ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 22, 2016 21:56:37 GMT -5
The Red Sox rank first in MLB with a 119 team RC+. Exclude Ortiz, they are just 112. Which still ranks first. In fact, you could replace Ortiz with a league-average hitter and they'd still rank first (111 to the Cardinals' 110). Ortiz is not the reason we have the best offense in MLB. He's the reason why we have the best offense in MLB by a huge margin. The difference between us and the Cardinals is the same as that between the Cards and the #10 Pirates. But I think this may ignore or minimize the fact that his presence in the line-up is a factor beyond his production. I may be the only analytics guy who actually believes in some kind of lineup protection, and I would put this factor at 0 runs. The only batter being pitched to differently is the immediately preceding hitter, and any top hitter will create the same change in approach as Papi. Yup, from the best lineup in baseball to the best by a mile. No one is arguing that he's not a great asset; the question is whether there is a need to replace him with a bat you believe is elite in order to stay competitive. The answer to that question is, um, no.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 25, 2016 9:14:04 GMT -5
Hanley is now on a pace for 2.35 aWAR, which seems modest, but he currently ranks 10th among 1B. If he stays hot and has a big second half, he could finish 8th.
In contrast, Travis Shaw's on pace for 3.3 but ranks 14th at 3B.
One complication in trying to figure out the best future are these career numbers for Shaw with the glove, per 150 G and based on half a season at each position:
DRS: +2 1B, +10 3B. UZR: +18 1B, +1 3B. TZ: +16 1B, +4 3B.
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Post by mattpicard on Jul 25, 2016 9:32:38 GMT -5
Hanley's emergence as a perfectly serviceable first baseman is a very helpful development as we try to fill Ortiz's departure in the offseason. Being able to get a guy who may need to primarily DH is a lot less worrisome when Hanley playing in the field most days isn't a nightmare.
As of right now, AL first basemen with a worse wRC+ than Hanley: Chris Davis, Eric Hosmer, Albert Pujols, Jose Abreu.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jul 25, 2016 14:13:41 GMT -5
We can shuffle all we want next year with Hanley/Shaw/Sandoval/Travis, ect. The bottom line is that we don't have that middle of the order thumper as we do now with Ortiz. EE would fill that hole very nicely. We have over 40 million coming off the books next year. I know we'll have to backfill Taz/Zig/Koji. Think it's doable. The Red Sox rank first in MLB with a 119 team RC+. Exclude Ortiz, they are just 112. Which still ranks first. In fact, you could replace Ortiz with a league-average hitter and they'd still rank first (111 to the Cardinals' 110). Ortiz is not the reason we have the best offense in MLB. He's the reason why we have the best offense in MLB by a huge margin. The difference between us and the Cardinals is the same as that between the Cards and the #10 Pirates. I'm not Bill James, but doesn't his presence allow better pitches to guys around him, making them more productive? I honestly don't think Pedroia &/or Bogaerts have the numbers they have if Ortiz is not there.
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Post by DesignatedKyle on Jul 25, 2016 14:40:14 GMT -5
AL Player of the Week: Hanley Ramirez
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fenwayfaithful
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Post by fenwayfaithful on Jul 26, 2016 2:51:34 GMT -5
Hanley is the man. I like him at first for a few years. then you can replace with sam travis and slide him into DH. i also have a feeling Panda is going to come out of the gate with a massive chip on his shoulder next year. DH might not be a great slot for him but he can fill in at 3rd and shaw can slide over. a bunch of different line-ups can be tossed out there any given night to properly rest our guys. GO HANLEY!!!
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jul 26, 2016 12:24:29 GMT -5
Hanley is the man. I like him at first for a few years. then you can replace with sam travis and slide him into DH. i also have a feeling Panda is going to come out of the gate with a massive chip on his shoulder next year. DH might not be a great slot for him but he can fill in at 3rd and shaw can slide over. a bunch of different line-ups can be tossed out there any given night to properly rest our guys. GO HANLEY!!! I believe Sam Travis was going to need the bulk of this year in AAA for his development. Now he'll need that next year. My concern is next year's DH spot. I agree Hanley should stay at 1B. I'm not sure Shaw/Sandoval could hit enough for DH. I would sign EE for a slightly overpay for less years. Last winter, the RS told Pablo to get in shape & we saw how that went.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 27, 2016 11:03:04 GMT -5
I'm not Bill James, but doesn't his presence allow better pitches to guys around him, making them more productive? I honestly don't think Pedroia &/or Bogaerts have the numbers they have if Ortiz is not there. There is no proof that this sort of thing has any effect on run production, and you can be sure that people have been looking for such proof.
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fenwayfaithful
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Post by fenwayfaithful on Jul 28, 2016 2:13:48 GMT -5
Hanley is the man. I like him at first for a few years. then you can replace with sam travis and slide him into DH. i also have a feeling Panda is going to come out of the gate with a massive chip on his shoulder next year. DH might not be a great slot for him but he can fill in at 3rd and shaw can slide over. a bunch of different line-ups can be tossed out there any given night to properly rest our guys. GO HANLEY!!! I believe Sam Travis was going to need the bulk of this year in AAA for his development. Now he'll need that next year. My concern is next year's DH spot. I agree Hanley should stay at 1B. I'm not sure Shaw/Sandoval could hit enough for DH. I would sign EE for a slightly overpay for less years. Last winter, the RS told Pablo to get in shape & we saw how that went. David Ortiz put this EE in everyones brain. A slight overpay is going to be like 25 mill for a DH. 2 years 45-50 million? I would honestly be ok with it. Shit Rusney is the richest guy to ever play a full season in AAA lol.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 28, 2016 6:06:45 GMT -5
I believe Sam Travis was going to need the bulk of this year in AAA for his development. Now he'll need that next year. My concern is next year's DH spot. I agree Hanley should stay at 1B. I'm not sure Shaw/Sandoval could hit enough for DH. I would sign EE for a slightly overpay for less years. Last winter, the RS told Pablo to get in shape & we saw how that went. David Ortiz put this EE in everyones brain. A slight overpay is going to be like 25 mill for a DH. 2 years 45-50 million? I would honestly be ok with it. Shit Rusney is the richest guy to ever play a full season in AAA lol. EE will probably get 3 or 4 years for a little north of $20 million/year or around there.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jul 28, 2016 7:44:58 GMT -5
David Ortiz put this EE in everyones brain. A slight overpay is going to be like 25 mill for a DH. 2 years 45-50 million? I would honestly be ok with it. Shit Rusney is the richest guy to ever play a full season in AAA lol. EE will probably get 3 or 4 years for a little north of $20 million/year or around there. Different situation but I wonder how Papi will take EE's upcoming contract given that he's never made more than $16M a year, and had to scratch and claw to even get that.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 28, 2016 8:17:47 GMT -5
EE will probably get 3 or 4 years for a little north of $20 million/year or around there. Different situation but I wonder how Papi will take EE's upcoming contract given that he's never made more than $16M a year, and had to scratch and claw to even get that. Well, he is endorsing the signing, so I'd guess he'd be ok with it, but I'm sure that thought would cross his mind. I'm sure in his mind, he was being loyal to the Red Sox and he knows that EE has no such loyalty to them and is totally a free agent (meaning pay me more and I'll come play for your team.) I mean, his buddies Hanley and Sandoval make more money than he does, and he hasn't complained about it. And if it totally about the money, Ortiz would demand a lot of money to come back next year, health be damned, and he's not. Ortiz is a gem. Between Wakefield, Tek, Pedroia, and Ortiz, the Sox have had some loyal employees over the years.
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Post by jdb on Jul 28, 2016 8:43:24 GMT -5
I think it was Jim Duquett yesterday on the radio that EE could be the highest paid free agent out there this off season. Id stay away. With Hanley showing he can handle 1B I'd go for a Carlos Beltran type on a one year deal or a cheaper trade option.
If (big if) the front office gets good early offseason reports on Sandaval I may would sign a David Freese and have a platoon there and have a serviceable backup at 1B, go ahead and move Moncada to 3B to be ready on stand by and explore a Shaw trade for a couple good arms. The Braves need a 3B and have those type of arms.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jul 28, 2016 11:05:08 GMT -5
With EE, he is probably viewed more as a DH type, not a Trumbo who can play an OK RF/1B. He'll be 34. That rules out most of the NL. 1/2 of the AL cannot afford this luxury. That leaves a handful of teams what will be in the mix. I don't see a 4/80 contract there. I'd be ok with 3/65 max. With our pitching staff, I think we're going to have to win more 7-5 & 8-6 type games.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 28, 2016 11:43:00 GMT -5
Encarnacion easily provides enough value with the bat that National League teams will be interested in him as a first baseman. He's not a disaster there, either. He's not good by any means but he's easily okay enough that an NL team will want his bat. He's ranked 101st out of 146 players in UZR/150 with 100+ innings at the position since 2013, right ahead of Tyler Moore and Greg Bird.
Hanley Ramirez got 4/$88M two years ago. I'm not sure what you view as a 4/$80 player.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 28, 2016 11:47:19 GMT -5
Encarnacion easily provides enough value with the bat that National League teams will be interested in him as a first baseman. He's not a disaster there, either. He's not good by any means but he's easily okay enough that an NL team will want his bat. He's ranked 101st out of 146 players in UZR/150 with 100+ innings at the position since 2013, right ahead of Tyler Moore and Greg Bird. Hanley Ramirez got 4/$88M two years ago. I'm not sure what you view as a 4/$80 player. I don't disagree with most of what you said, but EE's age of 34 is a big difference. Not every slugger can hit like Papi into their upper 30s. I see it as a huge risk.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 28, 2016 12:54:13 GMT -5
Carlos Beltran could be an option at DH. On a 1yr deal. Especially, if Yanks deal him. Doubtful new team would give him a qualifying offer.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 28, 2016 13:20:42 GMT -5
Carlos Beltran could be an option at DH. On a 1yr deal. Especially, if Yanks deal him. Doubtful new team would give him a qualifying offer. If he's traded in season, he cannot be offered a QO.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 28, 2016 13:23:52 GMT -5
Encarnacion is a long term DH, his age doesn't scare me much on a 3-4 year deal. But I would feel more comfortable if his 2nd half K% is closer to 15 than 20 given his prior years. I'd be surprised if he doesn't end up here, regardless.
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fenwayfaithful
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Post by fenwayfaithful on Jul 28, 2016 13:25:12 GMT -5
We have a bunch of players that can use at-bats. No reason to sign a one year rental for DH. We either lock in a power bat or use the 5-6 guys who will be fighting for PT.
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Post by barney27 on Jul 28, 2016 14:51:54 GMT -5
No dh rental. Move hanley to dh, 50 75 % of the time. Let him play 1st the rest of the time. Pablo is gone for whatever they get for him .Holt in the mix with shaw for 3rd. Shaw plays 1st when hanley is not. Find out by September if beni can play left. Also showcase Castillo in left again. If he can not cut it, move him out for a prospect. Lots of potential with young people under your control and lots of moveable parts. Moncada is lurking in the shadows. Maybe we should look at josh Riddick and see what they want for him to play left until beni is ready..
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jul 28, 2016 16:03:58 GMT -5
No dh rental. Move hanley to dh, 50 75 % of the time. Let him play 1st the rest of the time. Pablo is gone for whatever they get for him .Holt in the mix with shaw for 3rd. Shaw plays 1st when hanley is not. Find out by September if beni can play left. Also showcase Castillo in left again. If he can not cut it, move him out for a prospect. Lots of potential with young people under your control and lots of moveable parts. Moncada is lurking in the shadows. Maybe we should look at josh Riddick and see what they want for him to play left until beni is ready.. How would our offense look this year if Papi was not in the equation? Our offense has carried this team to this point. Next year if you remove that production (and not replace it) you can shuffle the deck all you want. A Papi-less offense will not be enough, especially with our shallow staff. EE is in that sweet spot of age/position limits/power...........
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Post by barney27 on Jul 29, 2016 7:38:21 GMT -5
No dh rental. Move hanley to dh, 50 75 % of the time. Let him play 1st the rest of the time. Pablo is gone for whatever they get for him .Holt in the mix with shaw for 3rd. Shaw plays 1st when hanley is not. Find out by September if beni can play left. Also showcase Castillo in left again. If he can not cut it, move him out for a prospect. Lots of potential with young people under your control and lots of moveable parts. Moncada is lurking in the shadows. Maybe we should look at josh Riddick and see what they want for him to play left until beni is ready.. How would our offense look this year if Papi was not in the equation? Our offense has carried this team to this point. Next year if you remove that production (and not replace it) you can shuffle the deck all you want. A Papi-less offense will not be enough, especially with our shallow staff. EE is in that sweet spot of age/position limits/power........... well said ee would be a good pickup. But he comes with a big contract. If we are to spend money for next year I thinkit has to be on pitching. If we give up less runs we do not need to score as many and still win. Losing 9-8 stiff sucks even though Ortiz gives us a great offensive. Maybe now we win 7-6.
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Post by joshv02 on Jul 29, 2016 7:43:11 GMT -5
Encarnacion easily provides enough value with the bat that National League teams will be interested in him as a first baseman. He's not a disaster there, either. He's not good by any means but he's easily okay enough that an NL team will want his bat. He's ranked 101st out of 146 players in UZR/150 with 100+ innings at the position since 2013, right ahead of Tyler Moore and Greg Bird. Hanley Ramirez got 4/$88M two years ago. I'm not sure what you view as a 4/$80 player. I haven't followed closely recently. What does uzr do for 1b? It used to essentially only measure range, which misses 3/4s of what they do.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 29, 2016 8:18:59 GMT -5
That's a fair criticism. Defensive Runs Saved likes him even better though - only 16 runs below average for his career (-6 per 1200 innings) at first base, and essentially average the last two years. He was an atrocious left fielder and not a good third baseman I think that's where his reputation comes from. From personal observation he seems okay at picking throws in the dirt and pretty good at throwing (which you'd expect from a converted third baseman).
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