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Post by dmaineah on Mar 29, 2017 10:43:18 GMT -5
Lets take this up again when he gets to 1800 plate appearances. I think you'll all see by then.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 29, 2017 10:49:01 GMT -5
He has a .262/.345/.489 line in 900 plate appearances over the last two major league seasons. What is it, exactly, that you aren't believing in? That it will continue. I think the line is a by product of a few good weeks, a hot streak. I am in the same boat as you on JBJ to some extent, personally I am not a huge fan of his. I think his slash line is a bit inflated due to his amazing hot streak last May. Now that is not to say that I think he has no value to the team and is a negative player. I think with his defense he is a huge asset to the team I just wish he wasn't such a streaky player.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 29, 2017 11:25:16 GMT -5
What about Workman? His numbers look good, has his fastball velocity returned yet? Workman was throwing about 90 late last year if memory serves and was still in that area code this spring. Ok good so he's getting back to normal. Last report I saw was mid 80s.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 29, 2017 11:29:00 GMT -5
Lets take this up again when he gets to 1800 plate appearances. I think you'll all see by then. I think he gets better, not worse. He is a streaky hitter, that doesn't mean it's luck. He just goes hot and cold.
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Post by ramireja on Mar 29, 2017 11:32:22 GMT -5
He has a .262/.345/.489 line in 900 plate appearances over the last two major league seasons. What is it, exactly, that you aren't believing in? That it will continue. I think the line is a by product of a few good weeks, a hot streak. But thats exactly what triple slash lines are over a solid sample size.....an average of the hot and cold streaks. Do you think JBJ will have no more hot streaks in the next 900 PA? That doesn't seem like a reasonable hypothesis.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 29, 2017 11:39:17 GMT -5
That it will continue. I think the line is a by product of a few good weeks, a hot streak. I am in the same boat as you on JBJ to some extent, personally I am not a huge fan of his. I think his slash line is a bit inflated due to his amazing hot streak last May. Now that is not to say that I think he has no value to the team and is a negative player. I think with his defense he is a huge asset to the team I just wish he wasn't such a streaky player. Just a reminder that one of the best defenders in baseball was known for his offense on his championship college team twice before being drafted. After which he remained a dynamic hitter all through the minors including that fateful 2013 ST which caused him to be rushed to the Majors as a kid from AA instead of allowing him to complete his developmental path. This led to struggles as he yo-yoed between Pawtucket and Fenway, which led to a narrative that he can't hit well enough to be a MLB center fielder. So now he is among the best fielding, best hitting CF in the game for about 1.5 seasons, as his college and mLB pedigree would suggest, yet that tired narrative based on his early MLB struggles persists among some knowledgeable Boston fans. He is in good company then, along with Doubters of Pedroia, Papi, Porcello, Price, Pomeranz, and even some names beginning with the letter B. Go Sox.
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Post by thursty on Mar 29, 2017 11:56:20 GMT -5
For what it's worth, Steamer and Zips project a 3-win season from him this season (he was actually 2nd in fWAR among CF last year at 4.8) - regression is expected
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 29, 2017 12:01:33 GMT -5
For what it's worth, Steamer and Zips project a 3-win season from him this season (he was actually 2nd in fWAR among CF last year at 4.8) - regression is expected Right, but his lousy 2014 is still holding his projections down. Safe to say he exceeded his projections the last two years because he made real improvement.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 29, 2017 12:10:59 GMT -5
The original contention wasn't that he's going to regress - it's that he'll regress so far that he won't be worth having in the lineup. I guess that's possible, in the same way it's possible that Adam Eaton or Jason Kipnis or Sterling Marte will do that. He's certainly established himself well beyond the point of being people sensibly worrying about his spring training batting average.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 29, 2017 12:16:55 GMT -5
I am in the same boat as you on JBJ to some extent, personally I am not a huge fan of his. I think his slash line is a bit inflated due to his amazing hot streak last May. Now that is not to say that I think he has no value to the team and is a negative player. I think with his defense he is a huge asset to the team I just wish he wasn't such a streaky player. Just a reminder that one of the best defenders in baseball was known for his offense on his championship college team twice before being drafted. After which he remained a dynamic hitter all through the minors including that fateful 2013 ST which caused him to be rushed to the Majors as a kid from AA instead of allowing him to complete his developmental path. This led to struggles as he yo-yoed between Pawtucket and Fenway, which led to a narrative that he can't hit well enough to be a MLB center fielder. So now he is among the best fielding, best hitting CF in the game for about 1.5 seasons, as his college and mLB pedigree would suggest, yet that tired narrative based on his early MLB struggles persists among some knowledgeable Boston fans. He is in good company then, along with Doubters of Pedroia, Papi, Porcello, Price, Pomeranz, and even some names beginning with the letter B. Go Sox. I am not basing my whole opinion on JBJ on his early career struggles. I just personally don't love super streaky players that are either hot or cold and have no in-between. Like I said I believe he is an MLB caliber player and brings value with his defense and he does have good pop in his bat for a CF. He also strikes out a bit too much for my liking but for the most part I am glad to have him as the CF, but I also wouldn't have been opposed to trading him when I think his value might be the highest due to his service time and the good season that he had.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Mar 29, 2017 12:32:48 GMT -5
One other interesting facet of the JBJ saga this year is that he turns 27 next month, so this is his age 27 season, a time when a notably significant number of players have a breakout season or one of their peak seasons. At least we won't have to wait long for the supposed "final judgment" on JBJ, because as a regular hitting other than at the very bottom of the lineup 900 PA is only a season and a half.
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Post by thursty on Mar 29, 2017 12:33:29 GMT -5
Spring training BA is meaningless + ? = it's irrational to be pessimistic about Bradley's 2017 performance.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 29, 2017 13:38:19 GMT -5
I feel as though you left out the key part of the article you posted on purpose- Assuming that Thornburg opens the year on the disabled list, the Sox will need to replace him on the roster with a less-established bullpen alternative. Dombrowski said he will probably not look outside the organization. “But,” Dombrowski added, “I can’t rule anything out because I don’t really know anything other than what we found out today.” There's still a good chance the Sox could make a move at some point. What teams have too many decent major league relievers right now that they're looking to trade? It's such a horrible idea because there are none and you'd have to massively overpay to convince some team to make their team worse. There's a lot of guys who go on waivers who can't make a 25 man roster who are out of options. Bronson Arroyo I believe was a waiver claim if I remember correctly. Jose Bautista was also a roster claim. Selsky is also another guy who looks great off waivers. Sometimes you do find a diamond in the rough, and it doesn't need to come in the form of a trade. This would be one way the Sox the Sox could keep their depth and not use any of their assets to trade.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 29, 2017 13:50:59 GMT -5
I think there's something of a language barrier here. In a literal sense, when you say "a good chance the Sox could make a move" that does include every organizational move such as putting in a waiver claim for a player who your scouts see as undervalued. Colloquially, though, it's generally synonymous with "the Sox might make a trade for someone we've heard of." Nobody is arguing against asking your talent evaluators if someone on waivers is good.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 29, 2017 14:27:38 GMT -5
Rutledge should be returned to Colorado Because he's hurt? You realize he can still be put on the DL, yes?
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Post by digit on Mar 29, 2017 14:27:48 GMT -5
I didn't even think 2013 and 2014 were indicative of his true talent levels - isn't the rest of his career, both in the majors and the minors, enough to say that those were outliers?
He did well enough batting sixth that I'm not even sure attributing his stats to him batting 9th is enough justification for doubting that .262/.345/.489 isn't in line with his ability.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 29, 2017 15:04:28 GMT -5
People here seem to be aignst against getting a player off waivers or going outside the organization for help. Even making a minor trade seems to upset some people here. I mean, we are talking about a long man in a bullpen and the 25th man in the roster. This is what waivers is for.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 29, 2017 15:45:59 GMT -5
Spring training BA is meaningless + ? = it's irrational to be pessimistic about Bradley's 2017 performance. This isn't meaningless: some simple arithmetic using B-R's wins estimate shows that he's been worth 5 1/3 of those per 625 plate appearances over the last two seasons. Worry all you want. I'm going to sit back, knock one down, and watch the guy play baseball.
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Post by ramireja on Mar 29, 2017 16:11:40 GMT -5
Wait are we talking about JBJ's spring stats as concerning? You guys do realize:
2015: .249/.335/.498 2016: .267/.349/.486 2017 (Spring): .264/.339/.509
I can't even make this stuff up.
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Post by Coreno on Mar 29, 2017 16:56:55 GMT -5
It sounds like 24/25 of the opening day roster is settled, due to the Rutledge injury.
Either Hernandez or Selsky will likely make their first OD roster as the 25th man.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 29, 2017 17:09:31 GMT -5
It sounds like 24/25 of the opening day roster is settled, due to the Rutledge injury. Either Hernandez or Selsky will likely make their first OD roster as the 25th man. The real question is if Rutledge needs to be DL'D then who takes that last bullpen spot. It'll be interesting to see where the Sox go with it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 29, 2017 18:03:14 GMT -5
It sounds like 24/25 of the opening day roster is settled, due to the Rutledge injury. Either Hernandez or Selsky will likely make their first OD roster as the 25th man. The real question is if Rutledge needs to be DL'D then who takes that last bullpen spot. It'll be interesting to see where the Sox go with it. ? Thornburg is going to the DL. Scott and Abad are both making the team. If Rutledge goes on the DL, Hernandez or Selsky will make the team. It's pretty straightforward.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 29, 2017 18:06:04 GMT -5
People here seem to be aignst against getting a player off waivers or going outside the organization for help. Even making a minor trade seems to upset some people here. I mean, we are talking about a long man in a bullpen and the 25th man in the roster. This is what waivers is for. No, I think people here get annoyed when you post "they should go get a guy off waivers or in a trade" and then don't have anyone actually in mind or when you do, it's someone like Pelfrey who's been above replacement level in one of the last four years, in which case it would make sense that some folks wouldn't like that idea.
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Post by thursty on Mar 29, 2017 18:44:15 GMT -5
Pomeranz's FB at 88-89 Anderson Espinoza (aka as "the bust"), clocked at 97 this spring. Steven Wright in a knee brace . . .
It's true, I'm not exactly Mr. Sunshine and Light, but I smell something rotten in Denmark with this team
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 29, 2017 19:32:11 GMT -5
The real question is if Rutledge needs to be DL'D then who takes that last bullpen spot. It'll be interesting to see where the Sox go with it. ? Thornburg is going to the DL. Scott and Abad are both making the team. If Rutledge goes on the DL, Hernandez or Selsky will make the team. It's pretty straightforward. Two LOOGY types isn't a very smart plan if you ask me.
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