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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 19, 2024 22:09:25 GMT -5
So damn predictable. This bullpen has literally killed them. They could still go to the postseason, but they wont and they dont deserve to.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 19, 2024 21:55:32 GMT -5
I was just thinking the Red Sox could use an extra inning game. They might not get there
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 19, 2024 21:54:45 GMT -5
There are a lot of things hurting the Red Sox like mediocre starting pitching, not so good situational hitting, and poor defense. But the bullpen has literally killed this team. Is there a close game the bullpen cant blow? I mostly trust Jansen and Martin and they're likely leaving. Whoo. Yep I have retooling the bullpen as just as big of a need as adding a legit SP. If Jansen and Martin leave then they'll be going into next season with, let me check my notes oh yea 0 reliable RPs on the roster. Theyll be praying healthwise for Hendriks, Fullmer, and Whitlock, and they'll need Slaten.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 19, 2024 21:48:34 GMT -5
There are a lot of things hurting the Red Sox like mediocre starting pitching, not so good situational hitting, and poor defense.
But the bullpen has literally killed this team.
Is there a close game the bullpen cant blow?
I mostly trust Jansen and Martin and they're likely leaving. Whoo.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 19, 2024 20:57:27 GMT -5
This version of Yoshida IS worth 18 million per year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 19, 2024 19:21:37 GMT -5
If Bregman was healthy that’s end of the inning Yup. And Kikuchi isnt real good, either.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 19, 2024 19:20:49 GMT -5
If they are going to win a game against Houston this would be the one.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 18, 2024 19:42:49 GMT -5
The Sox, to survive, need to take 1 out of 3 against Houston and then 2 of 3 against Arizona. Finding a way to piss away their chances to win this game was costly. So if they manage 5-5 on this road trip, they'll probably find themselves 5 games out of the wild card spot. They'll need to have a big run in them, where they go 15-5 over a few weeks while KC plays .500 or less in that same span. I feel like the Red Sox still have a big run left in them. I think this team will manage to avoid being bad enough to wind up 78-84, but at this rate 85-77 won't cut it. I know the pitching has been horrendous, but it's the bullpen that killed them, giving away games against LA, NY, Colorado, Houston, and Texas. Those will be the games that ultimately sank them if they miss the playoffs. I know you can't save them all, but those were egregious. I know those who said to sell with them just 1 game out at the deadline will take their I told you so's victory laps, and I get it, but when you're just a game out, you need to go after a playoff spot. You can't punt every time you're not 10 games ahead. The Red Sox have had their chances to succeed. They have killed themselves with awful relief pitching and untimely hitting. As great as the offense has been, they haven't really maximized it. The Sox are going to have to build a team this offseason that projects as a serious contender rather than a fringe contender trying to be the 5th or 6th best team in the league, or else they're always going to leave it to chance. Well, the Royals are on pace to go 21-17, we are on pace to go 20-19. That'd get them to 90 wins and us exactly to 85. We can't afford series losses right now. Even if they falter some with their schedule being tough, there's not much margin for error. I think we need two of three against Houston at minimum, and pretty much need to win every series or tie from here on out. The Sox were on a pace to win 91 games until they suddenly weren't. Paces don't mean as much as getting the job done. At some point I expected the Royals to slip, and they really haven't - at worst they treaded water, but they haven't really hit a big rough patch. All it takes is for them to finally hit one while the Sox have a hot stretch and then suddenly pace doesn't mean much. Of course this requires the Sox not to shoot themselves in the foot with bad pitching, blown leads, bad situational hitting, or poor defense long enough to get hot and it requires KC to finally act like the Royals we've known for years. I thought the Royals were a mid 70s win team when the season started, but they certainly haven't played that way for any long stretch. I feel like they're overdue for a struggle, but at this point we can't count on it. Doesn't mean it can't happen and coincide with a Red Sox revival. Just not feeling particularly great about the Sox right now. Hoping they can manage 5-5, stay within 5 games, and then finally play well again, but I just don't trust the pitching at this point, particularly the pen. Hoping between Kenley, Martin, and Hendriks the Sox can lock down wins in September and hopefully Slaten is back pitching well, too.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 18, 2024 19:31:26 GMT -5
Hmmm. Is Grissom getting recalled? Is Marcelo more injured than we know? Very happy for Mr. Helium but this one is curious. On one hand, you could be right - I hope not - I hope Marcelo is alright. I don't think they want to recall Grissom to be the short half of a platoon. I'm not sure they're ready to bench Hamilton against righties, unless the plan is to play him at SS with Rafaela in CF and O'Neill sitting against righties - I don't think they go that route? It's possible it could be that he's hitting .362 with pop and there's not much left there to challenge him. As an aside, I came across an old baseball card of LaVel Freeman. I mention him because I have to laugh at how things can change. Can you imagine a player in today's game, defensively challenged or otherwise, hitting .322 with an .877 OPS in AA at age 23 over a full season and then having to repeat the level and staying there all year two collect 208 hits in 626 ABs for a batting average of .395 and an OPS of 1.094 with 26 HRs and 70 BB - without getting promoted?! Granted, he was a DH with limited power playing in a hitter's league in a hitter's ballpark (El Paso in the Texas League in a hitters' year in 1987). And when he was promoted the following year he fell off to .318 with 5 HRs and a mid .800 OPS. I think he must have gotten injured after that - he got 3 hitless ABs in the majors with Milwaukee, was traded to Detroit and played in AAA Toledo, hit .214 there in AAA and was done at age 27. I assume he was injured and he never really recovered. But I bring him up because can you imagine following a guy in today's age having the season he had at age 24, flirting with .400 for the full season displaying power and walks, and not even getting a call up to AAA?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 18, 2024 18:03:37 GMT -5
very curious. Could this portend a cup o coffee for the stretch run? Too soon.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 18, 2024 18:01:36 GMT -5
Don't shoot me for this but Campbell's rise kind of has some mookie in it. Just rakes all the way up. It's really impressive what he's been doing and he's not done yet. Better make him an offer of better than 300 million over 10 years, then, lol. I can see a bit of the parallel, but Mookie was great at everything, a gold glover no matter where he goes and an excellent baserunner with speed as well. I don't know if Campbell has that or if he's capable of batting .346 in the majors, so I would hold off on the Mookie comparisons because Mookie was such a once in a lifetime type player. But I'm happy Campbell has been promoted and hope the Sox hang on to him (along with the big 3). While not expecting Mookie, I'm hoping for a guy who can hit .280 plus with at least 15 - 20 HR power who can play multiple positions. I think he can might be better than that, but even if he isn't, he looks like a good player. I wonder if he can be truly great? Put it like this - I won't bet against it. I'm really excited to see what he can do. The Sox need a really good RH bat among all the lefties they have. I like to think at some point he can replace O'Neill as the main RH bat, but I wouldn't mind O'Neill coming back for one more season but even with a QO, I don't think that will happen. He might be a main RH bat candidate by 2026 or even mid 2025 but they'll need that bat until he's ready. I'm guessing we'll see Campbell by July 1 next year if not sooner. Worcester is a great place to hit, so I don't foresee his numbers taking too big a dip over the rest of this year/next season. It's just how long will it take him to acclimate to the majors?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 18, 2024 16:22:44 GMT -5
Searched the deep web to find a video showing some aggressive swings from him - www.instagram.com/soxprospects/reel/C-ZDCJVunkX/He loads up on every pitch and that 3rd pitch swing looks really really ugly, but you know else swings out of his shoes and looks really really ugly when he is occasionally fooled? Rafael Devers. It's certainly unorthodox (I think someone here said it's not the most violent swing they've ever seen, but he has the most violent takes, almost like it's a last second check swing every time), and it takes an athlete with elite balance, pitch recognition, and hand eye coordination to pull it off without striking out or making weak contact a lot... but we've seen guys do that in MLB history. Hunter Pence had one of the most unique but also ugliest swings ever, Vlad Guerrero was the best bad ball hitter I've ever seen, even someone like Cedanne Rafaela who genuinely has a pretty bad approach but makes up for it enough with elite hand eye coordination (and elite skills elsewhere) was being thrown under the bus here by some when his BABIP sucked and he was adjusting to MLB pitching, but his minor league stats held true. If Campbell was showing elite stats, or exit velocities, or a high walk rate, or a low K rate I'd be more skeptical of the swing. But if he's doing all of them at once? I couldn't be more excited to see where he goes as a prospect. (Please please have it be in Boston! ) I remember Todd Benzinger having a pretty textbook swing (I think Ted Williams liked it). Of course most people under the age of 50 have no idea who he was, but that's kind of the point. Pretty swing. Meh results. But he'll always have that game winning HR during the Morgan Magic streak in 1988, and he did catch the last out of the 1990 World Series as a Reds 1b (hit by former Red Sox 3b Carney Lansford). I get the swing concerns, but it's what you do with the swing rather than how it looks that really matters.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 18, 2024 16:18:02 GMT -5
...but can he hit with risp? Well, if he can pitch (get outs) with RISP, then that would help. There's a lot of relievers on the team that can't, lol.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 18, 2024 16:16:43 GMT -5
The Sox, to survive, need to take 1 out of 3 against Houston and then 2 of 3 against Arizona. Finding a way to piss away their chances to win this game was costly.
So if they manage 5-5 on this road trip, they'll probably find themselves 5 games out of the wild card spot.
They'll need to have a big run in them, where they go 15-5 over a few weeks while KC plays .500 or less in that same span.
I feel like the Red Sox still have a big run left in them. I think this team will manage to avoid being bad enough to wind up 78-84, but at this rate 85-77 won't cut it.
I know the pitching has been horrendous, but it's the bullpen that killed them, giving away games against LA, NY, Colorado, Houston, and Texas. Those will be the games that ultimately sank them if they miss the playoffs. I know you can't save them all, but those were egregious.
I know those who said to sell with them just 1 game out at the deadline will take their I told you so's victory laps, and I get it, but when you're just a game out, you need to go after a playoff spot. You can't punt every time you're not 10 games ahead. The Red Sox have had their chances to succeed. They have killed themselves with awful relief pitching and untimely hitting. As great as the offense has been, they haven't really maximized it.
The Sox are going to have to build a team this offseason that projects as a serious contender rather than a fringe contender trying to be the 5th or 6th best team in the league, or else they're always going to leave it to chance.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 18, 2024 14:21:21 GMT -5
Anyone have anything left to say? Yup, time to stop watching.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 18, 2024 9:56:56 GMT -5
I sort of find it hard to believe that the Red Sox would hire Craig Breslow with the specific task of creating a pitcher dev system and then turn around and hand out a 9 figure deal to a pitcher over 30. Those 2 things don't mesh to me. I could definitely see them going after Walker Buehler this offseason, but as far as a big impact arm the only thing that makes sense to me is a trade. I dont think one precludes the other. It takes time to develop a pitching organization. What do they do while waiting? 2nd/3rd tier options and dumpster diving and always be short front line pitching while waiting? Dump needed blue chip positional prospects? I dont think it makes sense to cut off all avenues, especially one that allows the team to hang on to their top prospects.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 18, 2024 9:53:00 GMT -5
If the budget is going to be tight in 2025, then yeah paying through the nose for Kenley and other established relievers might not be ideal. But if the team is allowed to spend money again, I don’t see why something like 1 year/15 mil or whatever for Kenley is that big of an issue if they expect him to keep performing. Given how well the “Hall of Fame Closers Who Only Throw Cutters” cohort has tended to age, that seems like a perfectly fine guess He might prefer that 1 year offer if it's coming from the Dodgers. I think it would take 2 years to keep him for sure, although I can see a year and an option as a possibility, but with just 1 year, he'd probably be up for grabs with multiple teams having the need and being able to make a short term commitment. My feeling is that they're not going to try to bring him back.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 18, 2024 9:14:08 GMT -5
Burnes is probably going to get 7/8 years 280M or there abouts. There's almost 0 chance that he signs some sort of high AAV deal for 2/3 years. Agree on back half. Who do you think would pay 280 for him? I am not saying impossible, but I cannot think of a fit for team with spending capacity to do it. The Giants? The Orioles have new ownership with money to spend. The Mets have the money. The Dodgers always find a way. The Giants could. The Red Sox could. The Astros could surprise or even the Rangers. The Padres find ways to acquire big ticket items. And yeah, the team that's always tapped out, the Yankees, always seem to find money to spend. While doubtful I'd even put the Cardinals, Cubs, or even the Diamondbacks on the list. Corbin Burnes will have suitors and I think 1 or 2 of those teams will offer to drop 275 - 300 million to get him.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 18, 2024 9:08:18 GMT -5
Burnes is probably going to get 7/8 years 280M or there abouts. There's almost 0 chance that he signs some sort of high AAV deal for 2/3 years. Agreed, what is worrisome is that Boras plays this damn stall game that even if it doesnt go into March or April it would likely be late Jan or the first half of Feb just before spring training so that if they dont pounce on one of their fallback positions first, like bringing back Eovaldi (I would think he would be amenable to coming back) or Fried, they then risk getting nobody of significance and then not even winding up with Burnes if one of Jon Heyman's mystery teams sweeps in to sign him. I think they almost have to make him a big offer if they want him rather than waiting out Boras hoping the price falls, an exploding offer, in a way, although knowing Boras he would turn it down and shoo it through his mouthpiece Heyman, but at least the Sox would put their best foot forward. They definitely need to upgrade and Pivetta's spot is the most obvious area as Pivetta is what he is, a decent innings eater, who will never have the consistency of a front line starter. Personally, I'd love to see the 2025 rotation feature 2 of Burnes, Fried, or Eovaldi, assuming Roki Sasaki is not being posted), but the presence of Gioloito complicates things. I was hoping 2024 would be one and done so they can upgrade on both his and Pivetta's spot in the rotation. Instead, with this injury, they're bound to Giolito for 2025 and have to hope that being healthy equals being effective, so all they can do is upgrade from the consistently inconsistent Pivetta and hope Houck, Crawford, and Bello continue to take strides forward.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 18, 2024 8:49:45 GMT -5
I can see Martin happening but seeing Hendriks has a two year deal and can show he’s effective, I don’t think Jansen will be offered a deal. I'm not penciling hendriks as being effective and even if he is he'll get just a few million. Hardly enough to say they can't bring back Jansen if they want to. What concerns me that if the Sox were able to bring back Kenley and Martin, it would cost them about 25 million and they'd still have bullpen questions. I mean outside of Jansen and Martin and hoping Hendriks is his old self the way Kirby Yates went back to being his old self, my list of trusted relievers probably begins and ends with Slaten, and seeing how a bunch of relievers (Kelly, Weissert, Bernardino and to an extent Booser spring to mind) performing reasonably well coming into July went belly up, who knows if Slaten would have remained effective if he had stayed healthy? So they can pay a lot of money to bring back old proven relievers, who have been the most trustworthy the past 2 seasons, and still find themselves with a lot of question marks or they can hope Hendriks and Fullmer come all the way back from injury and continue to throw spaghetti against the wall and hope it sticks approach that most teams employ and hope for the best. And let's face it, that's why bullpens are so volatile and nothing can elevate or sink a team in the way a bullpen can. My guess is that if neither are willing to accept a hometown discount 1 year deal, theyll move on from Kenley and Martin and redeploy the money to two setup man type relievers with a good amount of track record of success to go with Hendriks and Fullmer, who are question marks themselves trying to bounce back from injuries.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 18, 2024 1:06:36 GMT -5
Re: the Burnes vs. Montgomery comparison, I get it, but the difference in Burnes' age, current performance, and past success sets him on a whole other level. I agree there's a concerning trend in some of the metrics, but with Montgomery you could see him turning into a guy who wasn't able to get MLB hitters out if things went wrong, whereas if Burnes falls to his floor he starts to look like, what, Nathan Eovaldi? Not someone I want to give a mega contract to but I don't see him being a complete disaster in terms of performance. If the Sox choose to sign Burnes to any realistically possible contract, its really hard for me to imagine being angry about it - may not love it, may think its an overpay, but unless Breslow trades the big 3 for relief pitching or something, they should have enough cheap talent for the next few years to absorb the cost without too much trouble. If the Sox choose to trade for pitching, the following offseason would be a better time than this upcoming one, in terms of them having a better idea of who to make available, I think. I would rather they trade for Eovaldi than sign Burnes. I think they wouldnt have to as I believe he will be a free agent this winter
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 17, 2024 19:10:09 GMT -5
I have not noticed anyone saying he's being traded now. However his team friendly deal increases his value making him and his contract more desirable to other teams therefore by common sense increases the chances he's traded at some point during his contract with the Sox. Everything I just wrote above should not be a point of contention but rather accepted as common sense. Also if he's traded it would have little to no impact on other players signing extensions. It never has in the past yet people love to state these type of things often enough that I think people begin to believe as truth. They believe it despite no evidence to support it. Edit: I'm not advocating trading Rafaela. Didn`t that happen to Bronson Arroyo? Not long after signing a team friendly deal with the Sox he was traded for Wily Mo Pena. Yup, and Theo Epstein regretted that trade.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 17, 2024 14:45:19 GMT -5
That is a different perspective. Makes me wonder how he can have so much red yet be only 27th out of 61 qualified starters in FIP, 11th by xERA, 32nd by K/9, etc. He's got a weird thing going on where his whiff rate is pretty good but his K rate is kind of average. Not saying this is the correct answer, but you could go glass half-full and say that is an anomaly that is temporarily killing his k/9 and FIP this year. Yes. Honestly whis been better of the past few years including this year? And durability matters. He's pitching 180 innings plus. Other guys with better rates probably aren't throwing much more than 150 innings. He has been reliable and effective Meanwhile the Sox 2 best pitchers who had comparable results have smashed into the innings wall pretty hard. Being able to give 180 strong innings matter.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 17, 2024 14:41:25 GMT -5
Something like that. He's a lot like Joey Gallo. But without the walks and with lesser defense.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 17, 2024 14:40:37 GMT -5
Having Kenley around reminds me of when the Sox had Lee Smith.
The Sox had acquired a future HOFer who had seen his best days with the Cubs although while pitching a notch below that in Boston, Lee Smith was very good, just not dominant, although hed have s nice season or two with the Cardinals when the Sox traded him for Tom Brunansky. The Sox traded him because they had Jeff Reardon waiting in the wings.
In a way that reminds me a bit of Kenley. He's still quite good - wish he had gotten Kiké Hernandez and Trent Grisham out, but still, excellent and reliable and a guy who will be deserving of his HOF days.
Like Smith who is most remembered for his Cubs days, Kenley will be remembered for his Dodgers days.
I'd like to see Kenley retained for another season or two, but like Smith, he's just passing through. The Sox already have his closer replacement on the roster in Liam Hendricks, similar to Reardon and Smith being teammates for a month.
So I'm not emotionally attached to him. His complaining about the FO doesn't bother me at all. Actually makes me like him more because he cares about winning.
I'll remember Kenley for doing a really good job with the Sox and should Hendriks struggle next season then I'll really miss Jansen. I'll miss him either way. I'm glad the Sox signed him. Wish for both of our sakes that they had surrounded him with a team that could have given him more save opportunities.
Honestly though I'll remember him most for giving up a game tying crucial HR in Game 4 to Pearce in the 8th because Roberts was expecting him to go two innings, which was more than should gave been expected of him. I'll also remember him giving up a tying HR to JBJ in Game 3 in the 8th. Maybe he's just a 9th inning guy.
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