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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 1, 2018 15:54:22 GMT -5
We should be all in to repeat. If he’s staying. Gotta let Eovaldi and Kimbrel walk. Sign Britton and get the comp pick for Kimbrel Well, here’s the big question: does Kimbrel get a QO? It can’t be offered in consecutive seasons, so if he took it and stayed, they’d get a single year at 17.5M or whatever. That’s about $3M over what he’ll probably command in AAV. I’m not sure they’ll offer it. Seems like they would...or get nothing...but then they’ve gotta hope like hell he doesn’t take it. He could, bet on himself and pitch reasonably well (for him), and collect his 4/60 or whatever next year. If TR can get 2 years 30 million with incentives, and 7 million guaranteed, how in the world would Kimbrel take a one year 17.5 million deal? How would he be in line to get less than a guy coming off major surgery at 4 years 60 million? I think Kimbrel is getting a lot more per year than you think!
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 1, 2018 16:04:05 GMT -5
I'm not sure, but after last offseason, I don't know if you can count on teams being dumb anymore. The same reason why the Red Sox would let Kimbrel walk is the same reason why other teams would shy away. He's 30 and looks to be in decline and the decline happens really quickly with closers like him. I don't see him lasting another 12 years as he re-invents himself into Mariano Rivera. I see him out of the league when his fastball doesn't sit 95 anymore. Who wants to risk a 5 year deal on him? I'd be running away. I'd argue that Kimbrel is the most risky pitcher you could possibly sign to a big reliever deal. That he signs for over $50 million (to give us whatever comp pick that is), is not a given for me.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 1, 2018 16:08:09 GMT -5
I'm not sure, but after last offseason, I don't know if you can count on teams being dumb anymore. The same reason why the Red Sox would let Kimbrel walk is the same reason why other teams would shy away. He's 30 and looks to be in decline and the decline happens really quickly with closers like him. I don't see him lasting another 12 years as he re-invents himself into Mariano Rivera. I see him out of the league when his fastball doesn't sit 95 anymore. Who wants to risk a 5 year deal on him? I'd be running away. It's the same as it always is with the high-risk free agents: you hope he has enough value in the front end of the deal that you don't worry too much about the other end. I do agree that a fifth year for him is insane, no matter what. Thinking in the range like 4/$65-$70M than Kenley Jansen (5/$80M) and Aroldis Chapman (5/$86M) money.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 1, 2018 16:31:11 GMT -5
I'm not sure, but after last offseason, I don't know if you can count on teams being dumb anymore. The same reason why the Red Sox would let Kimbrel walk is the same reason why other teams would shy away. He's 30 and looks to be in decline and the decline happens really quickly with closers like him. I don't see him lasting another 12 years as he re-invents himself into Mariano Rivera. I see him out of the league when his fastball doesn't sit 95 anymore. Who wants to risk a 5 year deal on him? I'd be running away. I'd argue that Kimbrel is the most risky pitcher you could possibly sign to a big reliever deal. That he signs for over $50 million (to give us whatever comp pick that is), is not a given for me. www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=518886&time=&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=11/01/2018&s_type=2There is zero evidence that his stuff has declined one bit, yet you always keep talking about his fastball like its declining. We've seen this for 3 years, his control comes and goes. That is his issue, not declining stuff. We've also seen him bounce back and regain his control. He's actually throwing harder than he did his first three years. His stuff isn't the issue. I get not wanting to pay him, yet lets not act like its because his stuff is declining, it isn't. He was throwing 98 in October!
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 1, 2018 21:57:12 GMT -5
People will look at Price's 3.58 ERA for the year and project him on that basis.
But he had a 4.42 ERA in his first 19 starts, before he finished making a set of alterations. In his last 16, including the post-season, he had a 94 68 29 27 28 91 line, for a 2.59 ERA.*
I don't think we can expect that, but something closer to 3.00 wouldn't be an unreasonable expectation. That could be worth 0.5 - 1.0 wins.
*Even though 9 of those starts were against elite offenses -- 3 NYY, 3 Hou, 2 LAD, 1 Cle -- he also had 4 against Bal, Det, Mia, and that brings the average quality of opposition to just 4.60 R/G versus the AL average of 4.53.
His velocity also improved in the postseason, where he was sitting 93-94 in the WS clincher. If he regains that lost velo the way Verlander did (similar build and workhorse history, not to mention the ability to successfully tinker), I think he could very easily return to being a legit #1. And even more of the same is a serviceable 2. I do believe that he’s probably in that Grienke/Verlander/Scherzer class where he’s going to be able to adapt and remain successful, even if not totally dominant. He should be capable of performing like a top-rotation arm for at least 2 years, possibly through his contract. The Globe's 108 Stitches today had a long set of quotes from Bannister were he basically said that Price's photo was in the dictionary next to "pitchers who sustain their success by adapting."
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Post by patford on Nov 1, 2018 22:14:22 GMT -5
Huge ovation for Price at tonight's Celtics game. Nice to see. What impressed me was Price consistently hitting 94-95. Good hitters could not catch up with it when paired with his change. He was overpowering batters.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 2, 2018 11:15:49 GMT -5
Well, here’s the big question: does Kimbrel get a QO? It can’t be offered in consecutive seasons, so if he took it and stayed, they’d get a single year at 17.5M or whatever. That’s about $3M over what he’ll probably command in AAV. I’m not sure they’ll offer it. Seems like they would...or get nothing...but then they’ve gotta hope like hell he doesn’t take it. He could, bet on himself and pitch reasonably well (for him), and collect his 4/60 or whatever next year. If TR can get 2 years 30 million with incentives, and 7 million guaranteed, how in the world would Kimbrel take a one year 17.5 million deal? How would he be in line to get less than a guy coming off major surgery at 4 years 60 million? I think Kimbrel is getting a lot more per year than you think! I think he’s going to get an offer in line with Jansen. Hence, I don’t think he makes sense for the Sox. You’re confusing “what I think he’s worth” with “what I think he’s going to be offered.” There’s a huge difference between guaranteed $ and incentives. Rosenthal will be paid like an elite closer only if he is one. The QO is a guaranteed $18M. That’s too rich for the Sox, and probably a higher AAV than what he’ll be offered on the open market. It’s possible that he banks on himself by taking the QO and tries to line himself up for being the first $20M closer, on, say, a 5/100 deal, should he return to his previous HOF caliber production. I don’t think it’s *likely*, but it’s also probably a non-single-digit % chance.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 2, 2018 11:18:24 GMT -5
If Craig Kimbrel accepts a qualifying offer you can pick an avatar for me. I won't even make it an avatar vs. avatar thing. You can just pick it, and I'll keep it throughout 2019.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 2, 2018 11:27:48 GMT -5
If TR can get 2 years 30 million with incentives, and 7 million guaranteed, how in the world would Kimbrel take a one year 17.5 million deal? How would he be in line to get less than a guy coming off major surgery at 4 years 60 million? I think Kimbrel is getting a lot more per year than you think! I think he’s going to get an offer in line with Jansen. Hence, I don’t think he makes sense for the Sox. You’re confusing “what I think he’s worth” with “what I think he’s going to be offered.” There’s a huge difference between guaranteed $ and incentives. Rosenthal will be paid like an elite closer only if he is one. The QO is a guaranteed $18M. That’s too rich for the Sox, and probably a higher AAV than what he’ll be offered on the open market. It’s possible that he banks on himself by taking the QO and tries to line himself up for being the first $20M closer, on, say, a 5/100 deal, should he return to his previous HOF caliber production. I don’t think it’s *likely*, but it’s also probably a non-single-digit % chance. A one year deal is ideal for the Red Sox. They don't care what the budget is in 2019. They care about how much they have committed beyond that.
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Post by patford on Nov 2, 2018 12:00:39 GMT -5
If Craig Kimbrel accepts a qualifying offer you can pick an avatar for me. I won't even make it an avatar vs. avatar thing. You can just pick it, and I'll keep it throughout 2019. Shouldn't the Kimbrel talk be moved to some other thread ?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 2, 2018 14:47:35 GMT -5
If TR can get 2 years 30 million with incentives, and 7 million guaranteed, how in the world would Kimbrel take a one year 17.5 million deal? How would he be in line to get less than a guy coming off major surgery at 4 years 60 million? I think Kimbrel is getting a lot more per year than you think! I think he’s going to get an offer in line with Jansen. Hence, I don’t think he makes sense for the Sox. You’re confusing “what I think he’s worth” with “what I think he’s going to be offered.” There’s a huge difference between guaranteed $ and incentives. Rosenthal will be paid like an elite closer only if he is one. The QO is a guaranteed $18M. That’s too rich for the Sox, and probably a higher AAV than what he’ll be offered on the open market. It’s possible that he banks on himself by taking the QO and tries to line himself up for being the first $20M closer, on, say, a 5/100 deal, should he return to his previous HOF caliber production. I don’t think it’s *likely*, but it’s also probably a non-single-digit % chance. Telson I'm so confused. You acted like he wouldn't be worth the QO and we'd have to hope he didn't except. Which is crazy, we'd gladdly overpay for one year. Then acting like his AAV would be 14.5 million, then saying he'll get Jansen money, which is 16 million and that was two years ago. If your overpaying by 1.5 million to have only a one year deal that is great! I just don't see him not taking a long-term deal. Jansen last two years before his deal 1.4 and 2.8 bwar, Kimbrel 3.6 and 2.3 bwar. They both spent 9 years in the league and Kimbrel has 25% more bwar 20 to 15. The guy is getting paid. He still looks like a HOF pitcher to me.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 2, 2018 17:22:19 GMT -5
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 2, 2018 20:31:23 GMT -5
Apparently that day is today, because if the last few weeks are any guide, anything that ever happens to a pitcher is a result of pitch tipping and nothing but pitch tipping. It's so weird.
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Post by soxjim on Nov 2, 2018 21:23:46 GMT -5
How is this possible? The 1st base coach could only notice during the wind up, right? Or Price was tipping before he went into the lineup? Otherwise, the batter is looking at the 1st base coach while Price is already in motion to the plate?
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 3, 2018 8:26:01 GMT -5
How is this possible? The 1st base coach could only notice during the wind up, right? Or Price was tipping before he went into the lineup? Otherwise, the batter is looking at the 1st base coach while Price is already in motion to the plate? He probably noticed when Price adjusted his grip before the pitch started, which is the same thing that Kimbrel was doing. The runner on 2nd could see him use his knuckle curve grip. When Kimbrel fixed it, he was using his knuckle curve grip to start throwing his fastball and then switching it up at the last second.
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Post by patford on Nov 3, 2018 8:41:53 GMT -5
How is this possible? The 1st base coach could only notice during the wind up, right? Or Price was tipping before he went into the lineup? Otherwise, the batter is looking at the 1st base coach while Price is already in motion to the plate? He probably noticed when Price adjusted his grip before the pitch started, which is the same thing that Kimbrel was doing. The runner on 2nd could see him use his knuckle curve grip. When Kimbrel fixed it, he was using his knuckle curve grip to start throwing his fastball and then switching it up at the last second. Right, the key for the pitcher would be to change the grip while the ball is hidden in his glove as the pitcher goes to his set just prior to the pitch.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 3, 2018 8:46:51 GMT -5
Ironically, Kimbrel probably benefited some when he was dekeing his pitch grip and Houston didn't catch on yet. Imagine getting a sign that Kimbrel is throwing a curve and he throws a fastball instead. Absolutely impossible.
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Post by natesp4 on Nov 3, 2018 9:24:48 GMT -5
Is dekeing pitches not already a super prevalent thing in the MLB? I mean I remember being taught in babe ruth to always turn the ball over in our glove a few times before throwing so the batter couldn't pick up on you putting a curve ball grip on. And that's when our pitches were so terrible that it wouldnt have mattered anyways.
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