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Royals considering Myers-for-Lester trade
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 28, 2012 8:51:54 GMT -5
Aceves is a mediocre pitcher with average stuff and an attitude problem. His ability to throw multiple innings, several days in a row, makes him a valuable middle reliever/swing man, but he's really nothing more than that (and hopefully he can be that for some other team next year). I must disagree. Aceves has nasty stuff. 4 above average pitchers. Attitude? Sure, but it bubbled over due to an idiotic manager. Lloyd I'm in your camp. The guy was throwing 95-96 with a sharp breaking ball. He did have periods of ineffectiveness that were hard to decipher given his apparent abilities. Maybe some Xanax would help with the strong emotional ups and downs. Serenity now!
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Post by bighead on Nov 28, 2012 8:52:42 GMT -5
I say if you trade Lester then you have more or less conceded the upcoming season. A best case scenario would have been him returning to form under Farrell and leading the staff. The Sox already need a front end starter now and they'd be trading arguably their best away.
Word is KC wants OF help back. Probably because as most suspect they think our side is a little light and also Myer is an OF that they may have needed based on injury or underperformance. I say up the ante since the Sox aren't realistically going to contend in 2012 anyway and add Elsbury to the mix. The Royals seem to want to contend in the near term and Elsbury is a rental. KC would have to toss in more prospects and the Sox may have to send cash back. Load up on young talent, sign a few Vets like Dan Haren to bridge the gap and provide leadership to the younger guys while they experience growing pains. Try to ramp up for two years down the road.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 28, 2012 9:44:19 GMT -5
To keep things in perspective, Clay Buchholz has the best pure stuff on the Red Sox staff, and I'd argue that even he doesn't have four above average pitches. I'm actually in the camp that believes that Aceves could make a pretty useful back end starter because of his durability, but lets not go crazy here.
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Post by lloydbraun on Nov 28, 2012 10:11:47 GMT -5
I must disagree. Aceves has nasty stuff. 4 above average pitchers. Attitude? Sure, but it bubbled over due to an idiotic manager. Can you describe these "four above-average pitches?" I'm curious. You realize that a pitcher with four above-average pitches should be at or near the top of a major league rotation, right? Good heater, cutter, change & curve. You will be impressed after he makes 30+ starts. Wait & see. There is a reason Farrell wants to work with Aceves. And again, $100+ mill for Lester in 2 years is not smart. Sell high now. Start Aceves. Sign a FA. Trade for a SP. It is ONLY the end of November.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 28, 2012 10:22:14 GMT -5
Aceves' curve is the only pitch I'd rate a 65. He can dial up a few extra mph on his fastball, but the harder he throws it, the straighter it goes. It's fringe-average by MLB-pitcher standards. His change-up is a show-me, it can keep hitters off balance knowing that he has it in his arsenal, but he rarely if ever gets outs with it.
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Post by raftsox on Nov 28, 2012 11:03:04 GMT -5
I don't want to turn this into an Aceves thread, but I'll throw some #s at people. Aceves primarily throws 3 fastball varieties: 4 seam, 2 seam and cutter. His 2 offspeed pitches are a Curve and a Changeup. His 2 best seasons, according to FIP, FIP- and WAR are 2009 and 2011. Interestingly enough, neither season is similar in terms of pitch frequency. 2009: FA = 46.7%, FT = 0%, FC = 14%, CU = 19.8%, CH = 18.7%. 2011: FA = 21.4%, FT = 36.2%, FC = 20.5%, CU = 13.7%, CH = 8%. Pitch Velocity comparison: 2009: FA = 90.9, FC = 88.5, CU = 79.6, CH = 82.7. 2011: FA = 92.1, FT = 91.8, FC =89 , CU = 79.7, CH = 84.3. Pitch Value comparison: 2009: FA =-0.2 , FC = 1.0, CU = 3.0, CH = 6.4. 2011: FA = 7.2, FT = 9.8, FC = -0.9, CU = -4.9, CH = 2.6. His 2012 pitch types were similar to 2011, so we can assume he's a "finished product". He also saw significant uptick in velocity to 93.8mph, but it's probably safe to assume that will drop to ~92 if he's made full time starter. However, he drastically changed his FF% to 46.8 and saw a drastic reduction in value of the pitch. Annecdotally, we all saw that his FF was very flat last year. To me, he seems like he's most valuable when changing his pitch type frequently to induce poor contact. I like him as a starter, but I question his ability to last 6+ innings for 33 starts. However, it's probably worth a shot if the team isn't serious about contending in 2013 because it appears that he's best suited to go through a lineup multiple times.
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Post by lloydbraun on Nov 28, 2012 11:24:05 GMT -5
I think this team can compete without Lester. The St Louis model is one I like. They have a bunch of good arms, no traditional ace. Wainwright may be, but they won without him.
Buchholz will be good. Lackey will be a solid 5, worst case. Doubront could/should mature to a solid 3. De la Rosa will help at some point. Morales flashed in 2012. Aceves would add a solid innings eater who gives u a hence to win every 5 days.
That's before we see who they sign and trade for.
Patience.
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Post by nexus on Nov 28, 2012 11:48:49 GMT -5
I think this team can compete without Lester. The St Louis model is one I like. They have a bunch of good arms, no traditional ace. Wainwright may be, but they won without him. The Cardinals have averaged 85.4 wins per season in the weakest division in baseball going back to 2006. Only one 90+ win season (91) over same span. I don't think implementing the same blueprint would be the most prudent move in the AL East.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 28, 2012 12:01:04 GMT -5
A step forward for the pitching staff in general is to get rid of Salty. Pitchers' ERA with him compared to Varitek and even Lavarnway is a joke. The guy cant call a game to save his life.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 28, 2012 12:35:29 GMT -5
This trade makes soooo much sense for the Red Sox.....but you know they can't appear to be conceding the season in the off season because, you know, they can't take criticism that its gonna go their way anyways. 500 for 4Ever please.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 28, 2012 14:04:21 GMT -5
To keep things in perspective, Clay Buchholz has the best pure stuff on the Red Sox staff, and I'd argue that even he doesn't have four above average pitches. I'm actually in the camp that believes that Aceves could make a pretty useful back end starter because of his durability, but lets not go crazy here. I think he meant to say Aceves throws four different types of pitches, but only gets one over for strikes, the other 3 pitches everybody lays off of. It could be the 3 other pitches look above average as they break out of the strike zone.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 28, 2012 14:10:07 GMT -5
A step forward for the pitching staff in general is to get rid of Salty. Pitchers' ERA with him compared to Varitek and even Lavarnway is a joke. The guy cant call a game to save his life. Excellent point! Early in the season, I thought our pitchers were tipping what was coming to the hitters, however now I think the hitters understand how Salty calls a game and Salty is the tipper. I still think Ben moves Salty, hopefully Aceves is part of that deal as well.
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 28, 2012 16:48:06 GMT -5
I think this team can compete without Lester. The St Louis model is one I like. They have a bunch of good arms, no traditional ace. Wainwright may be, but they won without him. Buchholz will be good. Lackey will be a solid 5, worst case. Doubront could/should mature to a solid 3. De la Rosa will help at some point. Morales flashed in 2012. Aceves would add a solid innings eater who gives u a hence to win every 5 days. That's before we see who they sign and trade for. Patience. Once again I find myself mostly in agreement. I am not sold at all with Aceves as a starter tho. It is curious that his velocity has had an uptick. I'm not sure whether that relates to relieving rather than starting, improved mechanics, a growth spurt or a modification of body chemistry. I surely think that we could win without Lester. I don't think it will be this year tho and I am OK with that
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2012 19:13:04 GMT -5
i say yes if we're also talking a pitching prospect. a power hitting outfielder under team control for a long time along with a long locked in pitcher is worth a pitcher who can be great, but is coming off a bad year. if lester is not dealt, i think he will seriously rebound, considering farrell revealed lester's mechanical error. if that pitching prospect is not big league ready, you can sign a low cost pitcher to take his place, such as carlos villanueva or brandon mccarthy.
it also seems that every year, a minor league free agent emerges as a good starter. this past year, you got jose quintana and miguel gonzalez (from the sox unfortunately) if the sox have a good enough scouting department and front office, maybe they can find that one guy.
you also have hernandez, mortensen, wright, aceves, morales, rubby, webster, and britton as internal options.
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Post by ctscott on Nov 28, 2012 20:00:56 GMT -5
I don't think that moving Lester is a sign that the towel is thrown in for 2013. If you get a Myers back and go with him as your starting RF, Brentz is expendable. If Dickey becomes available, a package starting with Brentz & Salty should be a good start.
Dickey & a Dan Haren/E-Jackson move would put the rotation in a good spot to be quite a bit improved over last year (which, admittedly, isn't saying much).
Dickey Buchholz Haren Lackey Doubront
Not great, but not bad either.
I like the lineup (assuming a Swisher or Napoli signing):
Ells, Pedey, Ortiz, Napoli, Myers, WMB, Gomes/Kalish, Lavarnway, Iglesias
I think they can hit enough. It might not be the names that we are accustomed to, but that lineup is competitive top to bottom (sans Iglesias) and has the makings to be a monster lineup when Bogaerts replaces Iglesias in 2014.
Regardless of the ability to pull off a move for Dickey, there's zero chance that I don't pull the trigger to get Myers. Have to make it happen. A 2014 major league core (making the minimum) of Bogaerts, Myers, JBJ, WMB, and Lavarnway (who I still think will produce) makes me feel like Christmas is coming early.
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Post by jmei on Nov 28, 2012 20:24:13 GMT -5
As more time passes, it seems increasingly less likely that this deal goes through either because someone talks some sense into Dayton Moore or because other teams make better offers for Myers.
That said, this is exactly the kind of creative, smart move that Cherington should be looking into whether he wants to properly rebuild or just retool.
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Post by lasershow07 on Nov 28, 2012 21:08:35 GMT -5
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Royals reached out to the Rays and Red Sox and leaked that gesture to the media as an advertising ploy to the rest of MLB they are serious about moving that Myers and he's available at a reasonable price. If you're the Nationals GM would a tandem of Harper and Myers convince you to part ways with Detwiler or maybe even Zimmerman if another quality pitching prospect is coming back? Point being an offer of two expensive years of Shields or Lester could be beaten pretty easily.
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Post by elguapo on Nov 28, 2012 21:13:11 GMT -5
This may not be the ideal time for the Royals to go for it, but how many years can a team perpetually be 3-5 years away from contention before rolling the dice?
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2012 21:15:41 GMT -5
I don't think that moving Lester is a sign that the towel is thrown in for 2013. If you get a Myers back and go with him as your starting RF, Brentz is expendable. If Dickey becomes available, a package starting with Brentz & Salty should be a good start. Dickey & a Dan Haren/E-Jackson move would put the rotation in a good spot to be quite a bit improved over last year (which, admittedly, isn't saying much). Dickey Buchholz Haren Lackey Doubront Not great, but not bad either. I like the lineup (assuming a Swisher or Napoli signing): Ells, Pedey, Ortiz, Napoli, Myers, WMB, Gomes/Kalish, Lavarnway, Iglesias I think they can hit enough. It might not be the names that we are accustomed to, but that lineup is competitive top to bottom (sans Iglesias) and has the makings to be a monster lineup when Bogaerts replaces Iglesias in 2014. Regardless of the ability to pull off a move for Dickey, there's zero chance that I don't pull the trigger to get Myers. Have to make it happen. A 2014 major league core (making the minimum) of Bogaerts, Myers, JBJ, WMB, and Lavarnway (who I still think will produce) makes me feel like Christmas is coming early. dickey is 38. would not trade for him, especially considering he has been pitching in the easiest pitching division in the mlb. i'd rather hang on to brentz and slot him in left. if anything, id trade brentz for a young pitcher. but with ells's likely departure or trade, (love to hang on to him tho) you have brentz in left, kalish in center, and myers in right.
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Post by Don Caballero on Nov 28, 2012 21:24:41 GMT -5
So... We're not getting Myers at all, are we?
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Post by lasershow07 on Nov 28, 2012 21:31:36 GMT -5
This may not be the ideal time for the Royals to go for it, but how many years can a team perpetually be 3-5 years away from contention before rolling the dice? I agree, I'm just not so sure Lester or Shields really amounts to competing, more like outright gambling. Especially when you're talking about giving yourself a two year window. Surely another team is in a better position to offer a quality MLB pitcher and a lesser outfield prospect for Myers. If the Royals can't afford another player without going over budget, there is no way they're retaining either of those guys after two years. I think Dave Cameron's article on Fangraphs really made a good argument against this trade from the Royals' perspective. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wil-myers-and-the-trap-of-filling-a-need/
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 28, 2012 22:07:57 GMT -5
So... We're not getting Myers at all, are we? Nope.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 28, 2012 22:20:30 GMT -5
So... We're not getting Myers at all, are we? I wouldn't hold my breath. No, it's not going to happen, unfortunately.
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 28, 2012 23:38:32 GMT -5
I read nothing into the fact that this trade hasn't yet taken place.
In a few days all the GMs, agents, and some players will congregate in the Nashville Bazaar. All of the groundwork has been done, scouts have given their evaluations, medical reports have been scoured and the bidding will begin.
If the trade hasn't been completed by Dec. 6th the chances of it happening will be diminished.
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Post by welovewally on Nov 29, 2012 4:39:20 GMT -5
I don't see a Lester for Myers trade happening unless it is expanded considerably and we might not like the players leaving in that scenario. But if we could get Myers (without loosing one of our top 5 prospects) to play LF and sign Hamilton to play RF and sign Grienke & Sanchez to Pitch & THEN sign Napoli to Catch & Swisher to play 1B we might have a playoff contender I think.
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