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9/2-9/4 Red Sox @ Yankees Series Thread
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 3, 2014 10:06:55 GMT -5
Kelly really seemed to be losing his release point from the stretch last night. Looking at his stats on the season I'm wondering if that's something of a trend. His walk rate with runners on base is 14.1%, and with the bases empty it's 7.9%. Compounding matters, he's striking out 18.9% with the bases empty, and 13.3% (yuck) with men on. I don't think it's a mental thing either. I believe he worked from the stretch when he walked Cervelli with the bases loaded, and then switched to the windup and made better pitches when he got the soft liner from Ellsbury, grounder from Jeter and (sorta BS) strikeout of Gardner. So I suppose the questions are whether that discrepancy is noise or an actual problem. And, if it's actually a problem, if it's correctable. In general, this is the type of player I'm happy to see the Sox take a chance on - a flawed player with a major issue that may be fixable and with enough upside to make the troule worth it. The downside here is a complete loss, though - if he can't pitch from the stretch then it's hard to foresee success as a reliever. Why is it that when Kelly throws to a lefty the first pitch seems to be moving so far off the outside edge that no one swings? Seems to me last night every time he throws there he misses the plate so far he loses control for the next pitch and digs deep holes. He needs to throw more pitches closer to or on the plate to be successful and when he gets in those bad stretches it is because he starts way outside every time.
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Post by jmei on Sept 3, 2014 10:12:31 GMT -5
He has the same problem Webster does-- his fastball has such extreme horizontal arm-side movement that it's hard to throw strikes to lefties with.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 3, 2014 10:49:35 GMT -5
The problem has been more extreme this year than it was in 2012 and 2013, though. That makes me think the problem is mechanical and potentially fixable. His walk rate against lefties the previous two seasons was 8.97%. This year it is 13.87%.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 3, 2014 11:02:16 GMT -5
Don't understand the folks getting onto kelly anyway, especially as compared to Webster. kelly may have "some" issues from the stretch, but those are not every game and then every time, or game.
Webster has issues on the mound it seems with his command from both the windup, stretch and his confidence. Something that Kelly does not suffer from. There is a world of difference between the 2.
I hope Webster is not given nearly the amount of rope Middlebrooks was before he is given a failing grade, or there will be an awful lot of "L's" hung on the board from yet another obvious prospect failure that should have been moved, or in this case, kept in the minor leagues to see if something more workable can be done about all those holes in his game.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 3, 2014 11:10:16 GMT -5
Don't understand the folks getting onto kelly anyway, especially as compared to Webster. kelly may have "some" issues from the stretch, but those are not every game and then every time, or game. That's really understating the problem. He's been abjectly awful with runners on base, and that's not a minor thing.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 3, 2014 11:17:04 GMT -5
Something I didn't know, pure paper moves for the majors aren't acceptable: Ranaudo was sent down to Single-A Greenville over the weekend — a temporary move made in order so that the right-hander could be called up as soon as possible. Ranaudo still had to actually report to Greenville, which he did Monday in order to play some catch as the Drive finished off their season.Tim Britton, ProJo A grand discovery. Enlightening. I imagine that if they are optioned and recalled the next day due to an injury that this requirement is waived.
Looks like Ranaudo flew from Tampa to Greenville on Sunday or Monday and then got on another flight to NY.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 3, 2014 11:39:39 GMT -5
We know W/L's aren't important when scouting a player. But, Anthony is 17-4 this year. 14-4 at Pawtucket. 3-0 with the Sox.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 3, 2014 11:45:53 GMT -5
Don't understand the folks getting onto kelly anyway, especially as compared to Webster. kelly may have "some" issues from the stretch, but those are not every game and then every time, or game. That's really understating the problem. He's been abjectly awful with runners on base, and that's not a minor thing. It's interesting because the opposite was true in the past. He was much better with runners on base.
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Post by mgoetze on Sept 3, 2014 12:20:17 GMT -5
Don't understand the folks getting onto kelly anyway, Let me help you out with that. Joe Kelly 2012-2014 FIP-: 110 Joe Kelly 2012-2014 SIERA: 4.25 John Lackey 2013-2014 FIP-: 96 John Lackey 2013-2014 SIERA: 3.55 Any further questions?
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Post by jmei on Sept 3, 2014 12:21:32 GMT -5
That's really understating the problem. He's been abjectly awful with runners on base, and that's not a minor thing. It's interesting because the opposite was true in the past. He was much better with runners on base. He's only been better with runners on base because of an very low BABIP. His walk rate has always been significantly worse with runners on base. I think this low BABIP with runners on base is an unsustainable small sample-related fluke, whereas Eric thinks it's a skill.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Sept 3, 2014 12:38:53 GMT -5
Don't understand the folks getting onto kelly anyway, Let me help you out with that. Joe Kelly 2012-2014 FIP-: 110 Joe Kelly 2012-2014 SIERA: 4.25 John Lackey 2013-2014 FIP-: 96 John Lackey 2013-2014 SIERA: 3.55 Any further questions? I'll take Kelly's age 27, 28, 29, and 30 seasons over John Lackeys age 36 season. That's not to mention Craig (especially if he turns it around). Lackey likely is a #3 next year, and we get Kelly's prime in exchange. He's going to be inexpensive and we call fill the upper rotation slots in free agency. It wasn't highway robbery for us in my opinion, but it was a good trade.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 3, 2014 12:54:22 GMT -5
Don't understand the folks getting onto kelly anyway, Let me help you out with that. Joe Kelly 2012-2014 FIP-: 110 Joe Kelly 2012-2014 SIERA: 4.25 John Lackey 2013-2014 FIP-: 96 John Lackey 2013-2014 SIERA: 3.55 Any further questions? That is really slick there. you must be a political commentator? Comparing a young kid with less than 2y total MLB service time to a 10+y MLB veteran who has some of the best composure on the mound of anyone in the game, bases empty or not? That take much effort to figure out? Give yourself an extra pat on the bat for figuring out Lackey had better numbers there big boy.
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Post by tonyc on Sept 3, 2014 13:23:57 GMT -5
I must be overly mesmirized by "the stuff" of a pitcher- because I liked Joe Kelly last night, and I keep holding out hope someday for Allan Webster and was thorougly unimpressed by Anthony Renaudo in terms of fastball velocity, movement, and command of his curveball and changeup. And yet he got the job done. Is there a trend here- note that Renaudo, Owens and (in his minor league career and two starts before arm injury Juan Pena years ago) all seem to outperform their stuff- and are 6'7", 6'7" and 6'5". Meanwhile Kelly is 6'1"- and for that matter Rubby Delarosa is about 6'0 and in the game before the last had a number of pitches at 99 mph- and yet had no strikeouts. Therefore is the height of the pitcher a bigger factor than we credit in terms of two aspects: 1. creating tilt and therfore a smaller hitting plane and 2. Longer limbs and deception.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 3, 2014 13:43:03 GMT -5
I must be overly mesmirized by "the stuff" of a pitcher- because I liked Joe Kelly last night, and I keep holding out hope someday for Allan Webster and was thorougly unimpressed by Anthony Renaudo in terms of fastball velocity, movement, and command of his curveball and changeup. And yet he got the job done. Is there a trend here- note that Renaudo, Owens and (in his minor league career and two starts before arm injury Juan Pena years ago) all seem to outperform their stuff- and are 6'7", 6'7" and 6'5". Meanwhile Kelly is 6'1"- and for that matter Rubby Delarosa is about 6'0 and in the game before the last had a number of pitches at 99 mph- and yet had no strikeouts. Therefore is the height of the pitcher a bigger factor than we credit in terms of two aspects: 1. creating tilt and therfore a smaller hitting plane and 2. Longer limbs and deception. I am not going to attempt to answer your questions but concur with you that I have a good feeling about Kelly. I can understand that both Kelly & Webster have a lot of arm-side run to their FBs making it difficult to pitch LHs inside. But can't that be corrected? Velocity, movement and location. Kelly sure has two elements. As for height being a factor in strikeouts, old Pedro at 5'11", could certainly fan them with the best. Sandy Koufax was smallish too. OTOH I remember a Sox pitcher in the 60s, Mike Nagy, who was big for that time and supposedly threw hard but never generated a lot of strikeouts...to the puzzlement of the broadcasters. So while I am sure that height and angle of attack help, cats can be skinned any which way (or not).
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Post by redsox4242 on Sept 3, 2014 14:14:19 GMT -5
Lineup:
Holt 3B Betts CF Ortiz DH Cespedes LF Nava RF Craig 1B Bogaerts SS Vazquez C Weeks 2B
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Post by raftsox on Sept 3, 2014 14:30:46 GMT -5
It's interesting because the opposite was true in the past. He was much better with runners on base. He's only been better with runners on base because of an very low BABIP. His walk rate has always been significantly worse with runners on base. I think this low BABIP with runners on base is an unsustainable small sample-related fluke, whereas Eric thinks it's a skill. I tend to agree with you JMEI; BABIP related splits tend to normalize over time for an individual pitcher. The only way to truly determine if it's a repeatable skill is to analyze pitch type frequency with runners on and with bases empty. Perhaps he resorts to specific pitches or locations when there's a runner on that somehow result in worse contact than without runners on. However, that begs the question of why you wouldn't pitch that way the entire time if it's more effective.
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Post by tonyc on Sept 3, 2014 15:27:44 GMT -5
Sarasoxer,
Good to hear someone else who remembers Mike Nagy. As you said, the cats are skinned by multiple factors, so the way I'm viewing it is that a pitcher such as Pedro, or Ruby- whom I like a good deal- will have to have even better stuff than otherwise to compensate for the lack of plane tilt that a taller pitcher has. Too bad the multiple factors involving stuff and command can't be quantified together, otherwise we could commission Eric to do a study on those visa-vis height to prove the point one way or the other.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 3, 2014 15:39:18 GMT -5
Potentially stupid question..Is it possible to throw some 4 seamers along with the 2 seamers? It's an easier pitch to throw for strikes..no?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 3, 2014 16:42:38 GMT -5
Summary of tweets quoting Cherington.
Castillo and JBJ will be here after the playoffs are done but Owens is unlikely. Sox haven't discussed Mookie on the left side of the infield, they like him in CF,2B if they were to look at it, it would be next spring. Middlebrooks is being asked to play winterball, Sox aren't giving him away. Sox haven't decided where Castillo will play after the first Portland series. Sox hope that the bulk of the rotation for next year is here now
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Post by godot on Sept 3, 2014 17:01:35 GMT -5
Interesting quote from Xander on hitting approach. I thought Sox hitters were given mixed messages on this, that is, working the count versus hit your pitch no matter the count, but Hatfield said no. Can't blame him for their present hitting coach said "get a pitch you can hit", which I assume negates working the count, but others have stressed how the Sox want their hitters " to grind "out at bats" , which can be a nice overall strategy but possibly screw up some hitters. Feel that this has been going on with Middlebrooks to some extent. "Thinking" can be dangerous in hitting and screw you up. Regardless, it will be interesting to follow Xander now.
Following Tuesday’s win over the Yankees in which Xander Bogaerts went 4-for-5, the shortstop said he realized that he was taking too many first-pitch fastballs this season.
“I do actually think it’s part of an overall trend in baseball where, for 15 years everyone was seeking out hitters who could draw walks, who could work deep into the count. But there’s the thing: Pitchers are increasingly aware of those numbers. … In that case, and Bogaerts certainly would fit that category, they’re just taking advantage of them. Mike Trout is dealing with the exact same issue right now.
“And more and more what you’re hearing from hitters is: ‘You know what, maybe we should be looking for opportunities to do damage as opposed to working the count, because the best pitch we might see might be that first-pitch cookie fastball.’ I do think you’re going to see an adjustment from hitters big picture going into next year in terms of the approach, because I’ve heard that type of thing from so many guys this year, whether it be hitting coaches or managers or players.”
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Post by jmei on Sept 3, 2014 17:19:20 GMT -5
Interesting quote from Xander on hitting approach. I thought Sox hitters were given mixed messages on this, that is, working the count versus hit your pitch no matter the count, but Hatfield said no. Can't blame him for their present hitting coach said "get a pitch you can hit", which I assume negates working the count, but others have stressed how the Sox want their hitters " to grind "out at bats" , which can be a nice overall strategy but possibly screw up some hitters. Feel that this has been going on with Middlebrooks to some extent. "Thinking" can be dangerous in hitting and screw you up. Regardless, it will be interesting to follow Xander now. Following Tuesday’s win over the Yankees in which Xander Bogaerts went 4-for-5, the shortstop said he realized that he was taking too many first-pitch fastballs this season. “I do actually think it’s part of an overall trend in baseball where, for 15 years everyone was seeking out hitters who could draw walks, who could work deep into the count. But there’s the thing: Pitchers are increasingly aware of those numbers. … In that case, and Bogaerts certainly would fit that category, they’re just taking advantage of them. Mike Trout is dealing with the exact same issue right now. “And more and more what you’re hearing from hitters is: ‘You know what, maybe we should be looking for opportunities to do damage as opposed to working the count, because the best pitch we might see might be that first-pitch cookie fastball.’ I do think you’re going to see an adjustment from hitters big picture going into next year in terms of the approach, because I’ve heard that type of thing from so many guys this year, whether it be hitting coaches or managers or players.” That's not a quote from Bogaerts, it's a quote from Buster Olney talking about Bogaerts: fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/09/03/buster-olney-on-mfb-red-sox-expect-renewed-commitment-from-jackie-bradley-jr-will-middlebrooks/I can't actually find the referenced quote where Bogaerts talks about taking too many first-pitch fastballs. But the Red Sox hitting philosophy has never been discipline for discipline's sake, and they've never taught hitters to never swing at the first pitch. It's always been about selective aggression-- to drive the first pitch you can handle. This ProJo article explains it well, including quotes from Cherington and a host of players: www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20130313-sox-preaching-patient-plate-approach.ece
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Sept 3, 2014 17:45:34 GMT -5
“And more and more what you’re hearing from hitters is: ‘You know what, maybe we should be looking for opportunities to do damage as opposed to working the count, because the best pitch we might see might be that first-pitch cookie fastball.’ I do think you’re going to see an adjustment from hitters big picture going into next year in terms of the approach, because I’ve heard that type of thing from so many guys this year, whether it be hitting coaches or managers or players.” This is exactly what Nomar said years ago when people questioned him swinging at so many first pitches.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 3, 2014 18:18:17 GMT -5
Nomar's batting average cratered when he went from selectively aggressive to overly aggressive. He saw 3.26 pitches per plate appearance in 1998-2000 and 3.08 from 2002-2004.
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Post by godot on Sept 3, 2014 18:27:32 GMT -5
Jmie,it is from Olney, but it is stretching to suggest that he is making it up or misquoted. It follows from he (Xander) said. Hatfield said the same thing as you, but neither of you are consistently there when they instruct hitters (throughout the system). They can say be "selectively aggressive", which is a pompous way of saying get a pitch you can hit, while also suggesting or signalling the grind it our approach. Besides the Sox have been notorious for taking pitches, and the article suggests that they also stress getting the count in your favor. They do talk about getting a pitch you can hit and hitters say they are not going up there looking for a walk, duh. So there is merit in your opinion.
You have to be careful instructing as you can easily give mixed messages or make hitters "think" too much and get confused. Besides much of good hitting is grounded in "second nature" skills acquired early, as well as good processing skills. I am convinced that like organizing much of hitting is not taught but "intuitive", although teaching can refine if done correctly. ( Come across too many people who have read Alinsky and beleive they "know" how to organize. )
James, many will argue that Nomar went downhill after the wrist injury, one that he originally tried to play through. I would reexamine your stats to correlate with the injury. Regardless, the stats by themselves do not "prove" your assertion, especially in light of the injury. You may be reading into it, something we all tend to do.
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Post by jrffam05 on Sept 3, 2014 18:29:17 GMT -5
Gahahahaha. Good thing that wasn't nationally televised.
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