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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 10, 2024 9:47:16 GMT -5
1. Connelly Early - this is a combination of A) Me liking what I saw from him when I watched him pitch in his Regional, B) Him having a ton of room to climb being relatively low ranked, and C) an acknowledgment that his limitations as a prospect likely won't show until the upper minors so he should have a pretty good chance to produce in his first full season.
2. Teel feels like the obvious one, and I think Cespedes has a lot of fun potential as a huge riser next year. But as Nomar mentioned getting out of Salem potentially helping Bleis' prospect equity, I feel the same about Johanfran Garcia. I am probably a year too early on this one because given his age and relative inexperience, who knows how much time he even gets in Greenville, if any. But given how aggressive they were with promotions last year, if he is offensively developed enough to get to Greenville by midseason, he could be a potential helium guy.
3. Nazzan Zanatello. Certainly expect some growing pains, but also expect some real wow moments and hoping he can take a big step towards putting the tools together this year.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 9, 2024 23:15:01 GMT -5
yuchangclan with all due respect, my health/social life/career/ finances/whatever hasn't been great the last few years: do you want me to complain about it every time I see you? Seriously? I was taught when you engage another person(s) -- in this forum via the written word -- the first consideration is your audience. Why dump this endless harangue on your forum mates? It's beyond tiresome. It's boring. With all due respect. Nobody is forcing you to read any of this or post, so when you post multiple times complaining about others’ complaints, not only are you not doing anything productive you’re doing the exact same thing that frustrates you in the first place.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 9, 2024 23:11:57 GMT -5
OMG they didn't sign the guy I've never seen pitch, hadn't heard of until a couple months ago. #ProofTheyreNotTrying Aside to Mgt: how many times can I re-post this, or some derivative, in reply. to the endless parroting of JH/FSG is cheap/not trying? Some posters that is literally all they post. I expect to see it in game threads. Player A strikes out, leaves bases loaded. Poster:"If John Henry wasn't cheap we'd have Player B who never strikes out with the bases loaded ..." These posts defending the lack of spending continue to get weirder. I was a BIG Bloom guy when he was here, and I found myself in the same camp as most who said they were going to spend this off-season, and it was a bridge year in 2023. Well, it's the off-season now, and we have not spent money, but we're still giving it a pass?
The team, as currently constructed might compete for 4th place, but it's not better than the Yankees or Blue Jays or Orioles. The reports so far are that they won't sign any major free agents. On the Masslive podcast today, Sean McAdam said they wouldn't be close to the first luxury tax threshold. I know that I'll simply be told that those reporters are click bait and negative, but this has been a pretty widespread narrative around the team this off-season.
Telling people they shouldn't comment on a signing because they didn't know about the guy until last season is just weird, man.
Doubly weird because that poster constantly clutches his pearls whenever someone makes a very inoffensive generalization directed at nobody, so more than a little irony there
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 9, 2024 23:11:13 GMT -5
Given how reasonable a lot of these pitching contracts have been, this board is at risk of a full meltdown if the Montgomery contract follows that trend and it’s not with the Sox lol www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?pos=sp&sign=signedSo far for all the sticker shock with certain free agents, the prices dudes have gotten aren’t that off from projections (unless you are Shohei Ohtani or Yamamoto - which is it’s own discussion.) If Boras gets Montgomery 150 mil that will be 1) like 50 mil more than originally projected before silly season started, 2) an absolute master class in negotiating. Yeah I guess they have been closer than I thought, maybe I’m just framing the lack of clear overpays as an abundance of bargains in my head
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 9, 2024 22:49:17 GMT -5
Given how reasonable a lot of these pitching contracts have been, this board is at risk of a full meltdown if the Montgomery contract follows that trend and it’s not with the Sox lol
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 9, 2024 12:50:36 GMT -5
Damn, Cotillo catching a lot of flak for some pretty tame comments and being largely accurate so far in who the Red Sox were not finalists for. People: "Why are there no reports of the Red Sox doing anything??? Are they even trying?" Cotillo, a guy with legitimate sources, gives updates about what he's hearing: "NOT LIKE THAT!" There have been a lot of instances in the past couple weeks of Cotillo being, um, less than professional. But the last two tweets people have used to try to call him out for being negative have been pretty normal reporter-y stuff, so feel like it’s gone too far on both ends now.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 8, 2024 16:46:28 GMT -5
Not saying anything is imminent or will even involve the Red Sox but this Mish guy appears to be a Miami guy and he's sitting here saying "good trading coming turn that frown upside down" that would lead me to believe it's potentially favorable for Miami. If my rudimentary detective work is correct in the slightest I would not want said trade to involve the Red Sox. It could always be a good trade for both clubs involved. However, the way this weird off season is going so far anything is possible. Also just because that one guy thinks the trade is good, doesn't mean it necessarily will be. If it's Yoshida for Edward Cabrera (pipe dream but just saying), maybe he's just a huge Yoshida fan.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 8, 2024 15:42:28 GMT -5
Imanaga is obviously a good player, but painting it to be "We gotta get a Japanese guy, we just gotta!" is certainly a choice haha
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 8, 2024 13:01:36 GMT -5
Comparatively, Rafaela is projected by Steamer with a slash-line of .254/.295/.417 and a 87 wRC+ (in a small number of games; ZIPS projects him with a 94 OPS+). With the added bonus that 1) he can play middle infield when you need him to, 2) he can be optioned, and 3) will be making the league minimum. Yeah I don't dislike Taylor (nor did I dislike Bader) in a vacuum for the role he provides, but even if Rafaela doesn't start the year in Boston, it just doesn't feel like an effective use of resources to pursue an obvious redundancy.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 4, 2024 10:27:44 GMT -5
Contract novice question here, but since they revamped his contract structure for 2024 does that mean the Sox are no longer on the hook for that $17 million they sent from a CBT threshold perspective?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 3, 2024 16:46:46 GMT -5
This is just me spitballing off the top of my head, but could it potentially affect his ability to receive a QO?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 3, 2024 13:45:18 GMT -5
Is there some kind of restriction on the contract international free agents are on after signing? What’s stopping a team from giving Sasaki their entire pool and then saying oh we’ll just give you the mega deal after you’re signed? I’d imagine there’s SOMETHING preventing that, but not sure the exact mechanics.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 3, 2024 11:15:14 GMT -5
Did anyone watch Baseball is Dead Podcast Yesterday? Carribas or however the hell you spell his name, mentioned something about the Sox look into trading Trevor Story He's since said he's not heard that, he only saw a rando account on twitter mention it, whatever that means. While I'm 100% sure every single significant person in the organization has had their trade market temperature checked in the last month, when I asked about Story last night, I got a "that would be incredibly dumb" message back. I think this would be a super dumb move to make *right now*, but if Mayer re-establishes himself this upcoming season I think it should absolutely be a consideration next offseason, and was surprised it really wasn’t mentioned on the pod when discussing the future of the MIF.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Dec 31, 2023 0:02:46 GMT -5
I really don’t understand trying to get rafaela’s bat into the lineup through the middle infield. Most of if not all his value this year is going to come from him being an elite center field defender. It was a small sample size last year, but he did not look like a guy we should be moving around to get into the lineup. That’s not to say that’s always the case, he can absolutely develop and maybe that changes, but i don’t see the need to do it now. You're getting an elite defender at 3 different positions. That's the point. So why try to pigeonhole him at the least valuable of the three when the CBO has come out and said explicitly that they just got the full-timer at that position?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Dec 30, 2023 16:22:29 GMT -5
A bit more pessimistic than I expected — to those arguing about his hit tool, Ian offers a bit more insight. He also suggests some scouts think Grissom isn’t suitable for the infield and, instead, projects best in LF. Get him in the Driveline bat speed lab!!!
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Dec 30, 2023 15:50:05 GMT -5
Arguing that a kid that made the majors at 21 years old as a bat-first player having a below-average hit tool is some insane cope to fit a narrative lol Then why did the Braves sour on him and trade him for 1 year of Chris Sale? Either the scouting reports are wrong or a regression is coming. Or maybe because they already have capable MIF options and he’s extremely blocked at his most logical position? I mean seriously, this takes two seconds of critical thought to determine that they’re trading from a position of strength to fill a weakness and get a player that fits their timeline.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Dec 30, 2023 15:47:07 GMT -5
I can maybe understand not liking this trade in an absolute vacuum, but it’s also pretty low risk and could be a very easy first step in a series of further moves.
If, for example, they sign Montgomery and bring Paxton back, then they’ve upgraded the rotation in the aggregate AND filled second baseman with a young, cost-controlled piece with some upside.
Still a few moves to go here, but the vision is obvious and Sale is just not as valuable as many here seem to think that he is. He’s a good but oft-injured pitcher that likely wasn’t moving the needle on this team’s contention in 2024. Kind of an obvious take to me.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Dec 30, 2023 15:42:04 GMT -5
Arguing that a kid that made the majors at 21 years old as a bat-first player having a below-average hit tool is some insane cope to fit a narrative lol
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Dec 30, 2023 14:12:11 GMT -5
I like this in theory, love it if it is the first step to bringing Montgomery in.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Dec 28, 2023 12:19:48 GMT -5
Anyone think they would grab Chapman and move Devers to LF? Anyone think Devers would accept a move to LF (or 2nd)? After seeing Mookie's transition back to the infield, I'm also stubbornly continuing to advocate moving Duran back to 2nd where he played for most of his life, throw Rafaela in CF where he's plus, if not plus-plus and fill in the other blanks with free agents. So, yeah, it's Christmas week, I've had a lot of sugar and carbs and I'm thinking outside of the box(ing day). Feels like it'd be easier to just DH Devers then to try and move him to LF and I don't think either is likely at this point. Yeah I’d given the Chapman thing a thought as well but it feels like the type of decision to make in a few more years when moving Devers is more justifiable, doesn’t feel like the right time even if it’d likely help the team in the short term.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Dec 23, 2023 12:08:10 GMT -5
I wonder if Langeliers or Gelof would be available in a trade with Oakland. Langeliers had a 105 wRC+ in the 2nd half of the year, and is a RHB with a huge Pulled FB% making him a good fit for Fenway like Duvall. He would be an upgrade over Wong and he’s under control until 2029. If the bat develops far enough, if he was pushed off of C by Teel he could play some LF and DH. Gelof has some pop, played a slightly above average 2B last year, has speed, and is a line drive hitter who I would consider more park neutral. Neither would be cheap by any means, and Oakland might not want to trade them, but they’re not competing anytime soon. Gelof would be cool but he’s probably still too cost-controlled for the A’s to even really consider it. I’d be pretty out on Langeliers, would seem like a very marginal upgrade over Wong if an upgrade at all and I don’t know if I’d like the bat enough anywhere outside of catcher.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Dec 22, 2023 11:00:52 GMT -5
Giolito got cy young votes 2 years ago and Yamamoto hasn’t throw a big league pitch, it’s not that outrageous Giolito was the worst pitcher in baseball since June of last season and he somehow managed to ruin 3 different seasons. This guy also he single-handedly raised my fantasy baseball ERA from a 3.2 to 4.06 and my team pitched 1500 innings. Yamamoto might not be Garret Cole, but he's more than a win better than Giolito and any formula that tells you otherwise is broken. Not that I’m pro-Giolito but if you’re using your fantasy team and some hobby formulas you tinker around with as evidence of a claim… it’s pretty hard to take it seriously at all
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Dec 22, 2023 10:37:22 GMT -5
So in 2027 the Dodgers will have:
37yo Freddie Freeman - $25 million 34yo Mookie Betts - $26 million 32yo Shohei Ohtani - $46 million 33yo Tyler Glasnow - $27 million 28yo Yoshinobu Yamamoto - $27 million
That's $151 million tied up in five guys with a lot of question marks floating around them.
And they also may have 3 World Series rings to show for it! Not only do I think this is pretty weak spin because half of those guys won’t even hit concerning territory yet (28 years old is still mid-prime, Ohtani should still likely be an elite hitter by 32 so even if he’s overpaid as that he’s still valuable), it also just ignores that you have to take risks *somewhere* if you want to win. If that risk is blowing a ton of cash on long contracts and maybe being saddled with a handful of aged out stars, so be it. But you’re being either intentionally intellectually dishonest or obtuse if you act like there’s not a very obvious flip side to that.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Dec 20, 2023 12:14:32 GMT -5
Didn’t check fWAR but bWAR said Montgomery would have been our best player last season. To me when you get a guy who was more valuable at the big league level than everybody in the org that would be a big deal. Even if he isn’t a true ace He was the 11th best SP in baseball last season. How is that not an ace? Ive been saying this for 2 weeks. YY isn't picking us so wet need to shift our focus to JM AND Snell. We can afford them both and that moves the needle for our team. They way other players will want to play here. What AAV do you think Montgomery and Snell will be getting that would make them cheaper than Yamamoto himself? This is the umpteenth time you’ve mentioned something along those lines and I’m not sure it really holds in reality.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Dec 18, 2023 11:17:58 GMT -5
red sox & mets are rumored to make higher offers then the yankees Martino says that the Yankees aren't expected to make as high an offer, but also feel pretty good about landing Yamamoto. That is annoying because it implies either that Yamamoto would give the Yankees a discount to sign with them or that the Yankees are being their usual arrogant selves. That’s also the dude that was raving about how the Yankees scout their own system after the Soto trade, FWIW. Not a source I care all that much about.
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