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Napoli re-signs for 2/$32mm
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 11, 2013 21:04:53 GMT -5
Napoli has real signs pointing to a potentially serious decline, and I would say that their range of likely outcomes is relatively similar, but Hart wouldn't have cost the additional year, the extra money, or the draft pick (and also had the potential to gain us another pick next year if he has a good year). For me at least, it's not so much a problem with signing Napoli, as it is a problem with the additional cost without much (if any) potential for additional reward. First of all, Hart may be ready for his disappearing act. That is what happens to a lot of right-handed batters in Safeco. Think Adrian Beltre, here, and his lost years. But even if he were playing for the Sox, the notion that they're almost the same player isn't accurate. The fellow some people chided as "fat" when he was acquired last year, turns out to be pretty damned nimble. Hart can't touch his glove, now or in the future given his injuries. His track record at first isn't good. All his metrics are negative. All of Napoli's are positive - by a lot. Hart's injuries also make it questionable if he can ever play a competent right field in Fenway, so he's an outfielder who can't, and a first baseman who probably shouldn't. Don't get me wrong, I think there are legitimate questions about Napoli - the high BABIP coupled with a high strikeout rate. I just don't think Hart is the right answer to those questions.
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 11, 2013 21:20:30 GMT -5
And Hart may not have wanted to sign with Boston. There were reports he strongly preferred to stay closer to family (west coast).
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Post by elguapo on Dec 11, 2013 21:37:09 GMT -5
Hart can't touch his glove, now or in the future given his injuries. His track record at first isn't good. All his metrics are negative. All of Napoli's are positive - by a lot. Hart's injuries also make it questionable if he can ever play a competent right field in Fenway, so he's an outfielder who can't, and a first baseman who probably shouldn't. But we don't really know any of the things you seem to be concluding - Napoli's metrics at first were not favorable before becoming a full time first baseman and Hart only has one season of defensive stats at first and very well could improve too (these points have already been made, as you know), and we don't really know what Hart's physical status is other than that he was cleared to play and appears to be moving well on video. And then there's the draft pick - would you trade Henry Owens, or Pat Light, for Napoli and the contract we signed him at, or go with Hart? Obviously there's a range of outcomes with draft picks! But let's say the value of the pick is $6M - would you have signed Napoli 2x$19 or Hart 1x$6-13? They don't have to be "almost the same player" to pick Hart. And Hart may not have wanted to sign with Boston. There were reports he strongly preferred to stay closer to family (west coast). Sure. And before he signed with Seattle there were reports he strongly preferred to stick with the Brewers. And if he had signed with Boston, or Texas, he would have done it because he strongly preferred to have a good chance to win a World Series. And maybe some of it is true, but who knows?
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Post by jmei on Dec 11, 2013 22:03:04 GMT -5
But we don't really know any of the things you seem to be concluding - Napoli's metrics at first were not favorable before becoming a full time first baseman and Hart only has one season of defensive stats at first and very well could improve too (these points have already been made, as you know), and we don't really know what Hart's physical status is other than that he was cleared to play and appears to be moving well on video. Uncertainty doesn't mean we should ignore these factors altogether. The evidence isn't conclusive, but both scouting reports and every fielding statistic available indicate that Napoli is a much better defender at 1B than Hart. The solution is not to ignore defense altogether, but to heavily regress to league-average, and if we do that, there's probably at least a half-win's difference between the two on defense. We also do know quite a bit about microfracture surgery (which Hart had on both of his knees), and the results aren't glowing. For instance, there's only a 73-83% success rate, and those who return often perform significantly worse than a control group (link in the context of basketball, but that success rate is corroborated elsewhere). In baseball, there are success stories (Victor Martinez had microfracture surgery in 2012 and performed well last year) and tales of woe (Grady Sizemore, Carlos Guillen). At this point, it's too early to lean one way or the other with Hart, but there is certainly significant risk here.
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Post by mainesox on Dec 11, 2013 22:26:56 GMT -5
I'm not trying to downplay the risk of Hart so much as point out that the risk with Napoli is also quite significant. Napoli may well have had the worst year of his career last year if not for his crazy high BABIP, and while some of his peripherals may regress back toward his average offsetting some of the decline in BABIP, it's unlikely that it offsets all (or even most)of the decline, and there's been a pretty clear trend in the peripherals, so there's also a chance they not only don't regress, but continue to decline. And that's not to mention his two dead hips that may still become an issue at any point.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 11, 2013 22:30:55 GMT -5
Napoli has real signs pointing to a potentially serious decline, and I would say that their range of likely outcomes is relatively similar, but Hart wouldn't have cost the additional year, the extra money, or the draft pick (and also had the potential to gain us another pick next year if he has a good year). For me at least, it's not so much a problem with signing Napoli, as it is a problem with the additional cost without much (if any) potential for additional reward. How can you say there isn't any potential for additional reward? Hart hasn't played for a year and is coming off surgery on both knees. There's a chance you get next to nothing for him. I get we are fans and it's fun to construct teams how we think they should be done, but we shouldn't act like BC definitely had the option to get Hart on this deal vs Napoli on his deal. Maybe Hart wouldn't sign until after Napoli signed so his demand was higher. Ben had a good quote today when talking about a backup infielder that applies to any free agent signing: "You can't just pick exactly who you want out of your hat," Cherington said, "so I think we'll try to do the best we can to address that, either now or later, with a guy who we think has the best chance of being the best fit, but it may not [work out]. We don't live in a world where we can just do whatever we want at our speed." Sometimes you need to pull the trigger so you don't get left out. Hart wasn't worth getting in a bidding war over, and it's certainly not worth getting left with someone else besides one of those two. Enough potential risk with Bradley, WMB and Xander( much lessor extent)
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Post by jmei on Dec 11, 2013 23:07:09 GMT -5
I'm not trying to downplay the risk of Hart so much as point out that the risk with Napoli is also quite significant. Napoli may well have had the worst year of his career last year if not for his crazy high BABIP, and while some of his peripherals may regress back toward his average offsetting some of the decline in BABIP, it's unlikely that it offsets all (or even most)of the decline, and there's been a pretty clear trend in the peripherals, so there's also a chance they not only don't regress, but continue to decline. And that's not to mention his two dead hips that may still become an issue at any point. I totally agree that Napoli has his risks too ( worse in-zone contact rate in the league!!!), but it's still hard to see Hart as less risky than Napoli. Hart certainly has the higher injury risk, and his 2014 projection are worse than Napoli's even after you regress Napoli's BABIP. For a team with as many young players penciled into the starting lineup as the 2014 Red Sox, I think it's a good call to pay a premium for a more proven player.
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Post by mainesox on Dec 11, 2013 23:21:15 GMT -5
I'm not trying to downplay the risk of Hart so much as point out that the risk with Napoli is also quite significant. Napoli may well have had the worst year of his career last year if not for his crazy high BABIP, and while some of his peripherals may regress back toward his average offsetting some of the decline in BABIP, it's unlikely that it offsets all (or even most)of the decline, and there's been a pretty clear trend in the peripherals, so there's also a chance they not only don't regress, but continue to decline. And that's not to mention his two dead hips that may still become an issue at any point. I totally agree that Napoli has his risks too ( worse in-zone contact rate in the league!!!), but it's still hard to see Hart as less risky than Napoli. Hart certainly has the higher injury risk, and his 2014 projection are worse than Napoli's even after you regress Napoli's BABIP. For a team with as many young players penciled into the starting lineup as the 2014 Red Sox, I think it's a good call to pay a premium for a more proven player. I get what you're saying, and maybe I'm too worried about Napoli's peripherals catching up to him in the immediate future, but I think he's essentially as much of a risk as Hart, especially with the extra year of control for him to fall apart in. To me Napoli looks like he could be headed for Adam Dunn circa 2011 territory if his peripherals don't do a 180 (he actually had a higher SwStr% and lower contact rate - particularly in the zone - this year than Dunn did in 2011).
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 11, 2013 23:54:23 GMT -5
Napoli reminds me of the Mike Lowell situation. We won the world series. Everyone liked them. So we pay through the nose to bring them back when the money could well have been spent better elsewhere. Our big sign this off season...Mike Napoli....Yawn.
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Post by bigpupp on Dec 12, 2013 0:02:45 GMT -5
Napoli reminds me of the Mike Lowell situation. We won the world series. Everyone liked them. So we pay through the nose to bring them back when the money could well have been spent better elsewhere. Our big sign this off season...Mike Napoli....Yawn. So you would rather have an "exciting" offseason like when we acquired Crawford and Gonzalez?
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 12, 2013 0:15:37 GMT -5
Tanaka would spice up my life quite a bit. I would like them to start there!
I find it hard to believe that going into this off season most of us would be happy where we are right now. But I do see the realism of the escalating market costs coming into play this off season. It may well just be that we couldn't afford what we preferred to do.
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 12, 2013 4:15:34 GMT -5
Napoli reminds me of the Mike Lowell situation. We won the world series. Everyone liked them. So we pay through the nose to bring them back when the money could well have been spent better elsewhere. Our big sign this off season...Mike Napoli....Yawn. Lowell, who had a similar condition, started to break down in his age 34 season. Napoli is not signed for his age 34 season.
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 12, 2013 8:51:32 GMT -5
Tanaka would spice up my life quite a bit. I would like them to start there! I find it hard to believe that going into this off season most of us would be happy where we are right now. But I do see the realism of the escalating market costs coming into play this off season. It may well just be that we couldn't afford what we preferred to do. Tanaka isn't even available at this point and there's serious question that he will be posted this year. I don't think we can downplay chemistry and stability. The Sox had already lost Ells & Salty (maybe they were fine with this) and were likely to lose Drew. They may have found some value in bringing back one of the vets that were big leaders on this team. I think Napoli is one of those guys with tenacity (I think someone brought this up in an earlier thread. With so many young guys likely to be a part of the 2014 Sox, maybe a proven vet is helpful - especially one with the metal toughness and tenacity that proved so integral to the 2014 Sox. There still has to be a financial limit, but 2/$32mill seems like a solid short term risk.
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Post by elguapo on Dec 12, 2013 9:12:29 GMT -5
But we don't really know any of the things you seem to be concluding Uncertainty doesn't mean we should ignore these factors altogether. . Oh, I agree - but the argument for Napoli has to be that he's a whole lot better than Hart, not just marginally. I don't see it (as I mentioned I - we - don't know all the relevant facts), but the market apparently did. Clearly if the BC-risk-aversion thing is accurate, which it seems to be, Napoli's a safer bet than the guy who got a contract with $7M in incentives - although those sometimes work out, as we've seen.
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