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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2024 21:11:49 GMT -5
O'Neill will hit 30 HRs. He might only wind up with 55 RBIs, but he'll smash 30
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2024 21:09:16 GMT -5
Or walk home instead
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2024 21:08:58 GMT -5
Maybe Duran can steal 3rd.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2024 21:07:03 GMT -5
Hope the Sox have a big offensive explosion in the top of the 10th. Duran is the runner at 2b.
Who pitches the bottom of the 10th?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2024 21:02:00 GMT -5
Might as well lose now rather than extra innings. This sucks. Thankful they played better than this the last time they were at Dodgers Stadium.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2024 20:57:50 GMT -5
I have a bad feeling about how this series will wind up.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2024 20:56:19 GMT -5
You've gotta be shitting me
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2024 17:55:37 GMT -5
I still like the idea of trading with the Blue Jays. Trades being Gauseman and Guerrero Jr or Turner and Gausman. I was looking at baseball Savant Gauseman uses a split finger and his four seamer is about 50 percent of the time . He has a slider I believe 8 percent and sinker rarely used. If he can cut down the four seamer to 30 percent and increase usage of sinker slider. He could have better results if he buys in .it would also make his really good splitter look lay up better. He eats innings and could be your 2 in a playoff series . Houck, Gausman, Crawford, with Pivetta looks pretty good for the post season. He’s not a rental either 2025 contract. What do you think it will cost prospect wise? Remember both Turner and Guerrero Jr are rentals. Vladdy Jr is not a rental. He's under contract thru 2025.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2024 17:49:31 GMT -5
For those saying that Jansen should have gone 2 innings last night I totally disagree. He went 2 innings because Cora hadnt worked in awhile AND Cora knew Jansen would follow those 2 innings with 4 days off. The second part of that sentence is key. For all we know the Sox could be up 4-3 tonight and in need of Jansen's services but if he goes 2 the night before you're probably not seeing him for a day or even 2. Jansen is not accustomed to throwing 2 innings. And when he did last Sunday, he nearly blew the game. He dominated the 8th inning and had to be bailed out by the Raffy to Raffy play. Had that not happened he probably would have blown the game. I think 4 outs at this point is to the max extent to which you'd want to push Jansen to. If you think you have to pitch Jansen two innings to close out a 1 run game or even a 2 run game, that screams that you dont trust the setup relievers. That's the real problem. The uncertainty with Martin and to a little lesser extent Slaten (I know Slaten has nicer peripherals, etc, but Martin is an unflappable trustworthy seasoned vet, and they're most feeling his loss in my opinion, although Slaten is certainly a big loss, too) I dont trust Kelly's control enough for him to be the primary setup guy. If Martin's not coming back, they probably need to add a high leverage setup man. It would be awesome if Liam Hendrik could step into that role, but who knows? That's the issue. They need a slugging 1b. They need a veteran setup guy who can handle pressure situations and a RH power hitter who in a perfect world could be a good defensive SS and the could also use a RH 2b who could be good enough to relegate Hamilton to the bench. In a perfect world the cost to acquire these guys is nothing. It would be great if Casas could come back healthy, if Story could make it back toward the end of the season, if Liam Hendrik could run with the 8th inning role, and if Grissom could at worst platoon at 2b and best case scenario, hit like he did in the minors and seize the 2b job. Cant count on any of these. So they need to grab a RH power bat, one that preferably can play 1b and relegate Smith to a backup role. They obviously need a starter with Giolito not coming back. They might need a high leverage setup man that Cora can turn the 8th inning over to and save the mixing and matching for the 6th and 7th innings. And a RH SS would be nice but I'd place that much further down the list. At this point a defensive off the bench SS would be nice. Maybe ge would have been there yesterday, Rafaela would have been in CF, displacing Duran to LF and with his speed maybe he catches Ohtani's ball down the line that O'Neill couldn't reach? Speed in LF away from Fenway is not a bad thing. I suppose it comes down to your version of a closer. Do you put him in for the toughest matchups to preserve a lead or just to close out with a save situation? I'm for the latter. Say Kenley gets thru the 8th and the meltdown was in the bottom of the 9th. That's even more deflating. The Sox still had 3 outs to work with in the top of the 9th. Give up the go-ahead run in the bottom of the 9th there's no chance to come back. I think the high leverage thing is overblown from the standpoint that you really dont know what the most dangerous situation in a game is until after the game has been completed. One can think that the bases loaded in the 7th inning is the key out of the game, but then an inning later an even more dire situation can occur. Hell, ultimately the biggest out of the game could occur in the 6th. Going to put a closer in for that? I know I'm on the unpopular side of this issue but that's how I feel about it. If they could have gotten the 2nd out I would have been fine stretching Kenley for a 4 out save, but mostly Kenley is a 3 out kind of guy and there's very few else I'd trust to close out a 1 run lead on the road where if 2 runs are given up it's a loss with no chance for a comeback.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2024 15:22:40 GMT -5
There could be candidates we're not even considering. If Anthony Rizzo hadnt gotten hurt, would we have heard of Ben Rice? There could be somebody who is blocked in AAA that could help.
I'd still go with Turner if there isnt a better option. I like his bat and they could always defend with Smitj later in the games. Casas might not be coming back. They need a RH bat and to strengthen the 1b position. I get that Turner isnt ideal defensively but doing nothing isnt really an option, so whether its Canha, whose bat I dont really trust, Turner or somebody else they need to look.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2024 11:40:22 GMT -5
Would agree with this. If Casas and Grissom were both healthy you probably don’t really need a position player move with Dom Smith -> Casas and Westbrook -> Grissom (unless you really want to upgrade on Romy Gonzalez). The issue is I just don’t think you can bank on them right now. Casas is “far off” from a rehab assignment and Grissom while about to start his has been injured with lower body injuries over and over since the winter, and hasn’t played well when healthy. If the cost of a Justin Turner or Mark Cahna or what not is basically minimal… why not just do it I think because they don’t want to acquire Justin Turner to DFA him in three weeks when they want to call Grissom up. They could DFA Smith instead but I don’t know that they’d want to rely on Turner as the primary 1B Canha is more interesting to me but still has some of the same challenges Frankly I think Grissom needs about 100 ABs or so in Worcester. Is he even playing yet? This has been his issue all season. He's been injured and rushed into playing with no real spring training. I think he needs a good twenty to twenty five games down in AAA to get his feet under him. They can figure out the roster logistics. They need a RH bat that can handle left handed pitching. The need, whether it's Turner or somebody else, is glaringly obvious, particularly one that can handle 1b. Canha is interesting but can he play 1b? Ideally it would be somebody who can hit enough who can relegate Smith to being a bench player.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2024 9:28:08 GMT -5
They obviously need a starter with Giolito not coming back. Crawford, Houck and Pivetta are solid 1,2,3. Bello is your four or five. Yes they could use a four or five since Bello has not been up to snuff, but everyone could use a fifth starter. I don’t see that as an extreme urgency.you could say the same thing about every team every year. How much are willing to give up for someone bumping Criswell from the rotation? How much better is that guy than Criswell? I don’t see Scherzer happening. Pitching really hasn’t been the issue. Four runs against the Dodgers is not bad. I go by, would I trust this guy to start a playoff game? I trust Houck, Crawford, and Pivetta at this point. I dont really trust Bello, and I think when all is said and done Criswell will wind up with an ERA around 5. All it takes is one injury or a pitcher hitting an innings wall, then where does that leave you? You cant have too much pitching. I think there's pitching out there to be had, but while a front line would be nice, a solid 3 or 4th starter would be useful. As long as they dont touch the top 4, and now I'm thinking Arias needs to be the one really young guy they hang on to.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2024 9:23:11 GMT -5
Justin Turner has a 99 wRC+, -0.1 fWAR, and is 39 years old. I suspect he'll wind up with a wRC+ around 105 - 110 when all is said and done. Either way it's likely higher than what Dom Smith will wind up at. Turner's name is mentioned because he played well here, is a RH bat and lonely cheap to acquire. He's an obvious candidate but I doubt the only one. 1b is an obvious area they can upgrade. At this point average would be a nice upgrade. There's no real timetable for Casas' return. At this point I cant see him back prior to September and if he has sone sort of setback we might not see him at all. The Sox might have to proceed like he wont be back.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2024 8:11:25 GMT -5
For those saying that Jansen should have gone 2 innings last night I totally disagree.
He went 2 innings because Cora hadnt worked in awhile AND Cora knew Jansen would follow those 2 innings with 4 days off.
The second part of that sentence is key. For all we know the Sox could be up 4-3 tonight and in need of Jansen's services but if he goes 2 the night before you're probably not seeing him for a day or even 2.
Jansen is not accustomed to throwing 2 innings.
And when he did last Sunday, he nearly blew the game. He dominated the 8th inning and had to be bailed out by the Raffy to Raffy play. Had that not happened he probably would have blown the game.
I think 4 outs at this point is to the max extent to which you'd want to push Jansen to.
If you think you have to pitch Jansen two innings to close out a 1 run game or even a 2 run game, that screams that you dont trust the setup relievers.
That's the real problem. The uncertainty with Martin and to a little lesser extent Slaten (I know Slaten has nicer peripherals, etc, but Martin is an unflappable trustworthy seasoned vet, and they're most feeling his loss in my opinion, although Slaten is certainly a big loss, too)
I dont trust Kelly's control enough for him to be the primary setup guy.
If Martin's not coming back, they probably need to add a high leverage setup man. It would be awesome if Liam Hendrik could step into that role, but who knows?
That's the issue. They need a slugging 1b. They need a veteran setup guy who can handle pressure situations and a RH power hitter who in a perfect world could be a good defensive SS and the could also use a RH 2b who could be good enough to relegate Hamilton to the bench.
In a perfect world the cost to acquire these guys is nothing.
It would be great if Casas could come back healthy, if Story could make it back toward the end of the season, if Liam Hendrik could run with the 8th inning role, and if Grissom could at worst platoon at 2b and best case scenario, hit like he did in the minors and seize the 2b job.
Cant count on any of these. So they need to grab a RH power bat, one that preferably can play 1b and relegate Smith to a backup role.
They obviously need a starter with Giolito not coming back.
They might need a high leverage setup man that Cora can turn the 8th inning over to and save the mixing and matching for the 6th and 7th innings.
And a RH SS would be nice but I'd place that much further down the list. At this point a defensive off the bench SS would be nice. Maybe ge would have been there yesterday, Rafaela would have been in CF, displacing Duran to LF and with his speed maybe he catches Ohtani's ball down the line that O'Neill couldn't reach? Speed in LF away from Fenway is not a bad thing.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 19, 2024 23:37:01 GMT -5
Too bad there isnt a 2023 version Chris Martin. Then Cora wouldn't have to try to mix and match in the 8th inning.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 19, 2024 23:34:35 GMT -5
And that would be the game
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 19, 2024 20:27:53 GMT -5
Jeez, somebody at NESN is happy Betts got his hand fractured. They showed 6 freaking replays in a span of 30 seconds of Betts getting nailed on the hand. What is up with that? I got the point the first couple of times.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 19, 2024 20:21:34 GMT -5
Ok so, this a theoretical list of who I think would be available and makes practical sense as far as value and need if the Rangers and DBacks fall out of contention in a week (also cause I’m immensely bored without baseball games right now): RH 1B & OF: Mark Canha, Tigers 1B/COF Luis Robert Jr., White Sox, OF Adolis Garcia, Rangers, OF Christian Walker, Diamondbacks, 1B SP: Zach Eflin, Rays Eric Fedde, White Sox Jameson Taillon, Cubs Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers Michael Lorenzen, Rangers Reid Detmers, Angels Who’s on the trading block (more like who I’m ok with trading in particular scenarios): HEADLINERS: Wilyer Abreu Nick Yorke Khristian Campbell Yep, let's get rid of that Campbell bum: Campbell was drafted in the fourth round last year out of Georgia Tech, Campbell advanced quickly to Double-A this season, where he had a .407 average and .507 on-base percentage at midseason. Overall, he hit .351/.458/.589 with 12 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 72 games. This is the time of year that I give thanks that we have a GM with a 140+ IQ instead of keyboard jockeys. Yes, let's trade him, his value will never be higher....unless he becomes a major league all star caliber player, lol
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 19, 2024 19:12:06 GMT -5
The only one I can think of is Kelly but as noted, they clearly were just placating him until he realized his future was on the mound (in their eyes). The way his development plan was set up sure seemed designed to make him see that - he spent the first half of the year pitching, blew thru Low-A and got to High-A. Then they said OK, now go to the complex and have a second spring training and play in the GCL, then sent him to Low-A and the AFL, where he got his clock cleaned. Unsurprisingly, he focused on pitching after that. Here, my guess is they'll let him do both at once. The six-man rotation should make that easy enough. But he'll probably pick one within a couple years. While it wasnt simultaneous, Ron Mahay came up to the Sox as a LH outfielder in 1995. He later came back to the Red Sox a few years later, if not sooner, as a LH relief pitcher and actually had a decent career being a LOOGY Fans of a certain age might recall that after Tony C was beaned he seriously considered coming back as a pitcher, but it never happened.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 19, 2024 11:38:29 GMT -5
Just will note that people have expressed big fears around Crochet's health, but Skubal also has not ever pitched over 150 innings in a season. He too would be in uncharted territory by the time the playoffs roll around. Better track record than Crochet no doubt, but he hasn't exactly been a workhorse either. Almost no starters are workhorse enough for me to want to part with the top 4 guys (excluding Montgomery who's not official yet). Starters are important but a guy who gives 140 - 170 innings just isnt as valuable as 200 plus inning guys who simply dont exist anymore. The bullpens impact the game much more now and I certainly would touch the top 4 for any reliever either. Fortunately I think the Sox are in a situation that they have a lot of good tier 2 talent beyond the top 4 and can package 2 or 3 together to get a good pitcher, or at least a sizeable upgrade for the rotation. A Justin Turner like bat shouldn't even cost a second tier talent and perhaps another righty reliever if Martin or Slaten are big question marks, shouldn't be that much either. I think they can truly accomplish what they need to do without putting a big dent in the system and without losing their premier prospects. I see no reason why all of Mayer, Anthony, Teel, and Campbell shouldnt be up at contributing at some point toward the end of next season.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 18, 2024 19:38:41 GMT -5
I just don't see the need to trade from the top 4. I want to see what becomes of Campbell. Much prefer to see that happen with the Red Sox, because I think he could be a damn good player, potentially better than most of the right handed bats out there the Sox would be looking to acquire. I believe Mayer is going to be SS for the second half of the decade and be above average/all-star caliber. Likewise for Teel.
I believe Anthony and Montgomery both have star written all over them.
There's really nobody out there that makes me want to give those guys up. Any other guys in the farm I'd be open to moving in the right deal.
The Sox are on the right path and eventually they'll have to trade to make themselves better but they need to keep their top tier prospects which includes Campbell in my opinion as he has gotten my attention this year. The irony was I was pissed that they didn't trade Xander and screwed themselves out of a 2nd round compensation pick and had to settle for just a 4th rounder compensation pick and it winds up being this guy who is tearing through the minor leagues and offers defensive versatility and a big right handed bat that they truly need in the near future.
Plus this team has plenty of players that can entice other teams. Sure you won't get the next Pedro or Trout in a trade unless you trade from the top, but those guys really aren't out there and for the way they're set up, thin out the surplus a bit and get the incremental necessary upgrades that are needed. That they can do without harming their farm system or their future. They're in a good position. They can help themselves without being desperate.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 18, 2024 11:34:13 GMT -5
I'm not saying that Mayer or really anyone should be off the table in trade talks, they should at least hear any and all offers. If you can get Skubal for Mayer, you have to consider it. However for a RP, no way I don't care how good said RP is. The good news is we have no reason to believe Mayer's star has dimmed at all this season in the Red Sox eyes and thus I see no reason to believe Breslow would entertain such a deal. Agree. Mason is awesome but there's no way I'm hell I'd trade Mayer in a deal for him. The Red Sox' current closer is doing just fine. And next year they have another experienced effective closer who should be completely healthy taking over. And if Hendrok cant hack it theyll find a viable closer. What they havent had is stability since Xander left. They need Mayer. I dont see the Sox as that deep at SS in the system. They have Rafaela who ideally would be in CF and likely will be next season. They have Story whose health can be relied upon. We'll see how his shoulder looks next season. Hamilton can play SS but he's really more of a 2b. In the minors Arias is quite promising but a long way away. Am I missing anybody of note? SS is a key position and I'd expect Mayer to anchor the SS position most of the back half of this decade at least. I anticipate he'll be an above average regular with an all star season or two and with his personality probably a big part of the clubhouse culture ss he, Anthony, and Teel graduate. I dont trade that for a 1 inning closer who could need TJS at any moment and throwing 103 that wouldn't surprise me.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 18, 2024 6:26:31 GMT -5
I mostly give felger a pass in regards to baseball talk. He clearly doesn't care about baseball and never has. His sidekick mazz on the other hand.. Agreed. Mazz should be better than he is. Again I dont mind critical if its genuine and warranted, but in his case he's just miserable and it comes through. He was even bitching about the series being dull or whatever it was after the Sox won the freaking 2018 World Series. I mean, c'mon, really??!!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 18, 2024 6:23:13 GMT -5
I don't think everyone is taking into account the roster crunch that is likely to happen in the near future. Just counting the players on the current roster plus the top 20 prospects who probably start 2025 in the AAA lineup you have: C - Wong, Teel 1B - Casas, Jordan 2B - Grissom, Hamilton, Yorke 3B - Devers, Meidroth SS - Story, Meyer LF - Duran, Lugo, Campbell CF - Rafaela RF - Abreu, Anthony DH - Yoshida Bench Catcher - McGuire Bench OF - Refsnyder Bench Middle IF - Gonzalez Bench Corner IF - tbd Some of the roster crunch will sort itself out in various ways, but of the 18 players listed in the starting spots above all of them are contracted to be around through at least 2027. Of that 18, only Story and Yoshida won't be around in 2028. You absolutely have to trade some of these guys eventually, so making a trade at the deadline this year for a pitcher shouldn't present any practical problem. I think everyone does account for the roster crunch including all those in the FO. But this is a next season problem at the earliest and frankly names like Yorke, Meidroth and Lugo will likely be moved in the near future anyways. No need to purge the farm of all the top names for the sake of getting say Crochet at this year’s deadline. EDIT: I think also the minor league depth chart for this season needs consideration too. Who’s gonna take Meidroth’s spot if he’s moved? Ok Mayer steps in, but then who takes Mayer’s spot? Then who’s taking the spot of Mayer’s replacement in Greenville? All of these moves have trickle down consequences on team and individual performance development if you trade too much depth mid season. This is why it’s better to move most pieces in the offseason so you can better find available replacements for them. It'll work itself out. They have to sort out their talent, figure out who they want to keep and trade from the surplus. They have 5 guys vying for 2b. My guess is Hamilton winds up platooning with Grissom this season before settling into a middle infield utility role asxGrissom shows usxwho he is in 25. That leaves Valdez, Campbell and Yorke as trade bait. Valdez has a little bit of value but not exactly a ton. Yorke is prime trade bait in my opinion, or I dont think Bresloe would have dealt Yorke. Campbell could very well get moved although I hope they dont. I think whether he plays 2b or moves around he could be a RH bat that eventually takes the role O'Neill has and could wind up moving around defensively and it would drop others guys into a DH rotation. I think that one of Meidroth or Lugo stays as a reserve down the road and the other gets dealt, although both could go, as theyd be attractive to other teams. The Sox have attractive 6 - 20 ranked pieces in their system that I think they could help themselves without touching their top 5 (which is the big 3, Campbell and soon Montgomery in my opinion) I dont think the moves they make need to be huge, but just large enough to help. I don't see them getting that young ace everybody talks about, nor do I think the cost would be worth it unless it were coming from the inventory I talked about but it wouldn't. That would require trading from the top 5 which I personally wouldn't do. That said there's plenty of guys in this roster crunch you can use as chips to improve the team and still keep to help the club in the future.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 18, 2024 6:08:48 GMT -5
Felger showing his ass yet again wrt to his lack of knowledge of baseball. Swap out Felger out for a golden retriever and the amount of baseball knowledge on that show would rise 2fold How this guy has a job is absolutely mind blowing Yup. Felger is not exactly one of the more intellectual deep thinking kind of guys. He's not even a sportswriter is he? He's just sone uneducated blowhard on TV. I dont mind writers or guys in that job being critical when warranted but nothing about him feels genuine.
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