SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Feb 22, 2024 7:10:19 GMT -5
best case: -Bello, Pivetta, Gio, Monty all win 15+ games -Whitlock remains healthy and shows his 2022 form -Mata starts to realize his potential out of the pen -Casas builds on year 1 -Grissom plays 150 games like he played 40 games in 2022 -Story is 85% of what he was for the Rockies -Devers is in great shape and healthy -Massa plays a full season like he did the first half os the 2023 season -Duran is healthy for 150 games and plays like he did over 100 games in 2023 -Cedanne plays gg CF -Mayer, Teel, Anthony all stay healthy and all get some time in Boston this season -the front office does not spend foolishly and is primed to have the ability to spend big once the young players are ready to take off pie in the sky? Your pie is even missing a piece: "O'Neill is healthy and flexible and hits, hits for power, and play GG defense."
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Feb 21, 2024 11:35:48 GMT -5
Lineup Best Worst Duran: .295.346.482/ .828 or .250.300.380/.680 Devers: .311.361.555/ .916 or .271.351.500/.851 Story: .251.329.471/ .801 or .238.303.434/.737 Casas: .317.417.617/1.034 or .225.330.398/.728 O'Neill .286.352.560/ .912 or .228.308.392/.700 Yoshida .316.382.492/ .874 or .289.338.425/.763 Grissom .316.388.474/ .862 or .280.313.347/.659 Wong .240.298.400/ .698 or .235.288.385/.673 Abreu .316.388.474/ .862 or .258.331.400/.731edited for clarity (because I like the way the thinking works).
But also, if that's Story's best-case, we're in more trouble than I thought... I hope someone else shows up to hit third, that's for sure.
Thanks for the columns. It was hard to guess for Story because of Coors. Most of these figures are the best and worst a guy has done for a season or half a season, with some guessing thrown in. For Story it seemed silly to picks years when he was 26 or 25 and playing in Coors and finishing 8th or 11 or 12 in MVP. The .251 .329 .471 .801 is his last year at Coors, when the elbow may have been affecting his hitting too. But he did hit 24 HRs that year and steal 20 bases. If Story hits .251 .329 .471 .801 with 20 SBs and GG defense, he'll be a very good player, but as you say not the guy to hit between Devers and Casas, though he is lifetime .299 .372 .601 .973 vs LHP, and .253 .330 .517 .847 in 2022.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Feb 21, 2024 9:14:14 GMT -5
Lineup. Best Worst Duran: .295.346.482/828 or 250.300.380/680 Devers: .311.361.555/916 or .271.351.500/.851 Story: .251.329.471.801 or .238.303.434/.737 Casas: .317.417.617/1.034 or .225 .330.398/.728 O'Neill .286.352.560/.912 or .228.308.392/.700 Yoshida .316.382.492/.874 or .289.338.425/.763 Grissom .316.388.474/.862 or.280.313.347/.659 Wong .240.298.400/698 or .235.288.385/.673 Abreu .316.388.474/.862 or .258.331.400/.731
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Feb 20, 2024 20:13:33 GMT -5
Don't want to detract too much, but the best bullpen belonged to the 2008 Red Sox. You had prime Papelbon, Bard, Okajima, a young and upcoming Manny Delcarmen. They acquired a most likely future HOF in Billy Wagner in August, too. It's a toss up which is the best Sox team to not win a world series between 2003 and 2008. Wagner was in 09. They also had Ramon Ramirez that season, who was pretty damn good IIRC. Feel like Okajima might have been falling off by that point Wagner was only in 15 games but it was a brilliant trade because he brought us two supplemental first round picks when he left (they were duds, alas)
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Feb 19, 2024 9:11:25 GMT -5
TJ in August 2023 means pitching in... August 2024? September? Is he a quick healer? Does this really have any impact on who will be the closer on April 2024? Edit: I see someone has said above he should be back by the trade deadline.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Feb 14, 2024 9:56:06 GMT -5
Here is another one of my periodic reminders about how the punishment that made us have zero regular international signings in 2016-17 also hurt us. In 2018 we signed Bello, as well as Rafaela and a few other guys still in the system. Imagine if we had a couple of guys similar to but 12 months older than Bello and Rafaela. (With the caveat that Ian's study shows that few good pitchers have been Latin American signings lately.) www.soxprospects.com/international21.htm#2016
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Feb 13, 2024 20:51:30 GMT -5
"The Red Sox, according to sources, have kept tabs on Montgomery’s market. But if it does collapse in a way that makes him available on a shorter-term deal, there’s an industry belief that he’d be more likely to head to a team with a better chance to win in 2024 than the Red Sox."
Jordan's wife is doing her one year residency in Boston, so logically you'd think the Sox would have a leg up on a short term deal. Scottie B says Not So Fast, My Friend.
Honestly, this dance is very tiresome now that spring training has already started. Just sign somewhere already dude
I certainly would not bet much on the Red Sox to sign him (although the “kept tabs” line suggests more interest than the zero % some beat writers have basically been saying). That said… who exactly is the contender ready to pounce on Jordan Montgomery when he lowers his asking price? LAD, ATL and HOU don’t need him. NYY traded him previously for a guy in a walking boot. SEA and TOR have pretty robust rotations already. TEX seemingly isn’t comfortable with the financial result of their TV ruling, and have Scherzer, DeGrom, and Mahle coming back their summer to boot. Philly seems like the most likely to say YOLO with Dombrowski, especially if they don’t get a Wheeler extension done. But I’m not sure where else these “industry sources” expect him to go. I forget where I just read this, but with their tax situation, for the Phillies to add $25M to their budget would actually cost them $41 or 44M.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Feb 13, 2024 16:13:42 GMT -5
Not a movie, though some people tried to make a movie, is this Stephen King psychological horror novel: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Girl_Who_Loved_Tom_Gordon?wprov=sfti1I think I used to blame this novel and its curse for Gordon’s serious injury, and that our lives would have been better if it had been The Girl Who Loved Mariano Rivera.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Feb 12, 2024 19:51:17 GMT -5
hi, everything you say is true but I think you’re missing what I was saying: we all know he is better at cf, but Law is saying not only that he’d be better at 2b than SS, but that he has actually been moved from SS to 2b, when the record shows he has played more SS than 2b and has only played a tiny amount of 2b. Disappointed that he didn’t address this when you asked (assuming jimoh and Jim O. are one and the same). Presumably he just avoided it because he realized it was indeed incorrect. yeah that’s me. Weirdly, he doubled down, responding to my question by saying “moving to 2b AND cf”, and so I repeated that he was just wrong, adding the details that that he played zero innings at 2b in milb and 5 9-inning games at SS in mlb but only 11 innings at 2b, despite the Sox’ hole there.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Feb 9, 2024 9:50:31 GMT -5
Interesting new piece on the possibilities for Their and Breslow: "Epstein’s biggest contributions, insofar as the Red Sox are concerned, may well be his knowledge of how the team’s ownership works and thinks. He has the cachet and experience to push back, or perhaps even prod them into action. “It would be silly for me not to pose such questions as, ‘Hey, this is an idea I have. No. 1, what are your thoughts on it? But also, No. 2, what do you think Sam (Kennedy), or John (Henry) or Tom (Werner) or Mike (Gordon) might feel about this?’ " said Breslow. “Often times, he encourages me to just communicate directly with them. ‘Why don’t you ask?’ Which is very often the best advice one can give."" www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/02/mlb-notebook-reunited-with-theo-epstein-craig-breslow-details-how-theyll-work-together.html
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Feb 7, 2024 18:19:23 GMT -5
All these ideas for RHH platoon partners seem good, but there is still the problem of looking at the lineup and putting someone between Devers and Casas who could punish teams that bring in a lhrp in the late innings. Story could grow into that role if he finds himself, but both he and every other choice seems weak.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Feb 7, 2024 6:56:09 GMT -5
Dalbec has about 950 mlb PA. For two brief periods, one about 95 PA and one about 120, he has hit like Jimmie Foxx. The rest of the time, he has hit like a poor backup SS. That doesn't include going 0-12 with 5k and zero BB in the postseason, when we were a few hits away from the World Series. Isn't it time to give up hope? See my previous post ...
But the larger issue is this. The Red Sox literally have an infinitely better set of information on Dalbec's great AAA year than we do, since we have only the rawest data, and know nothing about what he was working on or might have modified or changed.
What we do know is that Sox need a backup 1B / 3B who hits righty, so that the rare off days for Devers and Casas can be against lefty pitchers with a big platoon split. They had an interesting 3B in Urias who could have probably learned 1B and they traded him. They chose not to resign their very good veteran (and clubhouse model). That left one guy for the job. Period.
And since you suddenly seem to be a fan of small samples, the first thing he did upon his his September recall was outhit Devers and Casas for a week. So it's fairly evident that he still has the upside he always has; the difference is an apparent major improvement in staying this last year.
That Dalbec is the backup 1B / 3B is as clear as the starters at those positions.
So one might ask rhetorically, how does this post fit in a thread named "Predicting the 2024 Opening Say Roster?"
I am more than half serious about this: someone should start a thread called "Let's Start Bitching Now!" Those of us with a low tolerance for pointless complaints will be grateful.
Yeah the first thing Dalbec did in September was "outhit Devers and Casas for [5 days]." The second thing he did was get 1 single and 1 walk in his last 21 PA of the year with 14 strikeouts. 14 strikeouts in 21 PA!!! 66% K rate. Similar to how he started the year with two singles and a walk, then in his next 8 games over three call-ups went 0-12 with two walks and 8 strikeouts. 57% K rate over those 14 PA. Yeah it really looks like he figured out how to stop that hot-streak/cold-streak problem. His improvement in 2023 was that at age 28 he had learned how to punish AAA pitching in a hitter's park.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Feb 6, 2024 12:38:59 GMT -5
This comment of Law's seems curious: Rafaela "started his pro career at shortstop and third base, but he’s too inconsistent for short and ended up moving to second, where he’s plus." Inconsistent at short? Has anyone else heard that? "Ended up moving to second," where he's spent the least time, despite a vacancy in mlb? I'd sort of agree with that view, if not the phrasing. On balance, he's still above average there. When you have an excellent defensive outfielder (and second baseman) who is above average at short, that's obviously a value-add, but I'd take Mayer's defense at shortstop over Rafaela's. (I've also never thought he was quite an 80 defender in the outfield, but there's a lot of room to be a worse defender than Bradley and still clearly be an asset.) hi, everything you say is true but I think you’re missing what I was saying: we all know he is better at cf, but Law is saying not only that he’d be better at 2b than SS, but that he has actually been moved from SS to 2b, when the record shows he has played more SS than 2b and has only played a tiny amount of 2b.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Feb 6, 2024 7:50:27 GMT -5
This comment of Law's seems curious: Rafaela "started his pro career at shortstop and third base, but he’s too inconsistent for short and ended up moving to second, where he’s plus." Inconsistent at short? Has anyone else heard that? "Ended up moving to second," where he's spent the least time, despite a vacancy in mlb?
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Feb 3, 2024 10:22:49 GMT -5
Right, John Henry said, yes Craig you must wait one month to trade cash considerations for Heineman. Or we're going to announce that Epstein is a new minority owner and you must wait for him to ok all future decisions. You guys are just throwing teenage angst against a wall at this point. And you're just carrying water for ownership. What's worse? Your point would also carry more weight had Sam Kennedy not said a single word a few weeks back. He said payroll is probably going to be lower. Thats not a Breslow issue. I hate a lot of this back and forth and comments not on baseball but on others' comment, but still: why does Sam Kennedy's comment on payroll have to be prescriptive ("Sox cannot spend") rather the descriptive ("from what I hear, Breslow does not think there are assets out there worth getting close to the cap on")?
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Feb 2, 2024 6:00:08 GMT -5
Being lefty heavy is better than being righty heavy. The platoon advantage is in your favor and you play in the best park in baseball for lefties. No need to overthink it. It doesn’t matter anyway, teams don’t have 9 guys who get 600+ PAs every year, most good teams have three or four, compared to a dozen who get 200+. Even if all of these guys stick, there will be righties available who can come off the bench or take the short side of the platoon. I think the "Too left handed" thing gets way overblown. >70% of the time, a RHP is on the bump. A team can be too right handed, but not so much left. True for starting pitching, but too many LHH is a vulnerability in the late innings. Even right now you need a RHH thumper between Devers and Casas to punish a LHRP brought in to face them, and the need will be greater later. Your first seven batters can’t be Duran, Devers, Anthony, Casas, Yoshida, Mayer, and Teel.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Feb 1, 2024 10:36:08 GMT -5
Dalbec has about 950 mlb PA. For two brief periods, one about 95 PA and one about 120, he has hit like Jimmie Foxx. The rest of the time, he has hit like a poor backup SS. That doesn't include going 0-12 with 5k and zero BB in the postseason, when we were a few hits away from the World Series. Isn't it time to give up hope?
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Jan 27, 2024 15:43:22 GMT -5
I dont necessarily want Merrifield but it's getting to the point where I think he could be had for a season and as a RHH who can play 2nd and OF he could be a good fit. Insurance for grissom and he's probably better than refsnyder as a 5th OF. Refsynder had a .365 OBP last year, .384 the year before.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Jan 24, 2024 20:51:43 GMT -5
If people are in a fighting mood: Ellis Burks was better than Bernie Williams or Jim Rice. Once they let Harold Baines in, the argument for just about everyone got stronger. I’m still trying to figure out why Rice got in and Dwight Evans never did. Two things that hurt Evans are 1) that he solidified people’s image of him as a so-so hitter early in his career before becoming better later (sort of the opposite of Rice), and 2) that he had better second halves than first halves so made fewer all-star teams.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Jan 21, 2024 21:09:57 GMT -5
Whitlock should be in the pen. It’s where he had his best season Pedro Martinez' year as a reliever for the Dodgers was arguably better than his next three years as a starter. After four years, the bullpen was arguably "where he had his best season." Then he took his Great Leap Forward
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Jan 20, 2024 7:00:54 GMT -5
Being a top 10 first base prospect is like being a beauty finalist in a fat girl beauty contest, Still, I have hopes for Blaze to put it all together and be a part of the Sox future. Both Devers and Casas bat left. Really??? Fat shaming??? Those I know are very beautiful. What’s the problem??? Hope to see you soon blaze. Being a top ten first base prospect is like being a beauty contest finalist in a contest between people who make fun of heavy people on the internet.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Jan 19, 2024 6:57:48 GMT -5
Duvall is not schwarber at 1B, he’s played 260 career innings there and grades out well. He’d be perfectly fine as the backup option there. A butcher in the OF like Schwarber is not likely to be good at 1b. A Gold Glove LF is a much better bet to be a competent backup 1b. And the ability to play 1b does not deteriorate faster than the ability to pay corner OF.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Jan 15, 2024 16:41:18 GMT -5
Everyone else has Carrasquel as 6' 4", no?
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Jan 12, 2024 9:55:43 GMT -5
I don't care about the third year. If we don't have enough young stars in 2026 to let them carry an underperforming or even platoon DH, or pay 2/3 of his salary in a trade, it's not going to matter.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
|
Post by jimoh on Jan 10, 2024 7:01:07 GMT -5
I no longer think the Red Sox are going to make any moves other than middling acquisitions. They are going to wait until the trade deadline to trade for young pitching when they will have Mayer, Bleis and Romero healthy and raking, plus some younger prospects shining, and will know whether Grissom is a keeper. 2025.
|
|
|