SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 21, 2023 16:17:34 GMT -5
Paxton through July 22 was .278 / .267 (xwOBA / wOBA).
Since then he's .310 / .390 in 4 starts. Despite the 5 HR combined in the Jays and Nats games, his HR / Contact rate is unchanged .062 to .064. His walk rate has actually improved, .068 to .052.
K rate has gone from .368 to .189.
He's had just 2 prior starts on 4 days rest, one bad (May 24 at LAA) , one good (June 24 at CWS), but even in the latter he faced just 16 batters, as they lifted hum after 4.
Early K's will be a good sign. How far they let him go, unknown.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 21, 2023 14:53:22 GMT -5
Obviously it is a crazy contract, and I don’t think *anyone* on this board didn’t react with a kind of horror. But… they will likely get their money this season, at least. X is at 2.7 fWAR for $25 million. That is pretty close. It is brutal big picture since you hope for surplus up front, but it isn’t *that* bad. (I mean for this year in isolation). Story is 2.4 fWAR in his first two years ($40 million). That is an even rougher start. Of course, there are only $100 million more for him, so hr has a far better chance of catching up. No they won't. Not remotely. Situational hitting is a real thing. It may not be predictive, but it happened. A player's worth is based on what actually happened.
Here's the list of Red Sox players (present and past), minimum 260 PA (which gives you 271 players), sorted by Win Probability Added per 600 PA. Name Team WPA PA Rate Rank Mookie Betts LAD 4.82 538 5.37 4 Justin Turner BOS 2.95 483 3.67 16 Jarren Duran BOS 2.15 362 3.57 17 Rafael Devers BOS 1.84 499 2.21 53 J.D. Martinez LAD 1.18 390 1.82 69 Joey Meneses WSN 1.44 508 1.70 75 Tommy Pham - 0.88 328 1.62 78 And. Benintendi CHW 1.15 485 1.43 85 Kyle Schwarber PHI 1.31 551 1.42 87 Masa Yoshida BOS 0.47 463 0.61 121 Alex Verdugo BOS 0.43 477 0.54 125 Mauricio Dubón HOU -0.16 404 -0.24 167 Manuel Margot TBR -0.12 280 -0.25 168 Triston Casas BOS -0.21 405 -0.31 173 Anthony Rizzo NYY -0.60 421 -0.86 199 Enri. Hernández - -0.84 400 -1.27 220 Hunter Renfroe LAA -1.04 472 -1.32 223 Xander Bogaerts SDP -1.26 508 -1.48 234 Connor Wong BOS -1.40 309 -2.72 259 Christ. Vázquez MIN -1.39 274 -3.04 262
In terms of actual impact on winning, Xander has performed like a bad #8 hitter.
This is the fourth straight year that he's been a bad situational hitter.
Casas, BTW, had a -1.73 rate through July 4 and is 2.77 since. That's going from 239th ranked to 37th.
EDIT: Duval is 2.56.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 21, 2023 14:06:25 GMT -5
Top 12 MLB Hitters, Win Probability Added per 600 PA (minimum 125 PA). See if you can spot the outlier. Name Team PA wRC+ WPA Rate Chas McCormick HOU 325 149 3.74 6.91 Corey Seager TEX 367 189 4.13 6.75 Kyle Tucker HOU 514 145 5.28 6.17 Mookie Betts LAD 538 165 4.82 5.37 Ronald Acuña ATL 568 165 5.08 5.36 Aaron Judge NYY 302 176 2.69 5.34 Yordan Alvarez HOU 337 158 2.91 5.18 Luke Raley TBR 337 136 2.79 4.97 Shohei Ohtani LAA 546 182 4.26 4.68 Pablo Reyes BOS 132 121 1.03 4.67 Cody Bellinger CHC 387 148 2.89 4.48 Freddie Freeman LAD 560 165 4.17 4.47
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 20, 2023 15:52:14 GMT -5
I'm not sure I didn't hallucinate this game.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 20, 2023 14:44:44 GMT -5
See tomorrow for the latest Win Probability Added comp, JT versus JDM. Prediction: large.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 20, 2023 0:00:36 GMT -5
Betting line for AL ROY has Henderson as the odds-on favorite at -210, and a big gap (to +Tanner Bibee at 1200) after 2 and 3. Who are of course Yoshida and Casas, +350 and +400.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 19, 2023 23:38:00 GMT -5
ericmvan , any time you break down a partial season you are looking at very small sample sizes. If you also cherry-pick the start of a hot streak, this aspect gets exaggerated. Even a fair coin flipped 500 times will have distinct "hot" and "cold" streaks if analyzed that way. So I do much as you do - but also appreciate chunking the data in ways that are somewhat arbitrary (e.g. calendar months). A meaningful change in approach will still show through the numbers, if less dramatically. You're making a mistake that is pretty much ubiquitous ... looking at just the sample size without looking at the effect size. And to some degree (however small) you're also treating the players as random number generators around a fixed performance ... and we know that's not how it works.
Let's look at the dramatic improvement in walk rate. Given Casas' prior history as a AAA hitter with excellent strike zone command, we had an a priori expectation that this would happen. How often would a random number generator produce a false appearance of an improvement this large, given the overall walk rate in these first two chunks of season? Once in 159 trials (Fisher exact test, p value halved because this is one-tailed). We can construct a narrative that explains everything that happened here, beginning with the initial struggle (which I leave for the reader to deduce) and ending with the decline in his walk rate when he starts to hit (a bit tougher; he stops fouling everything off and hence gets to fewer 3-ball counts). And the contents of this narrative are completely unsurprising. In contrast, the narrative where nothing is happening except random chance, which just happens to mimic a coherent narrative -- that's ludicrous.
It's absolutely true that some hitters don't ever alter their approach, and run hot or cold via the combination of (sometimes gradual) changes to the quality of their swing execution, and luck. You will look in vain for changes in approach ... but sometimes you can identify real hot and cold streaks, and you can see that in their swing. Manny Ramirez had very evident cold streaks, lasting 12 +/- 1 game, and Jerry Remy use to to correctly identify when he was getting his swing back. Heck, I once correctly called the end of a Brian Daubach slump after a PA where he struck out -- because he had obviously fixed a problem where he was opening up his lead shoulder way too early, and had smoked a long foul on the pitch before he fanned. It's not rocket science.
It's also absolutely true (to get back on topic) that you can't use Home Runs per Contact to delimit a change in approach; too much noise. What you can do, in this case, is take the date of that improvement, combine that with Casas' own statements about being more aggressive early in the count, and do a deep data dive to determine when he changed his approach at the plate as he said he did. Someone would have to pay me to do that, though!
(I'll note that the work I did on this thread has made me change my date for when Casas' performance becomes predictive, from May 7 (the cherry-picked beginning of his success) to May 3 (the apparent beginning of his more aggressive approach.)
-----
Finally, seeing that you're a "rookie" with 50 or so posts, I want to welcome you here, as you obviously know your stuff, and analytically-minded posters are always valuable contributors. What you don't have to do is explain anything to me. I know it's is hard to tell the difference someone who is breaking rules because they don't know them and someone who is doing it very consciously because they believe they can do better by violating them, for whatever reason.
I'm not big on self-promotion, so I'll just give you a quick description of my first original analytics project, to give you a sense of where I'm coming from. I calculated the combined career BA, OBP, and SA of every significant MLB player in history relative to the offensive level they played in (which of course varied wildly). In 1973. With a pocket calculator. That was several years before the idea cropped up in print (in Sports Illustrated, who of course did just BA). Lots of good stuff subsequently, including the only proof that any form of of "clutch" hitting is real (hitting with men on versus bases empty).
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 17, 2023 15:28:53 GMT -5
Reyes has started 10 straight games, at 2B except when needed at SS. Urias is only playing 2B when Reyes is at SS. So their roles should be swapped on the roster page.
As evidenced by the prior absence of this thread, you guys are always quick to spot such changes! So this seems to just be a fluke oversight.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 17, 2023 0:14:42 GMT -5
It's quite a story, especially when you dig deeper.
1) First, it's now clear that the insultingly low offer to Xander Bogaerts was right on the money; in fact, way generous for this year. He's not just having his worst offensive year since 2017, but he's also having his 4th straight awful year situationally (-1.13 WPA). He's at 2.8 fWAR but when you adjust for situation, it's about 1.1.
So re-signing him was always a Plan B, should he accept what they believed was a fair offer but what would seem like a very team-friendly to everyone else. And so far they have been right.
2) I've always liked Arroyo as the bench middle-infielder but never thought of him as a starer. I believe the original plan was to open the season with him starting at 2B and Chang in the backup role, and then have Mondesi take over 2B (while shedding Chang, or less likely, Arroyo, if needed). The fourth guy on the depth chart was Valdez.
The Story injury changed nothing, except Kiké taking Story's role, and Duvall being signed to tale his.
3) This is easy to forget (and is an aside to this story, but a big one). From April 12 to 24, Kiké started 6 games in CF, 5 at 2B, and just 2 at SS. In that stretch Dalbec (!) started 1 game at SS and then Chang started 10 of the other 12. All but one of Kiké's games in CF came before Duran was recalled and all of his games at 2B came after .
They had punted Kiké as regular SS after 11 games. Maybe provisionally, but the defensive upgrade (Kiké > Chang) dwarfed the offensive downgrade (Arroyp > Chang). I'd be surprised if there hadn't been a discussion as to whether Kiké should move to 2B or SS, and whether Chang or Arroyo should be added to the starting lineup until Mondesi was ready. We know that they went for Kiké / Arroyo, but we also know that they quickly figured out that the other alternative was better. How different is the season if Chang doesn't break that bone?
.
4) When Chang got hurt they quickly recalled Valdez. And then Arroyo strains a hammy and after some days of trying to play through it, has to go on the IL on May 7, despite having hit .458 / .500 / .708 in his last 24 PA. Of course he never hits like that again.
The Sox now need to acquire a middle-infielder, because Bobby Dalbec can't really fill that role and they regard David Hamilton as unready.
Pablo Reyes had started 21 of 37 games for the Las Vegas Aviators -- 6 at 2B, 4 each at SS and 3B, 3 in CF, and 2 each in LF and as DH. He was hitting .257 / .385 / .351.
I wonder ... to what extent do MLB team have lists of AAA guys with no options left who can be had for essentially nothing should they have a string of injuries at an already thin position? If they do, where would a guy who had started just 57% of games for the AAA affiliate of the worst ream in MLB usually rank? Anywhere?
It took 4+ days to grab Reyes for cash, but that included 2 off days; they went 6 days and 4 games with Dalbec on the roster instead. That suggests to me that he was on a list of candidates already, but they did some further study to choose him.
And the rest is history ... or (so far) a crazy fluke.
In any case, when I adjust Reyes' fWAR for situational hitting ... I get 1.0 or 1.1. That is somewhat better bang for the buck than the other guy.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 16, 2023 13:22:40 GMT -5
I have pointed out that I have never, I mean never, correctly predicted Cora's upcoming rotation.
Until a few days ago!
Whereupon I decided I was wrong and did two further versions.
Cora said yesterday that Houck is going to start the first Houston game, to give Paxton an extra day of rest. But of course that gives everyone an extra day, including fragile Sale, wilting Bello, and Crawford who has struggled on 4 days rest.
And it seems obvious that they'll do this again. Pivetta will start the last Yankees game on 4 days rest, but after that everyone is on 5 days.
NYY: Bello, Crawford, Pivetta Hou: Houck, Paxton, Sale, Bello LAD: Crawford, Pivetta, Houck Hou: Paxton, Sale, Bello.
I could see them swapping Paxton and Sale at the end.
The reason why I thought this wouldn't work is that the three guys who can give you length -- Paxton, Sale, and Bello -- are all pitching in succession, with the three short-outing guts following. But It's probably OK to alternate a heavy bullpen workload over three games with a light one over three. Not ideal, but workable.
A final note: since being sent down Walter has pitched innings 1-2 on 5 days rest, 2 to 4 plus an extra out on 6 days, and 1 to 3 on 5 days. This looks like prep for a recall if needed. In a worst-case scenario they could option Murphy and recall Walter just to get a fresh arm; the downgrade isn't that big, and ideally you use these guys in low leverage (with a big lead!).
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 16, 2023 12:57:03 GMT -5
This is reassuring ... Pivetta's xwOBA / wOBA as a bulk guy and subsequently:
.163 / .175 .325 / .268 .180 / .286 .085 / .070 .222 / .186
.180 / .270
.349 / .430 .356 / .359 -- 4 seam FB going from awesome to awful in these two outings .245 / .361 last night.
I guessed as much based on his xBA but it's good to know for certain that there was a lot of bad luck involved.
Even better: excluding the 3rd inning he was as dominant as always, .153 / .217. In the 3rd he was .395 / .596, throwing 31 of his 86 pitches. And it was the curve that got killed, .358 / .555 in 7 PA on the day. That's very unusual for him.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 16, 2023 4:31:10 GMT -5
Three bits, newest to oldest, and in increasingly tasty.
1) I disagree with my old friend David Laurila that Estaban's Rivera's FG piece on Casas is "worth your time." Breaking down a hitter's progress by month can often be a god-awful idea. Guys do make discrete alterations in approach and when they do, they do not do so on the first of the f-ingf month. The first thing you do when a guy has improved is try to identify, by evidence, any dates when he seems to have done something new or different.
Casas' 2023 game log just screams "changes of approach." I mean, 2 walks in his first 38 PA, then 15 in his next 58? You know, your typical 391% increase in walk rate, not worth noticing. Or, lets lump his July together because, you know, calendar, when he had a 216% increase in HR / Contact after the ASB ... i.e., in mid-July. *
How you could write an analysis of a player's season without looking at the game log (and the game-by-game statcast numbers) baffles me. I would guess that in this case, doing it by months adds as much noise as there is signal. I couldn't read it.
* .048 to .152. Comparison begins after May 3 when he became more aggressive and started hitting better.
Parts 2 and 3 later.
.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2023 22:59:06 GMT -5
What part of Peak Projection did you not understand? Sorry, my mistake, I missed that. I was going by your summary "Basically, this is a RHB version of Kevin Kiermaier (career OBP .310) but with 25 HR instead of 12. That's a pretty tasty projection," and not realizing what the antecedents were of "this" and "that." Yeah, the proper response is "sure hope Clay D. is right!" Of more properly, his algorithm.
But this got me thinking. Here's a same-age comp between Rafela 2023 and Will Middlebrooks, who did not fare well in Peak Projection. WM played that season largely in AA, 397 PA vs. 60 in AAA, where he struggled. Name PA HRC SO% BB% Mbrooks 457 .063 .247 .053 Rafaela 427 .058 .208 .052 AAA 161 .104 .211 .050 AA 266 .031 .207 .053
Identical walk rates. Homers per contact, very close. (And Rafaela in AAA is the same hitter as in AA except for a crazy boost on in HRC.)
Middlebooks strikes out 19% more often. That's going to hurt his projection, but is it really enough to turn a first-division starter projection to borderline starter?
I'm being a bit disingenuous here, because I left out two important numbers, for phony dramatic effect. Some time after my first post I recalled a conversation I had with Clay D. at a SABR conference, where he confirmed my suspicion that the following two numbers are part of the projection system.
6'3" 240 lbs 5' 9" 165 lbs
It makes perfect sense that, at a certain level of homer hitting (good but nor great), having the first body doesn't tell you that much about bat-to-ball skills; you're going yard because you're competent, and big and strong. Whereas nearly matching that number with the second body indicates a high percentage of barrelling, and hence very good bat-to-ball skills.
Note that this is not a statement about any one player. Rather, it seems to be a discovery (or verification of a suspicion) that this is the general case, a discovery made because Clay D. was smart enough to put body type into his data.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 14, 2023 13:28:36 GMT -5
Basically, this[Rafaela] is a RHB version of Kevin Kiermaier (career OBP .310) but with 25 HR instead of 12. That's a pretty tasty projection.
EDIT: Oh yes, a KK who can also play the middle infield when needed.
(It's worth noting that the Davenport Translations are tough on guys with poor strike zone command. E.g., he had Will Middlebrooks correctly when everyone else saw him as a star.)
Wow, what odds can I get for taking the under on Rafaela hitting 25 home runs anytime through age 26? What part of Peak Projection did you not understand?
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 14, 2023 13:02:17 GMT -5
I built this tool today that estimates OPS based on BB%, K%, BABIP and extra base hits. It's by no means an exact science but I think it gives a good rough estimate of where a player's OPS could end up I really just wanted to play around with Ceddanne's numbers and see what he could realistically produce if he maintains these BB and K rates. His realistic OPS isn't that high if his BB rate stays under 5%, maybe like low 700s at best ops-generator.glitch.me/Clay Davenport, the original stats guy for Baseball Prospectus, has spent his career doing what you just did on a virtual envelope back. No criticism at all of your attempt -- I do the same sort of thing all the time! Just pointing out there's a really detailed model based on the same idea.
And here are the results of his Peak Projections. Last number is EqA, which is essentially wOBA but expressed as a BA equivalent rather than OBP, with .260 defined as average.
.235 .287 .352 = .224 -- 2019 in GCL. Slash line does not include his 12 PA for Lowell, EgA does. COVID .246 .283 .408 = .241 -- 2021 in low-A .282 .314 .505 = .276 -- 2022 in high-A .271 .302 .455 = .259 -- 2022 in AA .279 .303 .410 = .253 -- 2023 in AA .281 .311 .536 = .271 -- 2023 in AAA
The combined EqA's for the last two years are .266 and .260. But he was .276 in high-A and is now putting up .271 in AAA.
His 600-PA HR projection from his AAA line is 33; based on the whole year, 22.
Basically, this is a RHB version of Kevin Kiermaier (career OBP .310) but with 25 HR instead of 12. That's a pretty tasty projection.
EDIT: Oh yes, a KK who can also play the middle infield when needed.
(It's worth noting that the Davenport Translations are tough on guys with poor strike zone command. E.g., he had Will Middlebrooks correctly when everyone else saw him as a star.)
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 14, 2023 0:59:33 GMT -5
Abreu now .467 / .520 / 1.178 in August (50 PA).
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 14, 2023 0:44:36 GMT -5
Off day for Teel, just a .400 OBP and .500 SA (1/4, 2B, BB).
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 13, 2023 9:59:18 GMT -5
Hard to resist this comp ... Rutshman and Teel, first 21 and 20 pro PA, respectively
R: age 21 y 171 d T: age 21 y 176 d (birthday 9 days later, but season started c. 2 weeks later)
R: .105 / .191 / .263 T: .529 / .600 / .765
R: 16 PA in rookie ball, 4 in A- (defunct NYP lg) T: 9 PA in rookie ball, 11 in A
R took 108 PA to get to A ball. He went 0 for 8 with 3 BB in his first 11 PA.
(Granted, A ball is probably weaker now, after short-season A ball was junked)
No pretense of meaning, but ain't it fun?
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 12, 2023 16:03:21 GMT -5
EV's of 74.0, 87.9, 93.8. But xBA of .920, .510, .570.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 11, 2023 11:32:02 GMT -5
Eight players have an xwOBA of .400 or better against RHP, beginning May 7. That's out of 143 guys with 200+ PA.
Second number is wOBA.
.459 / .496 Ohtani .443 / .425 Acuna Jr. .424 / .430 Olson .419 / .413 Casas .415 / .417 Soto .412 / .414 Freeman .409 / .403 Betts .406 / .422 Yelich
Pretty decent company.
He does rank 239 out of 281 guys with 40+ PA vs. LHP, with .261 / .280. And he has 40 on the nose. So there is still work to be done.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 8, 2023 14:56:03 GMT -5
Yu Chang got the DFA Nice year for the young man. Got to be a hero during the WBC, had a baby and made a million bucks. Out of 54 SS with 50+ "attempts" ...
Chang ranks 4th in Success Rate Added with +3%
Reyes ranks 42nd with -2%.
Over the last 3 years they're +2 and -3.
The numbers say that 1 play per 20 is made by Chang but not Reyes. That's bigger than it sounds -- an extra .050 in BA and hence OBA
on balls hit to SS.
At the plate, Reyes is .336 / .337 (expected / actual wOBA) and Chang is .264 / .237. That's bigger than the defensive deficit, with room for regression on Reyes' part. EDIT: You also have to include the number of non-routine plays at SS versus the number of PA on offense ... but they're probably close to one another.
And you can minimize the defensive difference by trying to avoid Story's days off when Bello is pitching.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 8, 2023 14:01:57 GMT -5
With Reyes as a 2-way player, Sox could keep Chang and cut LLoveras Yes, this. Lloveras is gone by Friday in any event with Sale due back, so this move would buy a couple of days before having to decide amongst your three not-ready-for-primetime utility infielders. I wonder if it was a mistake to call up Urias to begin with; if you now want to send him back down you have to expose him. No, he's got options left. You would have to wait to recall him, though.
Given that Arroyo cleared wavers, it would seem likely that Chang would -- unless some contender had a SS inujury in the last week.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 8, 2023 13:47:34 GMT -5
if I had an 11.9% chance of winning tonight's lottery, I'd spend all my time today online looking at cars and houses. ^^^Hahah the odds do get pretty stupid at a certain point. Not saying that they are inaccurate in the aggregate, but we're talking about 50 games remaining in a season. The swings from game to game almost remind me of how the odds change within a college/NBA basketball game on ESPN Gamecast. Say the odds are 50-50 between two teams in the middle of the 3rd quarter, and then one team hits two consecutive 3 pointers.. all of a sudden it's 60-40 in favor of that team, even though there are still close to 20 minutes left in the game. If the Red Sox were to win the next two games, and the Blue Jays were to lose the next two... There would be another 20% narrowing in the margin. At some point, you have to take at least a glance beyond the numbers. Discounting the daily fluctuations and that last brutal series in-division series, I feel like the Sox odds are somewhere between 20-25%. I think that Reyes gave this team a jolt last night, like we hadn't seen in months, even with that great month of July. I want to post again some of the ROS projections that the 11.9% are based on:
wRC+
Casas 119 (he's 149 since May 7) Turner 117 Duran 100 Story 99
(Casas and Duran projections include their last two years in the minors.)
ERA
Bello 4.23 (he's 3.25 since May 10, when he beat the Braves; he's 6th in MLB in bWAR / IP, minimum 12 GS)
Paxton 4.11 (10th in MLB in that start)
Sale 3.80
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 8, 2023 12:49:54 GMT -5
It's now been a month exactly since he started hitting at AAA. It's easy to forget that he hit .182 / .229 / .364 in his first 9 G / 35 PA.
Since then he's had 105 PA and is .379 / .429 / .800. His hot stretch breaks neatly into three chunks. I've included the cold start for comparison. PA SO% BB% BA OBP SA 35 .200 .029 .182 .229 .364 33 .303 .000 .367 .424 .761 35 .257 .029 .353 .371 .677 37 .135 .135 .419 .487 .984
That’s a profound shift in the BB% in particular. What happens when you toggle the PA column to level off the PAs more smoothly, say to 35-35-35? Is there any underlying logic in bundling the PAs the way you did? (Not suggesting there was any data manipulation, just curious.) I considered doing 35 x 3 but that would mean going into game logs and dividing single games into 2 different buckets, which would actually add noise -- SP in a game in 1 bucket, relievers in another.
I did start by trying to identify changes in SO and BB %. Note that he had a 4 walk game in the last group, second game vs. the Syracuse Mets, and didn't walk in the remaining 4 games against them, but that looks like the Mets realizing that he's not chasing as he was in early July against them (7 K, 1 W in 28 PA).
The last group goes:
12 PA, 1 K, 1 BB, .546 / .583 / .909 (first 2 games against Rochester) HR and 4 BB 15 PA, 3 SO, 0 BB, .215 / .200 / .857 (HR in each game, 5 straight games overall) 3/5, 2B, SO in last game of series.
21 Woo games left before MLB rosters expand.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 8, 2023 10:22:34 GMT -5
It's now been a month exactly since he started hitting at AAA. It's easy to forget that he hit .182 / .229 / .364 in his first 9 G / 35 PA.
Since then he's had 105 PA and is .379 / .429 / .800. His hot stretch breaks neatly into three chunks. I've included the cold start for comparison. PA SO% BB% BA OBP SA 35 .200 .029 .182 .229 .364 33 .303 .000 .367 .424 .761 35 .257 .029 .353 .371 .677 37 .135 .135 .419 .487 .984
|
|
|