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Post by mgoetze on Apr 19, 2015 14:24:25 GMT -5
What the....?!?
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Post by jmei on Apr 19, 2015 14:25:34 GMT -5
That's on Holt-- Porcello easily beat him to the bag but Brock grossly overestimated his own speed.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,402
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Post by radiohix on Apr 19, 2015 14:27:19 GMT -5
We've been BABIP'd to death those last 2 days!
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Post by jrffam05 on Apr 19, 2015 14:31:00 GMT -5
Lol
I'd love to her Ortiz mic'ed up there.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 19, 2015 14:44:00 GMT -5
That was going foul... picked up too early by Sandoval.
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Post by soxfanatic on Apr 19, 2015 14:46:40 GMT -5
Terrible
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Post by soxfan2015 on Apr 19, 2015 14:58:32 GMT -5
Not sure why Farrell left Porcello in to start that inning
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Post by Guidas on Apr 19, 2015 14:59:03 GMT -5
All we need is a touchdown here and we're back in it.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 19, 2015 14:59:49 GMT -5
Not sure why Farrell left Porcello in to start that inning Because at this point if our BP has to go 4 innings every game our BP will be dead by June
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 19, 2015 15:02:10 GMT -5
Quick...someone give me a stat on how Porcello is actually pitching better than he really is.....Oh....nevermind.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 19, 2015 15:05:59 GMT -5
#MoveHanleyTo3B
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 19, 2015 15:18:48 GMT -5
At least Farrell has found a good use for Breslow.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 19, 2015 15:25:09 GMT -5
We're lucky we didnt get swept honestly.
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Post by xithereon on Apr 19, 2015 15:36:03 GMT -5
I will never understand all the Breslow hate. He was outstanding in 2013 as a key piece of the bullpen on a championship team. He had a bad 2014 and has now given up no runs so far in 2015. I could understand if he was getting lit up this year or if his track record suggested that last year was normal and the previous year an aberration, but in reality last year was one of two bad years in his career with all the others being average to great. Considering the volatility of relief pitchers, that is pretty good. Honestly it sort of reminds me of the people who believe that Bogaerts has no chance of being a good player because he had a huge slump in the middle of last year; of course it was not the optimal scenario, but it does not preclude the player from having a good year this year. Yes, the situations are different in the two cases, but that does not mean it is not the same error that people are making and, in fact, Breslow has a favorable major league track record in his favor where as Bogaerts does not. That is not to say that I think Breslow is a better player or anything absurd like that, but merely that an overemphasis on results from a year ago is absurd, unless there are signs that said results are continuing into the present.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 19, 2015 15:44:27 GMT -5
I will never understand all the Breslow hate. He [...] has now given up no runs so far in 2015. Yeah, you won't understand the Breslow hate without understanding just how terrible small samples of earned runs are at predicting future performance. You see a guy who has given up no runs, and I see a guy who has walked as many as he struck out, which is pretty terrible. Of course his 3K 0BB roday bring that back to averagish, but it's still a small sample, and thus better to trust the projections. The projections say that he is a below replacement level pitcher. Also, look up ericmvan's posts about Breslow's familiarity splits.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 19, 2015 16:04:00 GMT -5
It's true, Porcello did not pitch particularily well today. But, come on, 8 innings of no offense? Disgusting.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 19, 2015 16:34:48 GMT -5
Win tomorrow, split the series and then take it to these guys next weekend in their place.
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Post by xithereon on Apr 19, 2015 16:36:27 GMT -5
I will never understand all the Breslow hate. He [...] has now given up no runs so far in 2015. Yeah, you won't understand the Breslow hate without understanding just how terrible small samples of earned runs are at predicting future performance... I fully understand that small samples of earned runs are not a good predictor of future value, but I also understand that a pitcher can have control issues over a six inning stretch without it determining their future performance. I also understand that his WHIP numbers were not out of line and thus considered that the lowered hit per nine and raised walk per nine numbers were merely artifacts of a small sample size and that to judge them as enough to determine future performance was foolhardy. Please do not attempt to argue based off of assumptions of what I do and do not know; I never stated anything about trying to predict his future performance based off of giving up no runs. I simply stated fact to support my point that he has not thus given us enough information to accurately state how well he is going to do, but he has not yet messed up and his track record suggests that he will be fine. In addition I understand that projections for relievers should generally be taken with a grain of salt as they are generally very volatile year to year (with exceptions such as Mariano Rivera). Also, my point about the lack of runs allowed was simply that he has not failed his job this season thus far (which as a pitcher is to not allow runs to score) and that given the sample size it would be ridiculous to hate on him because he is projected to have done worse. Projections are very useful, but they are far from perfect and I will not judge a player based off of negative projections until they show me that the projections are on target. As it stand last year was his only full year with a below average ERA (I misread the results at first as the other year I saw as below average was actually only his stats with Minnesota before his trade to Oakland in 2009 and not the full year which was actually above average overall). And it should be noted that his FIP and xFIP have consistently been worse than his actual performance for the majority of his career suggesting that he has always outperformed his peripherals outside of a bad year last year. Also, if we want to go with pre season projections then how about the fact that Davenport projected him to be the 9th best pitcher on the Red Sox overall (including starters, closers and other relievers). All that being said, I fully respect your difference of opinion and your comment helped me gain a greater insight into why you hold such an opinion. I saw the same things you saw, but do to reading them differently I did not see how it could properly support your argument, but reading your explanation clears it up for me as it is a simple difference in opinion based off of the statistical evidence provided.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 19, 2015 16:36:38 GMT -5
It's true, Porcello did not pitch particularily well today. But, come on, 8 innings of no offense? Disgusting. 16 innings if you count yesterday.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 19, 2015 17:05:47 GMT -5
And it should be noted that his FIP and xFIP have consistently been worse than his actual performance for the majority of his career suggesting that he has always outperformed his peripherals outside of a bad year last year. Right, but since he has always been a reliever, he only has 466 IP in his career - that's not enough for me to believe this outperformance is anything other than luck, lacking further reasons to believe it might be a skill. I am happy to entertain arguments to the contrary, but only if they contain numbers.
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Post by moonstone2 on Apr 19, 2015 17:23:35 GMT -5
I will never understand all the Breslow hate. He [...] has now given up no runs so far in 2015. Yeah, you won't understand the Breslow hate without understanding just how terrible small samples of earned runs are at predicting future performance. You see a guy who has given up no runs, and I see a guy who has walked as many as he struck out, which is pretty terrible. Of course his 3K 0BB roday bring that back to averagish, but it's still a small sample, and thus better to trust the projections. The projections say that he is a below replacement level pitcher. Also, look up ericmvan's posts about Breslow's familiarity splits. You should never EVER blindly trust projection models. No projection models will ever cover all possible factors and they are only as good as parameters put into them by their creators. Being married to projection models caused the 2008 financial crisis. So no...if there are factors that the projection model is not considering you absolutely should not trust them nor implore others to do so. That is exactly the case with Breslow.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 19, 2015 17:37:54 GMT -5
So no...if there are factors that the projection model is not considering you absolutely should not trust them nor implore others to do so. That is exactly the case with Breslow. Yep, like the familiarity effect that Eric showed which suggests he will be even worse than his projections. Oh and before you trot out your sob story about how Breslow was oh-so-tired after 2013 (because no pitcher has ever managed a workload of 67 IP in a season before) and will be completely rejuvenated after 2014 (54.1 IP being much the same as taking a sabbatical), consider that his velocity thus far this season has almost exactly matched that from 2014, i.e. is still down considerably from 2013.
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Post by moonstone2 on Apr 19, 2015 21:31:37 GMT -5
So no...if there are factors that the projection model is not considering you absolutely should not trust them nor implore others to do so. That is exactly the case with Breslow. Yep, like the familiarity effect that Eric showed which suggests he will be even worse than his projections. Oh and before you trot out your sob story about how Breslow was oh-so-tired after 2013 (because no pitcher has ever managed a workload of 67 IP in a season before) and will be completely rejuvenated after 2014 (54.1 IP being much the same as taking a sabbatical), consider that his velocity thus far this season has almost exactly matched that from 2014, i.e. is still down considerably from 2013. So by sob story you mean explanation of facts. Your insulting tone is very clear. You don't like Breslow and you are unwilling to consider any argument that proves you are wrong. And just so we are clear Eric Van has been very wrong in many of his projections too.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 20, 2015 6:08:37 GMT -5
It's just that not every explanation is automatically a good explanation. If I told you Buchholz' 2nd start was due to the way Pluto and Uranus aligned and it's never going to happen again, you wouldn't believe me either, and rightfully so.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Apr 20, 2015 9:04:19 GMT -5
If we get a game in, here's the line-up.
Betts - CF Pedey - 2b Ortiz - DH Hanley - LF Napoli - 1B Victorino - RF Holt - 3b Bogaerts - SS Hanigan - C
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