SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 4, 2018 12:24:39 GMT -5
I'm putting Price in the bullpen in the postseason regardless of what happens in the regular season and who they face in the postseason. I've seen bullpen ace David Price in the playoffs last year and there was a lot to love there. If the argument is that Price can’t handle the pressure of the playoffs or playing the Yankees, why would he pitch better in a high-leverage bullpen role than as a starter? The uptick in velocity. He's better in shorter stints.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jul 4, 2018 13:04:15 GMT -5
. And he opts out under the pressure? Logic says no, that he won't approach that kind of money in free agency. He says he loves playing with his teammates, so his problems don't seem internal. He gives off the vibe that he doesn't enjoy Boston and it's obvious he doesn't like dealing with the media. He doesn't seem happy, but who knows? On one hand I'd be thrilled to see him walk away and the $31 million/year open up for the Sox to spend elsewhere. Price has declined from where he was when the Sox signed him. He's not the ace he was in TB, Toronto, or Detroit - and if he declines further from being a good pitcher - well that money looks even bigger, and there's always the increased concern of injury with him. On the other hand, I don't know that there's a free agent starter you're going to want to throw money at and there is no real replacement in the minors and the Sox don't have what it takes in the minors to make the next Chris Sale deal, if there's one like that out there, so replacing what Price is now won't be as easy as it would seem. You're not going to plug Jalen Beeks or Brian Johnson into the rotation and feel like you've replaced Price. If forced to guess, I'd say Price sticks around. Lol, I was being facetious. There’s no way he’s forgoing $124M the way he’s pitching. He’d be looking at, what, maybe a 3/36 deal given his health issues? I think if you’re Price you keep chugging away and try being positive (I agree 100% about your perception...there’s *some* chip on his shoulder), and if you’re the Sox you accept that he’s your 3 and might, for stretches, pitch like his old self.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jul 4, 2018 13:13:05 GMT -5
I'm seriously tempted to just close this thread. Price had one bad game. In his previous nine, he was 56.1-44-17-17-17-57 with a 2.72 ERA. Even after last night, he's at worst one of the top 50 or 60 starting pitchers in baseball (34th in xFIP, 54th in fWAR, 56th in bWAR) this season. Meanwhile, this team is starting Brian Johnson tonight. The answer to question in the thread title is "start him every fifth game," and there really is no alternative answer that makes sense. On one hand, we want to encourage posters to feel free to post and start new threads and the like, so for now we'll leave this and I'll just hope it dies on the vine. But on the other, we're not going to have threads on the forum about what needs to be done with the club's second- or third-best starter every time he has a bad game against one of the top offenses in baseball. hahahaha ......Well said boss!! edit: I could use some help understanding all those numbers though. After 40+ years I am still a neophyte. Fangraphs has a great glossary for understanding this stuff. If you go to fangraphs.com and use the LH top drop-down menu, there’s a “glossary” tab. Here’s the page for FIP (fielding independent pitching; xFIP is expected FIP, which is basically FIP with a pitcher’s HR rate per fly ball normalized to league average). www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/I love fangraphs as an intro to the whole discussion of advanced stats; from there I recommend going to baseballsavant.mlb.com and www.brooksbaseball.net (pitch f/x data and more) for all sorts of fun stuff.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jul 4, 2018 13:20:15 GMT -5
I'm putting Price in the bullpen in the postseason regardless of what happens in the regular season and who they face in the postseason. I've seen bullpen ace David Price in the playoffs last year and there was a lot to love there. If the argument is that Price can’t handle the pressure of the playoffs or playing the Yankees, why would he pitch better in a high-leverage bullpen role than as a starter? It’s almost as if there’s no internal logical consistency here and it’s just overreaction based on small sample sizes. In fairness, the two times he has been used as a reliever in the playoffs, he’s been great. They were years apart (career bookends), but for whatever reason he seems like a different pitcher in that situation. I’m not a firm believer in a pitcher being hopeless and staying that way in the playoffs (Clemens comes to mind), because I believe in regression. My inclination is to keep him in the rotation come playoff time. Certainly during the regular season. But an adjustment might be necessary if he has a stinker but they advance anyway. Hell, they could even try a TB-style or piggyback him in after 3 innings.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 4, 2018 13:23:20 GMT -5
If the argument is that Price can’t handle the pressure of the playoffs or playing the Yankees, why would he pitch better in a high-leverage bullpen role than as a starter? It’s almost as if there’s no internal logical consistency here and it’s just overreaction based on small sample sizes. In fairness, the two times he has been used as a reliever in the playoffs, he’s been great. They were years apart (career bookends), but for whatever reason he seems like a different pitcher in that situation. I’m not a firm believer in a pitcher being hopeless and staying that way in the playoffs (Clemens comes to mind), because I believe in regression. My inclination is to keep him in the rotation come playoff time. Certainly during the regular season. But an adjustment might be necessary if he has a stinker but they advance anyway. Hell, they could even try a TB-style or piggyback him in after 3 innings. And in those two years in the bullpen, he barely pitched in each season so he was probably much more rested. That could easily skew everyone's opinion since it could be the precise reason why he was so effective.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jul 4, 2018 13:24:07 GMT -5
In fairness, the two times he has been used as a reliever in the playoffs, he’s been great. They were years apart (career bookends), but for whatever reason he seems like a different pitcher in that situation. I’m not a firm believer in a pitcher being hopeless and staying that way in the playoffs (Clemens comes to mind), because I believe in regression. My inclination is to keep him in the rotation come playoff time. Certainly during the regular season. But an adjustment might be necessary if he has a stinker but they advance anyway. Hell, they could even try a TB-style or piggyback him in after 3 innings. And in those two years in the bullpen, he barely pitched in each season so he was probably much more rested. That could easily skew everyone's opinion since it could be the precise reason why he was so effective. That’s an excellent point.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 4, 2018 14:08:32 GMT -5
I don't think he likes Boston, particularly the media. But he wouldn't get nearly the money he's making if he hit the market, so he's staying. We just have to hope he pulls a Sabathia and re-invents himself as the decline in his stuff continues.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 4, 2018 14:42:34 GMT -5
I'm interested to see how he keeps pitching. I still worry about his elbow. Velocity is down.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 4, 2018 14:47:37 GMT -5
I'm interested to see how he keeps pitching. I still worry about his elbow. Velocity is down. He is getting older and decline might be setting in. It might not be injury related.
|
|
|
Post by tizzle on Jul 4, 2018 21:10:51 GMT -5
58 IP as a starter in the postseason in his career isn't a small sample size. He has a 5.74 ERA in those starts, and it's fair to characterize that as a guy who has not been a good starting Pitcher in those circumstances.
You could try to call his 15.1 IP as a reliever in the post-season fluky, I suppose. But it seems like the question is do you want to find out if it's something that he does better, for whatever reason, or just stick with what has clearly not worked so far?
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Jul 4, 2018 23:25:54 GMT -5
I would love to see price in the bullpen for the playoffs. The less time he has to think about being in a game, the better he will pitch.
Plus, we really need an 8th inning guy badly!
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jul 5, 2018 4:17:15 GMT -5
58 IP as a starter in the postseason in his career isn't a small sample size. He has a 5.74 ERA in those starts, and it's fair to characterize that as a guy who has not been a good starting Pitcher in those circumstances. You could try to call his 15.1 IP as a reliever in the post-season fluky, I suppose. But it seems like the question is do you want to find out if it's something that he does better, for whatever reason, or just stick with what has clearly not worked so far? Eh, nine starts really is a pretty small sample, one in which a handful of bad starts can skew the overall record. His postseason peripherals are also pretty good-- Price also has a career 3.61 xFIP and 3.13 SIERA in his career 73.1 postseason innings, which are very much in line with his overall career numbers. I don't think it's fair at all to conclude that he is a meaningfully worse starting pitcher in the playoffs, especially in light of the substantial evidence that he is otherwise one of their four best starting pitchers.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jul 5, 2018 8:33:33 GMT -5
Another part of Price's postseason struggles is related to how long his managers have ridden him in postseason starts. In his three 2015 playoff starts (the year when the "he struggles in the playoffs" narrative seemed to take off), Price allowed 13 runs; but only six in the first six innings of those outings. So, a 3.00 ERA in the first six innings, a 27.00 ERA thereafter. Like, imagine leaving your starter in to get this sort of beating the third time through the order: www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/KCA/KCA201510170.shtml. That's some John-Farrell-on-Rick-Porcello-level negligence.
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 5, 2018 8:36:25 GMT -5
Aside from getting owned by the Yankees has Price really pitched that bad this season? I'd say he's pitched rather well. Considering he's paid and on the books I'll take this guy now if he can pitch to this level or better for the next several years.
If anything, with a healthy E-Rod and Porcello, I'd have no problem moving Price to the bullpen in a playoff series vs. the Yankees. He seemed to take to that role well, but I also think he'll get another shot to prove himself this season.
I know Price kind of comes off as a D*** but I'm kind of one too so I find myself rooting for him.
|
|
|
Post by patford on Jul 5, 2018 8:57:33 GMT -5
How very strange that Price struggles against the Yankees the same way the excellent Houston bullpen does. It's almost as if the inside part of the plate is taken away and pitchers are forced to pitch to the areas of the strike zone where the Yankee hitters are most effective.
|
|
|
Post by terriblehondo on Jul 5, 2018 8:57:47 GMT -5
Give him the ball every 5th day.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 5, 2018 9:00:10 GMT -5
Yeah, I'm not really afraid of Price tanking in the playoffs necessarily. The only reason why I want him in the bullpen is because I think that's where the Sox are vulnerable.
Porcello and Eduardo are close talent wise these days to Price to warrant such a move. Roster construction wise it makes a lot of sense to put him in high leverage innings, especially if the Sox don't make a move bullpen related before the end of the month. Plus, Porcello and Eduardo do not have a lot of experience relieving versus Price who has more experience in the bullpen the past two to three years.
I've been posting on the trade forum for a couple of days about the 3 best trade candidates for the Sox in Familia, Soria, and Dozier. I realize there's a chance the Sox don't pick up one of these players, but I hope they come away with at least one of them.
The return of a healthy Stephen Wright would go a long way of helping the Sox put Price in the bullpen also. Big if though. So I guess it really comes down to how good Wright looks comes September or if the Sox get another bullpen arm.
If Wright can't make it through September and if the Sox don't acquire a arm, then you're really in a bind. At that point you're hoping for Thornburg to look like 2016 Thornburg or Pomeranz to look like anything close to what he was last year.
In a nutshell, I would be comfortable starting Price. I don't care about the past. I just wouldn't feel great about leaning on Barnes and Kelly in the playoffs in the roles they have now. I don't think you're good enough if that's the case. The bullpen needs at least one more arm back there that is capable of being just as good, if not better than those 2 players.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 5, 2018 9:04:53 GMT -5
In fairness, the two times he has been used as a reliever in the playoffs, he’s been great. They were years apart (career bookends), but for whatever reason he seems like a different pitcher in that situation. I’m not a firm believer in a pitcher being hopeless and staying that way in the playoffs (Clemens comes to mind), because I believe in regression. My inclination is to keep him in the rotation come playoff time. Certainly during the regular season. But an adjustment might be necessary if he has a stinker but they advance anyway. Hell, they could even try a TB-style or piggyback him in after 3 innings. And in those two years in the bullpen, he barely pitched in each season so he was probably much more rested. That could easily skew everyone's opinion since it could be the precise reason why he was so effective. That was kind of my thinking. That by the time the calendar hit October his heavy workload caught up with him. But in 2013 he only pitched 186.2 innings and the Sox (particularly Ortiz) whacked him around in the ALDS start he had at Fenway. I don't know if he has Sale's issue - that the workload catches up to him and he needs to be backed off too, or if there's more just beyond that. I mean, if I'm being totally honest, if Price is given the ball to start a playoff game, my confidence in him isn't exactly through the roof, but it is a narrative that can be changed, but he has to do it. If the Sox advance to the ALDS, then we'll find out.
|
|
hank
Rookie
Posts: 99
|
Post by hank on Jul 5, 2018 10:02:17 GMT -5
I'm interested to see how he keeps pitching. I still worry about his elbow. Velocity is down. He is getting older and decline might be setting in. It might not be injury related.
Something isn't adding up. He was throwing 92-94 earlier THIS YEAR, capped out at 89 vs NY. Decline doesn't usually happen like that. I was really hoping he could hold it together for the rest of the season and then opt out. Looks like we're stuck with him. I realize he had a full exam less than 2 months ago but it would not surprise me one bit if he is in fact injured now. Some people are focusing on the psychology of Price vs NY but the reality is he's trying to attack good hitters with 88-89 and he's getting blasted. Sale is throwing 98, that's the difference.
|
|
|
Post by dmaineah on Jul 5, 2018 10:13:46 GMT -5
What to do with Price?
Trade him to a contender (preferably in the American League). As a SP he can't perform in big moments of big games on the big stage. He'd completely blow up against the Sox in a playoff start.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 5, 2018 10:18:44 GMT -5
He is getting older and decline might be setting in. It might not be injury related.
Something isn't adding up. He was throwing 92-94 earlier THIS YEAR, capped out at 89 vs NY. Decline doesn't usually happen like that. I was really hoping he could hold it together for the rest of the season and then opt out. Looks like we're stuck with him. I realize he had a full exam less than 2 months ago but it would not surprise me one bit if he is in fact injured now. Some people are focusing on the psychology of Price vs NY but the reality is he's trying to attack good hitters with 88-89 and he's getting blasted. Sale is throwing 98, that's the difference.
www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?s_type=3&sp_type=1&batterX=0&year=2018&month=7&day=1&pitchSel=456034.xml&game=gid_2018_07_01_bosmlb_nyamlb_1/&prevGame=gid_2018_07_01_bosmlb_nyamlb_1/None of what you posted is true at all. Price maxed out at 94 mph in the last game he pitched against New York. In fact, he hit 94 mph in his last start 9 different times according to the brooksbaseball chart listed on the link I posted. He was regularly hitting 92-94 mph in his last start. I know a lot of people want to hate Price, but he has pretty good stuff still. His decline has come from being the 95-97 mph pitcher he was 3-4 years ago. Price was throwing that hard at Chris Sale's current age. He's just older. He appears to be really healthy in fact.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 5, 2018 10:56:38 GMT -5
What to do with Price?Trade him to a contender (preferably in the American League). As a SP he can't perform in big moments of big games on the big stage. He'd completely blow up against the Sox in a playoff start. And unless you're cool with the idea of the Sox having to pay for a huge portion of his salary while leaving themselves short a good starting pitcher (his numbers ARE good against everybody else other than the Yankees), why the hell would the Red Sox screw themselves like that?
|
|
|
Post by dmaineah on Jul 5, 2018 11:24:58 GMT -5
What to do with Price?Trade him to a contender (preferably in the American League). As a SP he can't perform in big moments of big games on the big stage. He'd completely blow up against the Sox in a playoff start. And unless you're cool with the idea of the Sox having to pay for a huge portion of his salary while leaving themselves short a good starting pitcher (his numbers ARE good against everybody else other than the Yankees), why the hell would the Red Sox screw themselves like that? I'm cool with it. Heck, trade Price & JBJ & Thornburgh to the Yankees. Replenish the farm system and still beat the Yankees in the playoffs! Yea I'm cool with it
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Jul 5, 2018 11:37:15 GMT -5
In his previous 9 starts the Sox were 8-1 and he only gave up 3 runs twice. How about we just let him pitch and if the Yankees light him up again while he pitches great against everyone else then he stinks vs the mfy. Maybe they have figured out some tells, maybe those hr's were only out in that stadium, maybe they cheated and maybe he psychs himself out against them.
Either way if he goes back to the guy he was for those 9 starts there is no real problem. Yeah were stuck with a bad contract but what can you do about that? Bitch about it for the next 4 years?
The hard question is how do the Sox approach future free agents when it comes to the pitching staff. A Chris Sale type deal doesn't come around often or ever and the Sox are terrible when it comes to developing pitchers. The staff was basically built via prospect trades from a deep system which isn't going to be there again for quite sometime. What I am getting at is if they shy away from signing top end 29/30 year old pitchers in the future where is a top end staff going to come from? So they have to take that risk from time to time and at the time we pretty much all loved it.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 5, 2018 11:44:32 GMT -5
And unless you're cool with the idea of the Sox having to pay for a huge portion of his salary while leaving themselves short a good starting pitcher (his numbers ARE good against everybody else other than the Yankees), why the hell would the Red Sox screw themselves like that? I'm cool with it. Heck, trade Price & JBJ & Thornburgh to the Yankees. Replenish the farm system and still beat the Yankees in the playoffs! Yea I'm cool with it I really have no idea if you're for real or a troll or a bot because your posts are so insane.
|
|
|