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Post by zil on Dec 7, 2013 3:25:43 GMT -5
I think Middlebrooks comes back strong next year. I think a lot of his problems were injury related. He slugged .509 in 2012. I bet he outslugs Napoli in 2014 and hits for a better average as well, and is closer on obp than people are expecting. The overall point was that the $16 mil we spent for Napoli would have come in real handy if spread over Rajai Davis, Michael Morse and a back up middle infielder or as a large part of what was needed for Choo, or to sign Beltran. Now we have no money and have to trade someone to even free up some. Even when he was "good" in 2012 Middlebrooks only posted a .325 obp. It's highly unlikely that Middlebrooks magically improves his pitch recognition at the major league level. In contrast, even as a major regression candidate Napoli boasts a .357 career obp. As for the money, they have two pitchers in Peavy and Dempster who should be exceedingly easy to move. Luxury taxes aren't assessed based on your offeason payroll. If we went out and got Tanaka and then flipped Peavy for a B+ prospect, then I'd consider this a pretty fabulous offseason.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 7, 2013 5:00:53 GMT -5
I am hoping for a return to 2012 form for Middlebrooks but even at that I don't expect him to be near the overall hitter Napoli is. Great signing regardless of Middlebrooks and it makes one less hole to deal with.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 7, 2013 8:06:09 GMT -5
God help any baseball fan that was in the jungle with no internet for a week... There's internet in the jungle. But there isn't any on the road between Boise and home. And it probably depends on which jungle.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 7, 2013 8:19:31 GMT -5
He is probably a 25 HR guy going forward with a .260 average at best. My bet is that Middlebrooks puts up better numbers next year. I guess we're ignoring OBP. This nails it. You'll want to take those secondary skills into account, Lavarnway. The one element some posters missed last pre-season was the retrofit of the team, how the FO grafted patience back onto it after the few years it had dissipated. Gomes and Nava were a big part of that and Napoli was huge. The guy works pitchers to death. The narrative of how the 2014 2013 Sox were able to hijack the WS from what were supposed to be better teams, has to include that as a subtext.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 7, 2013 8:32:13 GMT -5
I really hate to quote these since the current level sabermetrics isn't close to the current levels of scouting for projections but here are Bill James projections:
Mike Napoli .348 .819 26 Will Middlebrooks .310 .800 32
OBP/OPS/HR
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 7, 2013 9:17:15 GMT -5
Bradford is saying that the Rangers never made a formal offer to Napoli. So Napoli never had another offer? I am glad the Sox stuck to there offer and didn't get sucked in. I can't stand these reporters sometimes.
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Post by bjb406 on Dec 7, 2013 9:21:48 GMT -5
Now there's another shoe to drop before he's placed on the 40 man. At minimum Lavarnway to our trading buddies the Pirates (assuming they can fit in a 40 man). We still have Stephen Wright on the 40 man for some reason, if they dont make a trade in the short term.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 7, 2013 9:25:55 GMT -5
Now there's another shoe to drop before he's placed on the 40 man. At minimum Lavarnway to our trading buddies the Pirates (assuming they can fit in a 40 man). We still have Stephen Wright on the 40 man for some reason, if they dont make a trade in the short term. Oh sure bring up a 20 page argument between Lavarnway/Wright addicts.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Dec 7, 2013 9:53:29 GMT -5
Given Farrell's comment that 16M is the new 13M, this is the two years from his original contract, adjusted for industry-specific inflation.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 7, 2013 12:36:33 GMT -5
I really hate to quote these since the current level sabermetrics isn't close to the current levels of scouting for projections but here are Bill James projections: Mike Napoli .348 .819 26 Will Middlebrooks .310 .800 32 OBP/OPS/HR I think this helps make my point. The difference between Napoli and Middlebrooks overall is potentially not that much. Middlebrooks was hurt last year and I can't believe he played through the rib injury in particular. Ellsbury was down all season from something similar. I know Beltre body slammed him but Middlebrooks got slammed hard also. Plus overcoming the wrist issue which lots of players have struggled with for over a year, including Papi. My bet is that Middlebrooks comes back strong next year, just as Lackey did this year, which I also projected by the way. Injuries are a huge part of player performance issues. And they don't get factored into the math near enough. A reasonable scenario is that Cechinni might be a contributor by year end and we could have supplemented Carp/Nava with Middlebrooks at 1st and gotten similar production by year end.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 7, 2013 12:39:50 GMT -5
I bet they keep Wright. They may well trade 2 starters. We know they probably will trade at least one and my bet is that they trade one of their AAA starters as well as Dempster or Peavy. I wouldn't be surprised if they trade Doubront either. You could make a case they are selling high there and he's low cost with several years of control making him of substantial value.
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Post by jmei on Dec 7, 2013 13:03:30 GMT -5
I really hate to quote these since the current level sabermetrics isn't close to the current levels of scouting for projections but here are Bill James projections: Mike Napoli .348 .819 26 Will Middlebrooks .310 .800 32 OBP/OPS/HR I think this helps make my point. The difference between Napoli and Middlebrooks overall is potentially not that much. Um, you're underestimating the importance of 38 points of OBP. That's about a win's worth of difference.
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Dec 7, 2013 13:17:44 GMT -5
Very good value deal. Only 2 years which is exactly smart considering his hip condition. Props to Napoli for turning down bigger offers.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Dec 7, 2013 13:22:13 GMT -5
Very good value deal. Only 2 years which is exactly smart considering his hip condition. Props to Napoli for turning down bigger offers. Except, are we sure he had other bonafide, official offers that were larger?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 7, 2013 14:29:05 GMT -5
Very good value deal. Only 2 years which is exactly smart considering his hip condition. Props to Napoli for turning down bigger offers. Except, are we sure he had other bonafide, official offers that were larger? Report was that the Rangers had 3/39 on the table.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 7, 2013 14:47:14 GMT -5
Except, are we sure he had other bonafide, official offers that were larger? Report was that the Rangers had 3/39 on the table. Rob Bradford ?@bradfo 7u Should be noted: According to source, Texas never made formal offer to Napoli
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Post by sammo420 on Dec 7, 2013 14:50:11 GMT -5
God help any baseball fan that was in the jungle with no internet for a week... There's internet in the jungle. I just found out an internet isn't that stuff inside of men's bathing suits.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 7, 2013 15:03:40 GMT -5
Report was that the Rangers had 3/39 on the table. Rob Bradford ?@bradfo 7u Should be noted: According to source, Texas never made formal offer to Napoli Hm. I stand corrected. Thanks.
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Post by colombianrsox on Dec 7, 2013 15:16:54 GMT -5
God help any baseball fan that was in the jungle with no internet for a week... It is sickening to keep waking up in the middle of the night to check if the Sox signed anyone.. It is also stupid to other people to keep reading the same Hot Stove reports day in and day out. The same recycled chronicles. Boy, you never know when you've had enough.. Lol Years ago, I remember when Texeira signed, I kept refreshing the message boards every 10 minutes. Thank God he and her wife were a stiff.. It is impossible for me to travel anywhere in december without internet, and a place without it is discarded. Lol..
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 7, 2013 15:56:01 GMT -5
I think this helps make my point. The difference between Napoli and Middlebrooks overall is potentially not that much. Um, you're underestimating the importance of 38 points of OBP. That's about a win's worth of difference. The other stuff that isn't measurable but very real is pitches scene and the affect that has on the game. We all know one guy doesn't make or break it but with AJ part of the lineup and WMB most likely part of it having a guy like Nap is very important. Even if he Ks it's often a 5-9 pitch AB.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Dec 7, 2013 16:16:36 GMT -5
This is a phenomenal signing for the Red Sox, and kudos to Napoli for not holding out for every last dollar that he might have been able to squeeze on the open market. I had initially thought there would be three years on the deal, but with protection on the hip issue, and it looks like each side might have compromised, Napoli for the third year and the Sox for the injury clause, so a good deal for both sides.
I tend to think the Red Sox are done with "big" moves this off-season, and the team we have now is about what we will see defending the title on Opening Day. Its a good mix of veterans and youth, and Cherington signed those veterans in the two places where there aren't likely young alternatives ready to start the season (C and 1b).
This move also preserves the "deep depth" in essence giving us solid starters, platoons and back up options that can cover each of DH, 1b, LF and in a pinch RF in five players with Ortiz, Napoli, Gomes, Nava and Carp all back. I think the move also makes it less likely that the team brings in a defensive minded outfielder (covering CF and RF), and if Victorino is out a day or two, Nava covers rf. If he's out a week, and the team is at home, up comes Castellanos. This also means, I think, they're going full bore with Bradley Jr in cf, and to me, that is a great thing.
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Post by jmei on Dec 7, 2013 16:59:59 GMT -5
Is there injury protection in Napoli's new contract? I hadn't read that and would appreciate a link!
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 7, 2013 17:03:06 GMT -5
His post infers there isn't.
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Post by jmei on Dec 7, 2013 17:04:24 GMT -5
Ah, I just misread the initial post. Carry on!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 7, 2013 17:18:40 GMT -5
Great re-signing for the Red Sox. Only had to go two years so obviously the Red Sox have a player playing for them who wants to play for them, which is a good thing. Hope he has two more years like the year he had last year. Glad Carp is still there to be his backup.
Lavarnway, you're really missing the boat on the difference the OBP makes and the pitches that it takes to retire Napoli. He strikes out a ton, walks a good deal and makes pitchers throw a ton of pitches to him. He wears pitchers out. By October, Farrell couldn't have impatient WMB hacking away. The one issue that concerns me about the Sox lineup is that there will be WMB and AJP hacking away as Pierzynski runs counter to what the Red Sox offense re-established last year - making the pitcher work and work. Hopefully WMB improves his discipline and or has his lack of discipline somewhat offset by glowing power numbers.
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