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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 27, 2023 12:22:05 GMT -5
Sox are now tied with the Jays for 5th in MLB in bRef's scheduled-adjusted run differential metric.
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 26, 2023 22:34:18 GMT -5
What Wong has done for this team is huge. He's gone from "is he good enough to be the short-side of a catching platoon?" to stepping up and being a literal everyday catcher - and how many of those are there anymore? - in half a season. Really hope they can get him some rest in the near future, but he deserves a ton of credit for the work he has done so far. Two biggest plays of the game (by change in Win Probability) are easy: Tuner's double and Albies' homer.
The third biggest? Wong throwing out Wall at second. I can't remember when I was more excited by a CS.
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 26, 2023 14:11:01 GMT -5
I think a Snell trade would be great if the price is reasonable. The Padres system is thin and could probably stand to take on some of the talent Boston has that is set to undergo a Rule 5 crunch whether it’s Valdez, Paulino, or any of the arms in the mid to upper minors. There are actually a decent number of arms available right now and the Padres are lacking leverage so it could be the right recipe to strike a deal. MLBTR says the Padres have rebuffed Snell queries.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 25, 2023 18:41:46 GMT -5
Wow. They were seriously thinking about trading Kiké rather than Duval by the 13th at the latest. And no one got it!
You need a 4th guy capable of playing the middle infield. If you've got just three, and someone is banged up for a few days, you can't hit for the likes of Arroyo.
Right now the main three guys are Chang, Arroyo, and Flores. The fourth guy is 2B Justin Turner, who started a game there for the first time in years on the 14th.
If you trade Duval and keep Kiké, you obviously don't need to do that.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 25, 2023 16:28:19 GMT -5
I'd be surprised if the Sox didnt get two Justin Garza level relievers for Hernandez. Anything more valuable than that cannot be expected. Yeah, they can't be guys that need to be protected from Rule 5.
So, yeah, these are Brennan Bernardino (as of last year) types.
(The point being that they may have something in mind for one or both guys, something creative that the Dodgers haven't tried. One in 20 odds they get a player of any sort, but that's better than zero. And always interesting!)
Of course, if they do get Robertson, they can flip him in a trade for a starter. Duh!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 25, 2023 16:23:15 GMT -5
I'd be surprised if the Sox didnt get two Justin Garza level relievers for Hernandez. Anything more valuable than that cannot be expected. Yeah, they can't be guys that need to be protected from Rule 5.
So, yeah, these are Brennan Bernardino (as of last year) types.
(The point being that they may have something in mind for one or both guys, something creative that the Dodgers haven't tried. One in 20 odds they get a player of any sort, but that's better than zero. And always interesting!)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 25, 2023 16:08:30 GMT -5
It was clear to me that they would trade either Kiké or Duval, and I stand by my conclusion that IF Kiké could clear his head and be other than a black hole offensively going forward, he would be the guy you keep.
They apparently believe he can't. I'm fine with that; it's perfectly credible, and I like Duval and look forward to another hot streak.
And yeah, I suggested that Duval would have trouble getting his swing back while playing just against LHP, but the very good announcing team at ESPN mentioned how advanced pitching machines have become, to the point that rehab stints are no longer a must. If Duval indeed has a defined role now -- more or less strict platoon with Duran -- I would hope that he could work on recovering his sweet swing that way and in extended BP.
The other big advantage doing it this way is that you are unquestionably better off should you have --- I'm sorry, I have to say this! -- a major injury to one of the three outfield starters.
Finally, if Kiké hits better in LA, that doesn't mean he could have done it here.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 25, 2023 14:15:42 GMT -5
Paxton already took less money to stay with the Sox, and the home-team discount for free agents is real to begin with. You keep him for a WS run and then extend him.
Yes, I said World Series.
I'm not sure anyone can match Sale, Paxton, Bello, and BernaPivetta for a post-season rotation. Then you have Jansen, Martin and Schreiber for RH short relief and Houch, Whitlock, Winckowski and Crawford as long guys, plus Bernadino and Rordriguez to face lefties.
We know that good pitching really does beat good hitting in the post-season, and as weird as it seems, with everyone healthy we have tremendous pitching. And we can lose one or two guys from the RHR reliever list and still thrive.
And the offense of course is very good.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 25, 2023 0:43:18 GMT -5
In the history of this site, has any rookie ever thrown 34 innings as of late July and had less fanfare, given these ranks among all the pitcher?
2nd in Win Probability Added 4th in ERA (but with more IP than anyone ahead of him) 2nd in wOBA (or the older equivalent, OPS allowed) and 4th in xwOBA ...
If he's for real going forward ... just how many guys have come out of nowhere or despair to become pieces for 2024 and later?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 24, 2023 23:49:32 GMT -5
Expand the roster to 27 (see another post for September), keeping a cap on 13 pitchers. That's right: 27 outs, 27 players. The extra player makes a surprising difference.
When I stared watching baseball, a team had 10 pitchers, 8 regulars and seven bench players.
There was more platooning, more pinch hitting and pinch running ... more strategy.
. Admittedly, the 25th guy often got little PT, and the DH means you don't need a pinch-hitter (usually just 1 in the old days). That yields 5 bench guys as the equivalent.
Or another angle: excluding P and C, there are five distinct positions in terms of defensive skills and desired offense: 1B, 3B, CF, middle infielder, and corner outfielder. Right now you are covering those 5 roles with 3 guys, so you need 2 guys out of 3 who are covering two different roles. Most often, you have a 1B covering either 3B or corner OF, plus either a CF covering the corners or a skill infielder covering 3B.The result is subpar defense by the backup 1B in his secondary role and subpar offense from the backup CF or middle infielder in theirs.
Add just one bench guy and it flips the whole picture. Now you have two guys who only back up one position (and can platoon) and just one guy who's extra-versatile.
With the current 4-man benches, it sure seems that half the guys who are good enough to back up or platoon at a single MLB position are stuck in AAA. They lose their spot to a guy not as good who can play somewhere else as adequately. Since when is that a good idea for game quality?
How many extra tickets does the average team have to sell, per game, to pay one guy earning the minimum? About 85.
Yes, 85 extra fans to see the better (but less versatile) players coming off the bench, and the extra strategy that goes with it I think that's a win..
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 24, 2023 23:04:26 GMT -5
- on ground-rule double, runner scores from first if there are two outs (would be running on contact)
- agree w Chris on ghost-runner starting in the 11th
- some version of trading draft picks
- some system of strike review (but baby steps please)
- multiple tiers of restricted free agent (QO's) for different $ value and draft rounds.
- more money for third year MLB players
- allow AAAA players to to negotiate another option year to increase their employability (might need some qualifiers or thresholds to keep teams from colluding on this)
I've been saying that for years. Extra clause; only if the ball leaves the playing field in fair territory.
(Can you think of a moment in Sox history that would have been crushing if the rule, without that clause, had been in place?)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 24, 2023 22:22:29 GMT -5
The fact that they have an extra guy on the roster, after you add the 2 pitchers, tells you that they are talking trade. Given how many teams will be shopping, it's hard to imagine they won't get something done.
Let's remember that Adam Duval was not signed because they needed someone to play CF. He was signed to replace Trevor Story in the batting order. They had the bold idea of moving Kiké to SS and signing Duval. Didn't work work out.
In 115 PA since returning Duval has hit just .258 / .261 (expected / actual wOBA) . Of course, Kiké has 94 PA and is .194 / .209.
OTOH, the role for whoever isn't traded will be platoon CF, and over the last 3 years (all that's predictive) Kiké ranks 15th of 47 in in Success Rate Added while Duvall ranks 37th in Statcast's Success Rate Added. (Not quite as big as it sounds, as guys are tightly clustered.)
Teams have been reported as interested in Kiké as a play-everywhere bench guy and clubhouse asset. But teams looking at Duval will put him in LF or CF every day and dream he gets hot like April. That's a lot more trade value,
You're looking at about 17 starts. You need a 4.5 WAR / 150 G difference just to reach half a WAR of impact by trading the wrong guy.
Either they think Kiké cannot be fixed at the plate (highly unlikely) or they think he can be made at least adequate. If it's the latter, Duval is the likely guy leaving tomorrow. They should get a nice return -- presumably including a rotation depth piece.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 24, 2023 14:16:55 GMT -5
- No extra inning ghost runner - I'd be willing to adopt the automated strike zone, if and only if, it takes pitch framing into account somehow; it's an art for a catcher, and I don't want it to go away There's a way to do something like this.
There are pitches that are 100% strikes and 100% balls, but the accuracy of the system isn't infinite, so there will be pitches that were 60% strikes and 40% balls, etc., based on the plus or minus of the calculated position.
Track the catcher's glove, not from the initial position but a bit after the pitch is released.
Factor in the amount of movement of the catcher's glove into the uncertain results.
Part of this is attending to intent. A 50/50 pitch where the catcher was set up for just that spot should obviously be a strike, while the same pitch withe catcher lunging across the entire plate should obviously be a ball.
The skill included here would not be framing, but the ability to quickly recognize and respond to an errant pitch.
And I bet that skill correlates with framing.
Gather a year of data, all the uncertain pitches, and spend the winter constructing an algorithm that produces results that seem right.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 24, 2023 13:57:43 GMT -5
On zombie runner, I don't despise it like others here do, but would prefer if it started in like, the 11th or 12th. Ideally, it kicks in (at the start of an inning) after each team has had 9 PA in extras. That will usually be the 12th or 13th.
Give every hitter on each team a chance to hit with regular baseball rules. Right now if one team has 1 to 4 due up and the other 6 to 9, that's a huge advantage and it pure luck. (It's luck to begin with, but the ghost runner amplifies it hugely.) And you really have to go through both lineups before you make it crazy easy to score.
You also put off the point in time where a cheap single (completely luck) can decide the game.
Now, in practice this is probably just an argument for 12 (although I would go for 13). But the more complicated rule would make things more interesting.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 24, 2023 13:22:26 GMT -5
Could've seen them doing it for the 2-game series if they weren't getting Schreiber and Bello back. Good point. Whoever guessed Brandon Walter go buy a scratchy lottery ticket Per an Ian Browne tweet (via MLBTR), Arroyo jammed his right thumb in Oakland and that's why he hasn't played since the 18th. Cora said he was available last night but he wasn't used. If placed on the IL retroactively he would need to come off on the 29th. And of course he could go on "rebab" immediately.
Also, the off day does give them an extra day to decide; it needs to be resolved nu start of game time tomorrow.
I still like the idea of going to 3 middle infielders other than Kiké ASAP, as that's likely to be the roster construction when Story comes back (2 of Chang, Arroyo, and Reyes).
EDIT: Crossed in the mail with the news!
This ain't over. One of the two pitching spots is for Bello and if the other is for Schreiber, then they still have to put Arroyo on the IL or trade Kiké or Duval.
Meanwhile, Walter had a .281 / .325 xwOBA / wOBA, and Jaques has .284 / .398. They have a -0.21 and -0.22 WPA, in 14.2 and 15.2 IP respectively.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 24, 2023 13:02:25 GMT -5
Per an Ian Browne tweet (via MLBTR), Arroyo jammed his right thumb in Oakland and that's why he hasn't played since the 18th. Cora said he was available last night but he wasn't used. If placed on the IL retroactively he would need to come off on the 29th. And of course he could go on "rebab" immediately.
Also, the off day does give them an extra day to decide; it needs to be resolved nu start of game time tomorrow.
I still like the idea of going to 3 middle infielders other than Kiké ASAP, as that's likely to be the roster construction when Story comes back (2 of Chang, Arroyo, and Reyes).
EDIT: Crossed in the mail with the news!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 23, 2023 16:03:54 GMT -5
In the Statcast era, Adam Duval has a tiny platoon split -- +18 xwOBA, +8 wOBA. (That's numbers vs. LHP minus numbers vs. RHP.)
Kiké Hernandez is +60, +62. In this big chunk of time, he's been +7, +20 compared to Duval.
Kiké is by far the better defender. I'd point out the last two years Duval has better numbers versus LHP than Hernandez. You have to go all the way back to 2021 for Hernandez to be smashing LHP like his career numbers. Declined greatly 2 years in a row. So what makes you think his career numbers matter more than the last two years? I'm getting Bradley vipes that his days of being really good might be over for good. If you trade Hernandez, can't you use Rafaela a great defender as depth also? Single-season performances vs. LHP are full of random noise, so that's why I went as far back as possible.
Re what I bolded, the standard for hitter projections is to start with the last 3 seasons and weight them 5-4-3. So that great season is still 1/4 of his projection. Given that he played hurt all last year, "all the way back" made me laugh.
I do agree that Duval is likely to be a bit better vs. LHP than Kiké, but the defense makes that a wash, and then the clubhouse continuity makes it a better choice -- at a minimum.
Admittedly I'm a notorious optimist, but I put the chances that Kiké recovers his 2021 mojo at 35 or 40%. And that of course would be huge.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 23, 2023 12:21:11 GMT -5
I'm afraid to say I'm just not buying with this team. They're just dangerous enough to stay in the race but not dangerous enough to make the dance unless they get some good injury luck. That Injury luck is gonna have to come from within. If they can make it run it's cuz story, Sale, Houck and Whitlock or some combo come back and sure up the team. I can't see them dealing for anyone who can be a difference maker though. I see a rich hill type and a 6th inning reliever who can help the pen. This of course is true of almost every other team in MLB.
The key here is Chris Sale, who was the best pitcher in MLB once he got it going.
If you can sneak into the post-season with a healthy Sale plus Bello and Paxton, that is a formidable top 3, probably the best in MLB ... and then you hope to have as many as possible of Pivetta (bulk), Whitlock, Houck, and Crawford as options for a 4th starter. In fact, right now Houck followed by Pivetta looks like a fourth ace.
Re the deadline, Story and Sale are your major additions. Nobody can top that.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 23, 2023 11:44:27 GMT -5
I was for doing nothing major. I think they need to add a competent starting pitcher, just for depth, ideally one who has options left and has upside (e.g., by adding velo as so many Sox guys have done).
I was deeply opposed to an idea that has been often floated ... until I used the radical approach, unknown to many pro baseball writers, called ALUPS, Actually Looking Up Player Statistics.
We need a CF to platoon with Duran, who has a .252 xwOBA, .312 wOBA in 41 PA vs. LHP, vs. .337 / .386 (235 PA) vs. RHP (the actual vs. expected being speed, of course). Since he went beast on May 7 Casas is .406 / .415 (178) vs. RHP but .262 / .345 (30) vs. LHP. [1] Verdugo on the season is .354 / .361 (270) vs. RHP but .339 / .293 (126) vs. LHP. So there's absolutely room for both Refsnyder in a corner, and the platoon CF.
There are two obvious candidates.
In the Statcast era, Adam Duval has a tiny platoon split -- +18 xwOBA, +8 wOBA. (That's numbers vs. LHP minus numbers vs. RHP.)
Kiké Hernandez is +60, +62. In this big chunk of time, he's been +7, +20 compared to Duval.
Kiké is by far the better defender.
Kiké is used to coming off the bench, while the team has treated Duval as a guy who needs regular playing time.
Duval, as someone's LF, has much more trade value.
Kiké is a positive force in the dugout while Duval is just another nice guy.
Depth? Rafeala is killing it for the Woosox.
And the folks who have concluded that Kiké is permanent toast must be on bad drugs of some sort. One can reasonably suspect that Kiké's whole mind-set would change and relax if he were no longer asked to try and fail playing regularly in the middle infield. And baseball history is full of guys his age who had a bad 4 moths and a much better final 2.
I think that Kiké projects to be at least as good in this role as Duval, and there's a real chance he could be considerably better.
Pablo Reyes' rehab is now almost up. He needs to be added to the roster on Monday. I would trade Duval tomorrow to make room, grabbing an underrated young pitcher who is in AAA because his team has no need for him in MLB.
Of course, Reyes lasts only until Story returns on August 10 (barring a setback in rehab), and it might well make sense to trade him (if he has any value [2]) at the deadline, especially if Story looks like he'll take less than 20 days to be ready.
[1] Casas since May 7 ranks 9th / 12th in MLB among 171 guys with 150+ PA vs. RHP.
[2] See Reyes' thread for whether he has any trade value, some time later today.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 21, 2023 22:44:00 GMT -5
Law with 4 Sox prospects in his top 50 and another in his top 80.
3. Mayer 45. Anthony 48. Rafaela 50. Teele 61-80 Bonacu (hononrable mentions to his top 50)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 18, 2023 4:41:57 GMT -5
Why does it matter that Pivetta numbers are better in relief. I mean he comes in a clean inning. I am all for whatever it takes but I don’t understand this one. He's been really bad in the first inning inning his entire Sox career. In fact, I pointed that out and said he should be following an opener maybe a month before they did it.
Cora said that he thought Pivetta had a different mind-set in relief.
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 18, 2023 4:38:47 GMT -5
More on Pivetta's night.
The record for strikeouts in a hitless relief performance was just 10. Hal Brown of the Orioles did it in 1955, walking 5, in 8 innings. And in 2020 Tyler Alexander of the Tigers fanned 10 in 3.2 innings, walking 1.
The record for K's in relief appearance of 6 IP or less was 12. Mark Guthrie of the Twins did that in 1995, in six, but he gave up a HR and 2 ER. If you want a scoreless outing, you have to back to 1909 when Tom Hughes of the Senators fanned 11 in six, while scattering 5 hits. If you want a lively-ball outing, it's
Alexander.
The only prior 13-K relief outing that was even scoreless was Randy Johnson's 16 K's in 7 IP, allowing 1 hit and 1 walk, for the DBacks, when he was 37.
Who started that game and went 2 perfect innings, fanning just 1? Curt Schilling!
17 K, 1 H, 1 BB -- Schilling and Johnson. 18 K, 1 H, 3 BB -- the Sox last night.
This was in fact just the third 1-hit shutout with 18 K's or more in MLB history. One was Kerry Wood's 20 K game, likely the greatest pitching performance in MLB history.
There was a also a 19 K game in 2015 where the starter fanned 18 in 8 and closer Cody Allen fanned another.
And by the very fact that I haven't named him yet ... yup, that was Corey Kluber. He hit a batter in the first and lost the no-hitter in the 7th.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 18, 2023 2:07:11 GMT -5
Sox and Yankees seasons divide nicely.
Before they played one another
37-27 Yankees 31-32 Sox
After the first pitch head-to-head
13-18 Yankees 20-12 Sox
That's 2.5 games gained against 3rd parties in addition to the 4 gained head-to-head.
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 17, 2023 21:25:30 GMT -5
Crawford as a starter has an xwOBA / wOBA of .320 / .338. MLB average is .328 / .323. Given that wOBA is inflated by Fenway, and by this year by defense, that puts his overall performance as just over the line between 3 and 4 starter (on the good side. That league average is the border between 3 and 4 really makes these translations easier). But here's the catch. He has never a had a start remotely like that. He has no starts with an xwOBA between .271 and .384! What do those two numbers average out to? .328. MLB average. He has six starts with a combined xwOBA of .236. How good is that? Joe Ryan leads regular MLB starters with .272. He has four starts with a combined xwOBA of .426. How bad is that? Adam Wainwright and Kyle Muller are worst among regular starters at .421. Compared to Kutter Crawford, Jekyll and Hyde are (is?) a paragon of consistency. All of his good starts would have been better than average for Ryan.
The thing is, there are probably lots of pitchers who are somewhat like this -- when they're off their game, they are dramatically worse. I say "somewhat" not just because of the huge split, but because of the 60 / 40 good / bad split. How often do guys like this have an off day? One start in five? That sounds right to me. If Crawford could keep this up, but melt down just once in four starts, he'd be an ace. If he could get it down to 1 in 5, he's be the best pitcher in baseball.
I don't mean to imply that this is possible. But given what we've seen, I think it's fair to say that he ought to be a 3 starter and could be even better.
I've saved the best (worst)? for last. He's only had 1 pair of back-to-back good or bad starts, and that exception has a big asterisk.
4/3/2023 .461 4/9/2023 .261 6/3/2023 .220 6/7/2023 .196 6/13/2023 .385 6/20/2023 .207 6/25/2023 .397 7/1/2023 .270 7/6/2023 .465 7/16/2023 .237 He was asked to pitch on short rest on 6/7 because (IIRC) they wanted to give Whitlolck extra rest, and he gave up 6 hits in 3+ innings for a wOBA of .436. But his expected hits were 2.5. I remember thinking he pitching well and was just having crap luck.
I believe his next start is Saturday vs. the Mets ... can he break the pattern and be great?
Late addition:
Days rest may be a factor. He's made 6 starts in regular rotation.
.207 -- 6 days (1 start) .305 -- 5 days (2 good and 1 bad start) .427 -- 4 days (2 starts)
I think he'll be on 5 days rest not just vs. the Mets but in his start after that, first game in SF.
An off-season working on stamina ... what would that do?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 16, 2023 18:24:55 GMT -5
No, it certainly wasn't. Yankees win probability ...
30.5
84.4
09.5
89.8
00.0
Gotta love it!
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