Contracts: Sandoval: five years, $95m Headley: four years, $52m
Projected 2015 rest of season performance (50/50 ZiPS/Steamer): Sandoval: 118 wRC+, 2.9 WAR Headley: 108 wRC+, 3.2 WAR
I'd really love to know how ZiPs/Steamer projects Headley to be the better player moving forward for the rest of this year when he has way more strike outs in equal opportunities, two fewer walks, and a very small tick under Pablo's ISOP. Pablo has an inflated BABIP, but Headley is right where he should be. I know defense is a real thing, but Sandoval has looked pretty good in the field thus far.
Headley - 6BB/21K 83 PA Sandoval - 8BB/13K 84 PA
Chase is going to be 31 and will be 34/35 by the end of his contract. Pablo is going to be 29 in August and will be 33/34 by the end of his deal.
The AAV isn't that different either: Headley: 13MM AAV Sandoval: $17.833MM AAV
The 5 million in savings is an added bullpen arm. Maybe it would be the difference of having Andrew Miller, but I don't expect it to be the difference in having someone like Scherzer.
Headley didn't want to leave New York, so this is kind of pointless.
“We just lost a World Series game in 18 innings. But after that [meeting], it didn’t feel like we lost. It felt like we won.”
Hanley's hit 9 HR in 78 AB now, or almost 1 every 2 games he's played to date. That's kind of good.
It's "kind of" good in the same way his fielding is "kind of" bad.
Agreed! But in the aggregate I'll take that solution in Fenway's left field. If we can get the normal pop out of some of these other guys, this team leads the majors in HR potentially.
Clay Buchholz has the 3rd highest BABIP in the MLB at .403. Also has an SIERA under 3.00
People keep citing the numbers regarding Buchholz but his inconsistency gets him no friends. Personally, I'm with you regarding Buchholz ( I think ). The numbers indicate he will be fine. The only guys I'm actually concerned about are Miley and Masterson.
I think a case could be made for moving Masterson into the pen at some point soon and bringing up a Rodriguez or Johnson.
It's "kind of" good in the same way his fielding is "kind of" bad.
Agreed! But in the aggregate I'll take that solution in Fenway's left field. If we can get the normal pop out of some of these other guys, this team leads the majors in HR potentially.
If he keeps this up who cares about his defence. But it is bad when he makes manny look good out there.
A few other random thoughts
Buchholz.- he has an injury. Problem is you can't cure a broken mind Miley- one more chance and then it's tired arm time and call up Johnson. Hamels- could we get/do we want paplebon aswell? Ownes/Margot/Miley for hamels/paplebon Craig- RELEASE HIM NOW mujica- see Craig. Mind you he would probably revolutionize with Toronto Porcello- not one bit worried if we don't expect to much. He is what he is. A good number 3 Swihart- how long can we live with Leon /hanigan Betts/Boegarts - not one bit concerned
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 29, 2015 16:04:27 GMT -5
Buchholz issues recently with RISP could also be exascerbated by SSS. I think he has always looked shaky with RISP but historically he has had some pretty strong streaks also. His stuff needs a ton of control, just getting control of that change alone must be difficult. It would make sense that he struggles with that when going to the stretch potentially more. All the mental stuff is over rated to me. More difficulty controlling his significantly reduced stuff and SSS noise. Overall, he has pitched well under pressure. Just being in the majors alone is a ton of pressure. It's physical, reduced stuff and some issues getting it under control. I bet he finishes fairly strong with a decent season.
Post by bookiemetts on Apr 29, 2015 16:18:36 GMT -5
So I came across these 2 articles about BP's new pitching statistic they use to calculate pitcher WAR, called DRA or deserved runs against. www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26195 www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26196 The first one is the more basic explanation, however I wouldn't say its simple. In the conclusion they state that DRA is a very good evaluator of past performance in that it accounts for the results of every plate appearance and controls for team defense, base stealing tendancies, etc. In the second article it shows a plot of DRA and runs allowed per 9, and they are quite close fits for each other, indicating that there is a strong relationship between the two stats. However, here we see the leaderboards for this particular stat: www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1825520
The Sox pitchers are ranked in this order in the MLB: 28: Joe Kelly (3.31) 30: Justin Masterson (3.31) 82: Clay Buchholz (4.34) 93: Wade Miley (4.77) 112: Rick Porcello (5.51)
I know SSS and all, and I don't really know exactly what this stat means from a quick read through of the articles, but it is interesting. I don't really know how it compares to FIP or anything but it would seem that our pitchers have been pretty unlucky.
So I came across these 2 articles about BP's new pitching statistic they use to calculate pitcher WAR, called DRA or deserved runs against.
It might be good, it might be bad ... but it's surely going to be a year or so until it is well enough understood by enough people to be useful as a reference.
And hey, some people still don't use SIERA because it's "too complicated", LOL.
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 29, 2015 17:37:10 GMT -5
In this corner - managed by the New Fake Skool - Rick Porcello - choose any stat that says he is better than he is. In the other corner - managed by Old Real School - Rick MyArmIsJello - 1-2, 6.00+ ERA, 90 million dollar anchor
I'd really love to know how ZiPs/Steamer projects Headley to be the better player moving forward for the rest of this year when he has way more strike outs in equal opportunities, two fewer walks, and a very small tick under Pablo's ISOP. Pablo has an inflated BABIP, but Headley is right where he should be. I know defense is a real thing, but Sandoval has looked pretty good in the field thus far.
Because the past three years of data matters orders of magnitude more than a player's first three weeks of the season in terms of projecting future results.
I guess that makes sense, but does ZiPs/Steamer project differently with Pablo moving to Fenway? Legitimate question.
It is early, but so far the early returns haven't been positive for Headley.