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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 9, 2024 20:59:31 GMT -5
It's really getting to the point it doesnt matter who Cora calls on in the pen - they all give it up.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 9, 2024 19:59:36 GMT -5
If the starter doesnt fail the bullpen does.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 9, 2024 11:18:28 GMT -5
I guess my point is is there precedent for guys signing pre-arb deals and then getting traded? Nobody comes to mind for me but I could be missing somebody. Are they not paying Rafaela more than they would have if they played the arb out? That takes away some of his surplus value which is what I’m getting at. They could still trade him he just theoretically has lower surplus. His extra value would be in ‘30 and ‘31 Bronson Arroyo comes quickly to mind.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 8, 2024 21:06:15 GMT -5
I’m not on Cora’s level when it comes to expectations for winning the division, but it is kinda amazing to be 3 games out of the loss column of Baltimore. (They and the Yankees have played like 3-4 extra games than us or thereabout) 7 left with the O's and 4 with Yanks. It may not be practicle to think division, but it is possible. Not if they keep pitching the way they've been pitching.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 8, 2024 17:09:35 GMT -5
I'm a big backer of Grissom and still believe he will hit, but at this point I think it's the right move to make.
He never really had a spring training. He was not healthy when he was playing and he looked quite rusty. Then he got injured again. Playing a week or two of rehab games and then forcing him onto the roster wasnt going to help anybody. Let him get a hundred plus ABs and build back up, get healthy, and prepare him for 2025 and hopefully he seizes the job because if he doesnt it's just a matter of time before Campbell might be forcing his way up and he is RH and can play 2b.
I just dont think anybody saw the real Grissom this year. The guy hit well everywhere in the minors. No reason a healthy Grissom cant do that in the majors too.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 8, 2024 11:39:58 GMT -5
People keep talking about moving Abreu for a 2/3 but that's going to require a really specific trade partner that's in "compete now" mode and also has an expendable 2/3 SP. A team like the White Sox doesn't benefit nearly as much from Abreu as they would a prospect that aligns more with their contention window. It would seem almost too good of a match to be true but I'd zero in on the Mariners if I was Breslow and preferred the trade route. Their offense stinks and their pitching is good. Removing guys with less than 40 games played for the Mariners Abreu would be their best hitter by wRC+ and their 2nd best everyday player by fWAR behind Cal Raleigh. Now maybe after dealing for Arozarena and an assumed bounce back for J-Rod they may not be that interested in Wilyer but if you added Wilyer to that OF that sure would be a really good OF. I could get behind that. I also keep in mind, though, that it's easier to pitch in Seattle and tougher to hit in Seattle, so there is that part effect, I guess it's harder for the batter to see there, so it helps a pitcher/hurts the batter, so I guess the transition from Seattle to Boston is sort of like an Oakland pitcher coming to Boston in a way, but yeah Gilbert or Kirby is an obvious target and I guess they come as close to the ace definition and consistency things I've mentioned. I guess I neglected to mention them and shouldn't have, but yeah, if Abreu and others were part of the conversation for Kirby or Logan, I'd be all over that, but I would think a bat is easier to pick up for Seattle and that they'd prefer to keep their pitching advantage, because without that, they're nothing.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 8, 2024 11:36:23 GMT -5
I keep coming back to these things.
1) Who is a starting pitcher that you'd be dying to trade for? The names I've heard are Crochet and Scrubal? I'm trying to think of a guy who is beginning a trajectory or even has a trajectory going where you can say, well if he keeps this up, this guy is going to pitch in a lot of all-star games or be a HOFer. Only Skenes really comes to mind. How many guys have consistently even pitched enough to be qualified for the ERA title and have consistently kept an ERA of 3.5 or lower? Not too many. Burnes certainly comes to mind quickly enough.
There's just not a lot of these guys available in a deal. So it's well they had a good season - lets project them forward as T.O.R starters, which is fine, but I'd hate to part with prospects the caliber of the Big 3.
The last time there was a starter like that, it was Chris Sale. The Sox paid with prospects, but boy, did they make the right decisions. Can you imagine if Devers had been the hard demand by the White Sox and that's what the Sox surrendered to get Sale? Apparently it was Benintendi or Moncada, and there was already concerns about Moncada's dieting and conditioning and maturity. And the other big piece was Kopech who people weren't sure was going to be a starter or just a reliever and also had some maturity concerns.
When they acquired Schilling, he was toward the end of his career and the Sox totally fleeced Arizona who strangely preferred to be fleeced by the Sox that deal with the Yankees. At that point, I think a number of us had soured on Casey Fossum, and I'm sure Brandon Lyon was no deterrent to making that deal, lol.
And when the Sox acquired Pedro, Pavano was a good pitching prospect who would go on to have a decent career. For one year of Pedro that's probably a deal not to make, but Duquette didn't make the deal intending for it to be that way - he was armed with a contract offer which I think was the biggest in the game at that time. And if it's a choice of Pedro for 7 years at big money or Pavano plus Armas Jr. pitching at low money, it was a no-brainer of a trade.
Those are higher caliber, more impactful pitchers, than what the Sox are seeking now. I just hope they don't pay as huge a price in talent than they have in the past. Even before those deals, for older fans, the Sox traded a veteran pitcher in Rick Wise on the downside of his career, a decent young pitcher whose ceiling was eh, and a prospect who had a Rudy Pemberton 1996 like September but wasn't that big a prospect in Ted Cox to reel in Dennis Eckersley who was available because of what was going on between him, Manning, and his wife. Mike Paxton had a decent 1977 season but he had nowhere near the upside of young 23 year old ace Eck.
Before that the Sox surrendered a backup utility guy in Juan Beniquez to headline a trade for a stud pitcher in Fergie Jenkins.
I'm sure you can say it's easy to look back and say, "Hey those guys didn't pan out, but they didn't know that at the time."
But it's clear they didn't trade the crown jewels. I know Moncada was very highly regarded but except for the 2019 season I had no times where I wished he was on the team. I'm wondering if we could truly say that about Anthony if it comes to that.
I guess when I think of those pitchers from then and their impact and what the starting pitchers are today and their impact - do they even make to 300 innings over 2 seasons before it TJS time? I mean you relievers turned starters like Ranger Suarez who suddenly turn into temporary aces that don't see to last very long. You certainly wouldn't trade Anthony for a reliever you hope turns into Suarez, would you? I wouldn't.
That's where I'm at. I hate seeing starting pitchers throw less and less innings and get more and more money, but I think that's the lesser of the two evils at this point, unless the Sox do an excellent job of figuring out whose value is artificially high and won't turn into what their ceiling points towards.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 8, 2024 8:45:44 GMT -5
The idea that the Red Sox should just be the highest bidders because 'the only one who loses is John Henry' is just not how it works. Opportunity cost is real and money is finite, even for professional sports franchises. Any money that goes to Burnes is money that can't go elsewhere. John Henry is not going to give $200+ million to Burnes and then just shrug and add another $30 million to the budget every year if Burnes' blows his arm out. If the Red Sox are directing $200 million toward something over the next 8 years, there are absolutely going to be paths the team cannot take because of that financial commitment. The Boston Red Sox, despite all their resources, do have constraints. I won't dispute nor do I think anyone else is really disputing this. The organization has a set budget and yes plunging $40M a year into a pitcher is going put a large dent into it. I still would rather pay the tag on Burnes than to take a hatchet to the farm system in a trade for a cheaper front of the line pitcher though. Yup. Having young cheap all star type caliber players allows a team to have the money to go get what they need and tou can never have to much pitching. It would be easier for me to swallow them spending big bucks on a pitcher who disappoints or more likely is a stones throwaway from TJS, as is the case with virtually all pitchers today than to give up a Roman Anthony, and watch him become a superstar elsewhere, and other valuable youngsters leave the organization while the pitcher they acquire is a 160 inning per year guy a stone's throw away from TJS. My thinking comes from this. As much as I like Abreu, I ultimately think Anthony will be better. I think he will he a cornerstone multiple all star player. Abreu is a good ballplayer but not an all star type, nor one that can play every day. Now that's certainly a debatable opinion I have and I can understand those who think Anthony wont be much better than Abreu if he is at all, but that's not where I'm coming from. Then I look at the value of starting pitching today. The days of guys consistently going 200 plus innings per day and extremely impacting the games they start and facing 800 - 1000 batters per year are gone. Even the so called aces dont go far and long. Almost everybody is lathered up over Crochet, a guy not even willing to pitch in the postseason if he isnt given big bucks first, and has had 20 good starts in his career, as if he were Pedro coming off a Cy Young season with an ERA under 2 or even Skubal who hasn't exactly been stellar until this point as investments as guys who may or may not hit their primes. Hey, I'd love to have them, but I wouldnt sacrifice Anthony plus to make that happen. I'd rather have Anthony in RF with Abreu dealt for a 2/3 starter down the road. Especially with starters having less and less impact on games, even these 170 inning aces. And I dont see the Sox investing in Duran's 30s any more than they invested in Ellsbury's 30s, and investing in Carl Crawford's 30s was a mistake they got rid of quickly enough, so by time Duran's time is up, Montgomery should be just about ready and the Sox ultimately end of with Anthony and Montgomery manning the corners with Rafaela in CF. So I keep hearing the Sox are a big market team willing to spend, even past the luxury tax 2 out of 3 years if necessary. Great. Plow that money into Burnes who is right in his prime and has been healthy and consistent or Fried who has a proven track record of being an ace, and a lefty the Sox lack (beyond the rental known as James Paxton). Use their so called financial advantage. Here is where I pause to acknowledge the fly on the ointment that it takes 2 to tango, but at this point I see no reason the Sox cant be top bidders. What else would they be using their big bucks for? Unless the next Manny, Pujols, or Cabrera is on the market, then use it on pitching. Now if the Sox threw a ton of money at Soto and get him, then yeah, Anthony becomes expendable and you can go that route to get pitching. I dont see the Sox getting Soto because they already slant way too LH, not that that's necessarily an elimination factor but I think he'll wind up staying in NY, whether it's the Yankees or the Mets and Cohen have the temerity to outbid their Steinbrenner pal.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 7, 2024 20:33:42 GMT -5
Crawford and Bernardino are two very cooked pitchers. Bernardino should have been the lefty that got sent down. Hes been awful.
Crawford has been horrendously bad. They dont seem to know how to turn him around.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 7, 2024 13:44:26 GMT -5
At some point the Sox will trade for a starter, but they need Abreu over the next year or two and I think they're working toward a scenario where eventually Anthony and Montgomery will both man the corners but that's a few years away. I would think Anthony gets to Boston first, a couple of years ahead of Montgomery. When that happens that's when I think Abreu gets dealt, and not before that.
I hope/dont think they will clear out Anthony and others for this supposed young ace with years of service left, etc, that will fit the criteria.
So I think if they make a trade it'll be for a 2/3 starter type down the road involving Abreu and others.
Until then I think they spend their money on Burnes or Fried. The Sox are very loaded around the diamond. Its pitching they need, so that's where the free agent money hopefully gets spent.
I dont think Pivetta is coming back. What you see is what you get with him, a streaky pitcher who can never put together a full season as a 1 or 2 that he can look like on many days. Theyll upgrade from him. Paxton will be gone, too.
They have Houck, Crawford, and Bello, plus a year of Gioloito plus hopefully Burnes or Fried.
Somebody will get hurt and we'll see Priester get his chance. Maybe Fitts, too.
Eventually there will be a need for another starter, with Giolito leaving as Sandlin could be working his way up, but with injuries and attrition I can then see a trade for a pitcher because the Sox would already have tied up a lot of money on Burnes or Fried, and a 2/3 type is what theyd need
I think a free agent ace and a couple of years later a trade for a younger pitcher with service time will make a lot of sense and could be the pitching blueprint down the road.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 7, 2024 12:14:46 GMT -5
I think the White Sox will finally win today and then they will resume their losing ways on Wednesday. I hope they dont do what the 03 Tigers did. They had the 62 Mets modern day record of 120 losses squarely in their sights. (Nobody is ever going to lose 134 games like the 1899 Cleveland Spiders did). The Tigers were 40-119 going into the last series of the year and swept it to blow the modern loss record and wound up 43-119. 3 years later, Dave Dombrowski had them in the World Series. The ChiSox better do this right. Lose at least 121 games. Let's see if they can win fewer than 40 games. Maybe their winning percentage can be lower than the already low league batting average, lol. Lower than .250. Yeesh. Yup. Streak over. Too bad
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 6, 2024 22:34:19 GMT -5
Huge win. Obviously they got the potential tie breaker. If they win they overtake KC. If they lose they're still only 1.5 games out with 50 games to go.
The play of the game was Smith somehow getting in safely at the plate and then the 2 run single by Yoshida.
Garcia almost gave the game away in the 8th. I didnt like having to see Hansen getting used for that extra out in the 8th and if Cora goes to that well once too often theyll get badly burned, but that said tonight was a good night to so it. They needed that game.
And that was the best Jansen has looked in weeks. His pitches has better finish to them, especially that last pitch to Witt.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 6, 2024 20:58:41 GMT -5
Badly need a clutch 2 out hit That works
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 6, 2024 20:57:39 GMT -5
Badly need a clutch 2 out hit
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 6, 2024 20:53:20 GMT -5
Wow, 2 miracles in the last 2 minutes. Somehow Smith was safe and now Rafaela actually drew a walk.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 6, 2024 20:52:08 GMT -5
Whoooo
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 6, 2024 20:50:11 GMT -5
Damn he was slow
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 6, 2024 20:48:09 GMT -5
They better not squander this opportunity
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 6, 2024 20:43:12 GMT -5
I think yall are overreacting about Bello, 6 of his last 8 starts have been fine to good Dude still has an ERA over 5. Hes been a disappointment.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 6, 2024 20:41:34 GMT -5
Bello is so damn frustrating. Cruising with 2 its and nobody on, he falls apart.
The Royals got clutch hits with 2 outs and the Sox havent thus far.
It's too bad being aggresive wirjed against them when Duran and Abreu tagged up as it took the bat out of Devers hands.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 6, 2024 11:39:05 GMT -5
I think the White Sox will finally win today and then they will resume their losing ways on Wednesday.
I hope they dont do what the 03 Tigers did. They had the 62 Mets modern day record of 120 losses squarely in their sights. (Nobody is ever going to lose 134 games like the 1899 Cleveland Spiders did).
The Tigers were 40-119 going into the last series of the year and swept it to blow the modern loss record and wound up 43-119. 3 years later, Dave Dombrowski had them in the World Series.
The ChiSox better do this right. Lose at least 121 games. Let's see if they can win fewer than 40 games. Maybe their winning percentage can be lower than the already low league batting average, lol.
Lower than .250. Yeesh.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 6, 2024 6:16:03 GMT -5
Kinda shocking no one won 500 games between Pinky Higgins and Francona m: that was a 40 year gap, when there were periods of very good teams. Also kind of shocking no one won five hundred games in the 35 years before Cronin, again when there were periods of good teams. Frankly it’s even shocking that Pinky Higgins, presiding over a chunk of the least successful period in franchise history, had that many wins. The Red Sox simply changed managers a lot. 3 - 4 years seemed to be a consistent shelf life, win or lose, so the list of Sox managers with 500 wins or more is low. A bigot like Higgins made the list because by then Yawkey was so far gone into his alcohol days at that point, that the GM chair changed more often and Higgins was the only constant at that point. It wasn't until Dick O'Connell finally assumed control as Yawkey was drying out, that Higgins was finally booted. With Cronin, he was Yawkey's guy from the get go. Only when he got kicked upstairs, like Higgins, did his managerial tenure end (in Higgins case he managed the Sox twice with the break being less than a year, sort of like Cora, lol). But everybody else didnt manage the Sox particularly long. Even in their glory days they cycled thru Jake Stahl who left after their best year, 1912, Bill Carrigan (Carrigan returned to manage the Sox years later, briefly, when they were awful), who like Stahl, found a business vocation he preferred, in his case banking, Jack Barry for a year before he wound up fighting in WW1, and Ed Barrow in 1918, who lasted another season and joined and hastened the mass exodus to the Yankees. All it seems to take is a disappointing season and the manager is in jeopardy, for the most part. Dick William's the hero in 67 gets into it with an unimpressed Yawkey, pops off after a perceived sleight. And is fired. Darrell Johnson gets them to the series in 75, loses control of the bottle, and is replaced by Zimmer. Zim has a gaudy winning pct but blows 2 pennant races and is pretty much mocked and reviled by everybody during his tenure until hes canned after 4 season. Houck has 4 full seasons and like his other teams, was never fired. He just simply retired. McNamara screws up the 86 Series. Mrs. Yawkey (rightfully) blames him and hes gone by midseason. Walpole Joe gives them 3.5 good years and the brass decides Butch Hobson is too good a managerial candidate to lose to another organization so they dump Morgan to promote Hobson. Morgan tells the brass the team isnt as good as they think it is...and hes proven right. Keven Kennedy leads the Sox to an unexpected division title in 95 and rankles Duquette to the point hes gone after 96. It takes Jim Williams longer to rankle Duquette but he does repeatedly and despite having surprising success Duquette finally dumps him for Joe Kerrigan in 2001 and the team responded by sinking like a stone. So in comes new ownership and Grady Little, the non analytical guy, and we know the reasons why he was fired. And we all know what followed. Managers in Boston have a short shelf life. Cora is the rare one that's highly regarded by ownership (and in my opinion that might be unpopular, rightfully so). Congrats on 500 AC.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 5, 2024 22:42:07 GMT -5
Big win tonight. Paxton and Yoshuda lead the way while Duran and Romy hit bombs.
While splitting or taking the next two games are ideal, even if they lost the final 2, it woukdnt be good, but a 3.5 game deficit isnt that tough to overcome.
What they couldn't afford was to get swept and theyve already avoided that scenario.
So far, so good.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 5, 2024 6:05:52 GMT -5
Both would likely accept. TON would accept but having a hard time seeing Pivetta saying yes. I think he could get 3 or 4 year deal for $15-18 million/season. I think neither TO or Pivetta would accept a QO. O'Neill could probably get a 3 year deal for around 45 - 50 million. He's on a pace for 30 something HRs again. Hes OPSing near .900. He'll get a deal better than a QO. It's too bad because the Sox could use his services for another season, as I think 2026 is more likely when Campbell could take over his role as RH power. I think TO would help the Sox more as a DH next season, but Breslow would have to find a way to deal Yoshida which woukdnt be easy. Ideally the DH would be RH to help balance the lineup. But I honestly dont see that scenario playing out because I'm pretty sure TO gets a better offer elsewhere. I have always had a feeling that hes the 21st century version of Nick Esasky for this fanbase, traded to Boston for a year, have an excellent 30 plus HR season and then depart as a free agent. If I'm wrong and he stayed for a year, that would be ideal for the Sox but hed probably be leaving 25 - 30 million on the table to do so. Probably a similar scenario to Pivetta. I'd rather see the Sox focus on coming away with Burnes this offseason, although theyd probably get a draft pick once Pivetta signs elsewhere after a QO offer.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 4, 2024 18:32:54 GMT -5
All those stats and they messed up the simplest one of them all. 27-87 is not 50 games under .500. It's 60 games under .500!
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