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Red Sox re-sign Eduardo Nunez
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 8, 2018 10:58:22 GMT -5
I'd rather play Marco Hernandez than sign Eduardo Nunez. I think we as Sox fans view Nunez as a better player than he is because he played well above any level he'd played at previously in his career after the trade. He slugged .537 after the trade, for example, when his previous career high for a season was .432. There's no reason to expect he'll hit nearly as well as he did after the trade, and as pointed out, he's not a strong defender either. I think Hernandez can do what Nunez does much more cheaply. My only pause on Hernandez is that I worry about rust early in the year when you'd most need him.
Of the remaining free agents, I would only sign JD Martinez and a reliever or two, especially a lefty, to major league deals. Actually add Darvish or Arrieta if you can then move Porcello.
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Post by soxjim on Feb 9, 2018 0:48:54 GMT -5
I'd rather play Marco Hernandez than sign Eduardo Nunez. I think we as Sox fans view Nunez as a better player than he is because he played well above any level he'd played at previously in his career after the trade. He slugged .537 after the trade, for example, when his previous career high for a season was .432. There's no reason to expect he'll hit nearly as well as he did after the trade, and as pointed out, he's not a strong defender either. I think Hernandez can do what Nunez does much more cheaply. My only pause on Hernandez is that I worry about rust early in the year when you'd most need him. Of the remaining free agents, I would only sign JD Martinez and a reliever or two, especially a lefty, to major league deals. Actually add Darvish or Arrieta if you can then move Porcello. I think Nunez is a pretty good option. Not the best. And I have no idea about his injury. But he hits. He's not in the pros for his defense. And if he had a full season in teh hitter friendly parks in the East he has potential (though last year he was awful vs the East). He fills a hole with his bat and has good speed. Again I'm not saying for sure sign him. But Marco does have injury concern too. Who knows how he comes back. Nunez gives the sox "potential" with the bat which Marco can't come close to. In particular Nunez hit very well in Fenway. And when he 1st came - Sox announcers mentioned his swing is good for Fenway. And he backed it up with his performance. Too many questions with the Sox hitters to be comfortable with Marco over Nunez imo. The catchers are a question. I'm not as optimistic as some regarding Hanley. He's a question as is Moreland and any of the 2b including Pedroia. I'm not as optimistic this year with Devers. Of course I think .270 and maybe a bit higher. But no more than 25hr's. I'd be surprised if his OPS is at best just a tad over .800 which is good but not great considering he may very well be the cleanup hitter. JBJ is also questionable as a hitter. And I'm not too optimistic of Brentz or Swihart. Same with the light hitting Holt. Not saying all these guys aren;'t all going to hit. But there are a lot of questions that a guy like Nunez has the potential to fill a lot better than Marco. And his value is that he plays the OF too. And MArco was imo a disaster at 3b I think. What do you think of Neil Walker for a short-term deal? I heard Yankees could try to get him too. Nice lefty bat, isn't he? He can play 2b, 1b and DH.
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Post by oilcan73 on Feb 9, 2018 2:40:24 GMT -5
Agreed. I think it is nearing the time to pull the offer for JDM and move on. Even if the Sox are able to ink him, he is already going to be starting off on bad footing. I think he ends up back in Arizona on a 1-year deal. I say re-sign Nunez who's flexibility will allow him to fill in for Pedroia, cover SS, 1B and 3B when needed and be a solid DH who seems to make things happen and add a LH piece in the bullpen. J DM will not make or break this team and I am glad that DD seems to be sticking to his line in the sand approach. I guess I just don't understand this line of thinking. JD Martinez > Eduardo Nunez and it really even isn't close. Nunez had two very good months last season. If you look at his past few years, he's really not that kind of player. He's a guy who can hit .280 - .300 with a little pop, but his OBP isn't that high because he doesn't walk. He will usually end up with an OPS around .750. His defense is mediocre to bad no matter where you put him. He's not in the same league offensively as JD Martinez and Nunez is hardly a strong defender. I don't see why being stubborn and losing out on a .900 OPS hitter for the middle of the order that they really need is worthy of slapping DD on the back and saying way to stick to your guns, way to not really improve last year's team which wasn't good enough. Are people really that concerned with John Henry keeping his money? Really if adding a 6th year is the difference maker and it makes the Sox that much stronger in 2018, 2019, and 2020, then why not do it? I never compared Nunez to JDM so I 'm not sure where you got that from. My line of thinking is I do not want to see another Hanley or Pablo contract. JDM may be good for another 2-3 years but after that they will be paying him $25-30 Million for 3 years of mediocrity. The guy will not play defense, cannot run and has a history of injuries. The fact that you want to just toss out a 6 year deal is crazy. At some point teams need to be disciplined and fiscally sane. Yes, I am concerned with the Sox keeping money if it means losing out on quality players in the future.
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Post by 07redsox on Feb 9, 2018 9:40:27 GMT -5
I'd rather play Marco Hernandez than sign Eduardo Nunez. I think we as Sox fans view Nunez as a better player than he is because he played well above any level he'd played at previously in his career after the trade. He slugged .537 after the trade, for example, when his previous career high for a season was .432. There's no reason to expect he'll hit nearly as well as he did after the trade, and as pointed out, he's not a strong defender either. I think Hernandez can do what Nunez does much more cheaply. My only pause on Hernandez is that I worry about rust early in the year when you'd most need him. Of the remaining free agents, I would only sign JD Martinez and a reliever or two, especially a lefty, to major league deals. Actually add Darvish or Arrieta if you can then move Porcello. I think Nunez is a pretty good option. Not the best. And I have no idea about his injury. But he hits. He's not in the pros for his defense. And if he had a full season in teh hitter friendly parks in the East he has potential (though last year he was awful vs the East). He fills a hole with his bat and has good speed. Again I'm not saying for sure sign him. But Marco does have injury concern too. Who knows how he comes back. Nunez gives the sox "potential" with the bat which Marco can't come close to. In particular Nunez hit very well in Fenway. And when he 1st came - Sox announcers mentioned his swing is good for Fenway. And he backed it up with his performance. Too many questions with the Sox hitters to be comfortable with Marco over Nunez imo. The catchers are a question. I'm not as optimistic as some regarding Hanley. He's a question as is Moreland and any of the 2b including Pedroia. I'm not as optimistic this year with Devers. Of course I think .270 and maybe a bit higher. But no more than 25hr's. I'd be surprised if his OPS is at best just a tad over .800 which is good but not great considering he may very well be the cleanup hitter. JBJ is also questionable as a hitter. And I'm not too optimistic of Brentz or Swihart. Same with the light hitting Holt. Not saying all these guys aren;'t all going to hit. But there are a lot of questions that a guy like Nunez has the potential to fill a lot better than Marco. And his value is that he plays the OF too. And MArco was imo a disaster at 3b I think. What do you think of Neil Walker for a short-term deal? I heard Yankees could try to get him too. Nice lefty bat, isn't he? He can play 2b, 1b and DH. He spent his first 5 seasons playing in the hitter friendly parks of the AL East while with the Yankees and its not like he light the league on fire with his hitting at that time. The only time he has actually had a slugging% over .400 is after he left the AL East (and this past overall season between SF and Boston). I do think there may be something to him having a nice swing for Fenway, but I don't think playing in the AL East is going to make him better all of a sudden (especially having played here before). It all comes down to the cost. If there isn't much of a market for him and you can get him on a nice deal then you of course go for it. But having Hernandez as the backup option on the cheap isn't too bad either.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 9, 2018 10:28:50 GMT -5
My point is that he doesn't really though. He's got a career 98 OPS+. Entering last year it was a 94. Career wRC+ of 97 that was a 92 entering 2017. He's been much better the last three years, but it's a 106 for both OPS+ and wRC+. Above average, yes, but it's not enough for me to salivate over the thought of re-signing him exactly. .296/.332/.443 over that time. That's a nice player to have, but I'm not convinced that Hernandez wouldn't at least come reasonably close to that for far less money. Call me bullish on Hernandez if you'd like. I probably am. Like I said, I do acknowledge the injury factor. I get that there are questions and agree, even if I don't necessarily have the same ones you do. My point is that Nunez isn't good enough to be the answer there. You solve questions at the plate by getting a guy like Martinez, not a guy who's slightly above-average at the plate. I could get behind signing Walker if JDM doesn't sign. There are health issues there that could both drive the price down and perhaps make him amenable to a 400-500-ab role.
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Post by soxjim on Feb 9, 2018 12:02:20 GMT -5
I think Nunez is a pretty good option. Not the best. And I have no idea about his injury. But he hits. He's not in the pros for his defense. And if he had a full season in teh hitter friendly parks in the East he has potential (though last year he was awful vs the East). He fills a hole with his bat and has good speed. Again I'm not saying for sure sign him. But Marco does have injury concern too. Who knows how he comes back. Nunez gives the sox "potential" with the bat which Marco can't come close to. In particular Nunez hit very well in Fenway. And when he 1st came - Sox announcers mentioned his swing is good for Fenway. And he backed it up with his performance. Too many questions with the Sox hitters to be comfortable with Marco over Nunez imo. The catchers are a question. I'm not as optimistic as some regarding Hanley. He's a question as is Moreland and any of the 2b including Pedroia. I'm not as optimistic this year with Devers. Of course I think .270 and maybe a bit higher. But no more than 25hr's. I'd be surprised if his OPS is at best just a tad over .800 which is good but not great considering he may very well be the cleanup hitter. JBJ is also questionable as a hitter. And I'm not too optimistic of Brentz or Swihart. Same with the light hitting Holt. Not saying all these guys aren;'t all going to hit. But there are a lot of questions that a guy like Nunez has the potential to fill a lot better than Marco. And his value is that he plays the OF too. And MArco was imo a disaster at 3b I think. What do you think of Neil Walker for a short-term deal? I heard Yankees could try to get him too. Nice lefty bat, isn't he? He can play 2b, 1b and DH. He spent his first 5 seasons playing in the hitter friendly parks of the AL East while with the Yankees and its not like he light the league on fire with his hitting at that time. The only time he has actually had a slugging% over .400 is after he left the AL East (and this past overall season between SF and Boston). I do think there may be something to him having a nice swing for Fenway, but I don't think playing in the AL East is going to make him better all of a sudden (especially having played here before). It all comes down to the cost. If there isn't much of a market for him and you can get him on a nice deal then you of course go for it. But having Hernandez as the backup option on the cheap isn't too bad either. I don't agree with you're using his 1st few seasons as relevant. I never understand this reasoning. IS JDM's 1st 3 seasons relevant as to what he is now? Matter of fact he wants to get paid now for his enormous season as though he'll be enormous over several years. As for my post, I felt I can't use it both ways against Nunez. He hit very well s the Non-east teams. Yet smoked it vs the non-east. But one thing I do know, he hit well in Fenway park and his bat fills a weakness. And I was arguing as to who the better player is. I'd rather have the better player who is more versatile/ higher ceiling with the bat provided the cost is reasonable. That's why though I'd prefer to have JDM n terms of ceiling (and at least for a couple of years he can play some of).
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Post by 07redsox on Feb 9, 2018 12:47:57 GMT -5
He spent his first 5 seasons playing in the hitter friendly parks of the AL East while with the Yankees and its not like he light the league on fire with his hitting at that time. The only time he has actually had a slugging% over .400 is after he left the AL East (and this past overall season between SF and Boston). I do think there may be something to him having a nice swing for Fenway, but I don't think playing in the AL East is going to make him better all of a sudden (especially having played here before). It all comes down to the cost. If there isn't much of a market for him and you can get him on a nice deal then you of course go for it. But having Hernandez as the backup option on the cheap isn't too bad either. I don't agree with you're using his 1st few seasons as relevant. I never understand this reasoning. IS JDM's 1st 3 seasons relevant as to what he is now? Matter of fact he wants to get paid now for his enormous season as though he'll be enormous over several years. As for my post, I felt I can't use it both ways against Nunez. He hit very well s the Non-east teams. Yet smoked it vs the non-east. But one thing I do know, he hit well in Fenway park and his bat fills a weakness. And I was arguing as to who the better player is. I'd rather have the better player who is more versatile/ higher ceiling with the bat provided the cost is reasonable. That's why though I'd prefer to have JDM n terms of ceiling (and at least for a couple of years he can play some of). Comparing JDM first few seasons and the first few seasons of Nunez's career is like comparing apples to oranges. One of those players became a completely different hitter while the other has been pretty consistent in who they are as a hitter. I only brought up his past seasons since you said the hitter friendly parks of the AL East may help him. If he was a different hitter now compared to his days with the Yankees you may be on to something. However, I don't really that's true. I agree that using past seasons isn't always relevant, but when those past years match up pretty well with what they have also been doing recently it can help show you what that player is (including consistency). As was posted above, throughout his career he has ranged from very slightly below average to very slightly above average offensively. He may have hit well in Fenway last year, but that was over the course of two months. You can't expect him to do that again over the course of a full season. I would certainly love to have him back. However, I wouldn't expect much more than a .280/.330/.420 line if he did. That's still a decent player, but I guess I fall more in the camp of Hernandez being able to provide close to that value for a cheaper cost as well. Nunez may be more "versatile", but that doesn't mean he should be. He's really not a good defender anywhere he plays. And I believe (without looking it up) Hernandez can play a few of the IF positions as well. That's part of the reason why I feel money may be better spent elsewhere.
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Post by soxjim on Feb 9, 2018 13:28:22 GMT -5
My point is that he doesn't really though. He's got a career 98 OPS+. Entering last year it was a 94. Career wRC+ of 97 that was a 92 entering 2017. He's been much better the last three years, but it's a 106 for both OPS+ and wRC+. Above average, yes, but it's not enough for me to salivate over the thought of re-signing him exactly. .296/.332/.443 over that time. That's a nice player to have, but I'm not convinced that Hernandez wouldn't at least come reasonably close to that for far less money. Call me bullish on Hernandez if you'd like. I probably am. Like I said, I do acknowledge the injury factor. I get that there are questions and agree, even if I don't necessarily have the same ones you do. My point is that Nunez isn't good enough to be the answer there. You solve questions at the plate by getting a guy like Martinez, not a guy who's slightly above-average at the plate. I could get behind signing Walker if JDM doesn't sign. There are health issues there that could both drive the price down and perhaps make him amenable to a 400-500-ab role. Chris-- as I said in a prior post will always say this- where am I going wrong? Why use "career" numbers to justify what a player is today? Nunez hit in Fenway. In Fenway his slash line was .340/.361/.521/.882. These numbers are real. What is real is that I heard and many of us did is that Nunez has a "Fenway swing." What is real is that he went out and produced in Fenway. You hear all the time about pressure and can so-and-so player produce in Boston-- this guy did. So-- if what is said is correct is that Nunez does have a Fenway swing-- why should his rookie year/early years or any other non-Fenway years count equally and be used as barometer vs what he can potentially do and has done at Fenway? If his swing is a "Fenway swing" it would mean he is probably "a hitter" for the Red Sox. It's not a lock that he is nor is it a lock that he has a Fenway swing good enouhg to produce. But that's why he in no way is going to get "a big" contract. He has big limitations just like any other bench player. I do like Marco's game - for what he is. I hope the injury is no issue this year. He can play 2nd and short along with spot 3rd. It's just that I'm bullish with Nunez bat if spending up to $237m is an option because what I heard early on is that he has "that swing." So if I believe he has the Fenway swing (which he produced with my own eyes) - then I got to believe he is a hitter - at least for the Red Sox. But as long as the SOx get JDM-- then I'd pass on Nunez (not happy with the Sox getting Moreland). If no JDM then I think Nunez can be a decent enough (he can play the OF and 2b, ss, 3b and DH) pickup provided he is healthy. Which he may not be. Nunez is nowhere near JDM ( don't want anyone coming back to bite me that I'm comparing Nunez to JDM) but I've stated many times I'm bullish on the Sox starting pitching (though I would like another good reliever. Hoping Johnson can "convince/produce" Sox to keep him as both). So I think the Sox can win enough games without JDM. As far as Nunez, overall though I would prefer Walker which is why I asked you about him. He's a very good lh hitter. Can spot Pedroia. Can also be in the Moreland/Hanley/Walker mix.
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Post by soxjim on Feb 9, 2018 13:48:07 GMT -5
I don't agree with you're using his 1st few seasons as relevant. I never understand this reasoning. IS JDM's 1st 3 seasons relevant as to what he is now? Matter of fact he wants to get paid now for his enormous season as though he'll be enormous over several years. As for my post, I felt I can't use it both ways against Nunez. He hit very well s the Non-east teams. Yet smoked it vs the non-east. But one thing I do know, he hit well in Fenway park and his bat fills a weakness. And I was arguing as to who the better player is. I'd rather have the better player who is more versatile/ higher ceiling with the bat provided the cost is reasonable. That's why though I'd prefer to have JDM n terms of ceiling (and at least for a couple of years he can play some of). Comparing JDM first few seasons and the first few seasons of Nunez's career is like comparing apples to oranges. One of those players became a completely different hitter while the other has been pretty consistent in who they are as a hitter. I only brought up his past seasons since you said the hitter friendly parks of the AL East may help him. If he was a different hitter now compared to his days with the Yankees you may be on to something. However, I don't really that's true. I agree that using past seasons isn't always relevant, but when those past years match up pretty well with what they have also been doing recently it can help show you what that player is (including consistency). As was posted above, throughout his career he has ranged from very slightly below average to very slightly above average offensively. He may have hit well in Fenway last year, but that was over the course of two months. You can't expect him to do that again over the course of a full season. I would certainly love to have him back. However, I wouldn't expect much more than a .280/.330/.420 line if he did. That's still a decent player, but I guess I fall more in the camp of Hernandez being able to provide close to that value for a cheaper cost as well. Nunez may be more "versatile", but that doesn't mean he should be. He's really not a good defender anywhere he plays. And I believe (without looking it up) Hernandez can play a few of the IF positions as well. That's part of the reason why I feel money may be better spent elsewhere. I don't agree. When you hear the moment the Sox got him. that he has a "Fenway swing" -- then imo it is just the same as comparing apples to oranges when you use stats from other years. If you don't believe he has the Fenway swing sure. I can see your point. But if he has it-- it means he'll probably hit well in Fenway. And as far as hitting in friendly parks in the AL East-- there is a reason why they call them "hitter friendly." Not just the very good hitters can hit there. Sure-- he might not. But if at worst he has the Fenway swing -- and along with he is hitting a lot in friendly parks-- he'll probably be a better hitter than his career numbers show. So maybe you are right about other parks in AL East but overall I think the odds are much more in his favor that he'd be quite a bit better regarding career numbers when he has many games in Fenway and in friendly confines of several other hitter ballparks. - Overall his numbers I'd expect to be higher. Why wouldn't they be with more opportunities playing in parks that favor your swing or aren't as hard as parks like San Fran to hit? Sure- he can turn into Pablo. He is a risk. That's why he isn't getting a big contract. And regardless - I think looking at 1st few years is irrelevant vs an experienced player at 30 or above who has now in much more favorable conditions along with being much more experienced. IMO if you are an experience player and all of sudden you get put into a park that fits your swing and then you play in many more "hitter friendly" parks than you have in the past, comparing "the-here-and-now" to the past is a lot like comparing apples to oranges. The circumstances are not just "slightly different" but they are "completely different."
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 9, 2018 15:18:12 GMT -5
Per Mlbtraderumors on Nunez-
"He’s also taken his offensive game to a new level in recent seasons, slashing .296/.332/.443 in 1290 plate appearances for the Twins, Giants and Red Sox dating back to the 2015 campaign."
I think Nunez' value is in his bat and spot filling in where he needs to. He probably gets a boost from playing in Fenway half of the time (seems to pull a lot of balls in the air), but who knows how good offensively he will be in the next 2 to 3 years.
I wouldn't be opposed to Nunez platooning with Marco to start the year and filling in for Devers when needed.
He seems to be a better option than Morrison at this point.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 9, 2018 15:31:58 GMT -5
My point is that he doesn't really though. He's got a career 98 OPS+. Entering last year it was a 94. Career wRC+ of 97 that was a 92 entering 2017. He's been much better the last three years, but it's a 106 for both OPS+ and wRC+. Above average, yes, but it's not enough for me to salivate over the thought of re-signing him exactly. .296/.332/.443 over that time. That's a nice player to have, but I'm not convinced that Hernandez wouldn't at least come reasonably close to that for far less money. Call me bullish on Hernandez if you'd like. I probably am. Like I said, I do acknowledge the injury factor. I get that there are questions and agree, even if I don't necessarily have the same ones you do. My point is that Nunez isn't good enough to be the answer there. You solve questions at the plate by getting a guy like Martinez, not a guy who's slightly above-average at the plate. I could get behind signing Walker if JDM doesn't sign. There are health issues there that could both drive the price down and perhaps make him amenable to a 400-500-ab role. Chris-- as I said in a prior post will always say this- where am I going wrong? Why use "career" numbers to justify what a player is today? Nunez hit in Fenway. In Fenway his slash line was .340/.361/.521/.882. These numbers are real. What is real is that I heard and many of us did is that Nunez has a "Fenway swing." What is real is that he went out and produced in Fenway. You hear all the time about pressure and can so-and-so player produce in Boston-- this guy did. So-- if what is said is correct is that Nunez does have a Fenway swing-- why should his rookie year/early years or any other non-Fenway years count equally and be used as barometer vs what he can potentially do and has done at Fenway? If his swing is a "Fenway swing" it would mean he is probably "a hitter" for the Red Sox. It's not a lock that he is nor is it a lock that he has a Fenway swing good enouhg to produce. But that's why he in no way is going to get "a big" contract. He has big limitations just like any other bench player. I do like Marco's game - for what he is. I hope the injury is no issue this year. He can play 2nd and short along with spot 3rd. It's just that I'm bullish with Nunez bat if spending up to $237m is an option because what I heard early on is that he has "that swing." So if I believe he has the Fenway swing (which he produced with my own eyes) - then I got to believe he is a hitter - at least for the Red Sox. But as long as the SOx get JDM-- then I'd pass on Nunez (not happy with the Sox getting Moreland). If no JDM then I think Nunez can be a decent enough (he can play the OF and 2b, ss, 3b and DH) pickup provided he is healthy. Which he may not be. Nunez is nowhere near JDM ( don't want anyone coming back to bite me that I'm comparing Nunez to JDM) but I've stated many times I'm bullish on the Sox starting pitching (though I would like another good reliever. Hoping Johnson can "convince/produce" Sox to keep him as both). So I think the Sox can win enough games without JDM. As far as Nunez, overall though I would prefer Walker which is why I asked you about him. He's a very good lh hitter. Can spot Pedroia. Can also be in the Moreland/Hanley/Walker mix. The reason why I don't look agree with you is because I don't believe that what Nunez did in 22 games in Fenway last year, as great as it was (.340/.361/.521) with a .359 BABIP is a sign of what he would do over the course of an entire season, even just at home. But let's actually look at it rather than just going back and forth - maybe you're right. We use career numbers because it gives us a better picture of what kind of a hitter the player is over a larger sample size. Of course, Nunez has obviously been a much better hitter from 2015 on, which is why I included those stats in my post as well. Doesn't take a brain surgeon to look at his career numbers and see he's a better hitter from 2015 on, so let's just use that sample. From the start of 2015 until the time of the trade, Nunez was a .292/.328/.428 hitter. 102 wRC+. In other words, a nice hitter, but only a bit above league average. In other words, "new" Nunez went from being a below-average hitter to a average-to-slightly-better hitter. He had a .319 BABIP in that time, to give us a baseline of what we can expect, if his BIP numbers are constant going forward. He spiked to a .321/.353/.539 after the trade in 173 PA. .341 BABIP, so luck will account for some of that if, again, his BIP numbers are constant. His BIP #'s before (2015-July 2017) and after the trade: Before Season Team PA GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH% Pull% Cent% Oppo% Soft% Med% Hard% Total 2 Tms 1116 1.7 16.9% 52.5% 30.6% 12.8% 8.8% 9.4% 44.4% 37.6% 35.6% 26.7% 22.7% 50.9% 26.4% After Season Team PA GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH% Pull% Cent% Oppo% Soft% Med% Hard% Total BOS 173 1.5 16.5% 50.4% 33.1% 10.9% 17.4% 12.9% 100.0% 43.6% 32.1% 24.3% 20.7% 49.3% 30.0% Looking at that, the only change of obvious significance is that his fly balls left the park at twice the rate they were before relative to the number of fly balls he hit. Looking at his spray chart, it would seem that this is probably because of Fenway - since 2015, all but one of his 34 home runs were pulled. HOWEVER, it doesn't look that way. Of his 8 home runs after the trade, 4 were at home and 4 were on the road. His HR/FB was EXACTLY THE SAME both at home and on the road, 17.4%, and eyeballing it, his BIP numbers both home and away are pretty consistent during that time, SSS as it is. So after looking at this, I see no reason to think his numbers won't regress most of the way back to the hitter he was from April 2015 through July 2017, although I think it'd make sense to think some of the power might stay. Maybe something like a .295/.330/.450? Like I said, that's not bad, but it's also not anything like the .321/.353/.539 he was after the trade. I think it's unreasonable to assume that after the trade he became a different hitter, and looking at the numbers, I think it's just as unreasonable to assume that Fenway accounted for the same hitter finding as much more success as he did. Of course, if someone smarter than me sees something different here, please let me know!
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 9, 2018 15:45:21 GMT -5
Thanks Chris, I was just about to do all that work and now I don't have to.
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Post by soxjim on Feb 9, 2018 17:47:40 GMT -5
Chris-- as I said in a prior post will always say this- where am I going wrong? Why use "career" numbers to justify what a player is today? Nunez hit in Fenway. In Fenway his slash line was .340/.361/.521/.882. These numbers are real. What is real is that I heard and many of us did is that Nunez has a "Fenway swing." What is real is that he went out and produced in Fenway. You hear all the time about pressure and can so-and-so player produce in Boston-- this guy did. So-- if what is said is correct is that Nunez does have a Fenway swing-- why should his rookie year/early years or any other non-Fenway years count equally and be used as barometer vs what he can potentially do and has done at Fenway? If his swing is a "Fenway swing" it would mean he is probably "a hitter" for the Red Sox. It's not a lock that he is nor is it a lock that he has a Fenway swing good enouhg to produce. But that's why he in no way is going to get "a big" contract. He has big limitations just like any other bench player. I do like Marco's game - for what he is. I hope the injury is no issue this year. He can play 2nd and short along with spot 3rd. It's just that I'm bullish with Nunez bat if spending up to $237m is an option because what I heard early on is that he has "that swing." So if I believe he has the Fenway swing (which he produced with my own eyes) - then I got to believe he is a hitter - at least for the Red Sox. But as long as the SOx get JDM-- then I'd pass on Nunez (not happy with the Sox getting Moreland). If no JDM then I think Nunez can be a decent enough (he can play the OF and 2b, ss, 3b and DH) pickup provided he is healthy. Which he may not be. Nunez is nowhere near JDM ( don't want anyone coming back to bite me that I'm comparing Nunez to JDM) but I've stated many times I'm bullish on the Sox starting pitching (though I would like another good reliever. Hoping Johnson can "convince/produce" Sox to keep him as both). So I think the Sox can win enough games without JDM. As far as Nunez, overall though I would prefer Walker which is why I asked you about him. He's a very good lh hitter. Can spot Pedroia. Can also be in the Moreland/Hanley/Walker mix. The reason why I don't look agree with you is because I don't believe that what Nunez did in 22 games in Fenway last year, as great as it was (.340/.361/.521) with a .359 BABIP is a sign of what he would do over the course of an entire season, even just at home. But let's actually look at it rather than just going back and forth - maybe you're right. We use career numbers because it gives us a better picture of what kind of a hitter the player is over a larger sample size. Of course, Nunez has obviously been a much better hitter from 2015 on, which is why I included those stats in my post as well. Doesn't take a brain surgeon to look at his career numbers and see he's a better hitter from 2015 on, so let's just use that sample. From the start of 2015 until the time of the trade, Nunez was a .292/.328/.428 hitter. 102 wRC+. In other words, a nice hitter, but only a bit above league average. In other words, "new" Nunez went from being a below-average hitter to a average-to-slightly-better hitter. He had a .319 BABIP in that time, to give us a baseline of what we can expect, if his BIP numbers are constant going forward. He spiked to a .321/.353/.539 after the trade in 173 PA. .341 BABIP, so luck will account for some of that if, again, his BIP numbers are constant. His BIP #'s before (2015-July 2017) and after the trade: Before Season Team PA GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH% Pull% Cent% Oppo% Soft% Med% Hard% Total 2 Tms 1116 1.7 16.9% 52.5% 30.6% 12.8% 8.8% 9.4% 44.4% 37.6% 35.6% 26.7% 22.7% 50.9% 26.4% After Season Team PA GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH% Pull% Cent% Oppo% Soft% Med% Hard% Total BOS 173 1.5 16.5% 50.4% 33.1% 10.9% 17.4% 12.9% 100.0% 43.6% 32.1% 24.3% 20.7% 49.3% 30.0% Looking at that, the only change of obvious significance is that his fly balls left the park at twice the rate they were before relative to the number of fly balls he hit. Looking at his spray chart, it would seem that this is probably because of Fenway - since 2015, all but one of his 34 home runs were pulled. HOWEVER, it doesn't look that way. Of his 8 home runs after the trade, 4 were at home and 4 were on the road. His HR/FB was EXACTLY THE SAME both at home and on the road, 17.4%, and eyeballing it, his BIP numbers both home and away are pretty consistent during that time, SSS as it is. So after looking at this, I see no reason to think his numbers won't regress most of the way back to the hitter he was from April 2015 through July 2017, although I think it'd make sense to think some of the power might stay. Maybe something like a .295/.330/.450? Like I said, that's not bad, but it's also not anything like the .321/.353/.539 he was after the trade. I think it's unreasonable to assume that after the trade he became a different hitter, and looking at the numbers, I think it's just as unreasonable to assume that Fenway accounted for the same hitter finding as much more success as he did. Of course, if someone smarter than me sees something different here, please let me know! Now let me ask you this-- if he has a "Fenway swing" wouldn't over the course of larger sample size show he'll hit better at Fenway than at other parks? And secondly, if he hits more in "hitter friendly parks" wouldn't more balls fly out rather than just be long fly outs in more pitcher type parks such as San Fran and LA? Isn't the pull from the same fly over the green monster equal to some of the same fly outs in San Fran? He's a pull hitter in Fenway park where he can also get a bunch of cheap wall-balls too. Why wouldn't 2017 be a much greater factor to look at vs 2015 and 2016? Wouldn't 2015 and 2016 tell us more what he'll do away from Fenway? However -- some analysis would need to be done of how his pull hitting plays in hitter friendly parks vs pitchers parks too but I digress from the Fenway point. Wouldn't his ability to pull at Fenway change his numbers if he has the swing? Not all parks and hitters parks are the same so if you can't hit well to rf, then Yankee stadium I would guess is not a hitters park. But for a pull hitter in Fenway (or a left that goes well the other way)- I would think he'd be much more effective rather than using stats from San Fran as an equal barometer to then draw a conclusion. So when you hear for example that a player righty or lefty "has a Fenway swing" that it means little to nothing even if he shows he's produced? What would "a Fenway swing" mean if you didn't expect the player with said swing to produce higher numbers? The left field in San Fran is much different than the left field at Fenway so why should they be compared equally? Unless "the Fenway swing" is a myth? I'm just adding comment to what I heard when Nunez 1st arrived to Boston. The announcers said he has that swing that fits right into Boston. To use other numbers that aren't "Boston" - doesn't capture what Nunez is the moment he steps into that box at Fenway. Most likely he is going to pull the ball to the short left field wiht greater chances of getting cheap wall balls and home runs that would otherwise be outs in San Fran.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 9, 2018 18:18:37 GMT -5
If Martinez doesn't sign here and other options include Nunez or Morrison. Then give me Nunez. At least he's versatile defensively.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 9, 2018 18:24:45 GMT -5
Now let me ask you this-- if he has a "Fenway swing" wouldn't over the course of larger sample size show he'll hit better at Fenway than at other parks? ... (plus the rest of your post other than the quote below) The whole point of my post was that there is nothing to this "Fenway swing" thing you're latching on to. He might get a little bit more power from pulling fly balls to left, but I believe based on what I posted above that he'd see regression over a larger sample size to about what he did in 2015-July 2017. Statistics like OPS+ and wRC+ are league- and park-adjusted, which is why I cited those numbers. As for SF's home park, it's bad for home runs but very good for BIP numbers, so you would actually expect his batting average to be about the same between there and Fenway. Also, his 2015 season and the first 65% or so of his 2016 season he played for Minnesota, a neutral park. (As for road parks, he's playing in Colorado and Arizona as often as LA and SD - which isn't nearly as bad of a pitcher's park anymore - in the NL West, and the AL Central is generally a shade hitter-friendly, so I'm not sure there's an argument to be made that his previous numbers were negatively affected by the parks he played in anyway.) You need to let go of the "Fenway swing" thing, I think. Again, the entire point of my above post was to show that while his numbers went up while he played for the Red Sox versus the previous 2.5 seasons in Minnesota and San Franscisco, much of that, save for perhaps a bit of power, was likely due to BIP luck. Just look at his home/road splits after the trade: Home: 97 PA, .340/.361/.521, .359 BABIP Road: 76 PA, .296/.342/.563, .315 BABIP His power, which you would expect to go up in a place like Fenway with a short porch to left where all his power is, went DOWN at home. He also had a much higher batting average, which looks mostly attributable to better BIP luck. Look, I'd assumed this part was understood, but it's insane to think that the park alone is going to make him go from a .430 slug guy to a .530 slug guy. That's insane unless we're talking pre-humidor Coors Field. His wRC+ was 100 in San Francisco and 133 in Boston. His OPS+ 99 to 129. Again, these numbers are park and league adjusted. I get what you're saying - they're not necessarily adjusted to how a given player fits in a park. But that alone isn't going to make an average hitter into a player who is 33% better than the average hitter when adjusting for park and league (a very rough estimate of what wRC+ means).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 9, 2018 18:26:57 GMT -5
If Martinez doesn't sign here and other options include Nunez or Morrison. Then give me Nunez. At least he's versatile defensively. Question though - once Pedroia is healthy, do you think there's more likely to be playing time available at 2B/SS/3B or at 1B/DH? To me it's very clearly the latter, even accepting that Pedroia will need some time off. I guess if you think the former then yeah, Nunez makes more sense.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 9, 2018 18:38:36 GMT -5
If Martinez doesn't sign here and other options include Nunez or Morrison. Then give me Nunez. At least he's versatile defensively. Question though - once Pedroia is healthy, do you think there's more likely to be playing time available at 2B/SS/3B or at 1B/DH? To me it's very clearly the latter, even accepting that Pedroia will need some time off. I guess if you think the former then yeah, Nunez makes more sense. Yeah, you never know with in season struggles with Devers and Xander. Devers is going through his first full year and Xander could be changing his approach next year by a lot or a little with the new coaching staff. Then you have Pedrioa who is a question mark health wise until he proves he can be out there everyday. Nevermind the freak injury possibility. Morrison sounds like a dread to me. Career highs in mostly every department, probably a product of the juiced ball. Dead pull hitter in Fenway Park. Just a bad fit. I don't know what the Sox are thinking there. I'd rather have Duda than Morrison. I'd probably take Nunez or Braun over any of those options. Please just sign Martinez.
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giltg
Veteran
When the eagle is silent , the parrots begin to jabber.
Posts: 274
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Post by giltg on Feb 9, 2018 18:45:34 GMT -5
Brock Holt Blake Swihart Deven Marrero Marco Hernandez Tzu-Wei Lin Esteban Quiroz. Granted none of these players have the power like Eduardo Nunez but they're about seven to eight million dollars a year cheaper than Nunez would be. I think all of these players who are currently on the Red Sox roster could play any of the positions that Nunez could play. Tzu-Wei and Quiroz may not be able to cover first base but they would do an adequate job in the outfield. I love the way Nunez played for the Sox before getting injured but I would stick with what they have on their roster.
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Post by soxjim on Feb 9, 2018 20:04:58 GMT -5
Now let me ask you this-- if he has a "Fenway swing" wouldn't over the course of larger sample size show he'll hit better at Fenway than at other parks? ... (plus the rest of your post other than the quote below) The whole point of my post was that there is nothing to this "Fenway swing" thing you're latching on to. He might get a little bit more power from pulling fly balls to left, but I believe based on what I posted above that he'd see regression over a larger sample size to about what he did in 2015-July 2017. Statistics like OPS+ and wRC+ are league- and park-adjusted, which is why I cited those numbers. As for SF's home park, it's bad for home runs but very good for BIP numbers, so you would actually expect his batting average to be about the same between there and Fenway. Also, his 2015 season and the first 65% or so of his 2016 season he played for Minnesota, a neutral park. (As for road parks, he's playing in Colorado and Arizona as often as LA and SD - which isn't nearly as bad of a pitcher's park anymore - in the NL West, and the AL Central is generally a shade hitter-friendly, so I'm not sure there's an argument to be made that his previous numbers were negatively affected by the parks he played in anyway.) You need to let go of the "Fenway swing" thing, I think. Again, the entire point of my above post was to show that while his numbers went up while he played for the Red Sox versus the previous 2.5 seasons in Minnesota and San Franscisco, much of that, save for perhaps a bit of power, was likely due to BIP luck. Just look at his home/road splits after the trade: Home: 97 PA, .340/.361/.521, .359 BABIP Road: 76 PA, .296/.342/.563, .315 BABIP His power, which you would expect to go up in a place like Fenway with a short porch to left where all his power is, went DOWN at home. He also had a much higher batting average, which looks mostly attributable to better BIP luck. Look, I'd assumed this part was understood, but it's insane to think that the park alone is going to make him go from a .430 slug guy to a .530 slug guy. That's insane unless we're talking pre-humidor Coors Field. His wRC+ was 100 in San Francisco and 133 in Boston. His OPS+ 99 to 129. Again, these numbers are park and league adjusted. I get what you're saying - they're not necessarily adjusted to how a given player fits in a park. But that alone isn't going to make an average hitter into a player who is 33% better than the average hitter when adjusting for park and league (a very rough estimate of what wRC+ means). I'm only latching onto it because I heard the SOx announcers say it when he 1st came or i heard it on the radio etc. If he doesn't have it then okay - I agree with you. But I know I heard it. I can't prove that I heard it. As far as initial look though it looks like he does. I got no dog in this - anyways I want JDM. But I did some quick googles and below this is the type of "stuff" I heard- which backs up (what I mean by back up is that I didn't make it up. I don't mean it proves me right. You and others know much more about swing path etc than I. I just want to make it a point I didn't dream this stuff up.) with what I say I heard when he 1st came along with what I've seen with my own eyes along with what makes sense. It makes sense to believe a guy that is a pulled hitter might very well benefit quite a bit from playing in Fenway. I say "might." I agree with you -- he might not which is why Nunez gets small contracts only. He's a risk. The below quotes from the articles reflect what I feel of Nunez. I'm not making up what I heard. I feel the article below with the quotes I highlighted makes makes sense. Which is why imo Nunez is a hitter ofc depending on his injury. The 1st and 2nd articles are more of what I heard other announcers say of Nunez's swing. Though I'm no Farrell fan but I can say I heard what Farrell is quoted as saying in the article. Overall didn't the numbers you gave me show he pulled the ball more 7% of the time once he came to Boston? Now what you do with Eduardo is play him much more at Fenway than on the road thus as you state he'll eventually come back to reality on the road -- but at home imo he'll produce much better - and he'll be focused on pulling more. Thus as we get to see more numbers - imo it will probably show his pulling the ball in Fenway is superior to his on the road numbers. The road numbers will move more back to his mean. Not his numbers at Fenway. I can't deny the swing effect when I've seen it with my own eyes and it sounds logical and I heard others say the same thing. Though the 1st two links are the same thing - probably the same quote. But even the article headline mentions Nunez swing is a great fit for Fenway. This is what I'm latching on to because I've seen it be real. bangordailynews.com/2017/08/08/sports/boston-red-sox/so-far-eduardo-nunez-pickup-paying-off/“From what we’ve seen so far on this homestand,” Red Sox manager John Farrell said, “his swing path plays real well in this ballpark.”nesn.com/2017/08/red-sox-notes-why-eduardo-nunezs-swing-is-great-fit-for-fenway-park/“I think for right-handers that have a tendency to pull the baseball, this is a good ballpark for them,” Red Sox manager John Farrell told reporters after Sunday’s game, as aired on NESN. “… At least what we’ve seen in the 10 days he’s been here, yeah, his swing plays real well in this ballpark.” www.overthemonster.com/2017/8/9/16117650/eduardo-nunez-red-sox-lineup-the-greatest-player-of-all-time"The first and most obvious change would be a simple change in home. Going from San Francisco to Boston, Nuñez got to experience one of the biggest upticks possible in park effects for a hitter. The Giants, of course, play in one of the biggest pitchers’ havens in all of baseball, while Fenway can be an extra-base haven if it’s used correctly, particularly for right-handed hitters. That alone makes him a good bet to be better than he was in his time in San Francisco."
"To go along with the simple change in park, Nuñez has adjusted his swing to perform at Fenway. As a right-handed hitter, he obviously has that big ol’ green wall out in left field that he can abuse for doubles and home runs if he’s able to pull the ball. While in San Francisco, he had a relatively balanced approach and used the whole field. Since coming to Boston, he’s started pulling the ball over 50 percent of the time. Some players go into a funk when they see the Green Monster as they try too hard to use it to their advantage. That...well that hasn’t been an issue for Nuñez. It’s also worth noting that on Tuesday, his first road game with the Red Sox, he had an opposite field double. If he’s able to change his approach based on which park he’s in and still have the same kind of success, he is truly locked in and a good bet to keep a strong performance going. To go along with the pull-happy approach, Nuñez is also hitting the ball in the air a lot more — another good recipe for extra-base hits — and is simply hitting the ball harder. None of this is a surprise if you’ve been watching him hit".
"Between the change in park and Nuñez’ ability to adjust his swing to maximize Fenway’s hitter-friendliness, I think it’s fair to change the expectations for Nuñez moving forward. He’s clearly able to put up better numbers than he did with the Giants, and he could use Fenway to put up the best power numbers he’s ever produced. The Red Sox still need the core of their lineup to produce if they’re going to consistently put runs on the board, but don’t be surprised if Nuñez continues to be one of the three or four best hitters in the lineup for the rest of the year."
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 9, 2018 20:47:24 GMT -5
Geeze, you just reminded why I won't miss John Farrell.
Swing Path John Farrell? Is that really even a baseball term?
Listening to him is cringe worthy.
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Post by jiant2520 on Feb 9, 2018 21:10:42 GMT -5
I would be ok with Nunez on a 1yr deal, say 9 mil, if JD is gone, but I doubt he takes that.
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Post by jiant2520 on Feb 9, 2018 21:11:14 GMT -5
His defense is bad, really bad.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Feb 10, 2018 1:06:19 GMT -5
If Brentz hits cover off ball in spring ... and continues into April, it will make roster decisions tough.
Even his fan club sees no spot on the roster, barring an injury
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Post by jmei on Feb 10, 2018 3:07:54 GMT -5
Geeze, you just reminded why I won't miss John Farrell. Swing Path John Farrell? Is that really even a baseball term? Listening to him is cringe worthy. Uh, swing path is most definitely a real baseball term.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 10, 2018 7:14:17 GMT -5
Geeze, you just reminded why I won't miss John Farrell. Swing Path John Farrell? Is that really even a baseball term? Listening to him is cringe worthy. Uh, swing path is most definitely a real baseball term. Maybe it is, but Farrell can't talk to the media all that well. I don't know how many people would bring up a swing path when relating it to a ballpark. I remember when he told all of us that he thought he had 5 aces going into 2015. The "shape of an offspeed pitch," when describing a pitchers offspeed pitch throughout the years. There are at least a dozen other John Farrell innuendos that I'm sure I'm missing. I'm just glad I don't have to listen to it. Cora is so much better at speaking with the media, even in his second language of English.
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