SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
|
Post by Guidas on Nov 13, 2024 10:02:16 GMT -5
Similar Batters through 25 Bryce Harper (948.0) Frank Robinson (928.7) * Ken Griffey Jr. (925.1) * Mike Trout (914.7) Andruw Jones (905.4) Eddie Mathews (902.9) * Miguel Cabrera (896.9) Mickey Mantle (888.5) * Orlando Cepeda (887.6) * Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (877.0) * - Signifies Hall of Famer Age 26-38 WAR totals: Harper: 23.8 (26-31) Robinson: 67.8 Griffey: 40.3 (35.6 of which came in the first 5 years) Trout: 31.7 (26-32) Jones: 30.4 (27.7 of which came in the first 5 years; career over at age 35) Mathews: 56.7 (career over at age 36) Cabrera: 48.5 (48.6 of which came in the first 8 years lol) Mantle: 59.8 (career over at age 36) Cepeda: 26.1 (but honestly not a great comp; he wasn't nearly the hitter Soto is) My takeaways from these precedents: 1. The signing team is almost sure to get a ton of value in the first 5 years of the deal. 2. The mid-30s are a cliff even for the greatest players and now I am a little more gun-shy about a 13+ year contract.
Yet another reason to bring back PEDs. Gave guys longer careers and fans more stars. |
|
|
|
Post by itinerantherb on Nov 13, 2024 10:17:10 GMT -5
It's impossible to know how Soto will age into the back half of a 12 year contract, though recent precedent for "generational" sluggers on mega-deals is mixed at best. Cabrera fell off a cliff at 34. Pujols was mediocre by 33 but not unplayable until 37. Votto (with his Soto-esque plate discipline) saw a more gradual decline in his rate states but couldn't stay on the field (though he did have a strong age-37 season in 129 games). Trout is still only 32 and has been good to great when healthy, but has already been plagued by injuries. Manny was still really good at 38, though perhaps due to some extra . . . uh . . . support. Ortiz never got a long-term deal but was awesome in his final, age-40 season. Not cherry picking here; the names are just off the top of my head.
But let's assume that Soto ages reasonably well--e.g., holds his peak and stays mostly healthy until 31 or 32, and then declines gradually until 37. If that happens, a 12/600 contract would, as others pointed out above, look like a fine value in terms of $/WAR.
But the thing I keep coming back to is what tying up $50M/year means for the overall budget and the teams ability/willingness to add other top-tier free agents. Let's assume that the team is willing to go over the LT threshold during windows of true contention, but that they're also committed to dipping back under every three years. Let's also assume that it takes a minimum of $80M just to field a not-terrible MLB team comprised of minimum salaries, arb salaries, and modestly priced veterans. That means that the team has a "discretionary" budget (for lack of a better term) between, say, $160M and $200M. Signing Soto means tying up between 1/3 and 1/4 of that budget on a single player. I realize that the cap will likely continue to rise and that proportion will thus continue to fall, but it's still seems like a massive constraint on the team's future spending flexibility.
So is Soto "worth" 12/600? Sure, maybe in a vacuum. He could, after all, plausibly provide 60+ WAR over the life of that contract. But does he provide that much value to a team like the Sox, who are not going to spend $50M over the luxury tax threshold in perpetuity? If his salary inhibits them from addressing other pressing needs in free agency for the next several years, I'm not so sure.
|
|
|
|
Post by gregblossersbelly on Nov 13, 2024 10:17:24 GMT -5
Does character even matter any longer?
Look at last week. HOF needs to put Bonds and Clemens in yesterday!
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 13, 2024 10:32:44 GMT -5
Age 26-38 WAR totals: Harper: 23.8 (26-31) Robinson: 67.8 Griffey: 40.3 (35.6 of which came in the first 5 years) Trout: 31.7 (26-32) Jones: 30.4 (27.7 of which came in the first 5 years; career over at age 35) Mathews: 56.7 (career over at age 36) Cabrera: 48.5 (48.6 of which came in the first 8 years lol) Mantle: 59.8 (career over at age 36) Cepeda: 26.1 (but honestly not a great comp; he wasn't nearly the hitter Soto is) My takeaways from these precedents: 1. The signing team is almost sure to get a ton of value in the first 5 years of the deal. 2. The mid-30s are a cliff even for the greatest players and now I am a little more gun-shy about a 13+ year contract.
Yet another reason to bring back PEDs. Gave guys longer careers and fans more stars. Yes, like noted PED users Frank Robinson, Eddie Mathews, and well-known fitness and health obsessive Mickey Mantle. |
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Nov 13, 2024 10:33:59 GMT -5
It's impossible to know how Soto will age into the back half of a 12 year contract, though recent precedent for "generational" sluggers on mega-deals is mixed at best. Cabrera fell off a cliff at 34. Pujols was mediocre by 33 but not unplayable until 37. Votto (with his Soto-esque plate discipline) saw a more gradual decline in his rate states but couldn't stay on the field (though he did have a strong age-37 season in 129 games). Trout is still only 32 and has been good to great when healthy, but has already been plagued by injuries. Manny was still really good at 38, though perhaps due to some extra . . . uh . . . support. Ortiz never got a long-term deal but was awesome in final, age-40 season. Not cherry picking here; the names are just off the top of my head. I remember it being reported that one of the reasons the team was happy to sign Devers to such a long deal is that hard hit rate ages well, and Soto is elite in that department. (Or maybe it was bat speed, but whatever, Soto is elite there as well.) And then he has an incredible eye, too, which should provide a high floor for his offensive output whatever else happens. You can never predict injuries, of course, but if he's healthy I don't think there's another player in the game that has a better chance at maintaining elite production right through his 30s.
All else being equal, I think you'd rather have 6 WAR at one position for $45 million than give out $45 million to three 2-WAR players to man three positions, because in the former case you still have two positions where you can get some value from young players or cheap free agents.
Obviously they're not likely to get great value at the tail end of the contract; that's just how it goes with these things. But the Red Sox can manage that. Sandoval, Hanley, and Pedroia combined for over $50 million in salary and -0.2 WAR in 2018...
|
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Nov 13, 2024 12:33:45 GMT -5
Yet another reason to bring back PEDs. Gave guys longer careers and fans more stars. Yes, like noted PED users Frank Robinson, Eddie Mathews, and well-known fitness and health obsessive Mickey Mantle. Outliers 😁 |
|
|
|
Juan Soto
Nov 13, 2024 12:38:33 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by gregblossersbelly on Nov 13, 2024 12:38:33 GMT -5
If Pads sign Soto, does Tatis Jr. become available?
Need cheap everyday players to balance out squad.
Hometown boy Marcelo.
|
|
|
|
Post by Darwin's Curve on Nov 13, 2024 13:15:27 GMT -5
Age 26-38 WAR totals: Harper: 23.8 (26-31) Robinson: 67.8 Griffey: 40.3 (35.6 of which came in the first 5 years) Trout: 31.7 (26-32) Jones: 30.4 (27.7 of which came in the first 5 years; career over at age 35) Mathews: 56.7 (career over at age 36) Cabrera: 48.5 (48.6 of which came in the first 8 years lol) Mantle: 59.8 (career over at age 36) Cepeda: 26.1 (but honestly not a great comp; he wasn't nearly the hitter Soto is) My takeaways from these precedents: 1. The signing team is almost sure to get a ton of value in the first 5 years of the deal. 2. The mid-30s are a cliff even for the greatest players and now I am a little more gun-shy about a 13+ year contract.
Yet another reason to bring back PEDs. Gave guys longer careers and fans more stars. And high school and college athletes more tumors. Plus old players can die sooner and we'll have more retrospectives about how awesome they were. A win all around? |
|
gerry
Veteran
Enter your message here...
Posts: 1,811 
|
Juan Soto
Nov 13, 2024 15:47:52 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by gerry on Nov 13, 2024 15:47:52 GMT -5
Ouch! So ironic that organic, natural foods and healthy lifestyle so often intersect with injecting deadly substances. Weird.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,202
|
Post by jimoh on Nov 13, 2024 16:32:50 GMT -5
Has this been mentioned? Soto in 2021: “Since I was a child, my favorite MLB team was always Boston because of the Dominicans who played with them: Manny Ramírez, David Ortiz and Pedro. The Red Sox have always been my favorite team.” fansided.com/mlb-rumors-red-sox-juan-soto-old-interview-gasoline-dream# (weak source but it quotes tweets) if I were doing a sales pitch Part 1 would be Manny Ramírez, David Ortiz and Pedro, and the 32 minute half-in-Spanish "Three Kings": The story of Pedro Martinez, David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, and the 2004 Red Sox, which tells the story of what 2004 meant to the Dominican community in Boston Part 2 would be the three brainy (at least at hitting) hitters who have played LF in Boston: Ted Williams (who has a tunnel named after him), Yaz, and Manny, each of whom knew the strike zone snd worked the pitchers. |
|
|
|
Post by RedSoxStats on Nov 13, 2024 19:13:04 GMT -5
FWIW, there has been an eye-opening amount of "chatter" about Sox-Soto today.
|
|
kwodes
Veteran
Posts: 630
Member is Online
|
Post by kwodes on Nov 13, 2024 19:20:57 GMT -5
FWIW, there has been an eye-opening amount of "chatter" about Sox-Soto today. stoppppp... Told myself I'd ignore rumors and stay even-keeled. Damnit SoxStats... |
|
|
|
Post by finaliz3d on Nov 13, 2024 19:25:26 GMT -5
I really hope it happens, could you imagine having Duran, Soto, Devers, and Casas all in your top five? Ideally you still get a righty hitter to balance things out a little at the top, but that is an amazing top of the order.
I'm where I was with Yamamoto last year where I do think we're in on him, of course, who knows if it actually happens. Him and Sasaki would be the perfect offseason adds in my opinion.
|
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Nov 13, 2024 19:25:54 GMT -5
FWIW, there has been an eye-opening amount of "chatter" about Sox-Soto today. I would love nothing more than to have been wrong about John Henry. This is the guy you break the bank for and they have the room to do it. They'll still have work to do with getting a front line starter, but this gets me engaged all year. They shouldn't be getting out bid by Toronto. Fiscally, it doesn't make sense for NY or NYM. I really want the Red Sox or the Dodgers to sign him. At least with the Dodgers it'll be comedic. |
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 13, 2024 19:27:21 GMT -5
FWIW, there has been an eye-opening amount of "chatter" about Sox-Soto today. Stats don't do this to me, don't do this to US! Send in Papi, send in Pedro!!! |
|
curll
Rookie
Posts: 153
Member is Online
|
Post by curll on Nov 13, 2024 19:32:04 GMT -5
FWIW, there has been an eye-opening amount of "chatter" about Sox-Soto today. Stats don't do this to me, don't do this to US! Send in Papi, send in Pedro!!! Can we all chip in and order mofongo from every Boston-area restaurant that has it, pack it into a thermos so it remains hot, and charter a private jet to Juan Soto to deliver the mofongos? Let him know what we've got to offer. We'll take constructive criticism. Can we franchise the Mofongo Factory and turn it into an international chain of which he is the spokesperson? Can we install him as King of DR? |
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Nov 13, 2024 19:37:02 GMT -5
FWIW, there has been an eye-opening amount of "chatter" about Sox-Soto today. Stats don't do this to me, don't do this to US! Send in Papi, send in Pedro!!!  |
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Nov 13, 2024 19:39:12 GMT -5
Welp, it's officially Click Refresh 16 Hours A Day season
|
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Nov 13, 2024 19:41:38 GMT -5
Im telling myself there is no way I'm getting my hopes up in the slightest on Soto and yet here I am.
|
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Nov 13, 2024 20:06:09 GMT -5
Jon Heyman did a talking head spot today and he's no longer bringing up any teams other than the Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox.
I like our chances against two 110% tax teams and the last place Jays. Baltimore would be the scariest team imo. Payroll is still under $100 million. But nobody has connected them.
|
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Nov 13, 2024 20:14:19 GMT -5
Jon Heyman did a talking head spot today and he's no longer bringing up any teams other than the Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox. I like our chances against two 110% tax teams and the last place Jays. Baltimore would be the scariest team imo. Payroll is still under $100 million. But nobody has connected them. Does seem kind of wild to think if the Mets or Yankees sign him chances are they're going to have to pay over a billion dollars for his services with the LT penalties since they aren't getting under the LT anytime soon if they add Soto at big bucks to their ledger. Also Toronto is so meh that the Red Sox would have no excuses for not outbidding them if it came down to those two teams somehow. That being said I gotta stop trying to talk myself into this. |
|
|
|
Juan Soto
Nov 13, 2024 20:30:43 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 13, 2024 20:30:43 GMT -5
The Blue Jays concern me only because the Shohei thing from last year makes me feel they may offer a nuclear contract
|
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 3,054
|
Juan Soto
Nov 13, 2024 20:30:55 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by asm18 on Nov 13, 2024 20:30:55 GMT -5
Wasn’t the meeting today?
|
|
|
|
Post by RedSoxStats on Nov 13, 2024 20:33:33 GMT -5
Wasn’t the meeting today? no |
|
|
|
Post by bettsonmookie on Nov 13, 2024 20:34:53 GMT -5
I asked ChatGPT about the tax implications of these 4 clubs and thought the response interesting enough to share:
“For a hypothetical 15-year, $600 million contract for Juan Soto, his after-tax income would vary significantly depending on which team he plays for, primarily due to differing state (or provincial) tax rates, city taxes, and the impact of the “jock tax” (which requires athletes to pay income tax in states or provinces where they play away games).
1. New York Yankees and New York Mets: Both teams fall under New York’s top state income tax rate, which is about 10.9% for high-income earners. New York City also imposes an additional local tax of around 3.9% on residents, making New York one of the highest-taxing areas for athletes. The combined state and city taxes, along with the U.S. federal tax rate of up to 37%, would result in a significant reduction in Soto’s after-tax income if he were to play for either of these New York-based teams. The “jock tax” would still apply for away games in other states, but most of the income would be taxed at New York rates.
2. Boston Red Sox: Massachusetts has a slightly lower state income tax rate of 5% compared to New York, but it remains high overall. With the federal tax rate included, Soto would still pay a substantial amount in taxes if he joined the Red Sox. Boston doesn’t have an additional city tax on income like New York City, making the total tax burden lower than in New York but still significant.
3. Toronto Blue Jays: Playing in Canada presents unique tax considerations. Ontario’s top tax rate for high-income earners reaches 49.53% (combined federal and provincial rates). However, as a U.S. resident, Soto would be taxed in Canada only on earnings from “home games” played in Canada (about 45% of the season). He would still owe U.S. taxes on his global income but could claim credits for taxes paid in Canada, effectively meaning he would pay the higher of the two tax rates for income earned on Canadian soil. This scenario would likely lead to a complex tax situation but ultimately a comparable or slightly lower tax burden than in New York  .
In summary, based on tax rates alone, Soto would retain more of his earnings in Massachusetts or Canada than in New York due to New York’s additional city tax and higher combined rates. However, Canada’s unique tax situation for athletes would add complexity, potentially making Toronto a less favorable choice despite some financial advantages.”
|
|
|
