 on Nov 19, 2024 10:08:57 GMT -5
The point I'm making is I believe fans think the whole 70 million should count. It's a ten year 70 million dollar contract. MLB should count it as 70 million per year not 46 million per year. If some fans think it's only being counted as 2 million a year for ten years they are wrong but I doubt there are many people who aren't aware it's 46 million not 2 million. Those fans are still wrong. If you don't get your money annually it's not a ten year 70 million dollar contract. |
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