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4/27-4/29 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Series Thread
danr
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Post by danr on Apr 29, 2015 10:07:02 GMT -5
I'm beginning to think that if you switch the AAA rotation (Owens, Rodriguez, Johnson, Barnes, and Wright) with the major league rotation (Buchholz, Porcello, Masterson, Miley, Kelly) it would be an improvement. I'm not a big fan of Wright and I don't think Owens is ready yet, but your point is valid. They probably would not be worse.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 29, 2015 10:17:30 GMT -5
@alexspeier: Per @bydavidmurphy, Phillies taking hard look at Red Sox CF Manuel Margot this week as possible Hamels chip t.co/PH6MUflg7a@alexspeier: Cole Hamels rumors are amplifying, but Red Sox still focused on internal fixes, not trades t.co/ansmW6z68W via @bostonglobe
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 29, 2015 10:25:01 GMT -5
@alexspeier: Per @bydavidmurphy, Phillies taking hard look at Red Sox CF Manuel Margot this week as possible Hamels chip t.co/PH6MUflg7a@alexspeier: Cole Hamels rumors are amplifying, but Red Sox still focused on internal fixes, not trades t.co/ansmW6z68W via @bostonglobe Eh. I don't want to lose Margot, but I do understand you have to eventually give up talent to get talent. They have Mookie, Castillo, Hanley, JBJ, and Brentz. It's not the end of the world to give up Margot for Hamels. I just wonder if the deal will be Owens and Margot or if there is a way give them someone like Ball instead since they're at the same level and have a chance to come up together? Margot is a gem of a prospect.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 29, 2015 10:28:11 GMT -5
There are other guys out there we can trade for than Hamels. Dealing with the Phillies doesn't really make a lot of sense anymore. Names please? And unlike Philly, who may be dealing now - not that I think any deals would happen now, - but since you offered, what Hamels-like starters or better are available? Cause I think these guys, or the AAA fodder, are our prom dates until July at the earliest. Johnny Cueto could be available. There are usually several arms available at the deadline, with more reasonable GMs to work with. Amaro really is an awful GM and I honestly don't think its worth giving away blue chippers if we are more than one piece away. I would be content standing pat if there are no reasonable offers and waiting until the offseason to make moves and signings. I view this as a bridge year. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Look at what the Tigers gave up for 1.5 years of Price, or what Oakland gave up for half a year of Lester. Do not give up much more than that this season.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 29, 2015 10:34:09 GMT -5
Clay Buchholz has the 3rd highest BABIP in the MLB at .403. Also has an SIERA under 3.00
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 29, 2015 10:37:51 GMT -5
Names please? And unlike Philly, who may be dealing now - not that I think any deals would happen now, - but since you offered, what Hamels-like starters or better are available? Cause I think these guys, or the AAA fodder, are our prom dates until July at the earliest. Johnny Cueto could be available. There are usually several arms available at the deadline, with more reasonable GMs to work with. Amaro really is an awful GM and I honestly don't think its worth giving away blue chippers if we are more than one piece away. I would be content standing pat if there are no reasonable offers and waiting until the offseason to make moves and signings. I view this as a bridge year. On one hand, no one in their right mind would give up a top pitcher like Cueto until the ASB, unless they are completely blown away. Hamels should be available now. The catch 22 here is, with the Sox rotation the way it is, do they make the move and have 1 guy giving you a good performance while the other 4 continue to be a dumpster fire? Hamels is available now, but the situation is very interesting. The Sox may want to wait until the deadline because it doesn't make any sense to give up any blue chippers if the rest of the team isn't good enough.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 29, 2015 10:41:09 GMT -5
Clay Buchholz has the 3rd highest BABIP in the MLB at .403. Also has an SIERA under 3.00 I understand what you're saying, but Clay has a track record of a half of season of being a dominate pitcher. While luck has been a factor against him, this just feels like "typical Clay Buchholz". He's the only guy who can make me believe in things like intangibles because it just feels so obvious that he's lacking something. I hope the laws of averages do even out and Clay pitches up to his true talent level. It just feels like we'll never get to see how good Clay can be, which is a shame.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 29, 2015 10:43:26 GMT -5
Johnny Cueto could be available. There are usually several arms available at the deadline, with more reasonable GMs to work with. Amaro really is an awful GM and I honestly don't think its worth giving away blue chippers if we are more than one piece away. I would be content standing pat if there are no reasonable offers and waiting until the offseason to make moves and signings. I view this as a bridge year. On one hand, no one in their right mind would give up a top pitcher like Cueto until the ASB, unless they are completely blown away. Hamels should be available now. The catch 22 here is, with the Sox rotation the way it is, do they make the move and have 1 guy giving you a good performance while the other 4 continue to be a dumpster fire? Hamels is available now, but the situation is very interesting. The Sox may want to wait until the deadline because it doesn't make any sense to give up any blue chippers if the rest of the team isn't good enough. Well he is "available" but Ruben Amaro Jr. is still the GM of the Phillies. So you're not getting him without overpaying. Are you okay with that? I'm not and a lot of others on this board aren't either.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 29, 2015 10:52:09 GMT -5
Is there a statistic that measures average batted ball velocity for any given hitter or any given pitcher? This data has been available to teams for quite a few years, via HITf/x, but is not available to the public. Analysts not working for teams hope that this information will become public soon via StatCast, but we're not there yet.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 29, 2015 10:53:51 GMT -5
I've heard enough from front office people (including one stat-loving former assistant Red Sox GM), managers and coaches I've met over the years who've told me they love having at least one hard-assed #2 or better starter on the staff You mean someone with a lot of experience? Like, say, John Lackey?
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nomar
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Posts: 10,842
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Post by nomar on Apr 29, 2015 11:04:00 GMT -5
Clay Buchholz has the 3rd highest BABIP in the MLB at .403. Also has an SIERA under 3.00 I understand what you're saying, but Clay has a track record of a half of season of being a dominate pitcher. While luck has been a factor against him, this just feels like "typical Clay Buchholz". He's the only guy who can make me believe in things like intangibles because it just feels so obvious that he's lacking something. I hope the laws of averages do even out and Clay pitches up to his true talent level. It just feels like we'll never get to see how good Clay can be, which is a shame. I wasn't really trying to say much other than he's far from our biggest concern. I know he's crazy inconsistent/fragile, it's always annoyed me. But his peripherals are the best on the team thus far. Really hope Porcello can give us 7+ innings tonight.
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danr
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Post by danr on Apr 29, 2015 11:47:33 GMT -5
If one were to look at the SP problem the Sox have in the same way one would with a team of under-performing employees, what would be the most effective move?
If you believe in intangibles, and assuming that the entire team can't be jettisoned and they aren't really incompetent, then the most effective move is to get rid of the person on that team who has the most influence on the others, their effective leader, or the one with the most seniority. The second most effective move is to get rid of the worst performer, if that person is different from the first one cut. Generally those still on the team will perform better, sometimes significantly better.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 29, 2015 11:57:28 GMT -5
If one were to look at the SP problem the Sox have in the same way one would with a team of under-performing employees, what would be the most effective move? Get rid of the manager who's causing them to underperform, of course. (But our SPs are not underperforming. They're getting strikeouts like they're supposed to.)
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Post by Guidas on Apr 29, 2015 12:14:56 GMT -5
I've heard enough from front office people (including one stat-loving former assistant Red Sox GM), managers and coaches I've met over the years who've told me they love having at least one hard-assed #2 or better starter on the staff You mean someone with a lot of experience? Like, say, John Lackey? I don't know Mr. Lackey personally but while he has the experience, he doesn't have the cred on the mound anymore (that was the #2 or better part). And hey, just passing along what I've been told.
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Post by jmei on Apr 29, 2015 12:37:44 GMT -5
One thing Ben C got right this off-season thus far (Besides acquiring Ogando and Hanley) was taking Pablo over Headley. I remember getting mocked at the time for that absurd assertion, but so far in SSS: Headley - .234/.289/.364 OPS+ 82 Age 31 Sandoval - .329/.417/.466 OPS+ 147 Age 28 Just more fun stats: Headley - RAA: -3 RAR: 0 WAR 0.0 Sandoval - RAA: 4 RAR: 7 WAR 0.8 ISO is only .07 in Sandoval's favor, so the lack of power is still very real with him. Before I hear about Sandoval having a high BABIP, yes, I know. His BABIP is .379. That's not insanely absurd. It'll probably fall a bit, but he's in a good place. Headley's BABIP is at .296 which is only a tick under from where he was last season Contracts: Sandoval: five years, $95m Headley: four years, $52m Projected 2015 rest of season performance (50/50 ZiPS/Steamer): Sandoval: 118 wRC+, 2.9 WAR Headley: 108 wRC+, 3.2 WAR
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Post by jrffam05 on Apr 29, 2015 12:39:11 GMT -5
2 games out of the division with 141 to play... Manageable.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 29, 2015 12:46:23 GMT -5
From 2007 to 2013, Buchholz had a 3.60 ERA and 4.07 FIP. Since the start of last year (195 innings), he has a 5.38 ERA against a 3.83 FIP. So to say this is always the pitcher he's been just isn't accurate. One reason he's underperformed his peripherals since the start of 2014? With the bases empty in the last two years, opposing batters are hitting .230/.295/.369. With runners on base it balloons to .335/.388/.469.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 29, 2015 13:02:10 GMT -5
... We're at the point where we're wondering who's salvageable. I think Kelly and Porcello, and that's about it. Buchholz, Masterson, and Miley look like fungible pitchers to me. ... Buchholz isn't going to carry a babip north of 400 for the remainder of the season. His biggest problem so far has just been bad luck. Among qualified starters, he's 10th in baseball in xFIP, 10th in SIERA and 16th in FIP. 5 games in and I'm easily more optimistic about him than before the season. I was optimistic that Buchholz could hold a 4-0 lead yesterday. That optimism faded really fast. Good pitching. Darn babip I guess? Or he pitched like crap. I get that the barometer stats point upward, and it's hard for Buchholz to continue to pitch as badly as he has (the reality stats have him pitching a lot worse than the analytic stats), but when all is said and done, I expect Buchholz to be the tease he always has. A guy who gets slammed around a bunch of times, and then when you're ready to dump him, he pitches a gem, and then when you think he finally has it all figured out, he either gets slammed again or injured. That, after all this time, unfortunately, is what Clay Buchholz is.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 29, 2015 13:16:10 GMT -5
One thing Ben C got right this off-season thus far (Besides acquiring Ogando and Hanley) was taking Pablo over Headley. I remember getting mocked at the time for that absurd assertion, but so far in SSS: Headley - .234/.289/.364 OPS+ 82 Age 31 Sandoval - .329/.417/.466 OPS+ 147 Age 28 Just more fun stats: Headley - RAA: -3 RAR: 0 WAR 0.0 Sandoval - RAA: 4 RAR: 7 WAR 0.8 ISO is only .07 in Sandoval's favor, so the lack of power is still very real with him. Before I hear about Sandoval having a high BABIP, yes, I know. His BABIP is .379. That's not insanely absurd. It'll probably fall a bit, but he's in a good place. Headley's BABIP is at .296 which is only a tick under from where he was last season Contracts: Sandoval: five years, $95m Headley: four years, $52m Projected 2015 rest of season performance (50/50 ZiPS/Steamer): Sandoval: 118 wRC+, 2.9 WAR Headley: 108 wRC+, 3.2 WAR I'd really love to know how ZiPs/Steamer projects Headley to be the better player moving forward for the rest of this year when he has way more strike outs in equal opportunities, two fewer walks, and a very small tick under Pablo's ISOP. Pablo has an inflated BABIP, but Headley is right where he should be. I know defense is a real thing, but Sandoval has looked pretty good in the field thus far. Headley - 6BB/21K 83 PA Sandoval - 8BB/13K 84 PA Chase is going to be 31 and will be 34/35 by the end of his contract. Pablo is going to be 29 in August and will be 33/34 by the end of his deal. The AAV isn't that different either: Headley: 13MM AAV Sandoval: $17.833MM AAV The 5 million in savings is an added bullpen arm. Maybe it would be the difference of having Andrew Miller, but I don't expect it to be the difference in having someone like Scherzer.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 29, 2015 13:20:18 GMT -5
From 2007 to 2013, Buchholz had a 3.60 ERA and 4.07 FIP. Since the start of last year (195 innings), he has a 5.38 ERA against a 3.83 FIP. So to say this is always the pitcher he's been just isn't accurate. One reason he's underperformed his peripherals since the start of 2014? With the bases empty in the last two years, opposing batters are hitting .230/.295/.369. With runners on base it balloons to .335/.388/.469. But, do you believe that to be a statistical anomaly or do you believe in the theory that Buchholz lacks "mental toughness" when runners get on. It's pretty staggering how ineffective he becomes as soon as runners get on board.
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art
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Post by art on Apr 29, 2015 13:22:57 GMT -5
Is there a statistic that measures average batted ball velocity for any given hitter or any given pitcher? This data has been available to teams for quite a few years, via HITf/x, but is not available to the public. Analysts not working for teams hope that this information will become public soon via StatCast, but we're not there yet. What's the reason for the secrecy? Unless the teams perceive some advantage, that seems bizarre to me. I don't see where the advantage could be if all teams have this info.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 29, 2015 13:27:09 GMT -5
From 2007 to 2013, Buchholz had a 3.60 ERA and 4.07 FIP. Since the start of last year (195 innings), he has a 5.38 ERA against a 3.83 FIP. So to say this is always the pitcher he's been just isn't accurate. One reason he's underperformed his peripherals since the start of 2014? With the bases empty in the last two years, opposing batters are hitting .230/.295/.369. With runners on base it balloons to .335/.388/.469. But, do you believe that to be a statistical anomaly or do you believe in the theory that Buchholz lacks "mental toughness" when runners get on. It's pretty staggering how ineffective he becomes as soon as runners get on board. Neither. I think it's statistically significant and signals a physical problem, possibly something with his delivery from the stretch. If it's "mental" on any level it could be his seeming constant need to throw over to first base three or four times every at bat whenever someone is there. I don't think that's a question of toughness, though. Misplaced focus perhaps, but that's totally different.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Apr 29, 2015 14:23:06 GMT -5
Mujica has to be the next cut. I had a feeling they were going to cut somebody soon and I thought it would be him. Varvaro was second in my mind. A few more games like the recent ones and the list of potential cuts, or demotions, will grow considerably.
I think they are trying to make Craig worth something to somebody, but it isn't working.
I think there is something physically wrong with Buchholz and I have thought so for a couple of years. His FB velocity has been better this year than it was last year, but it still is not where it was. There isn't enough speed difference among his pitches.
Kelly has a bit of this problem as well, which he more or less admitted the other day when he said he was more successful with his slower stuff. He was throwing too many fastballs and it doesn't matter that they were 99 MPH. Any major league hitter can hit the fastball at any speed if they are pretty certain it is coming and if it is nicely placed over the plate. He was too predictable and he lost some command when he tried to blow them away.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 29, 2015 14:37:02 GMT -5
@jmastrodonato: Farrell shut down the idea of Rusney Castillo joining the Red Sox anytime soon. Said he needs significant at-bats in AAA.
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Post by jmei on Apr 29, 2015 14:37:34 GMT -5
I'd really love to know how ZiPs/Steamer projects Headley to be the better player moving forward for the rest of this year when he has way more strike outs in equal opportunities, two fewer walks, and a very small tick under Pablo's ISOP. Pablo has an inflated BABIP, but Headley is right where he should be. I know defense is a real thing, but Sandoval has looked pretty good in the field thus far. Because the past three years of data matters orders of magnitude more than a player's first three weeks of the season in terms of projecting future results.
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