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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 14:03:58 GMT -5
Outside of a couple of posters, everyone discussing Rafaela seems to have a similar opinion, but there is a growing number of posters misrepresenting what others are saying which is causing a form of tribalism. Can we all agree on the below? - Rafaela is an exciting prospect who has been very successful both offensively and defensively over the past two years. - Rafaela has a high chase rate which leads to more weak contact and strikeouts than would be expected for a player with his offensive skill set. There are concerns that when he reaches the majors this flaw will be further exploited and lead to him struggling. - If Rafaela can manage a ~90 wRC+ he should become a valuable MLB player due to his defense and baserunning. If his defense is as good as people suggest I'd argue he could be an average or better MLB player with an 80 wRC+ JBJ, 2017-2019: wRC+ - 89, 90, 89 WAR (FG) - 2.4, 3.4, 1.9 I think that is certainly a fair statement.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 14:01:17 GMT -5
I guess the response to that is that not every tool is created equal. He does have 3 plus tools, as you mention. We have his hit tool as potential fringe-average and power as potential average. For my money, I'd almost count a plus hit tool as being worth twice a plus run or field tool. Are there other guys with 3 potential plus tools? Mayer (hit/field/arm/maybe power in a 90th percentile outcome). Bleis potentially (power/run/field/arm). That is probably it at this point. Blaze power/arm/field (at first)?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 10:30:59 GMT -5
Over under for the number of Red Sox trades not including the 2 that already happened for me is 4.5. I will go over! 4.5 is the perfect line if you include the 2 that have already happened imo, but if it’s not then I’m smashing the under (I think 3)
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 10:09:54 GMT -5
Hmmmm, not necessarily. The alternative to that would be improving contact on bad pitches. A more aggressive approach but also a distinct possibility in this case. Not a comp but as an illustration think Vlad Sr. I'm assuming you mean improving quality of contact, and I don't think Rafaela should try to mimic Vladimir Guerrero Sr., a player who was 6'3" and over 230lbs. Something interesting a noticed when looking at Rafaela's AAA data. Found all this from Prospect Live: www.prospectslive.com/2023-aaa-statcast-dataIZ-Contact: 89% OZ-Swing(Chase): 39.6% Whiff: 26.9% Hard-Hit: 44% Zone contact looks great, along with a healthy hard-hit percentage. He's chasing a ton(per usual) and the whiff% is decently below average. I think what's happening is instead of making weak contact on pitches off the plate like he use to, he's just swinging through them. Which may be great thing for him. Imagine a pitcher throws an 0-0 slider off the plate and Rafaela swings. If he makes contact on it, it is most likely weak contact and he's out. If he swings and misses, its only 0-1 and he still has the rest of the at-bat to drive the ball and get on base. I have no idea if this is something that will stick though, could just be a small sample size situation. Which is why I'd still be hesitant to project Rafaela as a consistent above average hitter. Really pulling for him though and is one of my favorite prospects in the system. Yeah consider me HIGHLY skeptical that a coach would look at a guy with a chase problem and say "oh just make better contact on those pitches" as opposed to trying to get him to simply stop swinging at them lol Vlad was amazing but shouldn't be used as any kind of precedent for how to hit
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 27, 2023 21:06:13 GMT -5
Duvall for Song? Lol
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 27, 2023 20:55:49 GMT -5
The idea that the argument against Rafaela is strictly stats-based (even though that’d be enough in my mind) when the scouting community that actually gets, ya know, paid to scout is pretty much in line with those concerns when watching him, is pretty laughable to me. Not sure one fan with time on their hands to watch minor league games and rose colored glasses is really gonna convince me otherwise. Then why did the Red Sox remove the restraints and promote him 3 weeks later. I'll go with the Sox here. What restraints did they remove? They gave up on him attempting to be more selective because it wasn’t taking and promoted him because there was nothing for him to improve that couldn’t also be improved in AAA. Great attempt at spin though.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 27, 2023 20:47:32 GMT -5
The idea that the argument against Rafaela is strictly stats-based (even though that’d be enough in my mind) when the scouting community that actually gets, ya know, paid to scout is pretty much in line with those concerns when watching him, is pretty laughable to me. Not sure one fan with time on their hands to watch minor league games and rose colored glasses is really gonna convince me otherwise.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 27, 2023 20:30:18 GMT -5
I honestly have no clue what people are looking at when they watch Rafaela bat (which assumes they actually watch him bat). My opinion is that the stat guys are in serious denial here and are totally ignoring actual accomplishments since the Sox removed the restraints. It's pretty obvious that the stat guys would rather see him fail than admit they are very wrong here. What “accomplishments” are you referring to that aren’t stats, the very thing you just bashed other people for valuing? It’s not a bad thing to consider context dude, relax.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 27, 2023 16:27:25 GMT -5
MLBTR says ERod is drawing widespread interest from: DBacks Phillies Rangers Rays Reds Im starting to think pitching is just going to be overpriced this deadline. Is it really worth trading serious prospects for a guy who might not even start for us in the playoffs? If there is one team that is in pseudo-contention I think absolutely should NOT be buying, it's the Reds. But to each their own.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 27, 2023 15:33:25 GMT -5
I’d be ok with moving Yorke and a mix of the last 3 for Montgomery. I really don’t think Yorke is a stud as some think given his in-zone miss rate and though Wickelman has been great this year, many still see his a ceiling as a high leverage reliever. I’m not sure there’s a place for Bonaci long term seeing the depth of MIF options and him needed to be protected with this year’s Rule 5. Furthermore, I don’t think Jordan really has a viable path to the big league club given his defensive limitations. Those concerns are all valid but still guaranteeing you’re only getting 2 months of Montgomery for all of them is just too much IMO. Even if you told he Yorke had a 40% chance of sticking, that’s just so much surplus value to give up I'd be very comfortable moving a package like Yorke/Wikelman if that's what it took but not for the Montgomery/Flaherty tier, my hope is that would be enough to get in the conversation for Stroman (not refuting you just adding my two cents). But I, too, am lower on Yorke.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 27, 2023 15:27:01 GMT -5
Late to the party but DeJong would be a nice add at the buzzer if that’s like their last choice but I wouldn’t make him a priority at this point. He’d definitely be an upgrade at least.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 27, 2023 11:31:53 GMT -5
2023 MLB average/2023 Rafaela:BB%: 8.6%/4.4% K%: 22.7%/21.3% ISO: .164/.194 Let's remember that any talk of Rafaela having a strikeout issue, or lacking power are a projection and not the current reality. We should be excited about this guy, even if he ends up as a below average bat. The prolonged efforts by a minority to diminish his success is puzzling. I think you're very drastically misunderstanding the argument you're opposing here. No one is saying not to be excited about him or attempting to diminish his success, merely trying to provide a dose of reality to what has become a pretty unrealistic expectation for his bat by some here. There's a whole lot of room between blind optimism and trying to diminish the guy that you're skipping over.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 27, 2023 11:07:54 GMT -5
Who was a worse washed up free agent signing for the Sox? Corey Kluber or John Smoltz? I almost think Kluber. Not going to try to be a mod here or anything but aside from this just being random and unnecessary complaining for the sake of complaining, how exactly is it related to the trade deadline?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 27, 2023 10:44:35 GMT -5
I mean does something like Houck, Yorke, Dalbec, and Valdez get it done for Cease? Feel like Houck still has a decent amount of value to offer I don't have a good stance on whether or not that gets it done, but I doubt a team would want both Yorke and Valdez in the same return given the obvious redundancies
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 27, 2023 9:11:32 GMT -5
Is there a general expectation for when the draftees will debut? I know many of them are in Ft. Myers already. Follow up question is are all of them expected to start in the FCL, and then select guys (Teel for sure, maybe Tucker and Stebens/some of the other pitchers) move to Salem after a week or so?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 26, 2023 22:29:13 GMT -5
This is probably as good of an example as what Ian was talking about on the pod re: different teams having different opinions on a guy as you can get. Johnson was cited on the pod as having nasty stuff but Llovera is major league ready and has been solid in a minuscule sample this season. So obviously the Giants must see something in Johnson they like whereas this seems like a relatively inconsequential cost for another potential bullpen arm.
I can appreciate that they have a good handful of darts to throw at shoring up the back of the bullpen now, solid work to fill out that depth. Hard to get too excited about anything beyond that with this.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 26, 2023 22:03:40 GMT -5
This is all assuming Rafaela doesn't learn to make better swing decisions or lower his strikeout rate, and doesn't develop above-average power. I think he has a very good chance to do both - in time. But for the sake of this conversation which assumes neither of those things happen, yeah, that's not a recipe for success. I think this is the key - and he seems to be a kid with awareness and work ethic. How unprecedented is it for someone to develop improved/passable discipline over multiple years of development? Others would know better than me. But if he can, he's pretty much the complete package. And if it isn't unprecedented, I like his chances, especially in a utility role. You can use the “he can improve this skill” argument for literally any prospect, though. For it to be reasonable there has to be some kind of sign of improvement or an indicator the improvement is there. Not only has Rafaela seemingly not improve his plate discipline, it seems as if they’d scrapped trying to get him to be more selective as they were when either he admitted or it was reported he was taking pitches for the sake of taking them.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 26, 2023 21:35:15 GMT -5
Two questions as someone who doesn’t pay as much attention to the cap/free agency rules as I’d like to: 1. How possible is it to acquire Stroman and stay under the tax line? 2. If he declines his option for next year could he still be offered a QO and therefore eligible for some kind of compensation if he leaves? You can't offer a QO to a player who was traded for in season. As for the luxury tax aspect, they'd be on the hook for roughly 38 percent of whatever player(s) they trade for. Not sure what stroman gets paid and too lazy to look it up right now. Looks like that’s about 9.5 million which I think is right around the number they have in space, at which point I’d just sweeten the deal with another prospect and get them to eat some money if possible
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 26, 2023 21:22:04 GMT -5
Two questions as someone who doesn’t pay as much attention to the cap/free agency rules as I’d like to:
1. How possible is it to acquire Stroman and stay under the tax line? 2. If he declines his option for next year could he still be offered a QO and therefore eligible for some kind of compensation if he leaves?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 26, 2023 20:54:45 GMT -5
1.5 GB in the WC, and also only 7 GB in the division. “only” being 7 games back when you’re 8 games over .500 is some nasty business
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 26, 2023 20:48:09 GMT -5
Song got roughed up in his final rehab appearance - 1.1IP 5R 3BB 2K 1 HR 11 IP 9R 11BB 15K total in his rehab I'll guess we get him back He will get claimed by the royals or the A’s I’m not super convinced of this anymore. He clearly doesn’t have his stuff back and most teams don’t have the preexisting connection to have like the Phillies did with DD. Not sure it’d be worth it for teams to take on a relief only prospect without even reliever stuff in the hopes that maybe he gets it back in a short window of time. I’m just not really sure he’s all that much of a prospect right now.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 26, 2023 20:46:46 GMT -5
Well, if anyone still wants the sox to sell I'm gonna have to break the bad news. This team ain't selling at the deadline. No shot. We disagree on whether or not they should do it but I think we (and everyone else) would agree at this point Duvall is the only roster player with a shot of getting moved outside of a team randomly wanting Arroyo or something.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 26, 2023 20:44:13 GMT -5
buy buy buy buy buy
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 26, 2023 20:40:52 GMT -5
Extend Wong too!!!
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 26, 2023 20:38:01 GMT -5
In Salem, to boot. Think he should stay there all year but certainly excited to see what he does when he jumps up away from a level that has repeatedly suppressed offensive production
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