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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 13, 2024 12:13:21 GMT -5
Getting Jansen for 3/30 would be pretty exciting imo. I think McGuire is a lock to get non-tendered. I'm less optimistic on Jansen. He has a .312 xwOBA since the start of 2023 and will be going into his age 30 season. ZiPS seems to love him but I'm not sure I'm buying it... In any case, what's your reason for thinking he'd be relatively inexpensive? If you think it would be exciting to get him for 3/30, maybe he'll get offers for a lot more than that.
I dunno, just seems kind of inefficient to spend on a FA catcher when they have Wong and Teel to hold down the position for peanuts. But then, I suppose that's their situation at pretty much every other position too.
I would think at some point next year Teel forces his way to Boston. Dont see how giving Danny Jansen, say 3 years 30 million makes a lot of sense when it's just a matter of time before he's little more than a backup catcher. Might as keep Wong around as the backup who can play regularly if need be or play other positions if need be, for a lot less money. Why pay all that extra money when they need to be investing it in pitching? Now, if by signing Danny Jansen, the idea is that it allows for them to deal Wong for pitching then that's a different situation, one worth exploring.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 12, 2024 9:50:59 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure one thing will come out of this Duran mess.
His goal was to play every day and he has worn that like a badge of honor.
His stupid a-holish retort will earn him a suspension (rightfully so) and will cost him his goal of playing 162 games and as a bonus it'll leave the Sox without their dynamic leadoff man. Worse, O'Neill is out so they cant simply put up an O'Neill/Rafaela/Abeu OF alignment.
His foolishness cost the team. If he would have called the heckler an a-hole or told him to f off, nobody would have raised an eyebrow, but instead he insulted a large group of people, about a week after one of baseball's ambassadors, Billy Bean, passed away.
I'm not going to get sanctimonious, but when I was younger and dumber I'm sure I did something as a-holish as that, but I've learned and have grown and have changed my attitude. There's a lot about today's world I dislike and things about the past I preferred (TV, music, style of baseball play, and even politics come to mind), but the striving for equality and tolerance is something that is better about today than in the past. I've learned that and I certainly hope Duran learns it, too, and becomes a better person for it.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 12, 2024 7:21:04 GMT -5
There's plenty of risk involved with trading top prospects for a pitcher, too. 100% but that’s also the only realistic avenue right now to add a top flight starter. I dont see it as the only realistic option. The Sox are going to have to spend money and surpass the luxury tax limit at some point if they truly expect to win. Right now their goal is to compete to be 1 of 6 teams to make the post season and hope to catch lightning in a bottle during the post season and so far that route has lead to them missing the playoffs 3 times in 4 years and they're in jeopardy of making it 4 out of 5. Yes, they have an incredible stream of positional talent coming up in the next year or so, but very little of that talent that will impact them is pitching. I think at some point they have to aim for the division and to be in the mix for top 1 or 2 seed. They were that caliber of team when they went over the luxury tax and spent money to secure top talent. They dont even really need to spend their money on position players which cuts down half the field and the guys they have other than Devers are very cheap, so they should have plenty of money to spend. If you're telling me they wont spend it, I can understand why you feel that way. I wouldn't bet my life they do either, but between Burnes, Fried, or Eovaldi, the Sox need to pick up 1 of them and they need to spend to improve the pen.i think this offseason should be the offseason they finally are one of the top spending teams. If not they're always going to run short of pitching after the all star break. This offseason it was we're not going to bring anybody of significance in other than Giolito who ironically had no suitors willing to pay anything near what he was offered by the Sox and they trade Sale so it wasnt really addition. The attitude seemed to be that they hired new pitching gurus who were going to work miracles with what they had, no other additions really needed. This we'll outsmart everybody else attitude has been there with the Sox the past 5 years and hasn't served them well. Many pundits thought the Sox were short in the pitching dept but looked foolish when Bailey and company was creating a pitching masterpiece in April and May but now the pundits are looking more prescient these days as the Sox pitching depth has been questionable. Yes, houck and for awhile Crawford has emerged and Criswell has been useful depth but Bello has not progressed nor has Pivetta turned into the top notch talent that he flashes for stretches. Bullpen options like Weissert and Campbell have shriveled while Slaten has panned out. This isnt to say that Bailey and company have failed, but rather they shouldn't have to be put in a position of being saviors and they should be given better talent to work with. If the Sox miss the playoffs yet again I would hope that would make them act with more urgency to improve the pitching but not at the expense of their greatest asset, their cheap emerging core of talent on the way up.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 11, 2024 14:49:03 GMT -5
That, and what kind of talent are you getting for the marginal talent that was traded away? A middle reliever. Yankees got a better reliever (1.5 fWAR this year) with a few years of control for their marginal talent I dont think Leiter is all that, though. His ERA was half a run higher than Garcia'd at the time of the deal. Same thing with the prior few years.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 11, 2024 14:43:40 GMT -5
Welcome to the wonderful world of trading for relievers!
And by the way, the loss of Slaten has really been underrated for this team. He was incredibly valuable for them.
To be fair, neither were exactly the type of reliever you point to as a huge addition. Sims had a - fWAR at the time of the trade and Garcia is on his 6th team in 11 years. Kinda what you get bargain bin shopping. That, and what kind of talent are you getting for the marginal talent that was traded away? A middle reliever.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 11, 2024 13:57:47 GMT -5
Time to find something more entertaining to watch. Oh nice, another HR. They're a damn joke.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 11, 2024 13:56:42 GMT -5
How predictable was that?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 11, 2024 13:38:09 GMT -5
Slip of mind. Point still stands they aren’t going to spend on a big time talent because the risk might not be worth the reward. Trade market is the most realistic option. There's plenty of risk involved with trading top prospects for a pitcher, too.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 11, 2024 12:53:30 GMT -5
Cards DFA’d Nick Robertson I'm guessing Bloom's input on that trade was something the Cardinals listened to, lol.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 11, 2024 12:45:33 GMT -5
Jeez, when 72 year old Rich Hill looks like the savior....that's not good.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 11, 2024 12:44:27 GMT -5
Unf'ing real.
Paxton is injured again. Well Criswell can start again - oh wait he has covid.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 11, 2024 9:49:21 GMT -5
I mean, if the September call up is a third catcher, there's a non-zero chance they DFA Heineman and call up Gasper if they like him behind the plate. Huge if though. Yes, definitely a non zero chance but with only 1 of those 2 additions to be a non pitcher unless I'm wrong about them being allowed 14 pitchers in September to be on the roster. I'd guess whoever gets bumped off the roster when Hendriks is activated would be one pitcher returning. I'd guess that Story returns and takes an additional spot and Sogard remains unless they decide to give Grissom another chance but I'd think with less playing time up for grabs upon Story's return and that Sogard hasn't looked overmatched and offers more defensive flexibility, they keep things as is. If health allows this is what I think the 28 man roster looks like in September: Starters: Houck Crawford Pivetta Bello Paxton Relievers: K. Jansen Hendriks Martin Garcia Simms Kelly Criswell Bernardino Booser Catchers Wong D. Jansen Infielders Casas Story Rafaela (he'll play some CF, too. 2b?) Devers Hamilton Gonzalez Sogard Outfielders O'Neill Duran Abreu Refsnyder Yoshida It is possible its Gasper or even Grissom instead of Sogard, but I would think it would be Grissom only if he was playing regularly and I dont think he'll be the guy they want to throw into the heat of the wild card race in September. I'd guess if one of those pitchers goes down then Winckowski would be next in line.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 11, 2024 8:30:45 GMT -5
Gasper 4/7 with a HR in the double header (2B then DH). He's up to .401/1.179. I'm all aboard the Gaspar train, let's get this guy a cup o coffee. I think if the brass really believed in Gasper they simply would have called him up rather than trading for Danny Jansen.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 10, 2024 17:48:15 GMT -5
It’s officially 2023 again. I feel like this years team is better, and has more athleticism and youth. Last year the hope was that Sale, Paxton, and Bello would continue to be a Big 3, but they all got injured or struggled and the team fell apart. Your statistical point stands though. I can understand why it feels and looks the same as last year. I didnt want to sell last year and knew I was wrong within a week as soon as Toronto swept them. I guess the only difference is my feeling, which admittedly doesn't mean much. I expect Houston will sweep them, but unlike last year when Toronto swept them I wont feel like it's over, even though I will be pissed. I think the wild card race will go into September. I have no delusions that they're catching Baltimore or New York. They dont have to. I have trouble believing the Twins will shake off Ryan's injury or that the Royals wont struggle at some point. And the Mariners arent that frightening even with Arozarena and Turner. That's why I think this chase will go into September and I think/hope the Sox have another run in them at some point.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 10, 2024 17:41:07 GMT -5
What a waste.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 10, 2024 17:37:17 GMT -5
Great. Nice squander to lose the game.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 10, 2024 17:36:13 GMT -5
3-1 he pops up. Great situational hitting
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 10, 2024 16:10:11 GMT -5
We’re making this bum look like Cy Young up there today They made Kaleb Ort and Tayler Scott look good yesterday, too.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 10, 2024 15:16:35 GMT -5
Had a feeling that was coming.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 10, 2024 10:53:24 GMT -5
The pessimism on here after a loss or 2 is crazy. Sox in good shape. Juat won 3 serries in a row. Generally getting healthier. Improved the holes at the deadline without significant loss. I guarantee other teams fear the Sox. Are we perfect. No. That said, the future looks pretty dam good to me and the nextbstep is making the playoffs and getting these kids feet wet in October. I think its more concern than optimism or pessimism. The concern is for how badly the pitching is getting clobbered on a nightly basis since the all star break. I think the Sox are better than Minnesota and KC, have a better roster. I thought this team would lose 87 games prior to the season. I worried the pitching would resemble what we're currently seeing the past few weeks. I now think the Sox should win 87 games and should be a playoff team as I think either KC or Minnesota should fall sooner or later although having the ChiSox in their division must feel like a godsend, the way everybody used to beat up on the hapless Orioles once upon a time. So I think the Sox should make the playoffs but I worry that the pitching could undermine them, especially if the pen keeps giving away games as I believe that is the most mentally draining way to lose. They gave away that opener in LA and flatlined the rest of the weekend. They blew that game against the Yankees and were flat the next day too. They blew a game against the Rockies and lost 2 of 3. Now they blew last nights game a d I'm worried it carries over into today and tomorrow. They really cant afford to keep giving games away. I do like where things are heading long term but I think they need to spend so they truly improve the team and dont put too much pressure on the incoming core talent they have coming up soon.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 10, 2024 10:12:07 GMT -5
The thing is that I think their best offensive lineup has O'Neill in it, even against righties, which would put Rafaela and Story as the middle infielders and theyve yet to out Rafaela at 2b, and perhaps Story, even though hes better defensively at SS, might be temporarily best served making the shorter throws from 2b.
Their best defensive lineup has Story at SS, Hamilton at 2b, Duran in LF with Rafaela in CF, but O'Neill would get squeezed out.
Sure upon could platoon but then O'Neill would miss out on a lot of playing time if hes not facing righties. I get that ge does most of his damage against lefties, but if Story is not going to be able to replace O'Neill's bat, theyll be too heavy lefty in the lineup. I also think Story would struggle mightily offensively and be very rusty. By times hes ready to play the minors should be wrapping up their season and he wont her needed ABs there.
I have no doubt they could use Story's glove, though.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 10, 2024 8:45:51 GMT -5
They need to spend on pitching, proven pitching, not gamble on if this guy scraps his four seamer, adds a cutter stuff, etc.
I know that middle relief is more variable but they need to also find another Chris Martin (or the original) and sign another Mike Timlin type, a free agent signing that they did 21 years ago of a proven guy that would give them 5 solid seasons.
They have guys coming off the books. There's no reason why they must stay at the luxury tax limit other than to generate a heftier profit margin.
If they needed to 'raise" more money than maybe they pay down half of Story's and/or Yoshida's contract(s) in a trade.
For other teams Yoshida, who can hit, isnt necessarily an albatross at 9 million, nor is Story, at 13 million if he stays healthy.
But that would be 22 million saved if they needed to reshape that money for something else, whether it's one of them or both.
I think that if they cant get Burnes or even Fried, they should be able to make a good offer to try to entice Eovaldi back.
I figure theyll be letting Kenley go and their plan is probably restore Hendriks to his closing role. Dumping 16 million should open them up to be able to finance most of 2 good solid relievers with track records to set up.
I know in a perfect world you dont spend on past performance and you invest in a young up and coming guy that you think is about to pop, which is a lot easier said than done and is fraught with risk, too, if you get it wrong or if the guy gets hurt and you've spent major prospect currency.
I think the Sox have two major advantages, 1) they have an excellent system of impactful regulars coming up, and 2) enough money to buy pitching as offense isnt anywhere near as big a need and it would allow them to keep most of advantage #1, instead of clearing it out and hoping you're right about Crochet or whoever translating into a long term ace.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 10, 2024 8:29:36 GMT -5
The only realistic avenue for this to happen would be trade. I can’t see Henry green lighting a 6 year deal to Burnes. I can see the Sox signing multiple under the radar starters and looking at Lugo as an example of a guy who in the right environment could become a front line starter. Not saying Lugo is but he’s far exceeded expectations this year. Again we don’t know what Henry will or will not allow the Sox to spend. They were pretty frugal this year between FA and taking on money at the deadline. Will that be a continued trend? No clue. I would hope that even if they have a tighter budget next year that Bloom would be smart enough to use some of his assets to pry a guy like Crochet out of Chicago or maybe try to get Alcantra on the cheap out of Florida or take a chance on someone like Walker Buehler. This is on top of the whole Giolito is back and ready to go message. He can’t be the only “addition” Bloom?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 9, 2024 21:19:55 GMT -5
Waste of a strong start by Houck. Aggravatimg.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 9, 2024 21:05:49 GMT -5
I'm at the point where I'm concerned, even with the crappy starter Houstin is throwing out tomorrow, that the Sox might get swept and find themselves about 4 games out.
The pen has been brutal and he has given away about 5 games since the all star break.
It's not like the rotation has been stellar. Houck was really good tonight, but Crawford is a mess. Bello is still inconsistent. Pivetta is going thru some kind of dead arm and as good as Paxton was last time he hasn't really been that good this season.
Their pitching is killing them. And tonight their inability to hit with runners on hurt badly too, but the offense shouldn't have to score 10 runs a game to win.
The Sox, in my opinion, are better than KC and Minnesota who doesnt have Ryan the rest of the year. They should pass at least one of those teams but if Bailey and company cant figure out the pitching issues soon, they're screwed.
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