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Post by Coreno on Dec 29, 2017 11:45:17 GMT -5
Okay but after the Davis deal is up, the Rockies are for sure signing Kelvin Herrera to close, right?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 29, 2017 13:06:29 GMT -5
@jeffpassan Source: Wade Davis has agreed to a deal with the Colorado Rockies. 10:45 AM · Dec 29, 2017 @jonheyman wade davis deal with rockies is for $52M over 3 years 10:55 AM · Dec 29, 2017 Look I know they were kinda good last year but my god the Rockies have no clue. Yeah, shoving that much money into a bullpen, when the park dictates so much of what goes down in Colorado, seems like a real stretch. They do have a decent team, but the resources might be better employed elsewhere.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 29, 2017 13:39:46 GMT -5
It is amazing watching the relief market drastically shoot up over the last few offseasons.
It used to be you spent significant money on the closer, but nothing that was even remotely equitable to a starting pitcher's salary and you'd cobble together middle relievers without spending too much.
Now it seems every team wants to "stack" their bullpen, seemingly since the time the Royals won the World Series in 2015 following a year they almost won in 2014. Teams are suddenly now paying $7 to $10 for setup men and soon Kimbrel could fetch a 5 year $100 million deal or something like that. It's crazy. These guys don't pitch that many innings and most of them are pretty volatile.
We're eventually going to see teams with $8 million/year relievers who struggle worse than kids coming up from AAA and $15 million/year closers who lose their jobs.
I know this happens with hitters and starters, too, but the volatility of relievers is so much that it's hard to believe teams are willing to sink this much money into relievers.
It's kind of ironic but the Astros won the Series with just about the worst bullpen I felt of every team in the post-season. They succeeded because they crunched the ball, their top 2 starters pitched well, and their last 3 starters were actually their best relievers in the post-season when they weren't starting.
I'm almost surprised we're not getting big "swingman" type of contracts - big bucks for pitchers who could shuttle back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 29, 2017 13:48:32 GMT -5
Passan just added there's a vesting option for $15M if he closes 30 games in 2020. Otherwise it's a mutual option with a $1M buyout (so that makes me think it's 17M per year for three years and the 52 number includes the buyout). Everyone who was hoping to get a relief pitcher at a discount, note that Davis just signed for the highest per-year salary of any RP ever. Notably, Colorado now adds Davis to a bullpen that includes Shaw ($7.5M), McGee, Dunn, and Ottavino (all $7M) and will cost just under $50M next year (over $45M just for those five). Normally, I'd hate that, but Colorado might be the one place where balling out for a potentially sick bullpen makes a ton of sense. Only time will tell, we shall see. BUT 45 million for what maybe 300-350 innings pitched max? Leaving maybe 1200 innings to be pitched and all the position players along with 5500+ at bats to fill out the roster. Seems to me like probably 25% of the budget going towards what amounts to players who will be contributing maybe 2-3 innings pitched per game, hard to believe that is a winning formula. Just pulled that off the top of my head so I could be way off but the point is the same. Well, keep in mind that their projected 2018 rotation is Gray/Marquez/Freeland/Bettis/Anderson, and Bettis is the only one of those who've even hit arb yet. Plus Hoffman probably steps in for him or Anderson soon. On the other side of the ball they get a full season of McMahon, hope that Dahl clicks, and maybe Tapia figures it out. It's possible that the strategy is to shore up the bullpen now, then at the deadline if they need a piece they get the other piece in a trade rather than pay dearly for the relief arm? I'm not saying that I absolutely love the strategy here, but I'm saying I think it's defensible.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 29, 2017 14:16:55 GMT -5
I think the point about starters not taking their money is a good one. Position players being too expensive... that's a little more questionable.
I will say that I don't think the Rockies signing an elite reliever is necessarily a crazy idea. Wade Davis specifically scares me though. A little shaky last year, health questions, and he's headed for high altitude at age 33. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say there's more ways for that to go poorly than for it to go well.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 29, 2017 15:02:32 GMT -5
Hey there's baseball news that doesn't involve sexual assault charges and it's actual news, not speculation. Finally.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 29, 2017 15:07:34 GMT -5
I think the point about starters not taking their money is a good one. Position players being too expensive... that's a little more questionable. I will say that I don't think the Rockies signing an elite reliever is necessarily a crazy idea. Wade Davis specifically scares me though. A little shaky last year, health questions, and he's headed for high altitude at age 33. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say there's more ways for that to go poorly than for it to go well. As it relates to Kimbrel, worth noting that Davis is actually 2.5 years older than Kimbrel, which surprised me.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 29, 2017 23:58:39 GMT -5
If you remember, he spent his first three years trying to make it as a starter before TB made him a reliever. He became a free agent, went to KC, and the same thing happened, though the starter thing only lasted for a year.
All that chewed up some time. After that he was Mr. Dominant for 4 years before his year in Chicago. I don't think he's quite the same pitcher from watching him with the Cubs. Still strikes out a lot of batters, but the walk rate was the highest of his career.
Between them, Shaw, McGee, and Davis will be paid $30 million. Assume they give you 200 innings, right around 15% of the pitched innings. We'll be generous and say $150 million in team salary. They'll be getting a fifth of the team's entire salary, pitchers and hitters.
Bullpens are definitely a big part of the modern game, but this seems a bit out of line to me. And those are by no means the only relievers they need.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 30, 2017 0:36:05 GMT -5
If you remember, he spent his first three years trying to make it as a starter before TB made him a reliever. He became a free agent, went to KC, and the same thing happened, though the starter thing only lasted for a year. All that chewed up some time. After that he was Mr. Dominant for 4 years before his year in Chicago. I don't think he's quite the same pitcher from watching him with the Cubs. Still strikes out a lot of batters, but the walk rate was the highest of his career. Between them, Shaw, McGee, and Davis will be paid $30 million. Assume they give you 200 innings, right around 15% of the pitched innings. We'll be generous and say $150 million in team salary. They'll be getting a fifth of the team's entire salary, pitchers and hitters. Bullpens are definitely a big part of the modern game, but this seems a bit out of line to me. And those are by no means the only relievers they need. Tampa traded him to KC as part of the package for Wil Myers.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 30, 2017 11:52:00 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 30, 2017 12:40:47 GMT -5
If you remember, he spent his first three years trying to make it as a starter before TB made him a reliever. He became a free agent, went to KC, and the same thing happened, though the starter thing only lasted for a year. All that chewed up some time. After that he was Mr. Dominant for 4 years before his year in Chicago. I don't think he's quite the same pitcher from watching him with the Cubs. Still strikes out a lot of batters, but the walk rate was the highest of his career. Between them, Shaw, McGee, and Davis will be paid $30 million. Assume they give you 200 innings, right around 15% of the pitched innings. We'll be generous and say $150 million in team salary. They'll be getting a fifth of the team's entire salary, pitchers and hitters. Bullpens are definitely a big part of the modern game, but this seems a bit out of line to me. And those are by no means the only relievers they need. Tampa traded him to KC as part of the package for Wil Myers. Also, he was converted back to being a reliever in September of his first year with the Royals. Then he had 2 dominant years followed by 1 good year in which he had two DL stints due to a forearm strain. Given the uptick in walks and the forearm strain, I would be worried TJ surgery occurs at some point during that 3 year contract. It's a big risk.
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