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Post by redsoxfan2 on Nov 22, 2024 19:21:48 GMT -5
I think the fact that everyone in baseball feels like this is a Teoscar Hernandez franchise and not a Juan Soto franchise is exactly why Henry needs to do this. I don't think there's any information these insiders are going off of other than the narrative established.
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Post by finaliz3d on Nov 22, 2024 19:23:49 GMT -5
1) On Yoshida, see the sunk cost fallacy.
2) So you think the outfield would be Campbell-Duran-Anthony? It's not impossible, but I just do not believe Vaughn Grissom and Kristian Campbell are both going to be good. It's possible, but I'd bet on only one of them ending up in the everyday lineup, and it's probably going to be Campbell. I think more than likely it ends up Duran-Rafaela-Anthony, or if we're lucky enough to sign Soto, Soto-Duran-Anthony.
3) Also just an added point on Rafaela, the guy hit better against righties than he did against lefties last year. His minor league stats are kind of mixed on whether he's actually a reverse-splits guy or not, but either way I wouldn't expect him to have like an .800 OPS against lefties next season.
Yoshida has hit about 12% better than the average major leaguer so he has value and more so than those on our bench. His fit on the team is less than ideal however and they still owe him $18.6M for the next 3 seasons. I've been saying this for nearly a year the team wants to play Story and Yoshida to build up their value so they can reach a theoretical point they'd be willing to subsidize the respective contracts just enough where they become tradeable. I don't see the last sentence as a debatable topic but one that the Sox are surely exploring as a strong option, the part that can be debated until the cows come home are when and how much would they be willing to eat. I do think both Campbell and Grissom will be productive major leaguers and while the team would like to have more RH batting positional players I don't see the need to force that. One exception to that is giving both these RH hitting prospects a chance. One already had some success at his first try as a major leaguer. In his first 156 PA he was 19% better than an average MLB hitter and developed by Atlanta. I think this seasons slow start and recency bias has you overtly pessimistic about him. Perhaps Campbell mans second and Grissom players LF not so sure on Grissoms' ability to play LF but an easy solution to balancing the line-up at least short term without forcing the issue, their really isn't a need to, would be to let both play. One caveat I did not mention is this is all based on Abreu headlining or co headlining a trade for Crochet. I think an ideal role for Rafaela is as a Super Utility player as he'd make the team that much deeper and less risk adverse to injury. I could see him getting around 400 at bats in that role possibly more depending on Story's health and or if Mayer is traded. So you think it's a good idea to have Grissom and Campbell both in the 2024 starting lineup, neither of whom have played a full season in the majors, make up for O'Neill's production not being here? If you're expecting to be 81-81 again, or are aiming to be a draft lottery team, that's fine. But if we're serious about making the playoffs it's ludicrous to have both of them in the lineup. Anyways, let's get back to Soto this isn't the place for this argument.
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Juan Soto
Nov 22, 2024 20:16:53 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 22, 2024 20:16:53 GMT -5
I'm at a point that this is what I think of the Soto pursuit. It's going to come down to money. Hard to see a scenario where the bidding doesnt exceed 700 million. This is going to be record breaking as far as total dollars go. Boras will see to that. This favors the Mets. You keep saying this but do you mean that he'll get more than $700 million in the Ohtani sense (i.e., accounting gimmickry) or a real $700 million without deferrals?
Here are a few projections on Soto's contract: Ben Clemens: $576 million Fangraphs crowdsource: $585 million MLBTR: $600 million Kiley McDaniel: $611 million So a real $700 million contract would be about 15-20% over these estimates. That looks to be about the upper bound of how much any top-of-the-market contracts exceed projections. E.g., Judge was mostly projected for the low 300s and got 360 (though he apparently had an even better offer on the table). Shohei came in right on target. The $700 million target for biggest contract ever plus the teams involved in the bidding plus Soto's unique profile do seem to add up to there being a decent chance that the contract ends up being 15/705 ($47 million AAV) or somethhing like that. But if the bidding tops out in the low 600s that would be consistent with precedent as well. (Yes, there's the Steve Cohen factor, but the indications are not totally unambiguous there; e.g., Stearns would apparently rather spread the spending around, and it's been more speculated than reported that Cohen would be willing to do whatever it takes to get Soto.)
To answer your question, I'm not sure - what I feel strongly about is that it will be presented in a way that makes it look more "record breaking" that Ohtani. Ohtani, the way it was reported, got 700 million, which I think was broken down as 2 million per year for 10 years and 68 million per year for the following 10 years. As far as how it gets broken up or present value or whatever I couldnt give a flying you know what. As a guy who works 70 hours per week struggling to make ends meet it's off putting to me (I understand others dont feel that way and that's fine) to care enough about if a dude is getting "only" 463 million in present value dollars or whatever, as if that really matters in the real world, as in my real world every time I look, something breaks down in my house that needs fixing and I fall further behind, so I dont get wrapped up in the particulars of stuff like that. It's all monopoly money for those guys at this point. My larger point is that Boras wants to "Say look at me, I got this kid the biggest contract in baseball history", which also helps his brand even if there are some assorted Jordan Montgimerys along the way, not that he has to worry about paying repair bills, etc. either, lol.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 22, 2024 20:59:41 GMT -5
Full vjd
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Post by trotnixon7 on Nov 22, 2024 23:10:01 GMT -5
Fenway Park is the reason why Soto should go to the Red Sox. He would become one of the 5 best hitters to ever play the game, if he came here. But beyond the hitting aspect, it caters to his defense perfectly too. He has a lack of range in the corner outfield- Fenway Park LF has one of the least square footage areas in a corner outfield in the majors. He has a strong accurate arm- perfect for playing balls off the wall. And we know the hitting side. He goes the other way better than any LHB in perhaps the history of baseball. He would lead the best young core age 28 or below- Houck, Casas, Duran, Wong, Teel, Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Abreu (if he isn't traded, Rafaela, Crawford, and ohh yeah the other best LHB in MLB Devers (who can relate to him from the Dominican and probably be his best buddy soon). This a long with the Pedro, Ortiz pitches of getting him here. The only stopping this is, money and Cohen. I loooove soto but top 5 might be slightly strong lol. Williams, ruth, gehrig, cobb, hornsby, mantle etc are tough to beat. Best/most complete Sox hitter since Williams? Probably? Although from 01-06 manny had an OPS+ of 162 with a slash of .316-.416-.610 so that won't be super easy to top.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 23, 2024 0:14:40 GMT -5
I think the fact that everyone in baseball feels like this is a Teoscar Hernandez franchise and not a Juan Soto franchise is exactly why Henry needs to do this. I don't think there's any information these insiders are going off of other than the narrative established. Speaking of narratives, one that cracks me up is that "he's a MFY, so they have the inside track." I was just scrolling thru his BR page for the helluvit and one stat that stuck out to me was this: Games Played: WAS = 565, including one WS ring SDP = 214 MFY = 157, plus one WS appearance in which he was about the only guy who hit and the rest of his team (especially the Ruth to his Gehrig) embarrassed themselves. Just imagining Aaron Judge showing up to make a pitch to him makes me LOL. "C'mon bro! Remember how great the WS was? I whiffed four times a game! Let's do it again!"
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 23, 2024 7:07:29 GMT -5
I think the fact that everyone in baseball feels like this is a Teoscar Hernandez franchise and not a Juan Soto franchise is exactly why Henry needs to do this. I don't think there's any information these insiders are going off of other than the narrative established. Agreed. This would go a long way to getting that prestige back. If nothing else, this might honestly show ownership the downside of being frugal in a major market. Especially with one of the supposed top franchises in the game.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Nov 23, 2024 7:53:59 GMT -5
Thirty-two pages of hype and wishful thinking is making it tough to resist. I’m doing my best not to get my hopes up. Recent off season disappointments impact my generally optimistic view of the Red Sox.
But this is a free agent I reeeeeeally want the Sox to get. I’ve always loathed Mark Texeira since he played the Sox after 2008 and signed with the Yankees and I deeply don’t want to view Juan Soto that way. I’m sure it was just hard ball negotiating by Texeira and he was using the leverage of multiple teams to increase his contract. That’s a smart thing for his agent to do. But I’m not some neutral observer. I’m a passionate fan who wants his team to win the World Series every year and field a team with nine gold glove, silver sluggers, an MVP, and a Cy Young winner. It irritates me that the Dodgers lineup features three MVPs. I want that! One of my favorite stats ever is that Bill Mueller won a batting title in 2003 mostly hitting EIGHTH. More of that. More 108 win seasons. More dancing in the outfield. More idiots. More bearded bands of brothers. Cowboy up John Henry!
I completely understand Theo’s contention that it’s important to resist the temptation to try to build a super team. That’s a smart thing for baseball executives to do. But please, pretty please, with sugar on top, drop bank vault on this perfect fit of a baseball player and make this signing happen. Cowboy up Red Sox!
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Post by greatscottcooper on Nov 23, 2024 8:22:30 GMT -5
I’ve talked way too much trash to Yankee fans already. Oh please let us get Soto, and win a World Series with him. The baseball gods demand it
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 23, 2024 8:56:57 GMT -5
Thirty-two pages of hype and wishful thinking is making it tough to resist. I’m doing my best not to get my hopes up. Recent off season disappointments impact my generally optimistic view of the Red Sox. But this is a free agent I reeeeeeally want the Sox to get. I’ve always loathed Mark Texeira since he played the Sox after 2008 and signed with the Yankees and I deeply don’t want to view Juan Soto that way. I’m sure it was just hard ball negotiating by Texeira and he was using the leverage of multiple teams to increase his contract. That’s a smart thing for his agent to do. But I’m not some neutral observer. I’m a passionate fan who wants his team to win the World Series every year and field a team with nine gold glove, silver sluggers, an MVP, and a Cy Young winner. It irritates me that the Dodgers lineup features three MVPs. I want that! One of my favorite stats ever is that Bill Mueller won a batting title in 2003 mostly hitting EIGHTH. More of that. More 108 win seasons. More dancing in the outfield. More idiots. More bearded bands of brothers. Cowboy up John Henry! I completely understand Theo’s contention that it’s important to resist the temptation to try to build a super team. That’s a smart thing for baseball executives to do. But please, pretty please, with sugar on top, drop bank vault on this perfect fit of a baseball player and make this signing happen. Cowboy up Red Sox! There was also friction between the Duquette Red Sox and Teixeira when the draft was going on IIRC so Teixeira was already not big on the Red Sox even though it was a different management group by then. Yes to everything else you said. The 04, 07, and 13 teams werent uber teams. They won 98, 96, and 97 games respectively. The 2018 squad played like an uber team, not that there was anything wrong with that, lol. I'd still take the 04 or even 07 squad's rosters over the 18 roster but I certainly could be persuaded to change my view on that with the right argument, lol. I'd like to muddle that argument even more with debating how great the 2025 - 2030 squads are. I'm ready for that. My head says Fried or Snell, Crochet or a guy in the Buehler tier, 2 solid relievers, if not 3, and a RH bat for a year, although I do think theyd try to out flex LA for Teoscar. My wish list is Soto, Burnes or Snell or Fried (interesting that Big Papi prefers Fried), a Crochet deal that involves Abreu and preserves the top 5 farm guys and allows them to keep one of Arias or Password, a Sasaki signing, a Crawford deal for a closer like Helsley, although if healthy maybe they sign Romano, and/or a Yates or Scott. Thats a a huge wish list, so I expect to be disappointed and will have to deal if Soto returns to the Yankees, a distinct possibility some here dismiss because they simply hate the Yankees as if going (and losing) the Series in the 1 year with the Yankees would be a deterrent, compared to the Sox not having even made the playoffs in 3 years. If he goes back to the Yankees or more likely grabs Cohen's money bags, I have to remember that the Sox can still have a transformative offseason. Kind of like 04 when there was a bitter disappointment that the A-Rod/Manny deal and corresponding Magglio Ordonez/Nomar deal fell thru and worse, A-Rod wound up in pinstripes. Of course at that time both Jon Lester and Brandon McCarthy were seen as comparable pitching prospects, but while McCarthy had some good moments, he was very brittle and Lester wound up being a big game workhorse. It's very fortunate that both deals didnt go through or it's very probable the Sox dont win in 2013, without Lester. So I'll ride the roller coaster of this offseason, get upset when Soto goes elsewhere, and remind myself that he cant pitch anyways and that's theres more money available for pitching and that Vlad Jr who hates the Yankees, would be a helluva consolation prize the next offseason.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Nov 23, 2024 9:02:14 GMT -5
I'm sorry, but Juan Soto should NOT get a bigger contract than Ohtani. Ohtani is as valuable an offensive commodity as Soto, and even the potential of him pitching reasonably like he has in the past once he recovers from surgery makes him undeniably a more valuable talent. Ohtani justifiably got the biggest contract in MLB history, and it is too soon for inflation to drive someone else's salary above his in nominal terms.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 23, 2024 9:05:16 GMT -5
I'm sorry, but Juan Soto should NOT get a bigger contract than Ohtani. Ohtani is as valuable an offensive commodity as Soto, and even the potential of him pitching reasonably like he has in the past once he recovers from surgery makes him undeniably a more valuable talent. Ohtani justifiably got the biggest contract in MLB history, and it is too soon for inflation to drive someone else's salary above his in nominal terms. He will in totality because of the age difference. Ohtani was 29 I think when he struck his deal. Soto will be doing this in his age 26 season where you're talking about the signing a contract in which you'd be getting 3 more prime seasons of HOF worthy performance.
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kwodes
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Juan Soto
Nov 23, 2024 9:14:55 GMT -5
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Post by kwodes on Nov 23, 2024 9:14:55 GMT -5
I'm sorry, but Juan Soto should NOT get a bigger contract than Ohtani. Ohtani is as valuable an offensive commodity as Soto, and even the potential of him pitching reasonably like he has in the past once he recovers from surgery makes him undeniably a more valuable talent. Ohtani justifiably got the biggest contract in MLB history, and it is too soon for inflation to drive someone else's salary above his in nominal terms. He will in totality because of the age difference. Ohtani was 29 I think when he struck his deal. Soto will be doing this in his age 26 season where you're talking about the signing a contract in which you'd be getting 3 more prime seasons of HOF worthy performance. ***Age 25 season*** This year is his age 26 season
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Juan Soto
Nov 23, 2024 10:07:50 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 23, 2024 10:07:50 GMT -5
He will in totality because of the age difference. Ohtani was 29 I think when he struck his deal. Soto will be doing this in his age 26 season where you're talking about the signing a contract in which you'd be getting 3 more prime seasons of HOF worthy performance. ***Age 25 season*** This year is his age 26 season Yeah, that's what I was awkwardly trying to say.
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Juan Soto
Nov 23, 2024 12:26:41 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by eyebob on Nov 23, 2024 12:26:41 GMT -5
I think the fact that everyone in baseball feels like this is a Teoscar Hernandez franchise and not a Juan Soto franchise is exactly why Henry needs to do this. I don't think there's any information these insiders are going off of other than the narrative established. Speaking of narratives, one that cracks me up is that "he's a MFY, so they have the inside track." I was just scrolling thru his BR page for the helluvit and one stat that stuck out to me was this: Games Played: WAS = 565, including one WS ring SDP = 214 MFY = 157, plus one WS appearance in which he was about the only guy who hit and the rest of his team (especially the Ruth to his Gehrig) embarrassed themselves. Just imagining Aaron Judge showing up to make a pitch to him makes me LOL. "C'mon bro! Remember how great the WS was? I whiffed four times a game! Let's do it again!"
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Juan Soto
Nov 23, 2024 12:29:39 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by eyebob on Nov 23, 2024 12:29:39 GMT -5
Boggs? (Not trying to hijack the thread and make it about the best Sox hitter since Williams kinda thing. Had to throw this out there.)
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Juan Soto
Nov 23, 2024 14:02:43 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 23, 2024 14:02:43 GMT -5
Boggs? (Not trying to hijack the thread and make it about the best Sox hitter since Williams kinda thing. Had to throw this out there.) Yeah, hitter and offensive player are 2 different things. By our hit tool, I'd say since Williams its Boggs and then a drop off to Nomar and then Manny. Boggs was the best our hitter I saw. He hit .350 plus for a 7 year stretch and also drew 100 walks a year. What he didnt do except for 1 season was hit HRs Soto is not the hitter Boggs was but when you mix in power and plate discipline to a good hit tool Soto would certainly be as great an offensive player the Sox have had since Manny. So it depends on how you define it but o like to distinguish the art of putting the bat on a ball and putting it where they ain't and lighting up the scoreboard. But yeah it's a dull debate of semantics. The chase for Soto is a lot more interesting
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Post by orcoaster on Nov 23, 2024 14:14:22 GMT -5
***Age 25 season*** This year is his age 26 season Yeah, that's what I was awkwardly trying to say. How confident are we that Juan Soto is actually as old as he says he is? Sometimes DR birth certificates can be sketchy. I don't know anything about his family or his lifestory so maybe he's solid. However, his free agency takes on a different dimension if Soto is entering his age 28 or 29 season, rather than his 26. I'm certain the Red Sox have looked into this and feel good about it so I'll trust in that.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 23, 2024 14:19:14 GMT -5
Yeah, that's what I was awkwardly trying to say. How confident are we that Juan Soto is actually as old as he says he is? Sometimes DR birth certificates can be sketchy. I don't know anything about his family or his lifestory so maybe he's solid. However, his free agency takes on a different dimension if Soto is entering his age 28 or 29 season, rather than his 26. I'm certain the Red Sox have looked into this and feel good about it so I'll trust in that. Unless theres proof that hes older than that I wont go down that road.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 23, 2024 14:22:58 GMT -5
How many players actually get found to be older than people originally thought? There's been a seemingly small handful in the last 20-30 years. Most of which happen after the first couple years they signed as IFA. Absolutely nothing anyone should be concerned with on Soto IMO.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 23, 2024 14:28:17 GMT -5
Yeah, that's what I was awkwardly trying to say. How confident are we that Juan Soto is actually as old as he says he is? Sometimes DR birth certificates can be sketchy. I don't know anything about his family or his lifestory so maybe he's solid. However, his free agency takes on a different dimension if Soto is entering his age 28 or 29 season, rather than his 26. I'm certain the Red Sox have looked into this and feel good about it so I'll trust in that. How do we know that David Ortiz really isn't David Arias?
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Nov 23, 2024 14:39:46 GMT -5
How confident are we that Juan Soto is actually as old as he says he is? Sometimes DR birth certificates can be sketchy. I don't know anything about his family or his lifestory so maybe he's solid. However, his free agency takes on a different dimension if Soto is entering his age 28 or 29 season, rather than his 26. I'm certain the Red Sox have looked into this and feel good about it so I'll trust in that. How do we know that David Ortiz really isn't David Arias? I don't know how prevalent age cheating is these days, or how stringent the safeguards are, but a high profile prospect recently got caught & where there's temptation (ie $$$) there will be cheaters.
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Post by orcoaster on Nov 23, 2024 14:57:26 GMT -5
I think it's highly likely that Soto is exactly the age he says he is. But I do wonder....
If he signs under the supposition that he is 26, but it turns out he's really 29, is the contract void?
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Nov 23, 2024 15:26:55 GMT -5
I think it's highly likely that Soto is exactly the age he says he is. But I do wonder.... If he signs under the supposition that he is 26, but it turns out he's really 29, is the contract void? Chances are extremely slim. If he was older, there would have been something that would have come up by now. Also, I really don’t like these narratives about how foreign players lie about their age. It very rarely happens nor does it really matter in the grand scheme of the player’s performance.
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Juan Soto
Nov 23, 2024 15:56:46 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by redsoxfan2 on Nov 23, 2024 15:56:46 GMT -5
I think it's highly likely that Soto is exactly the age he says he is. But I do wonder.... If he signs under the supposition that he is 26, but it turns out he's really 29, is the contract void? I thought this was only a concern with Cuban players?
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