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Trade Jon Lester?
redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 7, 2014 23:15:44 GMT -5
I looked at Piscotty's stat line. I wasn't exactly bowled over. What am I missing? He seems to be a .300 hitter in the minors with so-so power and a not so overly discerning eye at the plate. I wouldn't mind having him, but I wouldn't want him to be the key return in a Jon Lester deal.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 8, 2014 0:01:54 GMT -5
Piscotty was just ranked #49 on BA's top 50 midseason prospects BTW.
I would structure a Lester package around Stephen Piscotty and Carlos Martinez. I think Piscotty will be a solid major league right fielder. If not Martinez, I would seek lower-level guys such as Rob Kaminsky, Alex Reyes or Charlie Tilson.
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Post by malynn19 on Jul 8, 2014 0:46:24 GMT -5
Why are you so quick to say Lester for Tavaras deal couldn't get done? I see this similar to the Wil Myers trade. Of course there will be other players involved. While the sample size is still very small, it's not like he is lighting it up. I do think the Pirates could be a sleeper. They have a ton of OF depth in minors with Austin Meadows, Josh Bell and Harold Ramirez. They could use a veteran ace like Lester to carry the young arms along. Because this is a Red Sox website, if James (BIG GAME??) Shields can fetch Will Myers, why can't Lester who's a better pitcher and so clutch in the playoffs fetch Taveras or Pederson. I am so glad no one here works in the Red Sox FO. Let's see... Mookie, Lester, Middlebrook, Owens and Vazquez for Stanton is that an even trade too? Or maybe we aren't giving them enough? Throw in Barnes and Swihart and maybe that will do it? Let's just build the whole Marlins team for one player. In fact why even have a prospect site when they are not worth anything. Let's trade Owens, Swihart and Mookie for Baez too? I swear you think that after three WS championships with this ownership and sporting a top three Farm System that most Red Sox fans would trust who's running their team and the value their prospects have. I rather keep Lester but if we can't agree then get what you can, and unlike the Rays (who are bluffing because they can't or won't pay Price so they have no choice but to trade him) we can sign Lester so we should be holding the cards.
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Post by jmei on Jul 8, 2014 7:22:05 GMT -5
I looked at Piscotty's stat line. I wasn't exactly bowled over. What am I missing? He seems to be a .300 hitter in the minors with so-so power and a not so overly discerning eye at the plate. I wouldn't mind having him, but I wouldn't want him to be the key return in a Jon Lester deal. He's got the contact ability, bat speed, and lack of platoon splits (he's showed a reverse split across his minor league career) to hit .280-.300+ in the majors, which, as I alluded to, is a vastly underrated skill. Only one hitter who hit above .280+ between 2013-14 was an overall below-average hitter, and that was Alexei Ramirez, who doesn't walk or hit for power. If you hit .280+, you're pretty much a lock to be a 100+ wRC+ hitter. Right fielders are collectively hitting for a 102 wRC+ this year, so that makes Piscotty's floor that of an average right fielder (he's also a solid-average-to-better defender, with average range and a rocket arm). I wouldn't knock that, and Piscotty has All-Star-level upside if he ever taps into the power that his frame and bat speed suggest should be there. Pederson has a higher ceiling, but also a way lower floor (as I discussed here), and I honestly don't see Pederson as that much better of a prospect. My conservative projection of Piscotty would be something like .280/.340/.420, about a 2.5 win player in RF. His upside is something like .300/.360/.480, which would be 4+ win, All-Star-level production (think Matt Holliday or Hunter Pence). He's MLB-ready and fits a position of need for the organization. He ranked the 8th best outfield prospect in baseball on BA's Midseason Top 50 (49th overall) and the 4th best outfield prospect on BP's Midseason Top 50 (30th overall). He's a guy.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 8, 2014 7:43:42 GMT -5
Because this is a Red Sox website, if James (BIG GAME??) Shields can fetch Will Myers, why can't Lester who's a better pitcher and so clutch in the playoffs fetch Taveras or Pederson. I am so glad no one here works in the Red Sox FO. Before you start criticizing posters, you might want to get your facts straight. That will help you become a better poster here. First, Tampa traded Shields and Wade Davis for Myers and Odorizzi. Davis was not just a throw-in. Second and more importantly, they traded for two years of Shields. Whoever trades for Lester gets less than half a season. That's why they got Wil Myers and that's why the Red Sox aren't going to get a top 10 overall prospect back for Lester. Getting two top 50 prospects back (both of which would immediately slot into the major league roster) would be a very good haul. Remember, if they don't trade Lester and they give him a QO and he signs elsewhere, the Red Sox will get a pick in the 28-35 area. So, teams will have to offer more than that.
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Post by malynn19 on Jul 8, 2014 9:43:07 GMT -5
But unlike Tampa Bay we have the finances to resign him, and I believe any team could work out a deal with Lester before a trade or offer him a QO if he bolts so they can get picks for him. Wade Davis, really? Only cause he was in TB doesn't make him good. He is a 5th at best.
And if you think I am criticizing posters, then you don't know Red Sox fans, let me give you a quick story that sums most(not all) Red Sox fans: I have lived in NYankee territory for the past 35+ years, last week I had conversation with some friends and family members(all die hard Yankee fans.) They told me that the Yankees still have a chance to win it all this year, I told them that they are not that good of a team, have no resources (but money) and their ace is out for the year. Well they all said that they believe it can happen. My cousin said, Red Sox fans didn't believe they could win last year and before I can give him a logical answer, three of them, not one or two but three said that Red Sox fans never believe they can win period. I listen to most NY Sports radio when I am not listening to WEEI (I am a Patriots, Bruins, Celtics fan as well) and when you hear the same comments made about Red Sox fans ever since I had my first Fred Lynn glove in 1977 then you should know where I am coming from. That's why the "Why not us?" motto was started by the 2004 Red Sox.
I like this website, I am a very optimistic person even with things I can not control, Yankee and (now) TB fans have a tendency to overhype their prospects while we just want to trade ours or criticize them cause they are not the next Trout or Harper or Verlander.
Yes most Red Sox fans are pessimists, everyone knows this. One thing I took from my night out was that they all envied our system, in fact NY radio fans call in to rave or hate on our system, even my cousin follows our system because he is in love (maybe not) with Owens. He believes (like I do) that he could be the next Cliff Lee, but that's for another time.
I am not going to sugarcoat anything, I follow this team religiously, I believe Devers will be the next big thing at 19 (starting all star at 3b or maybe 1B), I believe Owens will be the next Cliff Lee and Xander will be better than Nomar, and if I am wrong? Oh well, its not like I am predicting the end of the world or hoping to get into heaven, I am just being a fan, most time I want to be logical about it, but for now I just want to dream big.
Sorry for the long post and keep up the good work.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 8, 2014 10:01:56 GMT -5
And if you think I am criticizing posters, then you don't know Red Sox fans, let me give you a quick story that sums most(not all) Red Sox fans: I have lived in NYankee territory for the past 35+ years, last week I had conversation with some friends and family members(all die hard Yankee fans.) They told me that the Yankees still have a chance to win it all this year, I told them that they are not that good of a team, have no resources (but money) and their ace is out for the year. Well they all said that they believe it can happen. My cousin said, Red Sox fans didn't believe they could win last year and before I can give him a logical answer, three of them, not one or two but three said that Red Sox fans never believe they can win period. I listen to most NY Sports radio when I am not listening to WEEI (I am a Patriots, Bruins, Celtics fan as well) and when you hear the same comments made about Red Sox fans ever since I had my first Fred Lynn glove in 1977 then you should know where I am coming from. That's why the "Why not us?" motto was started by the 2004 Red Sox. Sounds quite familiar. I'm a diehard Boston fan and I've been living in the NYC metro area since 1991. And my kids are Red Sox/Patriots sports fans in hostile territory.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 8, 2014 10:38:50 GMT -5
But unlike Tampa Bay we have the finances to resign him, and I believe any team could work out a deal with Lester before a trade or offer him a QO if he bolts so they can get picks for him. Wade Davis, really? Only cause he was in TB doesn't make him good. He is a 5th at best. Any team that gets Lester can't use the QO to get compensatory picks, that changed in the last CBA. That's another part of the better return on Samardizja- not only are the A's getting the 1.5 seasons out of him, but they'll also get picks when he inevitably walks for a bigger deal than the A's can/will give him. It's not like Wade Davis is/was great, but he was still cheap and team controlled for a long time, and a useful arm. Regardless, Taveras is a pipe dream unless Lester decides to sign an extension with the Cards as part of the trade, although if he were to do that, I agree that Taveras should be the starting point for the asking price, even if we have to kick in some cash to pay for part of Lester's extension should that happen
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Post by Steve Henley on Jul 8, 2014 12:42:30 GMT -5
But unlike Tampa Bay we have the finances to resign him, and I believe any team could work out a deal with Lester before a trade or offer him a QO if he bolts so they can get picks for him. Wade Davis, really? Only cause he was in TB doesn't make him good. He is a 5th at best.
Davis is a fantastic reliever and currently has a K/9 over 14. He's also signed to a very team-friendly deal - this was the contract that the Royals traded for: 13:$2.8M, 14:$4.8M, 15:$7M club option, 16:$8M club option, 17:$10M club option ($2.5M buyout) When the Royals traded for him, he was 27 and had just posted a 2.43 ERA over 70.3 IP for the Rays as a reliever. He had also had seasons as a starter with a 4.07 ERA and 4.45 ERA. So basically they traded for a guy who's floor was a 5th starter or a very good 7th/8th inning reliever on a good contract. That's not a throw-in. He's turned into a stud reliever, and the Royals can either keep him to pair with Holland for a shut down pen or trade one of them for another piece.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 8, 2014 12:42:47 GMT -5
If I'm St Louis I'd be more likely to try to center a deal for Lester around a young arm so I can keep both Taveras and Piscotty to plug into the outfield and then try to move Matt Holliday in the off season or next trade deadline to clear cap room for a Lester extension. Now I have a young OF offense who is very cheap and have plenty of other arms to plug in behind Wainwright and Lester. I also get some value in return for Holiday to replenish what I traded for Lester.
Add: If I'm Boston I am targeting a hitter. Lester is the best trade chip to bring back a top 100 potential impact bat.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 11, 2014 14:55:04 GMT -5
I think Seattle would be a natural fit for a Lester-Gomes trade. I'd target DJ Peterson and 1-2 C+/C prospects.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Jul 11, 2014 15:14:31 GMT -5
I think Seattle would be a natural fit for a Lester-Gomes trade. I'd target DJ Peterson and 1-2 C+/C prospects. This actually makes tons of sense. I believe Lester is from the greater Seattle/Washington area as well. I wonder if the Rays selling puts a bit of a wrinkle in the Sox market. They can offer similar assets (Price/Joyce, albeit Joyce is awful against lefties - perhaps Jennings instead) under a longer period of team control. That said, perhaps the M's won't like the price there and something like a Lester/Gomes package becomes more enticing.
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Post by jdb on Jul 11, 2014 15:25:09 GMT -5
I think Seattle would be a natural fit for a Lester-Gomes trade. I'd target DJ Peterson and 1-2 C+/C prospects. I like Gabby Gueraro to. Vlads nephew.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 11, 2014 19:54:38 GMT -5
I think Seattle would be a natural fit for a Lester-Gomes trade. I'd target DJ Peterson and 1-2 C+/C prospects. I like Gabby Gueraro to. Vlads nephew. Who's his dad? We gave $700k about 16 years ago to Julio Cesar Guerrero, said to be Vlad's and Wilton's brother. He hit .200 for four years. He's only 33 now.
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Post by jdb on Jul 12, 2014 9:32:17 GMT -5
Bowden had an article of future games guys who could get traded. insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post?id=9829Gabriel Guerrero, OF, Seattle Mariners 6-foot-3, 192 pounds | Bats: Right; Throws: Right | Age: 20 Stats: .297/.340/431, 9 HRs, 60 RBIs, 14 SBs (high-Class A High Desert) The Mariners are third in the majors in team ERA but just 27th in team OPS. GM Jack Zduriencik knows he must add a bat by the trade deadline, and Guerrero will be a trade target for teams engaged with the Mariners. Guerrero is the nephew of MLB great Vladimir, and there are several similarities between them, including: free swinging in-and-out of the strike zone, a rifle of an arm, above-average speed and an above-average defender. Scouts don't believe he'll be an All-Star, but many do believe he'll be an above-average right fielder and solid player. Either way, he definitely could be a useful trade piece for the Mariners.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 24, 2014 12:29:54 GMT -5
Hello, Ned? Lester, Drew and Breslow for Seager, Chris Reed, Kemp and $40mm
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 24, 2014 13:23:42 GMT -5
Buster Olney ?@buster_ESPN 48s Red Sox losing again; acknowledge Lester talks are over until the winter. Hard to imagine them dealing him before deadline, but… stay tuned.
Buster Olney ?@buster_ESPN 24s If the Rays keep Price, which seems more likely by the day, Lester could be best available SP in the market -- a great seller's market.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 24, 2014 13:39:59 GMT -5
Hello, Ned? Lester, Drew and Breslow for Seager, Chris Reed, Kemp and $40mm Probably would need to at least be Miller instead of Breslow and even then I don't know if that is enough. Seager is someone you keep.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Jul 24, 2014 13:46:59 GMT -5
Buster Olney ?@buster_ESPN 48s Red Sox losing again; acknowledge Lester talks are over until the winter. Hard to imagine them dealing him before deadline, but… stay tuned. Buster Olney ?@buster_ESPN 24s If the Rays keep Price, which seems more likely by the day, Lester could be best available SP in the market -- a great seller's market. If we get plastered by the Rays, I can see this becoming more and more of a possibility. I like the Dodgers proposal. Let them set us up for next year again. Lets hope Ben reads the forums...
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 24, 2014 15:31:24 GMT -5
Why do we want Kemp?
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 24, 2014 15:33:59 GMT -5
I don't think we do... I think part of that trade proposal is taking part of Kemps contract in order to add value on the Dodgers side.
Anyways I can't think of a significant reason why we shouldn't trade Lester.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jul 24, 2014 17:32:17 GMT -5
I've seen suggested the "fans will get mad" excuse. I certainly hope that's not true because then just let the fans run the team.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 24, 2014 17:37:40 GMT -5
Fans will get mad, or fans won't buy tickets?
Either way, there is a cost to educate the market, we basically have about the same chances this year as I do with Erin Andrew, and those chances fall in the theoretical realm. Id rather have a good chance in 2015 than a less than pathetic showing in 2014. See 2012-13 for reference.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 25, 2014 14:05:02 GMT -5
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 25, 2014 14:21:06 GMT -5
Specific to the Dodgers, I've heard it said they absolutely won't move Seager and Pederson in the same deal, even for Price at this stage. If we could get one of those 2, and/or Urias and a lottery ticket or 2, then I would definitely do it. I'm probably dreaming with that package though
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