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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 30, 2023 11:04:26 GMT -5
What is the assertion that Story is injury prone based on? The only two years he’s played fewer than 85% of the possible games were his rookie year and last year (with five years of relatively consistent health in between) And this year Ah fair I was lumping in last year’s and this year’s thinking the latter was the extension of the former, but alas I was wrong. But either way I don’t feel like I’d call him injury prone given how last year’s occurred.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 30, 2023 10:51:30 GMT -5
In theory, I can buy into the logic, but it depends on how confident you are in those guys being healthy and ready to contribute. Sale is still the guy who's pitched like 100 innings since the end of 2019...one setback and you look like a dope for counting on him as your big pitching addition. I don't think they need to make a big splash, but this rotation needs a 4/5 who can eat some innings at a bare minimum. Thats the thing. Story and Sale are injury prone. You can't count on them. What is the assertion that Story is injury prone based on? The only two years he’s played fewer than 85% of the possible games were his rookie year and last year (with five years of relatively consistent health in between)
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 29, 2023 21:53:08 GMT -5
Every org will do things differently but worth noting draftees are starting to trickle into FCL lineups, would have to imagine it won’t be long now
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 22:48:43 GMT -5
Kutter will pretty comfortably** go down as the pitching MVP of this season for me. Bello has been better but having Kutter is the difference between a rotation in complete shambles due to injury and the one they’re currently holding together by a string to keep it going.
** if everything kinda holds
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 22:07:32 GMT -5
offense always seems hard to come by on west coast trips I hear ya but Webb is filthy tonight too He’s one of my favorite pitchers in the league, obviously not cheering for him tonight but love watching him work.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 21:55:00 GMT -5
I feel like Yoshida hits much better when he plays Left Field as opposed to when he's the DH. It might just be my imagination. Does anyone know if there's stats for this? .332/.384/.535 as LF (237 PA) .287/.366/.442 as DH (145 PA) Not sure the sample/gap has me fully bought in to it being a real trend yet but definitely an interesting thing to follow and a good observation on your end
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 21:42:00 GMT -5
Been a great year for pitching prospect development
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 20:24:33 GMT -5
Yeah, I’m not quite sure how Pipeline still has him on their list at all, let alone 9th I think that speaks to how bad the Padres farm system is now That was my first thought too but FG has them 12th so they’re not awful
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 20:18:29 GMT -5
He has an 8.01 ERA lol Based on other discussions, maybe you believe that's "doing well", if so carry on It's kind of unbelievable how bad he's been. 8.01 ERA, 6.88 FIP, 6.46 xFIP in 94.1 IP. Of pitchers with 50+ IP in the Pacific Coast League, he's got the third-worst ERA, eighth-worst FIP and fifth-worst xFIP. Yeah, I’m not quite sure how Pipeline still has him on their list at all, let alone 9th
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 19:51:37 GMT -5
Mayer's interesting, June was clearly a BABIP month (0.186) as he had decent K%, BB% and power. July is a similar wOBA with more average and a fine BABIP (0.318) but minimal power or discipline. K% is still fine though so he doesn't appear to be getting overmatched. So maybe July is a bit concerning, but at this point I'm at the point where I can't draw any conclusions without seeing the batted ball data. June's batted ball data was fine, so maybe July is just him slumping. FWIW - all of Mayer, Yorke, Meidroth, and Blaze have produced poor results in July so who knows what's going on. Mayer has been the best of the 4 of them. Hopefully he turns it around in August but even if not, going into the winter with some adversity isn't a bad thing given how young he is. What’s encouraging about Blaze is that, in this extremely SSS, he’s still not really striking out much. Not walking much either so having some of the same concerns as we’ve been discussing ad nauseam with Rafaela (just with WAY more pressure on the bat), but I’m glad he’s not at least totally overwhelmed.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 19:49:41 GMT -5
Are we rooting for the Astros or Rays? Astros. 2017 against the playoffs against the Sox aside, they've been our savior when it comes to beating the Yankees in the playoffs. The Rays have been the worst since the beginning of their expansion. Plus the Rangers seems like they might head into a free fall. Astros looking like they win the West. The last bit here is the key to me. Houston getting Altuve and Alvarez back while Texas is getting dinged up and looking a little more mortal makes me think they’re (meaning the rangers) the most passable team ahead of the Sox right now.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 19:29:18 GMT -5
Mayer's struggles continue. Maybe it's just me, but I think even a heralded prospect like him should earn his chops at each level. I'd move him down in Portland's lineup until he starts to figure it out. I understand what you’re saying for sure but minor league lineups are mostly about getting as many at-bats as possible, which is what Mayer needs. So I don’t think what you’re saying is unfair but also don’t think they should move him down.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 19:02:52 GMT -5
Yes, so Seabold was the highest ranked prospect that he himself acquired and then traded. You've said like 3-4x now that facts don't fit my beliefs, when not only is the reverse true but you can believe whatever you want anyways. Let's agree to disagree. They show 6 DD drafted guys versus 1 Bloom guy and then say you're wrong. Nevermind the one guy traded wasn't even a top 60 guy. The Bloom fan club in full swing. Again, four of those guys were before Bloom even had a draft class to trade, so how exactly would you expect him to choose one of his guys in that situation..
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 19:02:01 GMT -5
Yes, so Seabold was the highest ranked prospect that he himself acquired and then traded. You've said like 3-4x now that facts don't fit my beliefs, when not only is the reverse true but you can believe whatever you want anyways. Let's agree to disagree. Claiming the reverse is true but then conveniently choosing not to expand on it despite multiple opportunities to do so is some very “I have a girlfriend, she just goes to a different school” energy. But whatever, I digress. Thread hijacking (almost) over.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 18:27:04 GMT -5
Yorke had "a minor Achilles’ injury" per Speier's latest Minor Details I am personally very glad that I didn't see this news until he was back in the lineup
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 18:24:30 GMT -5
Since I'm bored and have too much time on my hands, here is a comprehensive list of every minor leaguer Chaim Bloom has traded since he's started here. Again, I'm ONLY including minor leaguers because you can't compare MLB players that he's traded to prospects, those two archetypes do not have equivalent values nor would a team looking for one generally accept the other as a substitute. If you disagree with that logic, whatever. Also some of these guys were drafted or signed before DD but I'm just lumping them all in together for simplicity. (Also I'm using Spotrac's transactions tracker so if I'm missing one blame them).
Angeudis Santos (DD IFA) Sam Travis (DD Draftee - counting this one even though he technically got MLB time) Jhon Nunez (DD IFA) Travis Lakins (DD Draftee) Brandon Workman (DD Draftee) Heath Hembree (DD Trade Acq) Yoan Aybar (DD IFA) CJ Chatham (DD Draftee)
Now I'm stopping here because that's a majority of the DD draftees Chaim has traded, and those all came BEFORE he even had his first draft class!! I wish I could say everyone could understand that it'd be difficult to trade one of your own draftees before you've had your first draft, but I'm sure some people would believe it's possible..
Aldo Ramirez (DD IFA) Alex Scherff (DD Draftee) Michael Chavis (one guy who I'd make a note is a pre-DD draftee) Jay Groome (DD Draftee) Inmer Lobo (Bloom IFA) Hoy Park (Bloom Trade Acq) Jacob Wallace (Bloom Trade Acq) Connor Seabold (Bloom Trade Acq) Frank German (Bloom Trade Acq) Marques Johnson (Bloom Draftee)
So in the time since Bloom has had his first draft class, he has traded a grand total of 2 Dombrowski draftees. He's also actually traded more players he's acquired than DD acquired in that time span, though certainly most of his acquisition guys were much more marginal than DD's.
But there's also something to say about the tradability of a draft class. You aren't going to trade key pieces from a draft until at least a year out from their draft date, and realistically you're probably waiting two. So to act like Bloom has even had all that many tradeable picks is pretty illogical. The 2022 and 2023 class are mostly untouchable. Obviously Marques Johnson makes it not entirely so, but we're now approaching that year mark where you would at least start to listen on minor guys, and he's obviously shown a willingness to do so. The only classes you could've really considered tradable up until this point were 2020 (a class with 4 total players) and 2021, a class with a first rounder as untouchable as untouchable gets and where they didn't sign their second rounder. You can use the same general philosophy for IFA classes.
I'm sorry that the facts don't fit your "belief", but they just don't. And given that I've already pointed out the number of high-value DD acquisitions left in the system are few and far between, I wouldn't anticipate the evidence drastically shifting in your favor, either.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 18:06:18 GMT -5
Putting aside the lack of logic or any semblance of evidence behind that belief.. if it's not a Bloom guy getting traded, who is it gonna be? Not a lot of DD guys left in the system with any sort of value at this point. And that's not a shot at Dombrowski by any means, it's just been over three years at this point, most of them are either graduated or middling prospects by natural progression. Dude, move on. I gave you three very clear examples in addition to the ones I haven't given you. The only evidence you gave was a guy not even ranked in the top 40. Go look at his past trades and guys he has let go and then decide for yourself. If you disagree, which you clearly do, that's fine. We are going to find out in a few days tops and I am betting we aren't going to see a top Bloom draftee get moved. You gave me one example (again, Ramirez wasn’t a draftee and Beni should not even count in the discussion). Also, I wasn’t the one who brought up Johnson’s name. I told you the number of draftees for each who’ve been traded, the difference isn’t statistically significant even if there weren’t a ton of logical factors confounding your argument. Telling me to move on when you can’t help yourself from taking a shot at Bloom every other day is delicious irony, though.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 17:50:31 GMT -5
Lmao you said he was not inclined to trade his draftees and he literally did it this week. You can’t move the goalposts. Cmon now. If you think Marques Johnson is comparable to those guys then Im not sure what to tell you. He has very little trade value. Comparing that to a top ten guy in a system or mlb regular is just ridiculous. Feel free to disagree but its just my belief that if we buy its more likely not going to be one of Bloom’s draftees based on his past moves. Putting aside the lack of logic or any semblance of evidence behind that belief.. if it's not a Bloom guy getting traded, who is it gonna be? Not a lot of DD guys left in the system with any sort of value at this point. And that's not a shot at Dombrowski by any means, it's just been over three years at this point, most of them are either graduated or middling prospects by natural progression.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 17:41:13 GMT -5
Care to expand? I think there are at least three things completely wrong with that statement, but the main one is that by my quick count he’s traded one of his own draftees and only three of DD’s (unless you count major league players as DD’s draftees, which I wouldn’t, and would add another issue I have with your “logic”). This just feels like some pretty massive projection on your part. Dude, I said it’s my belief. Secondly, if you look at the significant guys he has traded away, its pretty clear: Benintendi, Groome, Ramírez. Comparing Marques Johnson, a $125K guy to top 10 prospects is what I’d argue is more of a massive projection. Okay but if your belief isn’t backed up by facts or logic… 1. Aldo Ramirez wasn’t drafted 2. Using guys like Benintendi as an example is completely insane because he’s a major league player with major league value and Bloom doesn’t have any draftees that have debuted yet. Acting like he could just swap out Blaze Jordan for Andrew Benintendi is a ludicrous proposition. I get you’re on record as saying you don’t like Bloom, but this desperation to disparage him at every turn at the expense of basic common sense is not the way lol.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 17:29:47 GMT -5
PLEASE bring back the Baseball Tavern! I need some old timey salty dirt dog bars around the stadium—ones with cigarette smoke-stained pictures of Yaz, Pudge, etc. Its going to come back but its not going to be the same. I think it was part of the real estate deal. Anyway, I saw Groome is now the Padres no. 9 prospect and doing well in AAA. Trading him for Hosmer is another aspect of last year’s deadline that hasn’t aged well. He has an 8.01 ERA lol Based on other discussions, maybe you believe that's "doing well", if so carry on
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 17:26:25 GMT -5
Based on his trades so far. Care to expand? I think there are at least three things completely wrong with that statement, but the main one is that by my quick count he’s traded one of his own draftees and only three of DD’s (unless you count major league players as DD’s draftees, which I wouldn’t, and would add another issue I have with your “logic”). This just feels like some pretty massive projection on your part.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 17:01:26 GMT -5
Yorke is Bloom’s guy. My belief is he is more averse to dealing his own draftees and more apt to deal Dombrowski’s. Based on…?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 16:40:09 GMT -5
Haha yeah that’s been my thought process this entire time, Yorke is the guy I’m on record as being the one I’d sell among that top group but the whole reason the Cards are selling from this group is to eliminate a logjam, so just swapping out pieces that contribute to it isn’t doing much. Eh all three of their guys are pretty versatile and if the rumors are true they’re considering an Arenado trade that opens room too. Plus Yorke is still in AA and if he works out they could trade one of the remaining guys if they wanted. I don’t think they’d be especially disinterested in him compared to anyone else. The Arenado trade is a fair point and I guess if they really loved him they could make it work but I definitely do think they’d be less interested in him relative to their eval compared to other teams
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 16:34:01 GMT -5
FWIW the Cards probably wouldn’t have much interest in a 2B prospect anyway. Haha yeah that’s been my thought process this entire time, Yorke is the guy I’m on record as being the one I’d sell among that top group but the whole reason the Cards are selling from this group is to eliminate a logjam, so just swapping out pieces that contribute to it isn’t doing much.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 15:13:23 GMT -5
Blaze power/arm/field (at first)? Hard no. He's got a 50 or 55 arm, but he's a below-average defender at best. Wasn't Ian just super complimentary of his defense at first in the last pod? Maybe I'm thinking of someone else.
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