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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 2, 2023 15:00:56 GMT -5
I was prepared to be completely satisfied by a split of this road trip, given the quality of opposition, and the jet lag. I have major worries over Kutter on 4 days rest ... as I said elsewhere, I hope they did something to address that.
It's way too soon to start opining about the 2024 OF. Yes, they likely add Rafaela and subtract either Verdugo or Duval, but I can't defend the use of a single brain cell when you have three players to take longer looks at.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 2, 2023 14:45:33 GMT -5
Seems like this could be the last game as a Red Sox for either Reyes, Chang, or Arroyo. Wonder which one it will be. Despite his good defense, I am starting to think Chang since if Story is going to be playing shortstop on most days Chang's defensive value to this team at short goes down and he can't hit. Reyes and Arroyo sat least seem to have a pulse at the plate. No, they optioned Urias. That gives them time to fix his swing. I think the plan (if he's fixed) is to add him as on 9/1, and have him and Turner handle 2B. Reyes gets trimmed when Story returns. Arroyo goes back to the bench role where he's best suited. Chang is the backup SS.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 2, 2023 14:35:57 GMT -5
As I said yesterday, I expect them to add a starting pitcher to give them 6 starters including Murphy-Bulk. Sale supplants Murphy as soon as he has a sharp rehab outing, and stretches out start by start. Sale, Bello, Paxton, Pivetta, Crawford, Acquisition. Then when Whitlock comes off the IL, he gets the 6 spot and the new guy may well be optioned.
Houck? As I've been saying all year, his problem is stamina, not times facing the hitter. He has a .504 OPS allowed the first time around the order, but a .454 allowed through the first 3 innings. In the third inning he has been better against the top of the order than he was the first time he faced them. He has an .812 allowed the second time facing, and a .901 the third time, but a .962 starting in the fourth inning.
As a three-inning reliever he'd make Winck look like a AAA guy. And you'd seriously think about just piggybacking him on Pivetta. Six innings of Pivetta all out and three of Houck, in some order -- if Pivetta doesn't turn back into a pumpkin, you could start game 1 of a playoff series with that combo. You’re saying that because Houck has fared better the second time through an order than the first, his problem is stamina, not being a two pitch pitcher with a splitter in progress. How large are Houck’s time through the order samples? Are they large enough to confirm there isn’t noisy variance baked in? What is the confidence interval for his splits so far to be what we see going forward? Is it common or uncommon for any given pitcher to fare better the second time through the order than the first? Pitchers as a whole do worse; how many instances are there of any given pitcher doing better in the second time through - for a single season? For a career? Mitchel Lichtman, among many others, has written about the three times through the order penalty. In this article, he finds two pieces that tell me it’s at best premature to draw the conclusion you’re drawing about Houck: (1) pitcher deviations from league average TTO penalty have a .03 correlation and require a sample of 1650 IP (8-9+ full seasons as starter) to deduce a statistically meaningful deviation in skill here from the overall pitcher pool. (2) taking pitchers as a whole, there is no statistical correlation between pitches thrown and time through the order penalty, suggesting that it is in fact about hitters being exposed to the pitcher’s arm slot and arsenal, rather than some sort of conditioning or fatigue issue. It doesn’t mean that we aren’t sometimes identifying meaningful things in small samples before it’s “responsible” to conclude them, but along the same lines, you’re demanding us to accept a conclusion at face value that the limited data at hand may or may not support. You’re insisting a hypothesis is a factual conclusion. SOURCE: Mitchel Lichtman c/o Baseball ProspectusFurther, this finding strongly suggests that TTO penalty is all about exposure:Have you looked at P/PA for Houck on first PA for hitters? Perhaps some of what you’re seeing is that Houck is throwing very few pitches to hitters on the first PA on average, which in turn decreases the second PA penalty due to limited exposure. being a two pitch pitcher with a splitter in progress
Houck this year innings 1 through 3:
Pitch Use wOBA Slider 35% .184 Sinker 28% .190 Cutter 16% .193 4-seam 11% .475 Split 10% .111
So, actually, four dominant pitches (admittedly, 2 for RHB and 3 for LHB -- but the latter is where he gets hammered after three innings).
I should look at the specific PA for second time faced but in 3rd inning. We know that on the aggregate, they are better, and that's opposite of what the times-around-order thesis would suggest. And yes, it's a tiny sample size, but your hypothesis is that that Houck's .454 to .962 OPS split is driven by TTO. You should not be able to find any instances where the number went lower, let alone a few. I'm fairly certain that a t-test of the data against a hypothesis of a split that big would fail big-time. We may see!
Here's the argument. We know for a fact that pitchers can reach a point where fatigue sets in, they lose command and make mistakes in the zone, and suffer a precipitous drop in performance.
It's also believed that getting up and down (and throwing your warm-up pitches) makes a small but real contribution to that fatigue. (I bet that's been studied, but I've never seen it.) So "hitting the wall" at the start of an inning is quite credible.
We also know for a fact that there is a real times-around-the-order effect. It's actually bigger than it seems because guys going well in a game ate allowed go go deeper. There was an excellent set of papers trying to correct for that selection bias on Baseball Prospectus, maybe a year ago. The thing is, no one has ever suggested that a pitcher might go from the best in baseball to one of the very worst because of a second or third look. We know how fatigue can do that. How could that happen for a second look at a pitcher with dominating stuff?
(And moving this argument to this thread reminded me of the FG article that reached the same conclusion.)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 1, 2023 18:31:45 GMT -5
Not that I've ever been right about the upcoming rotation ...
Crawford is starting Wednesday on 4 days rest. They can't be unaware of how much he's struggled with that, so here's hoping that they've tweaked his between-starts regimen and that it works.
Against the Jays they can start Paxton on 5 days and Pivetta and Bello on 4.
They can avoid Crawford pitching on 4 by having Murphy as bulk just twice, with both in the lovely week where they play the Royals and Tigers. First and last games of the bunch, in my very likely wrong version.
Sale would start on the 11th vs. the Tigers and maybe go 3 or 4.
They then have an off day, 3 games against the Nats, and then the key stretch starts, 18th to 9/1, at Yanks, at Astros, vs. Dodgers, vs. Astros.
If they get Houck or, preferably Whitlock back by August 20 they can go to a strong 6-man rotation. You have 3 guys with extensive injury histories and one guy who struggles on 4-day rest, and you have Whitlock or Houck as your 6th best starter ... it sure seems like the way to go.
Key questions:
How quickly can Sale get back to his formidable form?
How quickly can Whitlock come back, and how good will he be?
With all the short outings, how does the bullpen hold up?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 1, 2023 17:58:52 GMT -5
Turns out that the need for an extra starter is less than I thought. See the rotation thread.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 1, 2023 16:58:21 GMT -5
Why bother? Team has no set direction. I see you get your talking points from the brainless idiots on sports talk radio.... "Team has no set direction" laughably false There is a "block user" feature, you know.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 1, 2023 16:55:53 GMT -5
Adding Wong means keeping just one of Arroyo, Chang, and Reyes. Probably Chang as the nest SS. I would love to think that they're correct that he's better than two of the three.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 1, 2023 16:31:53 GMT -5
About 35 minutes left. I'm guessing one minor deal at the last minute. Which is all they need.
It's unlikely that a deal they simply like comes their way.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 1, 2023 16:24:43 GMT -5
To reiterate a pair of points ...
If every pitcher were healthy they would have to DFA Bleier. If they add a SP without options, then Rodriguez needs to go as well (or they option Bernadino).
More importantly ...
There's no need for a SP that is better than any of the 6 hoped-for starters (Sale, Bello, Paxton, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock). So what you need is an OK guy with options left. He's a 6th starer immediately, he supplants Murphy-Bulk when Sale returns, and when Whitlock returns, if all are healthy, you option him.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 1, 2023 16:13:17 GMT -5
Why sell for the sake of selling? Use the pieces you have, squeeze as much value out of them as you can, and redeploy whatever money comes off the books elsewhere next year. I know this is a prospects board and all but there does come a point where another potential fourth outfielder or fifth starter type is not compelling enough to give up on the reasonable chance you have to make the playoffs. Simultaneously, it can be true that you don’t think the pitching addition will be valuable enough to justify the price—especially if you can reasonably expect a number of more talented pitchers to return form injury in the near term. Get assets for Paxton instead of letting him walk. Thats not selling for the sake of it. Paxton opted for an insanely team-friendly deal to stay in an organization he trusted completely. Why wouldn't all parties just do that again? Note that any new contract would be structured with a low w $ base plus a series of major IP incentives. If you have good AAA starting depth the injury risk is diminished as a factor. And to repeat, he explicitly trusts our medical staff.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 1, 2023 14:05:28 GMT -5
Looking back, it seems clear that Red Sox’ strong play in June of 2022 and July of 2023 has just screwed them in terms of letting them trade veterans, get under the cap in 22, and build the strongest possible teams for 2024 and beyond. They can still build a good team for 2024, with a little luck, but these two hot streaks, while great fun to watch, have cost us a lot. You're assuming that they had a hot streak and have returned to norm. And why? Because they essentially lost 3 1-run games, because Cora, arguably overdoing the "plan ahead" thing, brought in the last guy in the bullpen three straight games with the team down a run or two.
But that's not the main thing going on here.
It's true that I have a circadian rhythm (sleep cycle) disorder so severe it's supposed to be impossible [1], so I'm a little more tuned into the jet lag thing. I had no strong hopes for this road trip, because changing 3 time zones is disruptive enough. These guys changed 1, then three days later they changed 2 more, then a week later 3 the other way, then a week later 3 the back other way, and they have another 3 the other way due up just before they play the Jays, again a week apart. That's not just nuts, that's criminal. That Yoshida looks like a AA hitter is the no surprise at all.
I'm not sure we can even put a number on how many biological systems are controlled by the sleep clock. When you change time zones, each system adapts to the new one at a different pace.
All of these biological systems go out of synch with one another. That's what jet lag is.
[1] When I was in college I could do 6 days of 28 hours more comfortably then 7 of 24. If you put normal people on a 27 hour clock, their sleep cycles collapses into chaos within a day or two.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 1, 2023 13:08:36 GMT -5
Good analysis as always, eric. Now let's think. The Sox are entering a very intensive part of their schedule - minimal off days - and they're entering it with only 3 really true starters (4 if you count Pivetta, who was heroic in a losing cause last night.) We hear a lot about the reinforcements coming, but I wonder if the cavalry is going to arrive too late, and what the Sox will get out of them if/when they do. Which Kutter are we going to have to deal with over the next 6 weeks? Rested Kutter, or Unrested Kutter? The answer looks pretty clear. My assessment of what to do at the deadline remains the same as it was a few weeks ago. Sell. The only problem I see with that is that if the team makes a significant concession to selling, they may have a problem fielding a viable pitching staff in the short term, depending on what the return from selling is. As I said yesterday, I expect them to add a starting pitcher to give them 6 starters including Murphy-Bulk. Sale supplants Murphy as soon as he has a sharp rehab outing, and stretches out start by start.
Sale, Bello, Paxton, Pivetta, Crawford, Acquisition. Then when Whitlock comes off the IL, he gets the 6 spot and the new guy may well be optioned.
Houck? As I've been saying all year, his problem is stamina, not times facing the hitter.
He has a .504 OPS allowed the first time around the order, but a .454 allowed through the first 3 innings. In the third inning he has been better against the top of the order than he was the first time he faced them.
He has an .812 allowed the second time facing, and a .901 the third time, but a .962 starting in the fourth inning.
As a three-inning reliever he'd make Winck look like a AAA guy. And you'd seriously think about just piggybacking him on Pivetta. Six innings of Pivetta all out and three of Houck, in some order -- if Pivetta doesn't turn back into a pumpkin, you could start game 1 of a playoff series with that combo.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 1, 2023 4:36:50 GMT -5
Before the start of the season I stated that the Sox could be the best team in MLB even without any out-of-nowhere surprises. I've been promoting their upside all season, presenting data that argues that various players were due to improve on their current numbers. So, no.
And I did day "best team in baseball if everyone is healthy," about as big an "if" as we can imagine. So the "talk" you refer to doesn't even exist.
I never posted my prediction for the season (I never got around to looking much at the other 4 AL East teams, so I had no sense of where they would end up in the standings), but it was 94 wins. I started with my 92 wins and first wild card prediction for 2021, and I though this team was at least as good if not a tick better, . and of course the new schedule would help.
The prediction did assume no major injury for Sale. We'll see how good a job I did for everyone else on the roster.
Do other MLB teams also have players with untapped upside and potentially significant contributors on the injured list, or is that just a Boston thing? Of course. Everybody does. But I've been deep-dive Sox fan since 1962 and have used an analytic approach since 1971 (when I read Percentage Baseball). And I've never seen a Sox team that had so many guys whose potential contribution ranged from nothing to massive. I've called it the most interesting team in my memory. The total team variance is like nothing I've ever seen.
Here's a crazy example.
Kutter Crawford has now made six starts on 5 or more days rest, and six on 4 or fewer. Let's call these two guys Rested Kutter and Unrested Kutter. Each guy has 100+ PA. Counting the two Cutters as separate dudes, there are 204 starting pitchers who have faced 100+ hitters.
Here's a condensed version of the list of 204, as ranked by xwOBA.
.213 Jacob de Grom .215 Rested Kutter Crawford .242 Max Fried .264 Drew Rasmussen .275 3-way tie ....
192 other guys
....
.420 Sean Maneaa
.421 Kyle Muller .423 Unredted Kutter Crawford
.430 Luis Cessa .434 Dylan Dodd
Rested Kutter has on average faced just 2.7 guys a third time around the order (2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 3), but he's finishing innings while facing some of the best opponent hitters. That they don't send him out for more suggests that they know his stamina is limited, and that explains the split.
FG projects Kutter with a 4.65 ERA the rest of the way. Rested Kutter has a 2.30 ERA. What do you think he'll actually have if they keep him rested?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 1, 2023 2:50:20 GMT -5
Welp, playoff odds gonna be around 25% when Fangraphs updates. 33% at last year's deadline. Trade market has not returned to the mania of '21. The returns for rental starters Montgomery and Giolito were pretty strong, though. I would be happy to learn we traded Paxton for something like that although those specific packages were not appealing to me. If there's no trade I won't be upset. I'm not optimistic about Duvall's market. The Jeimar Candelairo return was putrid. Two Rule 5 eligible prospects, one an A-ball shortstop with a sub-700 OPS, and the other a pitcher with a 4.73 xFIP in AA that throws 92 MPH. I've got zero interest in being the high bidder for any of the mediocre rentals available unless they're just giving them away. If there are Luis Robert rumors I will get excited. You may not be aware that their odds are based on the following rest-of-season projections, wRC+ and ERA:
119 Casas 118 Turner 100 Duran 100 Duval 98 Story
3.79 Sale 3.99 Paxton 4.21 Bello 4.52 Pivetta 4.65 Crawford
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 31, 2023 23:55:50 GMT -5
Sorry. Its true. Look at the rosters and the standings. Apologize to no one. You are absolutely on-point here. This revisionist “Sox are the best team in baseball” talk really came out of nowhere.Before the start of the season I stated that the Sox could be the best team in MLB even without any out-of-nowhere surprises. I've been promoting their upside all season, presenting data that argues that various players were due to improve on their current numbers. So, no.
And I did day "best team in baseball if everyone is healthy," about as big an "if" as we can imagine. So the "talk" you refer to doesn't even exist.
I never posted my prediction for the season (I never got around to looking much at the other 4 AL East teams, so I had no sense of where they would end up in the standings), but it was 94 wins. I started with my 92 wins and first wild card prediction for 2021, and I though this team was at least as good if not a tick better, . and of course the new schedule would help.
The prediction did assume no major injury for Sale. We'll see how good a job I did for everyone else on the roster.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 31, 2023 21:44:06 GMT -5
I was scrolling the active WAR leaders and one name stuck out like a sore thumb: Kevin Kiermaier. He's 28th with 34.8 career WAR and a 99 OPS+. No clue how he compares to Rafaela at the plate or defensively, but that's a helluva outcome. Only two years below 2 WAR: last year when he had 220 ABs and 2020. If Rafaela can turn into 80% of Kiermaier... " There’s such a high floor here with the defense and power; Kevin Kiermaier has played 11 years and been worth over 30 rWAR with a career .310 OBP because of his defense and has no more power than Rafaela does. If the Curaçao native can focus on swinging at strikes, that kind of career is within reach." Keith Law, in rating him the #48 prospect in baseball.
He also pointed out his terrible plate discipline in AAA (at the time, 24.7% SO, 1.4 BB) while ignoring his .294 / .343 / .576 line in 73 PA.
Since then he's 21.1%, 5.3%, and has slashed .361 / .395 / .667 in 36 PA.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 31, 2023 21:23:33 GMT -5
Median EV off of Kirby is 100.6.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 31, 2023 21:16:25 GMT -5
The bottom line: the Sox are tied with the Orioles and Astros for 7th in MLB in schedule-adjusted run differential. Two games ago they were 5th.
And that calculation includes all of Kluber, all of Kiké, all of Casas before May 7, only 13 crazy-great games from Duval (including his last 5!) versus 31 bad ones, a 5.40 ERA from Pivetta in 57 innings before he went Bulk vs. a 1.85 ERA in 24 IP since ... and you can go on further with that sort of thing
They are already a way better team than the one that put up the above ranking, and if they get solid versions of Story and Sale, they get that much better.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 31, 2023 20:46:58 GMT -5
Pitching is expensive and unreliable. The free agent market should be the last place you look for pitching, because the more money you dump into pitching, the more money you’ll have languishing on the IL. There is no guarantee that the controllable type of pitcher people are talking about is going to pitch any better than Crawford or Pivetta, and Sale is close to coming back. That's five slots plus Houck and Whitlock in addition to the off days and expanded rosters in September. Controllable young SPs are also expensive, they are just expensive in terms of prospects rather than dollars. They don't need the guy to be better than Crawford or Pivetta. They need a body. Without an extra guy, Bello, Paxton, Crawford, Pivetta, and bulk Murphy will all be pitching on 4 rest test, and that is something they have spent all year trying to avoid for Bello and Paxton, and something that has turned Crawford from a stud to a wreck.
If they could get a consistent guy with a 4.25 ERA to hold the fort while guys get healthy, that would be huge, because it will make three or four others guys better ... and healthier.
The goal is to find a guy who can fits that description and has has stealth upside.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 31, 2023 20:29:03 GMT -5
Yeah, there is literally no planet in which healthy 2023 Red Sox are better than healthy 2023 Braves. Also, in regards to paying for pitching, the teams that have ponied up for an "ace" have been pretty massively let down the past couple years. Picking the right pitchers to pay is tough. Braves Orioles Rays Astros (when healthy) Rangers Dodgers etc... The roster isn't bad but you can't put them up against the upper tier squads. I'll say this, they do play well vs upper tier teams. I don't think that folks get that Turner is now starting as many games at 2B as he can manage at his age. This is why they tried him the first two times with Bello pitching -- to get as big a sample size as possible. (I worked this out days ago, before it became more obvious,)
That great play in the national TV game where he crossed over second base was an important moment. That was more than routine. And that's why he he was grinning like an adolescent who just gotten to second base. In exchange for a little bit of 2B defense, you replace Arroyo with Duval in the lineup and Yoshida with Duval in the OF defense.
So, all those teams you listed ... how many are (well, will be soon) in a position where they need to hit someone as good as (one of) Duran, Yoshida or Casas 6th? Followed by Duvall, Verdugo, and Wong. Go to b-Ref and see who has hit 7 to 9 for recent WS winners.
(BTW, Duval in the last 5 games has been the second best hitter on the team, after Casas and ahead of Turner. He's back in the zone.)
I will also take Sale, Bello, Paxton, and Pivetta (bulk or whole, whichever proves to be better) as a post-season starter set.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 31, 2023 19:52:14 GMT -5
I’m sure we will soon hear “our acquisitions are Sale and Story” If you aren’t going to add to a team that is outside looking in, then you should be selling the short terms pieces we have. That the optimal use of assets I think Chaim gets Blackburn or Flaherty. Depends how much money the Cards or As take back and how much each one costs. But its going to have to be a sweet deal for him to pull the trigger. I opined a few weeks ago that they needed to acquire a starting pitcher with options left (to avoid a situation where they need to DFA someone of value should everyone get healthy). A couple of of days ago they actually said that was their preference.
And that fits the mold of what they have said they want to acquire -- long-term pieces. In this case, a guy who can do an OK job for a month and has upside.
So many guys here pitch best on 5 days rest and/or have injury histories that I believe the plan is to go to a 6-man rotation (with skips when they have off-days). Right now they have just 5 even including Murphy as a bulk guy. Hence the real need for an extra arm.
When Sale returns he supplants Murphy. You end up filling the 5 and 6 spots from among Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, and the acquisition.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 31, 2023 19:24:41 GMT -5
To me this isn't a difficult decision. This is not a World Series team. Sell off Paxton, Turner, Duvall or Verdugo. Probably get a better return for Verdugo and sign a vet in the offseason to fill an outfield spot until Ceddanne is ready to come up. They’ve been playing .700 ball for a month If somehow everyone gets healthy, I think they have the best roster in MLB.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 29, 2023 14:49:07 GMT -5
More fun facts ...
Casas since the ASB has a .597 xwOBA and .672 wOBA, in 44 PA.
The runner-up, Kyle Tucker, is .485 / .546.
On the season MLB pitchers are .324 / .323 vs. LHB.
The pitchers Casas has faced since the ASB are collectively, on the season, .302 / .305.
To give you some perspective, Shane McClanahan is .304 / .300 and Pivetta, after his great stretch, is down to .300 / .304.
His average opponent is in the 63rd percentile.
But that includes what Casas just did to them. Max Scheczer was .278 / .298 when Casas faced him recently, and was .296 / .321 when Casas was done with him.
I may or may not do the match to make that adjustment. But how much more astonished can we be?
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 27, 2023 16:33:23 GMT -5
Justin Turner is just a pro’s pro. Tremendous fun to watch hit. It was a great day when he signed. Here's Snitker after last night's Atlanta loss: Obviously Turner has more defensive value than JDM. But given that JDM has the current edge in wRC+, 131 to 127, a naive person might think that the offensive swap was a wash.
JDM has a Win Probability Added of 1.11.
Turner has 2.34.
Turner leads the Sox and ranks 20th in MLB. JDM trails Duran, Devers, and Duval and ranks 74th.
(As I pointed out last winter, this edge was to be expected based on their track records.)
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 27, 2023 13:31:27 GMT -5
Top 8 wOBA since July 8, minimum 40 PA. 200 guys qualify.
.500 .503 .508 .516 .537 .538 .538
What would you predict for the leader? About .544, right?
It's actually .640. And you know who it is. The difference between him and Freddie Freeman / Kyle Tucker is larger than the difference between them and the #16 guy on the list.
So, let's go back in time, 19 days at a chunk. Who are the top 2 guys?
Olson .535 Betts .515 Ohtani .600 Tatis Jr. 512 Judge .574 Freeman .550
Interestingly, the next and final group, April 23 to May 11, has a bunch of non-elite name (L. Gurriel, Jesus Sanchez, Luke Raley are the top 3). That would seem to be guys with a new or changed book on how to pitch them. After that ... it sure seems as if you need to be a complete stud to dominate MLB for 19 days like thus.
Even more meaningful ... Casas since May 7, in 221 PA.
Top 10 in MLB in xwOBA:
Ohtani Seager Acuna
Betts Freeman Soto Olson Yelich Casas Trout
In wOBA:
Ohtani Freeman Seager Betts Soto Casas Acuna Arenado Yelich Tucker
He's been helped a bit by not facing some tough lefties ... but I still think that the odds that he's an elite offensive player -- a guy to hit two spots away from Devers, for years -- are approaching 100%.
And a big part of that is his makeup.
That's the next post.
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