SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Trade Jon Lester?
|
Post by artfuldodger on Jul 5, 2014 22:42:22 GMT -5
Given the fact that the A"s could not close the deal for Price, Lester becomes even more valuable. Add in the postseason success, Lester will be able to generate an organizational redefining return.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 5, 2014 22:47:08 GMT -5
Perhaps Baltimore who is battling for the division could be persuaded to part with either Dylan Bundy or Kevin Gausman. With Lester living in GA, you'd think the O's would have a chance to sign Lester long-term. Obviously for Lester you'd need a projectable top of the rotation pitcher or a stud outfielder. Perhaps Baltimore would be in a situation where they'd be very motivated to win this year enough to part with one of their top notch pitching prospects, especially if they considered Lester to be possibly more than a rental. My preference of course is that the Sox re-sign Lester and put an end to this kind of talk. Georgia is pretty far away from Maryland. Baltimore to Atlanta is probably 11 hours driving. They don't have the budget for Lester anyway. True, but it is a lot closer to Georgia than Boston is. You're right that Angelos hates spending big $, so it's unlikely that Baltimore would extend Lester, but I do think that Duquette is more of a win now type of GM so a deal to Baltimore would still be a possibility in that scenario.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
|
Post by nomar on Jul 6, 2014 11:39:37 GMT -5
I think the Cardinals could have interest in Uehara too though. So if it was something like Lester + Uehara, Taveras coming back could be more realistic.
Edmundo Sosa is a great name and I like his contact rates and the fact that he'll stick at SS.
Probably a dream scenario, but Taveras is the exact type of guy we need.
|
|
|
Post by trotsdirtyhat on Jul 6, 2014 12:34:18 GMT -5
I was looking at possible destinations if we end up trading Lester (and it's still a pretty big "if") and I'm not seeing a lot of trading partners. Any contender could use a Jon Lester-type pitching addition, but I think the question is who would be compelled to trade assets for him? There's quite a few successful teams with little-to-no room in their rotation for an addition. The teams that are doing well have solid rotations, which is part of the reason that the Dodgers, Giants, etc. are doing so well in the first place.
So this is my short list of teams I think could realistically make a play for Lester if he is dangled:
Blue Jays Orioles Mariners Angels Cardinals Pirates Dodgers
Of these teams, I think the Angels and Cardinals are the most likely trade partners, however the Mariners may be darkhorses. There's no way we're getting Oscar Taveras, but I'd look into a package built around Stephen Piscotty and Alex Reyes (both top 100-type guys). Consider me intrigued by Piscotty with our outfield issues and all. The Angels situation is frustrating because Lester would be a great fit for them but they lack any interesting (or what I would consider good) position player prospects whatsoever. We could take more pitchers and flip from extreme surplus in the offseason but that takes more foresight than I can muster. As for the Mariners, I'm not sure if D.J. Peterson is available but I'd look into that in trying to get fair value for a half-season of an All-Star ace veteran pitcher with great playoff success.
All of this is speculation, but it's fun to speculate. And with this sorry season I'm looking for fun anywhere I can. (Also this in no way means I'm content/happy to see him go, and I still have some hope that we can re-sign him [say...6/126?] if he stays through the end of the season.)
|
|
|
Post by davestapleton4hof on Jul 6, 2014 18:15:58 GMT -5
Why are you so quick to say Lester for Tavaras deal couldn't get done? I see this similar to the Wil Myers trade. Of course there will be other players involved. While the sample size is still very small, it's not like he is lighting it up.
I do think the Pirates could be a sleeper. They have a ton of OF depth in minors with Austin Meadows, Josh Bell and Harold Ramirez. They could use a veteran ace like Lester to carry the young arms along.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 7, 2014 9:35:11 GMT -5
I think we could get Piscotty from the Cardinals way easier than Taveras. I wonder if we could get Shelby Miller with him as a buy-low candidate?
|
|
|
Post by ctfisher on Jul 7, 2014 9:58:53 GMT -5
If we'd definitely need to get more than piscotty, even if he does look like a pretty promising prospect. I think if we could get him and a solid young arm (one of martinez/wacha/miller/whoever) that's a pretty decent return, but I think you hold out for an elite prospect or try to re-sign Lester. What happens with Price probably dictates what will be done with Lester- if the Rays aren't willing to sell Price yet, Lester will be the best trade option for teams looking for top line starting pitching, and we should be able to get a very good return for him. If Price gets dealt for some absurd package and gets dealt into a tight division race, maybe someone overwhelms us trying to stay competitive. But I still think he's an important piece for the future, and that we're better of keeping him around
|
|
|
Post by bcpatsox18 on Jul 7, 2014 12:48:09 GMT -5
Dodgers want to win this year and have the money to resign him, Red Sox need outfield help, what do you think about this:
To Dodgers: Jon Lester, AJ Pierzynski, Koji Uehara
To Red Sox: Joc Pederson, Julio Urias, Corey Seager
|
|
|
Post by nothingball on Jul 7, 2014 12:59:34 GMT -5
Dodgers want to win this year and have the money to resign him, Red Sox need outfield help, what do you think about this: To Dodgers: Jon Lester, AJ Pierzynski, Koji Uehara To Red Sox: Joc Pederson, Julio Urias, Corey Seager I don't think Lester + Uehara is enough to get Urias alone. That kid is beyond any measure we've really seen for an International Signing. I'd do the trade in a second, i just think that Urias is turning into one of those generational talents. I think KLaw said last year that his raw stuff would PRESENTLY work out of a major league bullpen. It's just a matter of tapping into his considerable talent and providing him consistency that may make him a true ace.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 7, 2014 13:00:43 GMT -5
Dodgers want to win this year and have the money to resign him, Red Sox need outfield help, what do you think about this: To Dodgers: Jon Lester, AJ Pierzynski, Koji Uehara To Red Sox: Joc Pederson, Julio Urias, Corey Seager I think the Red Sox couldn't get one of those three.
|
|
|
Post by sibbysisti on Jul 7, 2014 13:02:42 GMT -5
That's attractive from a Boston point of view. You're asking the Dodgers to give us their top three prospects. But I don't see LA's pitching needs as critical at this point. With Kershaw, Ryu and Greinke on top, with Haren and Beckett having good seasons (Josh with an era under 3), they would not be as motivated to pursue Lester.
If there is an injury between now and July 31, that is another matter.
|
|
|
Post by ctfisher on Jul 7, 2014 13:35:01 GMT -5
I think we could get one of those 3 and maybe a lottery ticket or something, but definitely not all 3. That would be the equivalent of us trading Betts, Owens and Swihart in one deal- really unlikely, and not something you do unless you're getting a legit franchise guy. Haren's slipping though, or at least I've heard he is, and I think Pederson is/should be available, and possibly Seager too, but again, we won't be getting both. I doubt Urias would be included in any trade talks that didn't bring back someone like Stanton or a real game changer. They could definitely use Koji though, and that rotation would be just about unbeatable in a playoff series, so I think they'd definitely be interested in a deal. I think Pittsburgh is probably a more likely trade partner though- I think adding Lester would make them the division favorites, and they might not want to have to pay Price $20m for next year after arbitration. Maybe they take the rental for a shot at the series, and consider re-signing him if they make a real run? They have a deep farm and a need at the top of the rotation, I'm sure a fair deal could be worked out.
|
|
|
Post by taftreign on Jul 7, 2014 13:36:59 GMT -5
Agree. LA has just tracked down SF from a huge lead and their staff is pitching well. I don't see the urgency to make a deal from their point of view. Where as chavo has mentioned the NL Central race where Pittsburgh is coming on strong and the St Louis staff is falling apart of late. I think the urgency is growing with Pittsburgh, St Louis and Cincinnati sitting 1.5, 2, and 3 games out of the WC respectively.
Generally I would still prefer to lock up Lester to a 5 year deal and 115 but if he wants 6 and in the neighborhood of 140 mil or so and the front office is tentative then why not trade him for top dollar. You can then attempt to resign him to an offer in the 6 years and 144 or 150 mil on an overpay from the original targeted figure, trading the extra year and $ for valuable prospects who by the end of the deal are hopefully contributing making up the extra costs on the books. The risk is of course someone is willing to go 7 and 175 and you lose out. Still if you can get some form of higher tier talent and have a chance to resign him without the loss of a draft pick its a win win. I know it doesn't usually work that way however so it's a gamble in deed.
|
|
|
Post by oleary25 on Jul 7, 2014 13:37:15 GMT -5
The Seattle Mariners intrigue me if they were to trade for Lester. Lester is from that area also Mariners are currently in the second wild card spot and could use that solid 1A pitcher to get in/ in the playoffs. Do you think with Danny Hultzen's injury we could pry him away from the Mariners ? Also I like others on here do like Austin Wilson, Peterson. However another name not mentioned on here Jesus Montero could be a nice piece in a deal for Lester. Another team though I don't see a fit would be the Nationals. Some sort of deal centered around either AJ Cole ,Ryan Zimmerman for Lester, Uehara (to shorten the game to Soriano)and prospects. Last but certainly not least the Pirates. Prospects like Josh Bell, or Austin Meadows would be excellent. However Jacoby Jones and Barrett Barnes are interesting as well.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 7, 2014 13:41:29 GMT -5
Regarding the Dodgers, Beckett really doesn't seem to be as good as his results indicate. His FIP- is 108.
|
|
|
Post by bcpatsox18 on Jul 7, 2014 14:02:04 GMT -5
If you look at trades for top pitchers, the market price seems to be 2 top level guys and a lottery ticket, adding AJ at catcher and Uehara to their bullpen make them even stronger and adding Lester going forward to Kershaw and Greinke makes them contenders every year, I don't know if you could pry all three but there is a lot of value going their way in the deal as well. From the Sox point of view they sell off their pieces for the future and gain offense which they really need and gain that ace prospect they lack in their sea of #2's
|
|
|
Post by WindyCityRedSox169 on Jul 7, 2014 14:27:37 GMT -5
If you look at trades for top pitchers, the market price seems to be 2 top level guys and a lottery ticket, adding AJ at catcher and Uehara to their bullpen make them even stronger and adding Lester going forward to Kershaw and Greinke makes them contenders every year, I don't know if you could pry all three but there is a lot of value going their way in the deal as well. From the Sox point of view they sell off their pieces for the future and gain offense which they really need and gain that ace prospect they lack in their sea of #2's The market has shifted towards team control for more than half a season though. The A's got Shark and Hammel for two top prospects but are getting 1.5 years of Shark and .5 of Hammel. If they win it all this year, Billy can dangle Shark to a team and that team would still be able to attach a qualifying offer to him. Unlike in Lester's case where he would be a half season rental and the team trading for him would not get any picks back if he left. I just don't think he gets you what most on here want unfortunately. Maybe taking a high level prospect in the lower minors and hoping he pans out is the best scenario to get a top end prospect (I.E. Bell). Yes it would be nice for the Dodgers to have that rotation but you mention that makes them contenders every year. What you are forgetting with that statement is that they would need to sign Lester for big money. I just don't think that is something they will do and if it is why not wait until the offseason when they don't lose anything?
|
|
|
Post by ctfisher on Jul 7, 2014 15:16:13 GMT -5
Well we don't know exactly how deep the Dodgers pockets are, but everything we've seen from them recently would suggest that they could definitely be interested in re-signing/signing Lester this offseason. It's true that they won't give up much if they do, but they will lose their 1st round pick, and they also wouldn't have Lester down the stretch. I think if they were to deal for Lester, they'd be doing it thinking about this season first and foremost- they can worry about whether or not to re-sign him this offseason. The Pirates make more sense to me, but the Dodgers shouldn't be ruled out- they've been in the Price rumors all year despite a stacked rotation, and Lester will come cheaper than Price, both in terms of money and prospects, if the Dodgers do in fact care at all about how much money they spend. I really hope he's dealt somewhere that he's relatively likely to re-sign though- I can see the yanks offering him an absurd deal this offseason, and I really don't want to see him in pinstripes
|
|
|
Post by bcpatsox18 on Jul 7, 2014 15:29:54 GMT -5
Dodgers haven't had any problem throwing cash around, the benefit to getting him now is that you have half a year to convince him to sign long term and a significant edge to getting him to re-sign, along with helping you win this year.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Jul 7, 2014 15:31:22 GMT -5
As much as we feel that the Dodgers and Red Sox are great trade partners for Lester, everything published seems to point otherwise. Everything I have read points to LAD not considering trading Pederson. Same goes for Urias and Seager.
I do think the Oakland trade boosts Lester's value a bit. Makes some other teams more desperate and removes some options on the trade market. But as pointed out before, you are only getting half a year of control for Lester. Team's have increasingly been against trading away team controlled players for a year rental.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 7, 2014 15:32:04 GMT -5
The Dodgers have said their payroll is not going to be what it is now forever. Which indicates that they have a budget and it's not unlimited.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,330
|
Post by radiohix on Jul 7, 2014 15:51:04 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Jul 7, 2014 16:10:42 GMT -5
Mariners match up with us very well, although I don't think they are going to want to buy aggressively with Oakland in their division. Not sure how much I would want to pay for a wildcard coin flip.
Lester, Uehara, Gomes, and a catcher with cash should all hold positive value to them. Maybe even Drew if you eat his contract.
Toronto and Balitmore match up with us well also. I really wouldn't mind trading within our division if it helps us in 2015.
I am really surprised we don't see more trade speculation surrounding the Red Sox. Unless they go on a 10 game winning starting yesterday they don't have very good odds of being a competitive team.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jul 7, 2014 16:31:58 GMT -5
I think Piscotty is definitely in play for the Cardinals. I think he's the most realistic outfield prospect that might come as part of a Lester trade (along with a lower-level lottery-ticket-type or two). If the front office concedes that it's not re-signing Lester, he's the guy I want them targeting in a trade.
He's more of a low ceiling, high floor kind of prospect, but he's the kind of guy that armchair GMs everywhere underrate because he doesn't have a flashy upside. He's going to hit for average at the next level (scouts put a 70 grade on his hit tool; he combines low strikeout rates with above-average bat speed), which is a skill that gets oddly underrated sometimes considering how important it is (a guy who hits .280 is basically guaranteed to be at least an average hitter). He's also a very solid defender in RF with a strong arm who has a bit of patience and power. That power is his biggest question at the next level, but I think he's got the frame and bat speed to have 15-20 home run upside, especially as he physically matures and continues to refine his plate discipline to hone in on mistake pitches in his wheelhouse.
Even if he doesn't add much power, thought, he's still a virtual lock to be an average-to-better starter in right field for the next six years. A guy who hits .280/.340/.420 with average defense in RF isn't flashy, but that's a tremendously valuable plug-and-play starter, especially when you consider the lack of prospects in the system or long-term solutions in this year's free agent market at the position.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 7, 2014 16:37:23 GMT -5
Piscotty is the most realistic suggestion IMO. I think the Cardinals match up well with us considering they want a starter and have pretty much an unlimited # of prospects. Plus they saw what he can do in the playoffs.
|
|
|