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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 31, 2024 12:43:15 GMT -5
It's pretty clear that Breslow believes 2024 free agency is a bad investment. I don't believe ownership is putting any financial constraints on Breslow up to the LT, I just think Breslow is not enamored with what is available and I think he has taken a lesson from what happened with Bloom's tenure. Bloom was not agressive enough in building back up. He didn't make the best use of the resources that were provided to him and ultimately it probably cost the franchise a year or maybe two. He should have traded Bogaerts, JD, Sale, Paxton, and Verdugo. That may have put the Red Sox in position to be more competitive on the field and in free agency now. But given that's not what happened, Breslow is correcting the mistakes he can (Sale, Verdugo) and using an early get out of jail free card to see how good the young major league players. As far as Carrabis, he's a carnival barker spreading conspiracy theories - that's all Red Sox twitter is now. That’s all well and good, but people are seriously discounting how good the Sox were last year and how close they were to making the playoffs. The team was 57-50 at the trade deadline and Bloom left them out to dry. Isn’t that the exact type of team you should be ADDING to? There was no world in which Bogaerts was getting traded, plus he had a NTC. Everybody was sick of Verdugo by the end but trading him any earlier would not have made the team better. JD is the one that made absolutely no sense to hold on at the deadline and go over the luxury tax. But, the tax was reset last year and even still, they can add pitching without going over the LTT this year. It seems really weird to just say “Breslow thinks the team stinks so he isn’t spending” I can’t imagine that being the philosophy of any front office when there is one glaring issue that when fixed will make the team a serious playoff contender. In the last two hours, this board produced the following two quotes: "I feel like people don't realize, or maybe are in denial, with just how bad this team has been the last few years" and "people are seriously discounting how good the Sox were last year and how close they were to making the playoffs" I love the internet.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 30, 2024 13:35:52 GMT -5
No I didn’t , all the reporters across baseball have said his preference is to play closer to Seattle , no reason to be mean and accuse me of things There is a very obvious difference between “Snell prefers to stay on the west coast” and “Snell does not want to play in Boston”
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 30, 2024 13:09:39 GMT -5
Just a general thought all offseason that he wants to be on the west coast , if you can give me a report he wants to play in Boston I’d love to see it There's no report that I know of that explicitly states that he wants to play in Boston, but that doesn't change the fact that you just entirely made your statement up.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 30, 2024 12:43:45 GMT -5
Snell doesn’t want to be here and Montgomery’s wife is here on her internship , makes sense , give him an opt out in two years , give me some sort of Red Sox excitement , this offseason depression is real and sickening Is there anything of substance to this statement at all?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 29, 2024 12:59:23 GMT -5
Anybody who is good at statistics and/or psychology: is the 5th percentile outcome more likely than the 95th percentile outcome? Obviously the math will say no, but my gut says yes and I have nothing to back that up. I feel like it's easier to bet on failure, especially when it's a team stat, than success. So many things can go wrong but rarely does everything go right. It depends on what you're doing, IMO. If you're just flipping a coin where there is no force acting against you (I'm sure there's actually a word for it, I just don't know it), then those two percentile outcomes are exactly the same. But when you are in a competitive environment with factors like injuries that disproportionately affect you in the negative (a Devers injury hurts the Red Sox for every game they play whereas an Aaron Judge injury only helps them directly for the 16 or whatever games they play the Yankees), it is just intuitively "easier" to be bad than it is to be good.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 29, 2024 12:49:24 GMT -5
93 wins. Casas and Devers hit 40 bombs each, Duran hits 50 doubles and swipes 40 bags, Giolito puts up a vintage 4-WAR season, Pivetta finally puts it all together and gets Cy Young votes, Story stays healthy the whole season and hits 25 bombs, Grissom takes to second immediately and hits .300, Yoshida maintains an .880 OPS for the full season, and Abreu/O’Neill combine to significantly outproduce Verdugo and Duvall. Tanner Houck adds a nasty splitter that helps him hold lefties to a .700 OPS and greatly reduces his 3rd time penalty. This isn’t especially likely to happen but it’s no less likely than the scenario where they lose 90 games. This feels significantly less likely than a scenario in which they lose 90 games lol, and I say that as someone who is generally optimistic about things still. I would be thrilled if like 30% of these things happened.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 24, 2024 12:47:16 GMT -5
[Commenting here on the other thread's discussion of Blaze as a top-10 1B prospect] Is the goal this year to show that Blaze can play a passable LF, particularly in the Fenway environment? He's the RH bat we'd love to have, but he's also blocked by Casas at first, and DH is a muddle for the foreseeable future, because of Yoshida. Matt Stairs got 17 games in left... why not Blaze? TOTALLY agree with this! I didn't understand not doing it some last year. He will never be a 3rd baseman. And as said, Casas, hopefully, will be our everyday 1st baseman for the next decade. Blaze is an interesting prospect because I thought he would hit for more power and less hit. Instead, it is the other way around, and I like that. He definitely has extreme power and he is one of guys I'm looking forward to taking a big leap this year. I won't be surprised if he hits, at least, 25 bombs this year. Defensively he will always be sub-par. So get him reps in left. He is so young and he could definitely be someone we are talking about a lot this upcoming season! To this point, pulling from the System in Review: "<15% & >.200: Only one hitter in the South Atlantic League with at least 200 PAs (N = 128) had a K% < 15% and an ISO of > .200. That was Blaze Jordan. In fact, if you set the K% threshold to 20% and count hitters with an ISO of .200 or more, you still only find two guys out of the 128 player sample." If you'd have told me at the time of the draft that Blaze would be putting up those kinds of numbers and playing in AA at 20 years old, I would've been *way* off on my assumptions of his prospect status. And that's not to say that his status is wrong, I get the issues that lead to the skepticism, it's still just pretty surprising to me.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 24, 2024 11:18:37 GMT -5
Is Mayer’s ETA realistically 2024? I have a hard time seeing him even as end-season call-up, but maybe I’m underestimating? If health was really holding him back last year, and he's healthy this year, I'd say it's probably like a 30% chance still (talking "arrival" not cup of coffee or best injury fill-in). So seems wrong to me. Well sure, if you don't include a cup of coffee or an injury fill-in I guess you could see it as "wrong", but I think they're also quite literally projecting when that player will first play a Major League game. With a good season I'd call it probable that Mayer would get at least a little time in September if the Sox aren't in the playoff hunt.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 24, 2024 10:27:53 GMT -5
I mostly agree with you and while I was interested in Hoskins at the right price, I’m fine with being out on him there. But come on, “only slightly more productive than Dalbec” is ridiculous. Dalbec against LH pitching: .273/.338/.517 What would Hoskins realistic role have been on this team? A platoon player against lefthanded pitching? Taking DH ABs from the other possible options as the Sox rotate that spot? I don't understand. 1. Hoskins is .250/.399/.522, which I'd say is more than "slightly" better. 2. A lot of Bobby's numbers there are bolstered by his torrid 2021 stretch, and at some point we have to accept that that's just not something he's going to reliably be able to provide at the major league level. 3. Hoskins wouldn't *just* be a platoon bat against lefties, as he'd have likely gotten some DH reps against righties as well, where he's also much better than Dalbec. So just cherry-picking one stat isn't even a useful exercise here. The third one is a moot point anyway as I literally said in my post I agree that for the most part, the fit wasn't the most natural. My only point of disagreement was on the production comparison, where Dablec is in no way comparable.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 24, 2024 8:05:58 GMT -5
Why Hoskins? O'Neill plays all the outfield positions and could presumably spell Yoshida, Duran, and Abreu. Not so Hoskins who is at first base, period, and undoubtedly looking for a fulltime gig. Of what possible use is he to the Sox at that price? On a strictly platoon basis, and the Sox do have a regular at first base, he's only slightly more productive than Dalbec, more expensive, and limited defensively. I mostly agree with you and while I was interested in Hoskins at the right price, I’m fine with being out on him there. But come on, “only slightly more productive than Dalbec” is ridiculous.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 22, 2024 20:01:54 GMT -5
My outlandish hope is that they still sign Montgomery, my next tier of hope is that they sign Soler to a one year deal so that, if the Sox aren’t competitive, they can shed some expiring assets (at this point Kenley makes much more sense as a deadline deal to me) and gear up for whenever they view their actual window. Duvall or Turner fit this same bill, I guess.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 22, 2024 17:00:28 GMT -5
Relevant text from the ESPN+ article quoted above. I'd be very interested to see if, outside of the Twins example mentioned, there's actually any correlation there. That feels like shaky reasoning at best.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 22, 2024 9:40:00 GMT -5
I’ll go straight down the middle with 81. This feels like roughly an average team, I have a hard time seeing any scenario in which they’re worse than that in which Cora’s seat isn’t smoking hot, injuries aside.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 18, 2024 15:39:12 GMT -5
Wow, he’s Driveline’s founder. A lot of the brightest minds in pitching are coming to Boston this winter. I may have asked this in this thread already, I've certainly asked it in my mind, but have other teams been poaching Driveline as well? I know they've gained a lot of publicity in the past couple years, but it seems like the Red Sox have invested in that philosophy pretty disproportionately. I'm not saying that's a bad thing, it's just crazy to see such an established pipeline.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 16, 2024 14:25:39 GMT -5
I want them to show that they are committed to winning right now. It's more emotional than rational, I'm a fan, not a gm. Like waiting for something at the trade deadline. Get me excited, get the fans excited, get the players excited. How pumped would Devers been if they had gotten pitching last year. I would have been. We need a little stroking, especially after sucking so hard the past few years, we need to know the owners care RIGHT NOW. Just don't do anything stupid. So you want them to make a token move to put the fans at ease… but not do anything stupid. I’m not sure there’s any real in-between there.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 15, 2024 12:18:17 GMT -5
whens the last time we got one of the top guys? This has been a pretty intentional strategy of theirs for at least a few years, Daniel Flores was probably the last “top” guy they’d signed.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 15, 2024 10:47:53 GMT -5
Badler is back to listing bonuses? He wasn't before. Seems like he’s not doing it for the Mets guys, so maybe it’s just a function of who gives him that info?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 15, 2024 9:54:07 GMT -5
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 11, 2024 22:55:57 GMT -5
By the math I did in my head real quick they paid out about 625K more than the projections on their arb guys, not bad. And to think people are trying to call ownership cheap!!
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 11, 2024 21:50:06 GMT -5
What does “arguably” mean here? This is a genuine question, are the projections for the Sox not up? If they are, I’m confused why you wouldn’t just compare it like for like to their projections. I was comparing the fWAR projections to what one might reasonably expect from Giolito/Bello/Crawford/Pivetta/Houck. If you want the literal Steamer comparison then just take out the 'arguably'. I guess I just don’t see why you would take the projections are their word for the free agents, but not for the incumbents.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 11, 2024 21:31:15 GMT -5
Remaining FA starters with a fWAR projection that is arguably better than at least one of the Red Sox' current five best starters: Snell - 3.3 Montgomery - 3.2 Paxton - 2.3 Ryu - 1.8 What does “arguably” mean here? This is a genuine question, are the projections for the Sox not up? If they are, I’m confused why you wouldn’t just compare it like for like to their projections.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 11, 2024 21:09:11 GMT -5
Isn’t he still recovering from shoulder issues? Yeah this video was why I thought he may be there. Not a big deal that he wasn’t, just curious. Maybe I’ll start a “Trevor Story is threatened by Marcelo Mayer” narrative
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 11, 2024 20:00:05 GMT -5
I don’t think it much matters but is there any known reason why Mayer isn’t there?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 11, 2024 9:49:08 GMT -5
“Based on conversations I’ve had with people close to the situation, the Red Sox are trying to keep outfield commitments to two years and didn’t want to extend to a third year. In order to add Hernández, they were looking to move another outfielder — Ken Rosenthal and I reported last week they had received offers on Masataka Yoshida — but it appears they ultimately decided not to make any of the moves that would have cleared a spot for Hernandez and he and his agent didn’t want to wait any longer with the Dodgers offer on the table. The shorter commitments the Red Sox are seeking suggest they are expecting to rely heavily on prospects like Roman Anthony and Ceddanne Rafaela in the near future.” If Anthony and Rafaela even come close to their ceilings that's 2/3 of an OF worth salivating over so really don't hate if the plan is to just keep the seat warm for them so to speak. Shouldn't be too hard to find a LF bopper to slide in next to them either, or perhaps just run with Duran in LF. Hell, Teoscar Hernandez is going to be a free agent next offseason, too! I understand it if that's their approach, though I will admit the bit about having offers for Yoshida and not going for it is a little triggering because, on the surface, that feels like the same type of thing that doomed Bloom. But that's a very loose comparable, I'm still generally fine with what appears to be the plan given this team's timeline.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 10, 2024 12:46:25 GMT -5
I appreciate your commitment to getting this same comment onto every single page of this thread at least once. I don’t even get how saying it makes sense given that they haven’t given up a single good prospect all offseason. There is quite literally nothing about it that makes sense at all.
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