SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
gerry
Veteran
Enter your message here...
Posts: 1,675
|
Post by gerry on Dec 21, 2017 16:34:56 GMT -5
So is Moreland consistent, or did the better hitting conditions in 2017 mask a significant decline by a 31-year-old mediocrity who showed other signs of decline as well and produced almost all of his offensive value during a six-week early-season surge? I have no way of knowing, but when in doubt I always bet on OBP, and Alonso has had higher OBPs. I agree, I think people are going to be disappointed if they think his early hot streak is the Moreland we get in 2018. At best the toe injury cut his hot streak short by a little bit. I've broken my toe and it was completely healed in two weeks and felt really good after a week. No more feeling the two bones moving against each other. In 2017 Moreland had the second best offensive season of his career. Expecting more than that sounds like a recipe for disaster. I had hoped for a reasonable (MLBTR version) contract for Santana. Hosmer at $20M was too much. Abreu, at the cost of JBJ and our few remaining top prospects was too much. Duda, Alonzo and Lomo have power, but perhaps too recently, and have significant issues of their own, from defense to inconsistency to personality. Meanwhile, MM will likely again hit 22-23HR, 30-35 doubles vs RHP, pairing with Brentz or Travis or Hanley; and once again play GG level D, benefiting the young left side and whomever subs for Pedey. His offense and above average D would NOT be a fluke, as this has been his MO for several years in the Majors. It's a 2 year, low cost deal allowing DDo to sign the power bat he is still talking about, which could be JDM. We can not expect MM to hit like Santana or Abreu, any more than we should have expected him to replace Papi. So what. Those are not fair expectations. 1B was by NO means a black hole in 2017. GG defense, 22HR and 34 doubles power, and a lengthy streak of carrying the team are really good. I see no reason to expect him to suddenly fall off the proverbial cliff. He is too young and too consistent for that.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 21, 2017 16:37:39 GMT -5
I agree, I think people are going to be disappointed if they think his early hot streak is the Moreland we get in 2018. At best the toe injury cut his hot streak short by a little bit. I've broken my toe and it was completely healed in two weeks and felt really good after a week. No more feeling the two bones moving against each other. In 2017 Moreland had the second best offensive season of his career. Expecting more than that sounds like a recipe for disaster. Why even bring that up? Are you saying that every toe injury is the same exact injury? Are we now onto guessing just how much Moreland was hurt and how much pain he was in? And how much your performance playing professional baseball wouldn't suffer from a broken toe compared to Moreland? The Red Sox aren't expecting more from Moreland. He's insurance for Hanley. Between the two of them, there won't be a disaster that there could have been with Hanley as the full time 1B. www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2017/06/red_sox_notebook_mitch_moreland_to_play_through_broken_toeSimple Moreland didn't even fully break his toe. It was a small fracture. It wasn't an injury that lingered for months and months. Even Eric did a study were he concluded the toe injury was only a problem for a few weeks. Which makes sense if you have ever dealt with a toe issue. It would be different if it involved ligaments, but it didn't. What's funny is everyone brings up the toe, but he had surgery on his knee recently for a tear.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 21, 2017 16:43:41 GMT -5
I agree, I think people are going to be disappointed if they think his early hot streak is the Moreland we get in 2018. At best the toe injury cut his hot streak short by a little bit. I've broken my toe and it was completely healed in two weeks and felt really good after a week. No more feeling the two bones moving against each other. In 2017 Moreland had the second best offensive season of his career. Expecting more than that sounds like a recipe for disaster. I had hoped for a reasonable (MLBTR version) contract for Santana. Hosmer at $20M was too much. Abreu, at the cost of JBJ and our few remaining top prospects was too much. Duda, Alonzo and Lomo have power, but perhaps too recently, having significant issues of their own, from defense to inconsistency to personality. Meanwhile, MM will likely again hit 22-23HR, 30-35 doubles vs RHP, pairing with Brentz or Travis or Hanley; and once again play GG level D benefiting the young left side and whomever subs for Pedey. His offense and above average D would NOT be a fluke, as this has been his MO for several years in the Majors. It's a 2 year, low cost deal allowing DDo to sign the power bat he is still talking about, which could be JDM. We can not expect MM to hit like Santana or Abreu, any more than we should have expected him to replace So what. Those are not ffair expectations. My point is simply to the people that keep bringing up the .877 OPS before the toe injury, like he was going to hit .877 for the season. If you expect good D and an OPS around .750 you won't be disappointed. Thing is you expect 30-35 doubles, when he has hit over 30 doubles once in his career. So I think you are expecting a little more than you should.
|
|
|
Post by Coreno on Dec 21, 2017 16:53:08 GMT -5
In 2017 Moreland had the second best offensive season of his career. Expecting more than that sounds like a recipe for disaster. Meanwhile, Yonder Alonso had the best offensive season of his career. Even after regressing quite a bit back towards his usual line after the trade to Seattle.
|
|
gerry
Veteran
Enter your message here...
Posts: 1,675
|
Post by gerry on Dec 21, 2017 17:04:32 GMT -5
Why even bring that up? Are you saying that every toe injury is the same exact injury? Are we now onto guessing just how much Moreland was hurt and how much pain he was in? And how much your performance playing professional baseball wouldn't suffer from a broken toe compared to Moreland? The Red Sox aren't expecting more from Moreland. He's insurance for Hanley. Between the two of them, there won't be a disaster that there could have been with Hanley as the full time 1B. www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2017/06/red_sox_notebook_mitch_moreland_to_play_through_broken_toeSimple Moreland didn't even fully break his toe. It was a small fracture. It wasn't an injury that lingered for months and months. Even Eric did a study were he concluded the toe injury was only a problem for a few weeks. Which makes sense if you have ever dealt with a toe issue. It would be different if it involved ligaments, but it didn't. What's funny is everyone brings up the toe, but he had surgery on his knee recently for a tear. Actually, fractures can be more problematic than breaks, and can take much longer to heal. And full recovery (on the field) from any break or fracture can take a while after the bones are technically healed. Just like the lingering effects of the April flu epidemic lasted for weeks after the patients were declared fit to return to action. As long as you are personalizing this, I once spent two MONTHS in the hospital, much of it in traction, followed by rehab learning to walk again, recovering from a fractured (not broken, which would have been faster) femur. Most docs will predict only within a wide range, the weeks or months needed to recover from anything. See TJ surgery, or Dustin Pedroia, ERod, Hanley, Marco Hernandez, Bryce Brentz, Blake, Blake Swihart, Tyler Thornburg, etc. Contrary to Mazz, these things DO take their own time. Remember when some idiots complained that JFK, and later John Kerry weren't wounded enough to be president? Really? LoL!!!
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 21, 2017 17:07:37 GMT -5
In 2017 Moreland had the second best offensive season of his career. Expecting more than that sounds like a recipe for disaster. Meanwhile, Yonder Alonso had the best offensive season of his career. Even after regressing quite a bit back towards his usual line after the trade to Seattle. Both have played 8 years, Moreland has 6.9 career war, Alonso has 7.9. In the year of the HR Alonso showed massive improvement and Moreland hit his normal amount. They got deals that were almost the same. Alonso did spend years hitting in a pitchers park, while Moreland has always played in hitter parks. If I had to pick a bat I take Alonso, while Morelands value is his D. For us with Ramirez, a Moreland/Ramirez platoon makes sense. If I had to bet on one to be a fulltime starter I might have picked Alonso. The whole thing is really splitting hairs in my opinion.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 21, 2017 17:26:21 GMT -5
www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2017/06/red_sox_notebook_mitch_moreland_to_play_through_broken_toeSimple Moreland didn't even fully break his toe. It was a small fracture. It wasn't an injury that lingered for months and months. Even Eric did a study were he concluded the toe injury was only a problem for a few weeks. Which makes sense if you have ever dealt with a toe issue. It would be different if it involved ligaments, but it didn't. What's funny is everyone brings up the toe, but he had surgery on his knee recently for a tear. Actually, fractures can be more problematic than breaks, and can take much longer to heal. And full recovery (on the field) from any break or fracture can take a while after the bones are technically healed. Just like the lingering effects of the April flu epidemic lasted for weeks after the patients were declared fit to return to action. As long as you are personalizing this, I once spent two MONTHS in the hospital, much of it in traction, followed by rehab learning to walk again, recovering from a fractured (not broken, which would have been faster) femur. Most docs will predict only within a wide range, the weeks or months needed to recover from anything. See TJ surgery, or Dustin Pedroia, ERod, Hanley, Marco Hernandez, Bryce Brentz, Blake, Blake Swihart, Tyler Thornburg, etc. Contrary to Mazz, these things DO take their own time. Remember when some idiots complained that JFK, and later John Kerry weren't wounded enough to be president? Really? LoL!!! Yes they can depending how bad they are and what bones they are. Thing is his couldn't have been that bad for him to play through it or for the team to allow him to play through it. You can't play through a fully broken toe, zero chance of that. I think we can agree a femur and a toe aren't even close to the same thing. I was told toes heal quickly and there is nothing that can be done to help them. It's my opinion his toe injury didn't affect him for months. Add in Eric pouring over the numbers and saying it only was an issue for a few weeks. That makes sense. If you think otherwise all the power to you.
|
|
|
Post by Gwell55 on Dec 21, 2017 18:06:16 GMT -5
Well the toe sure didn't hurt him in August that is for sure. .342 .390 .671 1.061 I wonder when he hurt his knee? "Moreland said the broken toe he sustained back in June led to a knee problem towards the end of the season, and while he was able to play through the pain, he'll have it checked out now that ..." www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/red-soxs-mitch-moreland-to-have-knee-examined-tuesday/September maybe? .198 .260 .407 .667 After all the back and forth it sure looks like he toughed it out for awhile on both injuries. Sure seems to me his projection is about the same as Alonso if not just a touch better in the track record department for XB hits and Alonso has what 1 year of Hr power while Moreland is a lot better in consistency with what 23 hr per 162 than that 13 for Alonzo who is only a year and a half younger in the same 8 year mlb career ('10-fwd). Seems a near wash on paper but I would think Moreland's contract is a good bet considering the 14M possible to the 16 guaranteed on Alonso.
|
|
bosox
Veteran
Posts: 2,117
|
Post by bosox on Dec 21, 2017 22:23:35 GMT -5
Mark Feinsand @feinsand 17m17 minutes ago Source says Yankees-Pirates talks re: Gerrit Cole trade are "getting hot," though it's unclear whether a deal is imminent.
Let's hope the MFYs have to surrender some top prospects. With the their luck, they'll pickup Cole and Harrison and the Pirates will get a one top five prospect (not-named Gleyber), two mid-tier prospects and somehow get suckered into taking on Ellsbury's contract.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Dec 21, 2017 22:28:36 GMT -5
Mark Feinsand @feinsand 17m17 minutes ago Source says Yankees-Pirates talks re: Gerrit Cole trade are "getting hot," though it's unclear whether a deal is imminent. Let's hope the MFYs have to surrender some top prospects. With the their luck, they'll pickup Cole and Harrison and the Pirates will get a one top five prospect (not-named Gleyber), two mid-tier prospects and somehow get suckered into taking on Ellsbury's contract. It's not luck. Cashman is an excellent GM. They aren't going to give up anyone of value except perhaps C. Frazier.
|
|
redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,674
Member is Online
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 21, 2017 22:37:44 GMT -5
Mark Feinsand @feinsand 17m17 minutes ago Source says Yankees-Pirates talks re: Gerrit Cole trade are "getting hot," though it's unclear whether a deal is imminent. Let's hope the MFYs have to surrender some top prospects. With the their luck, they'll pickup Cole and Harrison and the Pirates will get a one top five prospect (not-named Gleyber), two mid-tier prospects and somehow get suckered into taking on Ellsbury's contract. It's not luck. Cashman is an excellent GM. They aren't going to give up anyone of value except perhaps C. Frazier. They're certainly not at the mercy of Scott Boras' timetable like the Red Sox and most other teams are. That's for sure. I think this deal will happen with Clint Frazier being the key guy for Pittsburgh and that guy will mash. The Yanks would be dumb to part with Torres which they won't do, but they will miss Frazier's bat. The team is kind of RH. I can see the Yankees going after Logan Morrison to DH. Cole is a good pitcher, although he hasn't been the same since 2015 when he got injured in 2016. His 2017 season was good, but not great. He'll get run support, but he'll give up his share of HRs, too. Still, though, between Severino, Tanaka, Cole, Gray, and Sabathia, that's a solid staff, and depending upon who else they deal they still have Montgomery (I could see him going in the deal), Sheffield, and Adams. Cashman has this team very well positioned.
|
|
|
Post by taftreign on Dec 21, 2017 23:02:26 GMT -5
The hold up appears to be NY wanting to headline the deal with Frazier and Pittsburgh wants Torres.
|
|
|
Post by swingingbunt on Dec 21, 2017 23:03:52 GMT -5
Frazier and Meadows being in the same outfield will almost make this trade worth it for me.
|
|
redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,674
Member is Online
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 21, 2017 23:07:59 GMT -5
The hold up appears to be NY wanting to headline the deal with Frazier and Pittsburgh wants Torres. From what I read the Pirates will be dealing Cole one way or another soon and the Yankees should have enough enticing prospects that they feel pretty confident they can make the deal without having to deal Torres. The deal will get done without Torres and as was pointed out, Frazier and Meadows should make for an interesting outfield. McCutchen will be next to go - who knows? Maybe the Giants grab him to play him in CF for a year even though he probably shouldn't be in CF anymore.
|
|
redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,674
Member is Online
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 21, 2017 23:18:43 GMT -5
Watching the Yankees improve their already strong team is tough especially when the Red Sox really at this point can't do much.
This is where as a fan I really can't stand Boras.
I think the Sox will wind up with Martinez but the excitement of it (at least for me) has been muted. Really makes this whole thing feel like a mercenary transaction (I know they all are, but it's tough to watch the press conference where you can almost hear the guy saying, "Well spring training is about to start, and I'm glad Boston finally caved in giving me my 7th year...")
Or it's they don't get him and they're kind of screwed because that would mean the Sox did nothing to drastically improve a lineup that's very in need of improvement while their rival who already has a better lineup has dramatically improved theirs.
And because Boras is gumming up the works the Sox can't really even do much in the way of secondary items. At this point they can't even really get a lefty reliever because they don't know how much money they'd have to work with if they signed Martinez. They can't even look into Nunez who is a good fit on the team, especially while Pedroia is out.
And it's not just the Red Sox. It's just about everybody except the Yankees and apparently the Angels, and Marlins who are handing players away to everybody.
I hate watching the days grow shorter and colder and I look so forward to winter trade meetings, etc. The football season, despite that thriller against the Steelers, is kind of dull in December - just waiting for some exciting January playoff football - so December is supposed to be the hot stove month where you get to start anew, wash out the bad taste of being eliminated in October by truly putting your team together for 2018 - except that NOTHING has happened other than bringing back a guy who defines mediocrity and isn't exactly a poster boy for forward progress.
So it's so damn disappointing that there's like no real Red Sox baseball talk to be had except scratching our heads and wondering why Mitch is back yet again or debating the whole Stanton, would he have come to Boston/should the Sox have offered to pay off the entire contract conversation.
And while logically I know that like most teams the Sox will put their team together in January and it really won't make much difference, emotionally it's kind of a letdown.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 22, 2017 4:21:23 GMT -5
Mark Feinsand @feinsand 17m17 minutes ago Source says Yankees-Pirates talks re: Gerrit Cole trade are "getting hot," though it's unclear whether a deal is imminent. Let's hope the MFYs have to surrender some top prospects. With the their luck, they'll pickup Cole and Harrison and the Pirates will get a one top five prospect (not-named Gleyber), two mid-tier prospects and somehow get suckered into taking on Ellsbury's contract. It's not luck. Cashman is an excellent GM. They aren't going to give up anyone of value except perhaps C. Frazier. How do you know this? I hope they give up Sheffield for overated Cole. This move doesn't move the needle for me. There really hasn't been a more hyped and overated pitcher in this generation other than Gerrit Cole.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Dec 22, 2017 8:09:05 GMT -5
It's not luck. Cashman is an excellent GM. They aren't going to give up anyone of value except perhaps C. Frazier. How do you know this? I hope they give up Sheffield for overated Cole. This move doesn't move the needle for me. There really hasn't been a more hyped and overated pitcher in this generation other than Gerrit Cole. It's my opinion based on Cashman sagacity in trades even over the past two years. He has built a top farm, given next to nothing for Stanton, unloaded Headly, re-acquired prior outstanding BP personnel, cut salary to get under the luxury tax, will be poised to go after an interested Harper, yada, yada. Now if you think that Cole is overrated, then that makes giving up top prospects even less likely. DD, in contrast, has given up lots of prospects (maybe he had to) to get trades consummated sooner rather than later. I give the Yankees great credit for the job they have done in short order.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 22, 2017 8:16:52 GMT -5
How do you know this? I hope they give up Sheffield for overated Cole. This move doesn't move the needle for me. There really hasn't been a more hyped and overated pitcher in this generation other than Gerrit Cole. It's my opinion based on Cashman sagacity in trades even over the past two years. He has built a top farm, given next to nothing for Stanton, unloaded Headly, re-acquired prior outstanding BP personnel, cut salary to get under the luxury tax, will be poised to go after an interested Harper, yada, yada. Now if you think that Cole is overrated, then that makes giving up top prospects even less likely. DD, in contrast, has given up lots of prospects (maybe he had to) to get trades consummated sooner rather than later. I give the Yankees great credit for the job they have done in short order. Cashman is a good GM, but he's also the guy that signed Ellsbury, Igawa, and has spent the last what 14 years in mediocrity while seeing only one world series appearance? I mean every dog has it's day. Took them long enough to get back to being a real threat.
|
|
redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,674
Member is Online
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 22, 2017 8:37:33 GMT -5
It's my opinion based on Cashman sagacity in trades even over the past two years. He has built a top farm, given next to nothing for Stanton, unloaded Headly, re-acquired prior outstanding BP personnel, cut salary to get under the luxury tax, will be poised to go after an interested Harper, yada, yada. Now if you think that Cole is overrated, then that makes giving up top prospects even less likely. DD, in contrast, has given up lots of prospects (maybe he had to) to get trades consummated sooner rather than later. I give the Yankees great credit for the job they have done in short order. Cashman is a good GM, but he's also the guy that signed Ellsbury, Igawa, and has spent the last what 14 years in mediocrity while seeing only one world series appearance? I mean every dog has it's day. Took them long enough to get back to being a real threat. You could look at it that way but I honestly think that Cashman is finally free to do things his own way without interference. Think about how long he's been with NY. He's had to deal with George Steinbrenner the first seven to ten years, deal with George's Tampa cronies who should have been put out to pasture way before, and then upon George's passing he had to deal with his idiotic son Hank, who clearly knows nothing about baseball. Notice we haven't heard a peep out of Hank the past several years. That's because Hal is running the show and he's a helluva lot smarter and he's letting Cashman do things his way. The moves Cashman has been making is kind of scary. It's like watching Gabe Paul in the 1970s rip off opponents in deals and then George taking credit for making them champions by signing the shiny new baubles. Cole may not be a true ace, but he is a damn good pitcher, one whose FIP is about a quarter run better than his ERA. On the Yankees Cole is a solid #3. He'll give them innings and he'll get a ton of run support, and beyond Frazier I doubt the Yankees give up much they can't live without. And they're under the luxury tax so they'll have plenty of money to get Machado and/or Harper if they want to. Cashman isn't some lucky dog whose having his day. He made brilliant trades, held onto the best of the farm, and has gotten rid of most of the terrible contracts except for Ellsbury. I'd say all of his planning has come together. Anytime you can add Stanton for practically nothing and lower your payroll to well under the luxury tax limit, you're doing something very right. Figuring that he sent away Castro in the deal, that means for AAV, he's paying $14 million for Stanton this year. I'd say that's a helluva a bargain.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Dec 22, 2017 8:41:02 GMT -5
The moves Cashman has been making is kind of scary. It's like watching Gabe Paul in the 1970s rip off opponents in deals and then George taking credit for making them champions by signing the shiny new baubles. When Aaron Judge gets to 8.0 career bWAR with the Yankees, he'll be the first Yankee 1st round pick to reach that lofty goal while with the team since 1992 first-round pick Derek Jeter. Cashman did a pretty good job buying low the guy who just shot up his girlfriends house then selling high when people figured their fans would forget about it, but these Cashman is a genius takes are getting silly. He's had the highest payroll in baseball and has been to one World Series since Watson's "core four" got over 30 years old.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 22, 2017 8:47:48 GMT -5
Can Cole actually be relied on giving you innings though?
The guy has been plagued by shortened seasons ever since he entered it, with the exception of maybe one or two?
I know he was plagued by a huge homerun spike as James mentioned in the Red Sox off-season thread, but the guy gave up nearly a hit a inning while giving up 55 walks on top of that last year.
He did this in a league where he's given 2-3 free outs a game.
I'm sorry I'm really down on Cole, the only word I can keep coming up with is overrated with him. I just hope the deal hurts and Cashman gives up Sheffield since the Pirates look like there coming off their demand of Torres.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Dec 22, 2017 8:53:00 GMT -5
I know he was plagued by a huge homerun spike as James mentioned in the Red Sox off-season thread, but the guy gave up nearly a hit a inning while giving up 55 walks on top of that last year. 55 walks in 203 innings is straight-up good. A 1.251 WHIP is totally solid... especially from a player whose HR/FB rate can reasonably be expected to fall. It was 27th best in baseball among qualified starters, so pretty comfortably in #3 starter range. And again, that was in a season when he was unlucky. Turning eight of those homers back into outs gets him back under 1.20.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 22, 2017 8:55:16 GMT -5
I know he was plagued by a huge homerun spike as James mentioned in the Red Sox off-season thread, but the guy gave up nearly a hit a inning while giving up 55 walks on top of that last year. 55 walks in 203 innings is straight-up good. Adding in all the hits on top of that isn't though. That is a lot of baserunners in a pitcher's league. Like I said, I hope the trade hurts because I can see the Yankees not being totally happy by the end of it.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 22, 2017 9:40:39 GMT -5
No positive movement for the Yankees in regards to Cole, as reported by Heyman.
Meaning if Sox fans are "scared" that the Yankees are going to "steal" Cole for only Clint Frazier, think again.
I'm thinking it's going to take at least a Sheffield here and I'll laugh if the Yankees do it. That'll show everyone that no matter how the Yankees "change," they will always stay the same.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Dec 22, 2017 10:02:10 GMT -5
If the Yankees do trade for Cole and it costs Frazier + other prospects, I can't wait for some of the DD bashers to spin the deal as another failure for DD while still bashing the Pomeranz deal.
|
|
|