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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 19, 2016 23:44:08 GMT -5
Just a head's up: how Hanley plays (and especially hits) for the rest of the season will have a huge and complex impact on the winter roster changes.
It's hard to imagine the Sox going into next year with both a 1B and a DH who project to be below MLB average, which is the case right now if Sandoval is the DH next year. That would cry out for signing Encarnacion, or trading for a better 1B / DH type.
However, with the desirability of:
A) Maximizing Hanley and/or Sandoval trade value before dumping them B) Having a platoon bat for Shaw on the bench C) Having a path for Moncada to play 3B, with Shaw shifting to 1B
... exactly what you do in the winter becomes complicated. For the time being, I'll leave that as an exercise for the reader*, because the situation where Hanley is a keeper is very different and also somewhat complicated. It's not worth breaking it all down until we have a better idea about Hanley's 2017 worth.
*Except to mention that Encarnacion's numbers at 1B the last two years, in about half a season worth of innings, have been acceptable, a bit less good than Hanley's this year, and there are scenarios where he plays 1B against LHP and Young is the DH. But you have to decide whether that improvement (he used to be bad there) is for real.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 20, 2016 0:20:21 GMT -5
Just a head's up: how Hanley plays (and especially hits) for the rest of the season will have a huge and complex impact on the winter roster changes. It's hard to imagine the Sox going into next year with both a 1B and a DH who project to be below MLB average, which is the case right now if Sandoval is the DH next year. That would cry out for signing Encarnacion, or trading for a better 1B / DH type. However, with the desirability of: A) Maximizing Hanley and/or Sandoval trade value before dumping them B) Having a platoon bat for Shaw on the bench C) Having a path for Moncada to play 3B, with Shaw shifting to 1B ... exactly what you do in the winter becomes complicated. For the time being, I'll leave that as an exercise for the reader*, because the situation where Hanley is a keeper is very different and also somewhat complicated. It's not worth breaking it all down until we have a better idea about Hanley's 2017 worth. *Except to mention that Encarnacion's numbers at 1B the last two years, in about half a season worth of innings, have been acceptable, a bit less good than Hanley's this year, and there are scenarios where he plays 1B against LHP and Young is the DH. But you have to decide whether that improvement (he used to be bad there) is for real. I hope we sign Encarnacion to be our DH and cleanup hitter. Rotate Shaw/Hanley and Buddha at 3b/1b. Maybe pablo shows enough for a team to take on a portion of his salary. Then bring Moncada up to play third. Hanley, Holt, C. Young and our back-up C is a good bench on paper
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Post by dridiot on Jul 20, 2016 0:29:36 GMT -5
I'll leave that as an exercise for the reader* Are you by chance a mathematician?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 20, 2016 9:54:38 GMT -5
Just a head's up: how Hanley plays (and especially hits) for the rest of the season will have a huge and complex impact on the winter roster changes. It's hard to imagine the Sox going into next year with both a 1B and a DH who project to be below MLB average, which is the case right now if Sandoval is the DH next year. That would cry out for signing Encarnacion, or trading for a better 1B / DH type. However, with the desirability of: A) Maximizing Hanley and/or Sandoval trade value before dumping them B) Having a platoon bat for Shaw on the bench C) Having a path for Moncada to play 3B, with Shaw shifting to 1B ... exactly what you do in the winter becomes complicated. For the time being, I'll leave that as an exercise for the reader*, because the situation where Hanley is a keeper is very different and also somewhat complicated. It's not worth breaking it all down until we have a better idea about Hanley's 2017 worth. *Except to mention that Encarnacion's numbers at 1B the last two years, in about half a season worth of innings, have been acceptable, a bit less good than Hanley's this year, and there are scenarios where he plays 1B against LHP and Young is the DH. But you have to decide whether that improvement (he used to be bad there) is for real. I hope we sign Encarnacion to be our DH and cleanup hitter. Rotate Shaw/Hanley and Buddha at 3b/1b. Maybe pablo shows enough for a team to take on a portion of his salary. Then bring Moncada up to play third. Hanley, Holt, C. Young and our back-up C is a good bench on paper Can Hanley still play 3B? They may want to mess around with that in September if he has a strong second half. But it's unclear how valuable he'd be in a bench role, once Moncada is at 3B and Shaw at 1B. Against LHP, which is the better lineup? A) Benintendi LF, Encarnacion 1B, Young DH B) Young LF, Ramirez 1B, Encarnacion DH Since Benny has extremely neutral splits, it's unclear that the offensive upgrade from him to Hanley is larger than the defensive downgrade from him to Young. I'd expect JF to use lineup B since it's simpler, but being platooned unnecessarily won't be good for Benny's development. And would Hanley be happy in a platoon role (especially if JF does the right thing and gives Benny the starts against LHP with small platoon splits)? OTOH, he'd be solid depth for a Moncada struggle, or Shaw or Encarnacion injuries.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jul 20, 2016 10:19:56 GMT -5
I do not think Hanley can or should play 3B. First, I doubt he can. Second, I don't know if it's good for his head. Third, he has remained pretty healthy this year at 1B. His stick is good enough that with the decent defense he's shown, he's not a bad option at first for the next 2 years (pray he doesn't vest for 2019).
Pablo is sunk cost. No way he is ever going to be worth playing at all.
I am not hugely enthusiastic about Encarnacion. He is very good, but he would be starting with Sox at 34 years old, probably at a high price/overly long deal. It only makes sense if all the other holes are addressed and they are pushing for the title next season. I do not want to look like the Yankees in 2018, with old Hanley, old Encarnacion, aging Kimbrel, aging Price etc.
Maybe it would be best to go Yoan at 3B, Shaw at 1B, Hanley at DH. Does Encarnacion add significantly more to the lineup than Yoan could (in theory)?
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jul 20, 2016 10:39:18 GMT -5
I do not think Hanley can or should play 3B. First, I doubt he can. Second, I don't know if it's good for his head. Third, he has remained pretty healthy this year at 1B. His stick is good enough that with the decent defense he's shown, he's not a bad option at first for the next 2 years (pray he doesn't vest for 2019). Pablo is sunk cost. No way he is ever going to be worth playing at all. I am not hugely enthusiastic about Encarnacion. He is very good, but he would be starting with Sox at 34 years old, probably at a high price/overly long deal. It only makes sense if all the other holes are addressed and they are pushing for the title next season. I do not want to look like the Yankees in 2018, with old Hanley, old Encarnacion, aging Kimbrel, aging Price etc.
Maybe it would be best to go Yoan at 3B, Shaw at 1B, Hanley at DH. Does Encarnacion add significantly more to the lineup than Yoan could (in theory)? EE would be the only "old" player @ 36. We really need him to replace Papi's bat. There will be a huge void in that line-up without David. Not sure what he'll command, maybe we can overpay for 3 years @ 3/66 instead of 4/70. DH'ing him should keep him healthy enough for 3 or 4 years. We can't bank on Moncada for 30/100/.300 as we can with Ortiz.
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Post by dmaineah on Jul 20, 2016 11:03:12 GMT -5
EE would be the only "old" player @ 36. We really need him to replace Papi's bat. There will be a huge void in that line-up without David. Not sure what he'll command, maybe we can overpay for 3 years @ 3/66 instead of 4/70. DH'ing him should keep him healthy enough for 3 or 4 years. We can't bank on Moncada for 30/100/.300 as we can with Ortiz. Or anybody else that we could sign or trade for, for that matter.
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Post by digit on Jul 20, 2016 19:18:42 GMT -5
If this is the Hanley we get going forward with him being healthy/recovered from his shoulder injury, I -would- like to see his option vest.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 21, 2016 1:48:30 GMT -5
All hail Hanley. Quite an evening. Hopefully he keeps on roling.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 21, 2016 7:39:32 GMT -5
Pablo is done. He can't even play D anymore.
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Post by Smittyw on Jul 21, 2016 7:45:17 GMT -5
Maybe it's time to stop lumping these two together?
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 21, 2016 8:15:08 GMT -5
I hope we sign Encarnacion to be our DH and cleanup hitter. Rotate Shaw/Hanley and Buddha at 3b/1b. Maybe pablo shows enough for a team to take on a portion of his salary. Then bring Moncada up to play third. Hanley, Holt, C. Young and our back-up C is a good bench on paper Can Hanley still play 3B? They may want to mess around with that in September if he has a strong second half. But it's unclear how valuable he'd be in a bench role, once Moncada is at 3B and Shaw at 1B. Against LHP, which is the better lineup? A) Benintendi LF, Encarnacion 1B, Young DH B) Young LF, Ramirez 1B, Encarnacion DH Since Benny has extremely neutral splits, it's unclear that the offensive upgrade from him to Hanley is larger than the defensive downgrade from him to Young. I'd expect JF to use lineup B since it's simpler, but being platooned unnecessarily won't be good for Benny's development. And would Hanley be happy in a platoon role (especially if JF does the right thing and gives Benny the starts against LHP with small platoon splits)? OTOH, he'd be solid depth for a Moncada struggle, or Shaw or Encarnacion injuries. I wouldn't play Hanley at 3b. I'd play Shaw there and Hanley at 1b when Moncada gets a day off.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 21, 2016 9:59:12 GMT -5
Can Hanley still play 3B? They may want to mess around with that in September if he has a strong second half. But it's unclear how valuable he'd be in a bench role, once Moncada is at 3B and Shaw at 1B. Against LHP, which is the better lineup? A) Benintendi LF, Encarnacion 1B, Young DH B) Young LF, Ramirez 1B, Encarnacion DH Since Benny has extremely neutral splits, it's unclear that the offensive upgrade from him to Hanley is larger than the defensive downgrade from him to Young. I'd expect JF to use lineup B since it's simpler, but being platooned unnecessarily won't be good for Benny's development. And would Hanley be happy in a platoon role (especially if JF does the right thing and gives Benny the starts against LHP with small platoon splits)? OTOH, he'd be solid depth for a Moncada struggle, or Shaw or Encarnacion injuries. I wouldn't play Hanley at 3b. I'd play Shaw there and Hanley at 1b when Moncada gets a day off. The possible need for Hanley at 3B is before Moncada is recalled; it would be Hanley at 3B, Encarnacion or equivalent at 1B, and Young at DH. But that's only in a scenario where you a) obtain a DH / 1B and dump Sandoval in the off-season, with the idea being that Moncada, when he comes up, relegates Hanley to a platoon role, and b) don't fill the last bench spot with a Hill / Rutledge type who can play 3B vs. LHP. Hanley now projects to 2.5 bWAR on the season ... a day ago it was something like 1.6. If he's a keeper, I don't think there's a good argument for signing a DH at all, as long as you think Moncada will be ready before mid-season.
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Post by patford on Jul 21, 2016 10:19:05 GMT -5
It's too early to give up on Sandoval. The shoulder injury might serve as a wake-up. Let's say he shows up in Spring training in the best shape of his life and proceeds to hit and field his position. Question: Is there any doubt he would not instantly become a fan-favorite? Consider how fickle fans are. Hanley has an exceptional game and he's a savior. A week ago there were lots of people saying he was a bum who could not make a simple throw.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Jul 21, 2016 10:34:18 GMT -5
It's too early to give up on Sandoval. The shoulder injury might serve as a wake-up. Let's say he shows up in Spring training in the best shape of his life and proceeds to hit and field his position. Question: Is there any doubt he would not instantly become a fan-favorite? Consider how fickle fans are. Hanley has an exceptional game and he's a savior. A week ago there were lots of people saying he was a bum who could not make a simple throw. I think there is considerable doubt about this within the general fan base. There is more than considerable, possibly overwhelming, doubt within this particular message board community. If he hits and fields well, everyone here will be pleased about that, but there was a lot of opposition to his signing immediately after it occurred.
Just thinking about the fact that this is a prospect site, my thought is most people here would vastly prefer to see Travis Shaw do well rather than have Sandoval turn it around (if you can only have one of those things I mean).
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jul 21, 2016 10:38:42 GMT -5
EE would be the only "old" player @ 36. We really need him to replace Papi's bat. There will be a huge void in that line-up without David. Not sure what he'll command, maybe we can overpay for 3 years @ 3/66 instead of 4/70. DH'ing him should keep him healthy enough for 3 or 4 years. We can't bank on Moncada for 30/100/.300 as we can with Ortiz. Or anybody else that we could sign or trade for, for that matter. Fair point. Though EE is @ 26/86/.266 right now. Probably ends up around 40/120/.270 or so. I'll take that going forward.
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Post by humanbeingbean on Jul 21, 2016 10:57:19 GMT -5
If we could sign Encarnacion, I'd like him at DH, Hanley at first, Moncada winning the 3B job out of spring training, and Shaw relegated to a super-utility (though not as all-encompassing as Brock's) role backing up 3B/1B/LF, getting starts against righties. Essentially, get the most out of Shaw in that way and keep Yoan as our starting 3B. I think the Red Sox should craft next year's team without Sandoval in mind - if he comes back healthy, fine, maybe let him win a job somewhere and somehow. But he shouldn't be obligated to a spot. If anything, maybe Shaw, Holt, and Sandoval could form the top end of a super-bench (akin to the Cubs' great bench). It'd take a lot of mixing and matching for playing time, but I'd much rather see Yoan be given a real shot at starting than Pablo, and I think Shaw could still get a lot of playing time backing up those 3 spots and against righties.
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Post by cto94 on Jul 21, 2016 14:00:54 GMT -5
If we could sign Encarnacion, I'd like him at DH, Hanley at first, Moncada winning the 3B job out of spring training, and Shaw relegated to a super-utility (though not as all-encompassing as Brock's) role backing up 3B/1B/LF, getting starts against righties. Essentially, get the most out of Shaw in that way and keep Yoan as our starting 3B. I think the Red Sox should craft next year's team without Sandoval in mind - if he comes back healthy, fine, maybe let him win a job somewhere and somehow. But he shouldn't be obligated to a spot. If anything, maybe Shaw, Holt, and Sandoval could form the top end of a super-bench (akin to the Cubs' great bench). It'd take a lot of mixing and matching for playing time, but I'd much rather see Yoan be given a real shot at starting than Pablo, and I think Shaw could still get a lot of playing time backing up those 3 spots and against righties. I'd love to see Moncada win the 3B job out of spring training next year, but given that they've said they're keeping him at 2B for the rest of the year (I believe) I doubt that's feasible- he's going to need a good amount of reps in order to make that adjustment, there's a big difference there. If he were ticketed for the outfield I think he could do it, but that wouldn't really make sense, given that Benintendi is likely closer to being major league ready and the presence of Bradley and Betts. That said, in general I love the idea of having both Shaw and Holt on the bench- being able to plug in guys who should provide the production of decent starting players if any of our starters goes down would be incredible, although I'd feel kinda bad for Travis given how well he's played and how much he's exceeded expectations for him. The other thing that I think is being somewhat overlooked in discussing our corner infield is Sam Travis- he was more than holding his own in AAA this year before being hurt and will (hopefully) be knocking on the door when he shakes the injury rust off next year. With Shaw, Travis, Hanley and Sandoval as options for the corners next season, I'm not sure how smart it would be to add Encarnacion at a salary that could easily top $20m a year- we'd have ~$60m a year invested in the combo of Hanley, Sandoval and Encarnacion with cheaper options on hand, and we'd be unlikely to get any kind of decent return on the high salary guys in a deal unless Hanley goes on a second half tear, in which case I'd probably just say keep him and pass on Encarnacion, though I do feel like that guy murders us in Fenway all the time
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 21, 2016 15:29:34 GMT -5
If the Red Sox keep Moncada down until ~6/1 next year to get the extra year out of him, that would leave Hanley, Pablo, Shaw, Holt (assuming Beni is in LF) and a RHH (let's say Hill) to cover 3B, 1B and DH. I don't feel 'great' about that, but I feel OK with it. As long as either Shaw or Pablo can be 'solid' then when Moncada comes up the Red Sox will be in great shape. If by any luck BOTH Shaw and Pablo are good, then Shaw gets traded for pitching before the deadline (even if Pablo is above average he will still have negative value next year - unlikely to be traded).
Either way, there should be enough bats around to rest Hanley and create a good rotation/platoon.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jul 21, 2016 15:54:56 GMT -5
I'd love to see Moncada win the 3B job out of spring training next year, but given that they've said they're keeping him at 2B for the rest of the year The other thing that I think is being somewhat overlooked in discussing our corner infield is Sam Travis- he was more than holding his own in AAA this year before being hurt and will (hopefully) be knocking on the door when he shakes the injury rust off next year. a) is this true about Moncada? I am not arguing, I just didn't know this is the case. I don't get it. 2B is obviously not where is going to play for the Sox. Is it to keep him comfortable in the field so he can focus more on hitting? I guess I see that. But I think it is universally acknowledged that he will be on the field for the Sox sometime next year (or sooner) and at some place other than 2B (unless something catastrophic happens to Peddy). b) Travis was doing fine, but not so well that I count him as in the mix, especially coming back from a serious injury and lost time. If he pans out, great. But I think it is best to plan without him. c) this means at this moment the roster provides the Sox with Shaw at 3B, Hanley at 1B, Holt at utility, no real DH, and as I see it, you can save a lot of money not signing EE by moving Moncada to 3B now, starting him there, Shaw at 1B, Hanley at DH next year. Then use FA money to rebuild pen, etc. Pablo is sunk cost.
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Post by jmei on Jul 21, 2016 15:58:43 GMT -5
It makes sense to give a player the benefit of having fall league/winter ball/spring training to get prepared for moving to a new position rather than shunting him there midseason.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 21, 2016 19:37:55 GMT -5
Maybe it's time to stop lumping these two together? This. Hanley may never earn $22M a year with his play. But just the fact that he is literally willing to do whatever he has to, to try to help the team win is endearing. Hanley may have been historically bad at LF. But the fact that he was willing to do it to try to help the team and then switch to another brand new position he has never played this year all in the name of trying to win? I love it. He can be frustrating at times. But he's passionate. Compare that Sandoval who is fat and refuses to do anything about it. Doesn't think it is an issue and really doesn't seem to even give a damn about the baseball. He even said he doesn't care if he wins, after all it's "just baseball." These two couldn't be more different even if both may never earn their contracts.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jul 22, 2016 15:00:27 GMT -5
We can shuffle all we want next year with Hanley/Shaw/Sandoval/Travis, ect. The bottom line is that we don't have that middle of the order thumper as we do now with Ortiz. EE would fill that hole very nicely. We have over 40 million coming off the books next year. I know we'll have to backfill Taz/Zig/Koji. Think it's doable.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 22, 2016 15:39:06 GMT -5
We can shuffle all we want next year with Hanley/Shaw/Sandoval/Travis, ect. The bottom line is that we don't have that middle of the order thumper as we do now with Ortiz. EE would fill that hole very nicely. We have over 40 million coming off the books next year. I know we'll have to backfill Taz/Zig/Koji. Think it's doable. The Red Sox rank first in MLB with a 119 team RC+. Exclude Ortiz, they are just 112. Which still ranks first. In fact, you could replace Ortiz with a league-average hitter and they'd still rank first (111 to the Cardinals' 110). Ortiz is not the reason we have the best offense in MLB. He's the reason why we have the best offense in MLB by a huge margin. The difference between us and the Cardinals is the same as that between the Cards and the #10 Pirates.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 22, 2016 16:07:21 GMT -5
We can shuffle all we want next year with Hanley/Shaw/Sandoval/Travis, ect. The bottom line is that we don't have that middle of the order thumper as we do now with Ortiz. EE would fill that hole very nicely. We have over 40 million coming off the books next year. I know we'll have to backfill Taz/Zig/Koji. Think it's doable. The Red Sox rank first in MLB with a 119 team RC+. Exclude Ortiz, they are just 112. Which still ranks first. In fact, you could replace Ortiz with a league-average hitter and they'd still rank first (111 to the Cardinals' 110). Ortiz is not the reason we have the best offense in MLB. He's the reason why we have the best offense in MLB by a huge margin. The difference between us and the Cardinals is the same as that between the Cards and the #10 Pirates. But I think this may ignore or minimize the fact that his presence in the line-up is a factor beyond his production. Also he obviously lengthens that lineup.
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